Monero (XMR) Speculation thread

[claimore]

Anyone is holding spartan mode until 0.01?

[1715139301]

1715139301

[1715139301]

1715139301

[nutildah]

Nutildah, these are obviously from someone trying to dilute the quality of posts in the Monero thread in order to make the coin look spammy.
They are annoying posts even though the message is pro-Monero.

Your reverse psychology has no effect on me Mr. Hussein. The agency has already prepped me for your sneaky maneuvers.

[fluffypony]

Nutildah, these are obviously from someone trying to dilute the quality of posts in the Monero thread in order to make the coin look spammy.
They are annoying posts even though the message is pro-Monero.

Your reverse psychology has no effect on me Mr. Hussein. The agency has already prepped me for your sneaky maneuvers.

Can we get GPG signed confirmation from both of you of the bet?

:-P

[rikkejohn]

A lot of noise is made about this coin, especially on the Trollbox at Poloniex.

Poloniex just happens to be the place where people trade it.

In terms of whether it will be a success, I can only say it won't, or at least it won't last long into the future.

I have not seen a coin with more shills.

Plus, DRK captured the high-end of that particular market. Before anyone says DRK is not really anonymous, I would like to pre-empt you by saying most people don't care about anonymous transactions. BTC is pretty anonymous anyway. I used it for a year on SR, never got a problem, even when my last payment ended up in the hands of the authoirties when SR was jumped.

Maybe the owners of it watch a lot of James Bond, but for most people there is no reason to buy into something that carries such a risk. When you shill and shill and shill, then you tell me that your product is not really worth my time.

[Brilliantrocket]

A lot of noise is made about this coin, especially on the Trollbox at Poloniex.

Poloniex just happens to be the place where people trade it.

In terms of whether it will be a success, I can only say it won't, or at least it won't last long into the future.

I have not seen a coin with more shills.

Plus, DRK captured the high-end of that particular market. Before anyone says DRK is not really anonymous, I would like to pre-empt you by saying most people don't care about anonymous transactions. BTC is pretty anonymous anyway. I used it for a year on SR, never got a problem, even when my last payment ended up in the hands of the authoirties when SR was jumped.

Maybe the owners of it watch a lot of James Bond, but for most people there is no reason to buy into something that carries such a risk. When you shill and shill and shill, then you tell me that your product is not really worth my time.

DRK provides enough privacy for 99.9% of people. If you're trying to fund a terrorist movement or buy weapons of mass destruction ( the cases where you would need "bulletproof" anonymity), no solution will ever be perfect. That's why I just don't understand who Monero is targeting. They won't get the privacy market, there will be tens of coins offering privacy by the time Monero achieves decent usability. The only reasons I can think of for wanting to cross the bridge from privacy to complete anonymity all involve breaking the law. So criminals? Dissidents in totalitarian countries?

[celestio]

A lot of noise is made about this coin, especially on the Trollbox at Poloniex.

Poloniex just happens to be the place where people trade it.

In terms of whether it will be a success, I can only say it won't, or at least it won't last long into the future.

I have not seen a coin with more shills.

Plus, DRK captured the high-end of that particular market. Before anyone says DRK is not really anonymous, I would like to pre-empt you by saying most people don't care about anonymous transactions. BTC is pretty anonymous anyway. I used it for a year on SR, never got a problem, even when my last payment ended up in the hands of the authoirties when SR was jumped.

Maybe the owners of it watch a lot of James Bond, but for most people there is no reason to buy into something that carries such a risk. When you shill and shill and shill, then you tell me that your product is not really worth my time.

It seems you don't know what you're talking about. You base the value of a coin on the amount of shill accounts one or two people make? -shakes head-

"I would like to pre-empt you by saying most people don't care about anonymous transactions." Gmaxwell and many others seem to greatly disagree with that. Most people using Bitcoin Think it's anonymous, I once did. They don't know it only has psuedo-anonymity, once a address is linked to a person, there is no privacy.

If the majority of Bitcoiners knew it wasn't anonymous in the way they thought it was, then they would stop using it. That's what also stops many private companies from using Bitcoin.

