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Author Topic: What happens when the block reward halves to 25?  (Read 12103 times)
dlasher
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September 26, 2012, 12:07:37 AM
 #61



While it's hard to know:
-- how much ASIC is actually presold,
-- how much will actually ship first batch,
-- the date those will ship on,
-- how fast people while get them online

Thinking out loud and using some easy math.

2016 blocks (or 100.8k btc) is generated between diff adjustments. Each diff adjustment is -about- 13-14 days

Let's assume 25Thash of ASIC miners get into the hands of the masses, on November the 1st.
Difficulty is 3.8M (assuming 10% jumps between now and then).

How much coin is mined at 3.8M difficulty?
day 1: 25TH will bring an extra 129 blocks into the network, or about 6466 coins. (adding to the 129 blocks from existing 25TH)
day 2: same
day 3: same
day 4: same
day 5: same
day 6: same
day 7: sometime in Day 7 (7.81 days in) you've hit 2016 blocks and diff is going up.  Diff is going up to 7M (based on 50TH network rate), and you've just killed any GPU miner who pays more than about 11 cents/kw/hr for their power.

You've also moved the reward drop date back from 11/30 to 11/15 or less, and mined about 45k extra coins.

So not "stupid" amounts of coin, but at $10/btc, that's still an extra $450k USD of coin you're expecting to sell, to .. someone?





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September 26, 2012, 04:30:12 AM
 #62

You really think BFL can deliver 25TH/s on "day 0".  Given their track record?  Hardly.  Try doing the same thing but make the 25TH/s spaced out over the course of a month. 
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September 26, 2012, 09:37:28 PM
 #63

You really think BFL can deliver 25TH/s on "day 0".  Given their track record?  Hardly.  Try doing the same thing but make the 25TH/s spaced out over the course of a month. 

No, I wasn't saying I think 25TH will ship on November 1st. I was using that as an example.
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September 26, 2012, 11:06:04 PM
 #64

You really think BFL can deliver 25TH/s on "day 0".  Given their track record?  Hardly.  Try doing the same thing but make the 25TH/s spaced out over the course of a month. 

Probably right on this one.

I'll just leave this here.. http://business.ftc.gov/documents/alt051-selling-internet-prompt-delivery-rules

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September 27, 2012, 12:11:00 AM
 #65





Beware of the block reward reduction!!!

I thought that was ASIC's reaching critical mass?!?!

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September 27, 2012, 12:19:38 AM
 #66


When i heard "there will never be more then 21million bitcoins" My first thoughts were:  You can always dig up more gold out of the ground, but you cannot make more bitcoins.

That would be a great analogy if only currency was based on gold anymore.  Too bad it's not.  If it were we probably wouldn't need bitcoin.

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September 27, 2012, 12:35:34 AM
 #67

That would be a great analogy if only currency was based on gold anymore.  Too bad it's not.  If it were we probably wouldn't need bitcoin.

You could make a currency based on OS/2 floppy discs.  I know they aren't making any more of those. Wink
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September 27, 2012, 01:11:35 AM
 #68

That would be a great analogy if only currency was based on gold anymore.  Too bad it's not.  If it were we probably wouldn't need bitcoin.

You could make a currency based on OS/2 floppy discs.  I know they aren't making any more of those. Wink

Hey, I still have most of my OS/2 2.0 floppies, 3.5" though, not the 5 1/4, bummer those would be worth something.

OS/2 is still halving, by the way.

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September 27, 2012, 01:47:23 AM
 #69


OS/2 is still halving, by the way.
when?
and will you become os1sam at that time?  Wink

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September 27, 2012, 02:48:57 AM
 #70


OS/2 is still halving, by the way.
when?
and will you become os1sam at that time?  Wink


Maybe eCSSam, since it has been renamed to eComStation.

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October 15, 2012, 12:41:53 AM
 #71

lot of factors coming into play. 

-popularity of ASIC mining
- assumptions that ASIC miners won't hold
- reward halving.

anyone who says they know what's going to happen
to the value of btc post reward halving
is just a speculator.

