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Author Topic: Why trend reversal? -> basic technical analysis! trend lines is all you need :)  (Read 2459 times)
Wandererfromthenorth
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May 20, 2014, 07:09:58 PM
 #1

some ask: "why a sudden increase in price"? what's the news?

the reason is simple, and it has nothing to do with news!


Trend reversal was about to happen only if we had these conditions:

-Important breakout points broken and crossings of trend lines
-sudden rise in volume










Do you think it's a coincidence that the huge sudden spike for no apparent reason (no news) happens when two lines that touch several crucial points in the graph meet PERFECTLY for the first time ever?  Wink
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May 20, 2014, 07:13:15 PM
 #2

TA is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Kinda funny to see that yesterday very few wanted to buy around 440-450, but now people are fighting over almost $500 coins.  Grin

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rudius
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May 20, 2014, 07:17:48 PM
 #3

TA is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Kinda funny to see that yesterday very few wanted to buy around 440-450, but now people are fighting over almost $500 coins.  Grin

thanks for this thread. I m tired to read that TA doesn t work from newbies...

And to complete, traders move the market not the news. You could see some spike during news, it s juste the surprise. Traders absorb and move on.
bitcoinsrus
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May 20, 2014, 07:22:09 PM
 #4

TA is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Kinda funny to see that yesterday very few wanted to buy around 440-450, but now people are fighting over almost $500 coins.  Grin

I think people thought it was going down from sub 450.  I read comments on here about them saying they rather buy on an uptrend rather than on a downtrend (to protect their investment in case it does plummet or something).  I guess the ones who timed the 339 dip really must have had some self restraint (to wait pass 400)
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May 20, 2014, 07:25:39 PM
 #5

So, who's to say that TA isn't just a self-fulfilling prophecy? I'm not trolling here, just curious. It's quite a bit easier to predict the actions of someone if he has the same beliefs as you.
rudius
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May 20, 2014, 07:37:21 PM
 #6

So, who's to say that TA isn't just a self-fulfilling prophecy? I'm not trolling here, just curious. It's quite a bit easier to predict the actions of someone if he has the same beliefs as you.

of course it s just a self fulfilling prophecy. It only works because bears and bulls have some rdv points on charts. That s the only way to trade.
Fundamental is for investers, not traders.
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May 20, 2014, 07:48:20 PM
 #7

So, who's to say that TA isn't just a self-fulfilling prophecy? I'm not trolling here, just curious. It's quite a bit easier to predict the actions of someone if he has the same beliefs as you.
Why would you care about the why rather than the what if both amounts to the same? Are you a philosopher, or are you a speculator? Cheesy
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May 20, 2014, 07:55:28 PM
 #8

TA is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Kinda funny to see that yesterday very few wanted to buy around 440-450, but now people are fighting over almost $500 coins.  Grin

TA is mass psychology. When grouped together, humans move in somewhat predictable patterns. TA applies mathematical formulas to this. It doesn't guarantee anything, but it is certainly helpful if you know how to use it.
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May 20, 2014, 08:01:20 PM
 #9

TA is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Kinda funny to see that yesterday very few wanted to buy around 440-450, but now people are fighting over almost $500 coins.  Grin

TA is mass psychology. When grouped together, humans move in somewhat predictable patterns. TA applies mathematical formulas to this. It doesn't guarantee anything, but it is certainly helpful if you know how to use it.

While I agree that in most cases we can create methods of guessing what's going to happen based on the past, Bitcoin is still at the point where it goes through erratic changes. I think this is all just coincidence at this point.


 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 




















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bananaControl
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May 20, 2014, 08:06:14 PM
 #10

So, who's to say that TA isn't just a self-fulfilling prophecy? I'm not trolling here, just curious. It's quite a bit easier to predict the actions of someone if he has the same beliefs as you.
Why would you care about the why rather than the what if both amounts to the same? Are you a philosopher, or are you a speculator? Cheesy

Point taken  Roll Eyes


While I agree that in most cases we can create methods of guessing what's going to happen based on the past, Bitcoin is still at the point where it goes through erratic changes. I think this is all just coincidence at this point.

Though of course the overall trend is rather clear. But that is more a result of an awesome technology getting better and more widespread than of short term TA-astrology Wink
Wandererfromthenorth
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May 20, 2014, 08:07:33 PM
 #11

TA is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Kinda funny to see that yesterday very few wanted to buy around 440-450, but now people are fighting over almost $500 coins.  Grin

TA is mass psychology. When grouped together, humans move in somewhat predictable patterns. TA applies mathematical formulas to this. It doesn't guarantee anything, but it is certainly helpful if you know how to use it.

While I agree that in most cases we can create methods of guessing what's going to happen based on the past, Bitcoin is still at the point where it goes through erratic changes. I think this is all just coincidence at this point.
how can you say that line cross was a coincidence? what are the odds?