In a ever growing transparent world, where even your emails in your inbox are monitored(thanks google!), you need anonymity. It's not a want, it's a need. I don't understand how someone could not want to have some things private to them, especially their transactions.

[fluffypony]

A lot of noise is made about this coin, especially on the Trollbox at Poloniex.

Poloniex just happens to be the place where people trade it.

In terms of whether it will be a success, I can only say it won't, or at least it won't last long into the future.

I have not seen a coin with more shills.

Plus, DRK captured the high-end of that particular market. Before anyone says DRK is not really anonymous, I would like to pre-empt you by saying most people don't care about anonymous transactions. BTC is pretty anonymous anyway. I used it for a year on SR, never got a problem, even when my last payment ended up in the hands of the authoirties when SR was jumped.

Maybe the owners of it watch a lot of James Bond, but for most people there is no reason to buy into something that carries such a risk. When you shill and shill and shill, then you tell me that your product is not really worth my time.

DRK provides enough privacy for 99.9% of people. If you're trying to fund a terrorist movement or buy weapons of mass destruction ( the cases where you would need "bulletproof" anonymity), no solution will ever be perfect. That's why I just don't understand who Monero is targeting. They won't get the privacy market, there will be tens of coins offering privacy by the time Monero achieves decent usability. The only reasons I can think of for wanting to cross the bridge from privacy to complete anonymity all involve breaking the law. So criminals? Dissidents in totalitarian countries?

What you're not understanding is that transaction privacy is just ONE of the features Monero has and will have.

It is not our sole reason for existence, it is not the only feature we have.

If you want a one-trick pony, pick any of the scamcoins that exist and will exist. As for Monero? We're just making something useful, something useable. No more and no less.

[kbm]

A lot of noise is made about this coin, especially on the Trollbox at Poloniex.

Poloniex just happens to be the place where people trade it.

In terms of whether it will be a success, I can only say it won't, or at least it won't last long into the future.

I have not seen a coin with more shills.

Plus, DRK captured the high-end of that particular market. Before anyone says DRK is not really anonymous, I would like to pre-empt you by saying most people don't care about anonymous transactions. BTC is pretty anonymous anyway. I used it for a year on SR, never got a problem, even when my last payment ended up in the hands of the authoirties when SR was jumped.

Maybe the owners of it watch a lot of James Bond, but for most people there is no reason to buy into something that carries such a risk. When you shill and shill and shill, then you tell me that your product is not really worth my time.

DRK provides enough privacy for 99.9% of people. If you're trying to fund a terrorist movement or buy weapons of mass destruction ( the cases where you would need "bulletproof" anonymity), no solution will ever be perfect. That's why I just don't understand who Monero is targeting. They won't get the privacy market, there will be tens of coins offering privacy by the time Monero achieves decent usability. The only reasons I can think of for wanting to cross the bridge from privacy to complete anonymity all involve breaking the law. So criminals? Dissidents in totalitarian countries?

I'm not really sure what you guys are getting at here. Doesn't Darkcoin have a cap at 21 million coins (please correct me if wrong )? With Monero's 18.440 million, we can see that there's not such a major difference in the market caps.

At current prices, this gives Darkcoin a cap of $117.6 million. Monero would have $38.4 million. This is only 3.06x higher.

At current volumes, Darkcoin is at $249,803, and Monero is at $68,802. This is only 3.63x higher.

At current emission cap (which I think is where you're mistaking yourselves), Darkcoin still only holds a 4.57x higher market cap.

These comparisons aren't even an order of magnitude in difference .. and these markets are well known for coming up with orders of magnitude in very short timeframes.

Don't you see? Monero is marketing to the same people that Darkcoin is marketing to. It's been absolutely energetic on the markets since the first month, and has had a whole lot more interest than Darkcoin sparked the first three months of its existence.

Monero has picked up its own trading pairs, development is progressing at a fantastic rate, and it is gaining ground that many thought were out of reach for months. Darkcoin originally had the market, and now that same market is diversifying itself. This is something that sane and rational people do with software that's constantly under alpha and beta release.

[wpalczynski]

But see, you are making a mistake by applying reason to the situation which is clearly something the shills and trolls are lacking. 