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October 15, 2012, 01:05:40 AM
 #72

lot of factors coming into play. 

-popularity of ASIC mining
- assumptions that ASIC miners won't hold
- reward halving.

anyone who says they know what's going to happen
to the value of btc post reward halving
is just a speculator.
Last I checked, this subforum was called "mining speculation"  Cheesy

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October 15, 2012, 08:27:58 AM
 #73

lot of factors coming into play. 

-popularity of ASIC mining
- assumptions that ASIC miners won't hold
- reward halving.

anyone who says they know what's going to happen
to the value of btc post reward halving
is just a speculator.
Last I checked, this subforum was called "mining speculation"  Cheesy
+1

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October 15, 2012, 04:40:14 PM
 #74


clip....

So not "stupid" amounts of coin, but at $10/btc, that's still an extra $450k USD of coin you're expecting to sell, to .. someone?




would be dumb, to sell.  they would hold if they were smart.

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October 16, 2012, 01:18:37 AM
 #75

What will happen is the value of bitcoins will slightly increase. Hoard them.
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October 16, 2012, 04:14:19 AM
 #76

What will happen is the value of bitcoins will slightly increase. Hoard them.

I'm so-so at predicting swings in the price of BTC but this one's so gimme, I have to.  Shortly before the split, people will buy up BTC to hold onto for the long term because eventually the price will go up significantly.  That means a gigantic price spike!  Then, when the blocks actually do split, the price will start to float upwards until too many decide that's "good enough" and dump off their coins.  A little sustained $0.50 dip after weeks of slow raising will spook everyone into thinking they missed the opportunity to sell off their BTC at top price so there will be a massive dump.  The miners waiting for the price to stop going up to sell and pay off their ASIC mining hardware debts will dump em off too.  That seems extremely likely to happen and similar things have happened in the past.
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October 16, 2012, 04:18:45 AM
 #77

What will happen is the value of bitcoins will slightly increase. Hoard them.

I'm so-so at predicting swings in the price of BTC but this one's so gimme, I have to.  Shortly before the split, people will buy up BTC to hold onto for the long term because eventually the price will go up significantly.  That means a gigantic price spike!  Then, when the blocks actually do split, the price will start to float upwards until too many decide that's "good enough" and dump off their coins.  A little sustained $0.50 dip after weeks of slow raising will spook everyone into thinking they missed the opportunity to sell off their BTC at top price so there will be a massive dump.  The miners waiting for the price to stop going up to sell and pay off their ASIC mining hardware debts will dump em off too.  That seems extremely likely to happen and similar things have happened in the past.

agreed that it's  a likely scenario - but a month later, where will it be? a month after that? we're in for a heck of a winter. it MIGHT stabilize by march, but since we know Avalon's are only shipping in late feb (for main production run) even that's unlikely, in my opinion.
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October 16, 2012, 06:35:47 AM
 #78

What will happen is the value of bitcoins will slightly increase. Hoard them.

I'm so-so at predicting swings in the price of BTC but this one's so gimme, I have to.  Shortly before the split, people will buy up BTC to hold onto for the long term because eventually the price will go up significantly.  That means a gigantic price spike!  Then, when the blocks actually do split, the price will start to float upwards until too many decide that's "good enough" and dump off their coins.  A little sustained $0.50 dip after weeks of slow raising will spook everyone into thinking they missed the opportunity to sell off their BTC at top price so there will be a massive dump.  The miners waiting for the price to stop going up to sell and pay off their ASIC mining hardware debts will dump em off too.  That seems extremely likely to happen and similar things have happened in the past.

This could happen, but I expect there will be a delay between the halving and the price floating up.  In that time there could be a dip that panics some people.

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October 16, 2012, 07:11:30 AM
 #79

What will happen is the value of bitcoins will slightly increase. Hoard them.