Also if you would have used the superior line in the graphs i posted for all your trades during this bear market (going fiat and shorting) you would have done perfect safe trades!
Also if you would have used the inferior line you would have guessed the $340 bottom flawlessly!

While I agree that in the very short term (days and weeks) bitcoin can be a little unpredictable, if you use basic technical analysis right the Bitcoin market is a trader's wet dream!!!
ranlo
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May 20, 2014, 08:12:34 PM
 #12

TA is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Kinda funny to see that yesterday very few wanted to buy around 440-450, but now people are fighting over almost $500 coins.  Grin

TA is mass psychology. When grouped together, humans move in somewhat predictable patterns. TA applies mathematical formulas to this. It doesn't guarantee anything, but it is certainly helpful if you know how to use it.

While I agree that in most cases we can create methods of guessing what's going to happen based on the past, Bitcoin is still at the point where it goes through erratic changes. I think this is all just coincidence at this point.
how can you say that line cross was a coincidence? what are the odds?

Also if you would have used the superior line in the graphs i posted for all your trades during this bear market (going fiat and shorting) you would have done perfect safe trades!
Also if you would have used the inferior line you would have guessed the $340 bottom flawlessly!

While I agree that in the very short term (days and weeks) bitcoin can be a little unpredictable, if you use basic technical analysis right the Bitcoin market is a trader's wet dream!!!

The problem is that news plays a major role in Bitcoin's rate of adoption and value. Good news increases both. Bad news (usually) decreases both. No chart can guess as to what news is going to be released, where it's released from and how it's going to affect the prices.


 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 




















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ampere9765
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May 20, 2014, 09:25:23 PM
 #13

how can you say that line cross was a coincidence? what are the odds?

I don't think it was a coincidence. Bulls have reason to point out the break of the down trend line. But are we looking at a $50 move? Or a $500 move? Bigger? The breakout alone is not so comforting looking at indicators. RSI is riding very high 4H. Hard to see a strong up move from here.
rudius
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May 20, 2014, 09:30:00 PM
 #14

TA is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Kinda funny to see that yesterday very few wanted to buy around 440-450, but now people are fighting over almost $500 coins.  Grin

TA is mass psychology. When grouped together, humans move in somewhat predictable patterns. TA applies mathematical formulas to this. It doesn't guarantee anything, but it is certainly helpful if you know how to use it.

While I agree that in most cases we can create methods of guessing what's going to happen based on the past, Bitcoin is still at the point where it goes through erratic changes. I think this is all just coincidence at this point.
how can you say that line cross was a coincidence? what are the odds?

Also if you would have used the superior line in the graphs i posted for all your trades during this bear market (going fiat and shorting) you would have done perfect safe trades!
Also if you would have used the inferior line you would have guessed the $340 bottom flawlessly!

While I agree that in the very short term (days and weeks) bitcoin can be a little unpredictable, if you use basic technical analysis right the Bitcoin market is a trader's wet dream!!!

The problem is that news plays a major role in Bitcoin's rate of adoption and value. Good news increases both. Bad news (usually) decreases both. No chart can guess as to what news is going to be released, where it's released from and how it's going to affect the prices.

News is just noise in a chart. Look at the big picture.

News have a fundamental value. Price could go down whereas news are great. It happens all the time in all markets. For example, S&P500 just made an ATH during the biggest crises of our time.

ranlo
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May 20, 2014, 09:32:32 PM
 #15

TA is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Kinda funny to see that yesterday very few wanted to buy around 440-450, but now people are fighting over almost $500 coins.  Grin

TA is mass psychology. When grouped together, humans move in somewhat predictable patterns. TA applies mathematical formulas to this. It doesn't guarantee anything, but it is certainly helpful if you know how to use it.

While I agree that in most cases we can create methods of guessing what's going to happen based on the past, Bitcoin is still at the point where it goes through erratic changes. I think this is all just coincidence at this point.
how can you say that line cross was a coincidence? what are the odds?

Also if you would have used the superior line in the graphs i posted for all your trades during this bear market (going fiat and shorting) you would have done perfect safe trades!
Also if you would have used the inferior line you would have guessed the $340 bottom flawlessly!

While I agree that in the very short term (days and weeks) bitcoin can be a little unpredictable, if you use basic technical analysis right the Bitcoin market is a trader's wet dream!!!

The problem is that news plays a major role in Bitcoin's rate of adoption and value. Good news increases both. Bad news (usually) decreases both. No chart can guess as to what news is going to be released, where it's released from and how it's going to affect the prices.

News is just noise in a chart. Look at the big picture.

News have a fundamental value. Price could go down whereas news are great. It happens all the time in all markets. For example, S&P500 just made an ATH during the biggest crises of our time.



But you feel that a chart would tell the future price? If so, why don't stock brokers just use charts instead? Why is there speculation if the chart gives all the answers?


 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 




















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rudius
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May 20, 2014, 09:33:05 PM
 #16

how can you say that line cross was a coincidence? what are the odds?