Criticizing Monero technically hasn't worked well for them so the only other approach is to make it look like an amature pump and dump with these silly posts.

Doesn't there need to be any evidence behind the p&d claims?  Monero has had the lowest volatility of all coins, BTC included.

[kbm]

Maybe I am missing something but my understanding is that DRK was launched this year, so how can anyone be using it for a year on SR when SR was closed in the fall of 2013? Now I have heard allegations of a pre-mine. So it is possible that the pre-mine coins were used in SR, and consequently were seized by the US Government. I await for the auction of these pre-mine coins by the US Government, until then there are so many inconsistencies in the story here that only prudent course of action is to stay well away.

I think rikkejohn was talking about using BTC on SR, not DRK?

[ArticMine]

Maybe I am missing something but my understanding is that DRK was launched this year, so how can anyone be using it for a year on SR when SR was closed in the fall of 2013? Now I have heard allegations of a pre-mine. So it is possible that the pre-mine coins were used in SR, and consequently were seized by the US Government. I await for the auction of these pre-mine coins by the US Government, until then there are so many inconsistencies in the story here that only prudent course of action is to stay well away.

I think rikkejohn was talking about using BTC on SR, not DRK?

Yes that is true. He was referring to BTC, which is why I deleted my post. Still how is BTC anonymity is good enough for SR an argument for DRK over XMR? This is beyond me. I assumed incorrectly rikkejohn was trying to make some sense here.

[kbm]

Maybe I am missing something but my understanding is that DRK was launched this year, so how can anyone be using it for a year on SR when SR was closed in the fall of 2013? Now I have heard allegations of a pre-mine. So it is possible that the pre-mine coins were used in SR, and consequently were seized by the US Government. I await for the auction of these pre-mine coins by the US Government, until then there are so many inconsistencies in the story here that only prudent course of action is to stay well away.

I think rikkejohn was talking about using BTC on SR, not DRK?

Yes that is true. He was referring to BTC, which is why I deleted my post. Still how is BTC anonymity is good enough for SR an argument for DRK over XMR? This is beyond me. I assumed incorrectly rikkejohn was trying to make some sense here.

Yeah, it's a weird statement. How did the FBI determine that SR was even worth raiding if BTC was so anonymous? I'm sure they didn't go after them thinking they were only playing around with a few thousand dollars .. so I wonder what tipped them off that there were millions of dollars flowing through SR, and it was a worthwhile target to make some auction money  ?

[nutildah]

Criticizing Monero technically hasn't worked well for them so the only other approach is to make it look like an amature pump and dump with these silly posts.

Doesn't there need to be any evidence behind the p&d claims?  Monero has had the lowest volatility of all coins, BTC included.

Even including its drop of 20% over the last 10 days? Out of curiosity, how are you measuring volatility? XMR is more volatile than BTC because it is 99% backed by BTC. The only way XMR could be less volatile than BTC is if it constantly corrected for changes in BTC/USD, which is not what is happening. 

[rpietila]

Anyone is holding spartan mode until 0.01?

A certain Monero dev who joined me for dinner tonight, asked me about this. I told that I think it makes sense for me to sell when my Monero holding reaches between 50-70% of my net worth. Since it is currently a very small % of my net worth, this means also a price significantly higher than 0.01.

[ArticMine]

...
Yeah, it's a weird statement. How did the FBI determine that SR was even worth raiding if BTC was so anonymous? I'm sure they didn't go after them thinking they were only playing around with a few thousand dollars .. so I wonder what tipped them off that there were millions of dollars flowing through SR, and it was a worthwhile target to make some auction money  ?

I serious doubt the anonymity or lack thereof of BTC had much to do with the SR bust. Furthermore I suspect it would have happened just the same with DRK or XMR as the currency. We must keep in mind that cash based drug dealers are busted all the time, so in reality this is not that different. There are all sorts of techniques law enforcement can use that are not dependent upon the anonymity of money. The other issue is that all privacy crypto-currency solutions are ultimately based on the concept of a small needle in a large haystack. When one talks about terrorist organizations or large drug cartels this fails because in these cases we have a large knitting needle in a comparably small haystack. There is a reason why Mexican drug cartels had to use HSBC to launder their money. They needed a large haystack in order to try to hide their knitting needle.