I'm so-so at predicting swings in the price of BTC but this one's so gimme, I have to.  Shortly before the split, people will buy up BTC to hold onto for the long term because eventually the price will go up significantly.  That means a gigantic price spike!  Then, when the blocks actually do split, the price will start to float upwards until too many decide that's "good enough" and dump off their coins.  A little sustained $0.50 dip after weeks of slow raising will spook everyone into thinking they missed the opportunity to sell off their BTC at top price so there will be a massive dump.  The miners waiting for the price to stop going up to sell and pay off their ASIC mining hardware debts will dump em off too.  That seems extremely likely to happen and similar things have happened in the past.
This is a crazy prediction. It is extremely unlikely that this will happen simply because it depends on a long chain of independent unpredictable events:

"Shortly before the split, people will buy up BTC to hold onto for the long term because eventually the price will go up significantly.  That means a gigantic price spike!"

There is no reason for people to buy a lot of BTC suddenly because of something that will happen eventually. There will be no gigantic spike for the reason you give.

"Then, when the blocks actually do split, the price will start to float upwards until too many decide that's "good enough" and dump off their coins."

Assuming the price rises, then maybe some people might sell, but maybe more people will buy. You can't predict when or if people will dump their coins and what effect it might have.

"A little sustained $0.50 dip after weeks of slow raising will spook everyone into thinking they missed the opportunity to sell off their BTC at top price so there will be a massive dump."

How can you possibly come up with $0.50? Why should such a drop "spook" a large number of people. The price of BTC has recently gone up and down by more than 0.5 BTC and nobody has been spooked into a selloff.

Anyway, your story is full of holes, as are all stories like this. It's an entertaining good story, but it is complete fiction. The problem with these stories that people invent is that they expect everyone to act similarly and simultaneously and they assume people will act irrationally. Furthermore, as I mentioned at the  start, they depend on a long chain of independent and unpredictable events. If the first part of the story is off by just a little, then the entire story is wrong.

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October 16, 2012, 10:20:40 AM
 #80

What will happen is the value of bitcoins will slightly increase. Hoard them.

I'm so-so at predicting swings in the price of BTC but this one's so gimme, I have to.  Shortly before the split, people will buy up BTC to hold onto for the long term because eventually the price will go up significantly.  That means a gigantic price spike!  Then, when the blocks actually do split, the price will start to float upwards until too many decide that's "good enough" and dump off their coins.  A little sustained $0.50 dip after weeks of slow raising will spook everyone into thinking they missed the opportunity to sell off their BTC at top price so there will be a massive dump.  The miners waiting for the price to stop going up to sell and pay off their ASIC mining hardware debts will dump em off too.  That seems extremely likely to happen and similar things have happened in the past.
This is a crazy prediction. It is extremely unlikely that this will happen simply because it depends on a long chain of independent unpredictable events:

"Shortly before the split, people will buy up BTC to hold onto for the long term because eventually the price will go up significantly.  That means a gigantic price spike!"

There is no reason for people to buy a lot of BTC suddenly because of something that will happen eventually. There will be no gigantic spike for the reason you give.

"Then, when the blocks actually do split, the price will start to float upwards until too many decide that's "good enough" and dump off their coins."

Assuming the price rises, then maybe some people might sell, but maybe more people will buy. You can't predict when or if people will dump their coins and what effect it might have.

"A little sustained $0.50 dip after weeks of slow raising will spook everyone into thinking they missed the opportunity to sell off their BTC at top price so there will be a massive dump."

How can you possibly come up with $0.50? Why should such a drop "spook" a large number of people. The price of BTC has recently gone up and down by more than 0.5 BTC and nobody has been spooked into a selloff.

Anyway, your story is full of holes, as are all stories like this. It's an entertaining good story, but it is complete fiction. The problem with these stories that people invent is that they expect everyone to act similarly and simultaneously and they assume people will act irrationally. Furthermore, as I mentioned at the  start, they depend on a long chain of independent and unpredictable events. If the first part of the story is off by just a little, then the entire story is wrong.


+1

thats right ..and one reason is that lot of miners arent in it for the short run and some don,t want $ they want BTC...

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