I don't think it was a coincidence. Bulls have reason to point out the break of the down trend line. But are we looking at a $50 move? Or a $500 move? Bigger? The breakout alone is not so comforting looking at indicators. RSI is riding very high 4H. Hard to see a strong up move from here.

Could you be more specific? You want a new ATH in a week so that you could say for sure it was a strong move?

Seeing reversals before others is how you trade, not the other way around!
ampere9765
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May 20, 2014, 09:37:57 PM
 #17

how can you say that line cross was a coincidence? what are the odds?

I don't think it was a coincidence. Bulls have reason to point out the break of the down trend line. But are we looking at a $50 move? Or a $500 move? Bigger? The breakout alone is not so comforting looking at indicators. RSI is riding very high 4H. Hard to see a strong up move from here.

Could you be more specific? You want a new ATH in a week so that you could say for sure it was a strong move?

Seeing reversals before others is how you trade, not the other way around!

Yes, so is it a reversal or a retracement? I am implying it is a retracement.

What do you want me to be more specific about? As I said in another thread, a break of $530 for me indicates that this rally has legs.
rudius
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May 20, 2014, 09:40:53 PM
 #18

TA is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Kinda funny to see that yesterday very few wanted to buy around 440-450, but now people are fighting over almost $500 coins.  Grin

TA is mass psychology. When grouped together, humans move in somewhat predictable patterns. TA applies mathematical formulas to this. It doesn't guarantee anything, but it is certainly helpful if you know how to use it.

While I agree that in most cases we can create methods of guessing what's going to happen based on the past, Bitcoin is still at the point where it goes through erratic changes. I think this is all just coincidence at this point.
how can you say that line cross was a coincidence? what are the odds?

Also if you would have used the superior line in the graphs i posted for all your trades during this bear market (going fiat and shorting) you would have done perfect safe trades!
Also if you would have used the inferior line you would have guessed the $340 bottom flawlessly!

While I agree that in the very short term (days and weeks) bitcoin can be a little unpredictable, if you use basic technical analysis right the Bitcoin market is a trader's wet dream!!!

The problem is that news plays a major role in Bitcoin's rate of adoption and value. Good news increases both. Bad news (usually) decreases both. No chart can guess as to what news is going to be released, where it's released from and how it's going to affect the prices.

News is just noise in a chart. Look at the big picture.

News have a fundamental value. Price could go down whereas news are great. It happens all the time in all markets. For example, S&P500 just made an ATH during the biggest crises of our time.



But you feel that a chart would tell the future price? If so, why don't stock brokers just use charts instead? Why is there speculation if the chart gives all the answers?

i didn t say that all is definitive. Speculation is a war between bull and bears. If you know how to read a chart, you know who is winning. Nobody know the price in 5 years not even the chart Wink

But the important info is "will the price go up or down from here?", When to make an entry and when to make an exit to minimize risks. Bitcoin price is well formed in a channel. Always expects the pricee to stay within except if it breaks. Meaning a new bubble is to be expected. If the channel is broken by the low, i will start to think differently. For example, litecoin price in $ broke his channel by the low. But since there is asics, i was expecting that (fundamental value). Now the chart tell us that LTC will go nowhere.
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May 20, 2014, 09:41:46 PM
 #19

how can you say that line cross was a coincidence? what are the odds?

I don't think it was a coincidence. Bulls have reason to point out the break of the down trend line. But are we looking at a $50 move? Or a $500 move? Bigger? The breakout alone is not so comforting looking at indicators. RSI is riding very high 4H. Hard to see a strong up move from here.

Could you be more specific? You want a new ATH in a week so that you could say for sure it was a strong move?

Seeing reversals before others is how you trade, not the other way around!

Yes, so is it a reversal or a retracement? I am implying it is a retracement.

What do you want me to be more specific about? As I said in another thread, a break of $530 for me indicates that this rally has legs.

So far, for the past hour or so we've been floating around 487-488. I don't think we're going to hit 530 for a while.


 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 




















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rudius
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May 20, 2014, 09:45:12 PM
 #20

how can you say that line cross was a coincidence? what are the odds?

I don't think it was a coincidence. Bulls have reason to point out the break of the down trend line. But are we looking at a $50 move? Or a $500 move? Bigger? The breakout alone is not so comforting looking at indicators. RSI is riding very high 4H. Hard to see a strong up move from here.

Could you be more specific? You want a new ATH in a week so that you could say for sure it was a strong move?

Seeing reversals before others is how you trade, not the other way around!

Yes, so is it a reversal or a retracement? I am implying it is a retracement.

What do you want me to be more specific about? As I said in another thread, a break of $530 for me indicates that this rally has legs.

?? the bear market was already a retracement! How many retracements of bear market do you see in the history of Bitcoin?
You make no sense. Sure, you could look for new higher high, but even if we pass 530, that wouldn t say that this is not a retracement. Just for you maybe. ANd as you are not george soros, i don t know why i will take this seriously.
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