[kbm]

...
Yeah, it's a weird statement. How did the FBI determine that SR was even worth raiding if BTC was so anonymous? I'm sure they didn't go after them thinking they were only playing around with a few thousand dollars .. so I wonder what tipped them off that there were millions of dollars flowing through SR, and it was a worthwhile target to make some auction money   ?

I serious doubt the anonymity or lack thereof of BTC had much to do with the SR bust. Furthermore I suspect it would have happened just the same with DRK or XMR as the currency. We must keep in mind that cash based drug dealers are busted all the time, so in reality this is not that different. There are all sorts of techniques law enforcement can use that are not dependent upon the anonymity of money. The other issue is that all privacy crypto-currency solutions are ultimately based on the concept of a small needle in a large haystack. When one talks about terrorist organizations or large drug cartels this fails because in these cases we have a large knitting needle in a comparably small haystack. There is a reason why Mexican drug cartels had to use HSBC to launder their money. They needed a large haystack in order to try to hide their knitting needle.

I agree that DRK, XMR, and BTC would have all likely provided the same situation, currently. What I was trying to point out was that .. well .. anyone can put up a website and sell drugs for money and schedule exchanges for cash/whatever. FBI may or may not go after them. In this case though, the situation was that exactly how much value exchanged hands was easily accessible and knowable. I wouldn't think FBI would be putting nearly as much resources into finding a small time exchange over a big time one (likely the reason this continued for so long? Or, perhaps there's an ulterior motive where they were collecting information .. or maybe just that it really was 'anonymous' enough and they had no idea what they were dealing with). Anyways, I'm saying that the possibility of finding out the exact amount of money flowing through the website allowed them to know exactly how much effort they should put into stopping it.

If SR was just a cash/drug drop system .. the first thing they would do is try to figure out how many people they should put on the case. If it's only a few thousand dollars, there would be much less people involved (if any at all), as compared to an exchange with millions of dollars involved. The ability to determine that so much money was accumulating in one place beforehand was just a bonus to them, because as you said above it was a needle that wasn't in a haystack. If, instead, the funds had all been going through an exchange or mixed transaction (be it cryptographically mixed, or tumbled through a mixer) .. well that would have likely hampered the investigation in that they would have had to place more initial resources into it from the start (where even then they might not yield good enough results). Maybe they'd take their time, searching out the service amongst whatever has hidden in it?

Maybe they'd locate the most common mixing services/exchanges and place them on a gag order for months .. slowly accumulating information the values of transactions and their sources and destinations by IP if possible (which would likely be supplied by the operator under order, and would circumvent the mixing service .. it would be hampered by TOR usage OFC). In this case though, that information was already accumulated and placed directly onto a blockchain as infallible proof that a transaction occurred and the details of exactly how much that transaction was worth (even if IP's weren't recorded and placed onto a database .. which many likely weren't because it used TOR) were easily tabulated. They didn't have to find sources, or rats, or even put someone under cover trying to infiltrate to find out how much volume they were dealing with. They didn't even have to put resources into funding TOR nodes and hoping that they were both exit and entry for enough people that they could paint their own picture. All they had to do on their end was confirm that the service was legitimate with a few purchases .. and then find location of the service.

They didn't have to ask the questions of: Well I see this website has a lot of traffic, and a lot of orders are placed .. but are they all legitimate? Could this site be making fake orders to create a 'haystack' so that the users of the site had some sort of plausible deniability? Or, in the very least, how can I be sure that this wont be a waste of my time and taxpayer dollars (however little that means to them) .. IE: is this an actual threat? Or my current favorite .. How much money do people spend on drugs, using magic internet money in 2014?

They didn't have to ask these questions because the entire business ledger was available for download in its complete form in under a day. This includes both the ledger they'd normally show in court, and the one that stays encrypted on your secretary's computer (or deep down under all the folders in their desk). The decision was effortless, because the exact magnitude of the offense was known beforehand.

And then there's the question of how did they find the service (though this isn't really the point I'm trying to make)? Wasn't the service using TOR? Did they catch their IP by serving up enough nodes, and then cross reference that with known wallet deposit addresses (or links to such addresses) to track them down? Or did they just find someone and 'ask' where it was based? This part isn't really relevant to my point .. which is that knowing the actual magnitude of the transactions was what would have signaled them to be investigated in the first place. That magnitude was revealed by the medium of exchange that was used. You would have a very tough time putting together an accurate picture with cryptographically-mixed values. You'd have a tough time putting together an accurate picture with non-cryptographically mixed transactions as well, but people are still going to ask (who have never met you, or even likely have ever heard of you): 'Where did this person get all this money from, and who is this person?' unless they go through a lot more work to keep the value hidden and not accumulated (something people tend to do naturally with money -- so it's kind of counter-intuitive).

[drawingthesun]

I haven't been following recently, why do you think that Monero will continue to fall?

Because of stuff like this, which is a surefire tell of a coin that cannot gain traction on its own merits:

What you guys think about the rest of cryptonote coins?

There are no other cryptonote coins in this topic because Monero is the best!

For those who say that no one should compare XMR with anything else - you are right! Let me shake your hands!

Oh sir! Hope someday I will shake your hand but until that time I must to say that there is nothing better then Monero.

Plus the fact that it has very little presence or use outside of this thread or Poloniex.

Thanks. So it it seems you think Monero will fall due to these odd newbie accounts.

Monero will gain traction, several core parts of the dust need to be worked on, there is now an official GUI in the works, the database and QoS are all being worked on too.

I believe that there is already enough people that take privacy really seriously that all we need is to help them find out about Monero. Remember most people still think all the alt coins are garbage and that none offer anything of value.

[smooth]

Anyone is holding spartan mode until 0.01?

I have no intention of selling based on price until much higher than 0.01. Other developments might change my mind, but not price.

[celestio]

Criticizing Monero technically hasn't worked well for them so the only other approach is to make it look like an amature pump and dump with these silly posts.

Doesn't there need to be any evidence behind the p&d claims?   Monero has had the lowest volatility of all coins, BTC included.

Even including its drop of 20% over the last 10 days? Out of curiosity, how are you measuring volatility? XMR is more volatile than BTC because it is 99% backed by BTC. The only way XMR could be less volatile than BTC is if it constantly corrected for changes in BTC/USD, which is not what is happening.  

I remember Bitcoin dropping more than 90% because of a hacker messing with one exchange(MtGox) a few years ago. Then Bitcoin dropped 50% when MtGox when Bankrupt this year along with the China news and Mr Willy, I won't even bother to name the other dozen or so times Bitcoin dropped more than 20% since 2010, you get the driff. It seems you simply have an agenda..

[rikkejohn]

A lot of noise is made about this coin, especially on the Trollbox at Poloniex.

Poloniex just happens to be the place where people trade it.

In terms of whether it will be a success, I can only say it won't, or at least it won't last long into the future.

I have not seen a coin with more shills.

Plus, DRK captured the high-end of that particular market. Before anyone says DRK is not really anonymous, I would like to pre-empt you by saying most people don't care about anonymous transactions. BTC is pretty anonymous anyway. I used it for a year on SR, never got a problem, even when my last payment ended up in the hands of the authoirties when SR was jumped.

Maybe the owners of it watch a lot of James Bond, but for most people there is no reason to buy into something that carries such a risk. When you shill and shill and shill, then you tell me that your product is not really worth my time.

It seems you don't know what you're talking about. You base the value of a coin on the amount of shill accounts one or two people make? -shakes head-

"I would like to pre-empt you by saying most people don't care about anonymous transactions." Gmaxwell and many others seem to greatly disagree with that. Most people using Bitcoin Think it's anonymous, I once did. They don't know it only has psuedo-anonymity, once a address is linked to a person, there is no privacy.

If the majority of Bitcoiners knew it wasn't anonymous in the way they thought it was, then they would stop using it. That's what also stops many private companies from using Bitcoin.

In a ever growing transparent world, where even your emails in your inbox are monitored(thanks google!), you need anonymity. It's not a want, it's a need. I don't understand how someone could not want to have some things private to them, especially their transactions.

Some nice assertions, well done.