Monero (XMR) Speculation thread

[drawingthesun]

So are the 0.01 days over? Any chance they'll return?

[drawingthesun]

I'm speculating I will continue to remain correct and Monero will continue to fall like gentle pee on your heads.

Should have invested in a coin that was meant to be used for the long-haul and not just as a high-risk investment vehicle.

I haven't been following recently, why do you think that Monero will continue to fall?

It's a very strong coin, and it could easily replace litecoin.

[JohnyMonero]

I'm speculating I will continue to remain correct and Monero will continue to fall like gentle pee on your heads.

Should have invested in a coin that was meant to be used for the long-haul and not just as a high-risk investment vehicle.

I haven't been following recently, why do you think that Monero will continue to fall?

I have no idea how Monero can fall! It is impossible. Monero is the best!!!

[mineshaft]

What you guys think about the rest of cryptonote coins?

There are no other cryptonote coins in this topic because Monero is the best!

[bingopoint]

What you guys think about the rest of cryptonote coins?

There are no other cryptonote coins in this topic because Monero is the best!

Monero is so amazing that there is no reason to compare it!

[Achile$]

For those who say that no one should compare XMR with anything else - you are right! Let me shake your hands!

[coinamigo]

For those who say that no one should compare XMR with anything else - you are right! Let me shake your hands!

Oh sir! Hope someday I will shake your hand but until that time I must to say that there is nothing better then Monero.

[thefunkybits]

Hi folks, check out my idea for twitter petitioning Cryptsy on Monero (XMR)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=731365.0

[openyourmind]

Hi folks, check out my idea for twitter petitioning Cryptsy on Monero (XMR)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=731365.0

Funny that huge and profitable alternative currency like XMR need for twitter reposting to say "Hello World!"

[thefunkybits]

Hi folks, check out my idea for twitter petitioning Cryptsy on Monero (XMR)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=731365.0

Funny that huge and profitable alternative currency like XMR need for twitter reposting to say "Hello World!"

It's just an idea, it certainly wouldn't hurt our cause and could prove the strength of our community to the site.

[Rinndaranaur]

Hi folks, check out my idea for twitter petitioning Cryptsy on Monero (XMR)
 
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=731365.0

Cryptsy administration use common sense not ignorance. They will accept Monero only if it become official and popular.

[openyourmind]

Hi folks, check out my idea for twitter petitioning Cryptsy on Monero (XMR)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=731365.0

Funny that huge and profitable alternative currency like XMR need for twitter reposting to say "Hello World!"

It's just an idea, it certainly wouldn't hurt our cause and could prove the strength of our community to the site.

Are you sure about that? I mean XMR reputation should solve this type of problems, not you and me.

[fluffypony]

I see the bizarre newbie shill accounts are trying this "Monero is the best!" thing again. No clue why.

[wpalczynski]

Criticizing Monero technically hasn't worked well for them so the only other approach is to make it look like an amature pump and dump with these silly posts.  Yeah, its a bit annoying having to read the noise but at the same time it should show you they are threatened and thats why they expand the effort.

I see the bizarre newbie shill accounts are trying this "Monero is the best!" thing again. No clue why.

[rpietila]

Criticizing Monero technically hasn't worked well for them so the only other approach is to make it look like an amature pump and dump with these silly posts.

Doesn't there need to be any evidence behind the p&d claims?  Monero has had the lowest volatility of all coins, BTC included.

[ArticMine]

In my books, at this point in the development of Monero the trend in market capitalization, is way more significant than the trend in price, as an indicator of the growth and acceptance of the currency. We could see price move sideways or even slightly downward while there is very significant growth simply because of the emission rate.

Good point. I've tried to make a metric that combines the price (aka final market cap) and current market cap metrics into one. Something like:

the cap of all the coins that have been mined + all future coins discounted to the present using a X% APR discount rate

If parameter X is reasonable, this should theoretically be the best metric, as both the current number of coins and the eventual number (probably infinite) have their biases.

Yes this would work well. X is a parameter that is market driven and will change as the coin evolves.

To keep it simple I am going to consider POW coins with a fair release (no premine / instamine / ninjamine) and with a fixed overall supply. I am also assuming the coin is not the dominant form of money in the market place. XBT and XMR are good examples in very different stages of evolution.  There are three types of players here: Long term players / investors, short term investors / speculators, and users. Users are not interested in the long term future of the coin. They see the coins primarily as an attractive way to either receive payment for goods or services or pay for goods or services. One should point out that two other important players: Those who are interested in the coin for altruistic / social / "make the world a better place" reasons, and miners. The first are essentially very long term players. For this reason I include them under long term players / investors.  They may leave; however if they see another coin that is better suited to meet their altruistic / social / "make the world a better place" goals. Miners on the other hand can fall into any category depending on their motivations. Satoshi mining XBT in 2009 is a long term player / investor while at the other extreme there are many miners who will mine a coin and promptly sell it. They are in reality users who provide a service to the network, get paid for it and move on.

X is perceived very differently by each category of market player. For users X is essentially infinite since they are not concerned with the future value at all, on the other hand for the long term players / investors X approaches zero as their primary concern is the long term viability of the coin. The short term investors / speculators will fall somewhat in between. The relative impact of each type of player in the market at a given point in time should then determine an estimate of X. Of course the importance of X diminishes as the inflation rate of the coin decreases. For XBT, at the present time, one can make a "price only" analysis as an approximation by neglecting the inflation rate during the term of the analysis and normalizing the eventual number of coins to the current number of coins; however for XMR such an analysis would ignore the impact of the users and short term investors / speculators and would likely lead to erroneous conclusions. It is also very important when comparing for example XMR with LTC, NMC or even PPC in order to predict for example how XMR would perform during a sharp rise in the BTC/USD rate, based upon the performance of LTC, NMC and PPC during previous sharp rises in the BTC/USD rate. One needs to estimate X for each coin during each of the previous sharp rises in the BTC/USD rate.

[Febo]

So are the 0.01 days over? Any chance they'll return?

I think at least to stay there will not happen this year, but it will next year. Temporary some news could push it there, but not fro long.

I see the bizarre newbie shill accounts are trying this "Monero is the best!" thing again. No clue why.

I think people make bitcointalk accounts to sell them when reach full member rank or latter. They just have to spam somewhere, altcoins and speculation threads are good place to do that.

[nutildah]

The trendline is negative, not positive.

This is not actually true, even though I also intuitively felt like that before doing the numbers.

Let's stop beating around the bush. We both know the outcome is fully dependent on where you begin and end your data set.

[nutildah]

I haven't been following recently, why do you think that Monero will continue to fall?

Because of stuff like this, which is a surefire tell of a coin that cannot gain traction on its own merits:

What you guys think about the rest of cryptonote coins?

There are no other cryptonote coins in this topic because Monero is the best!

For those who say that no one should compare XMR with anything else - you are right! Let me shake your hands!

Oh sir! Hope someday I will shake your hand but until that time I must to say that there is nothing better then Monero.

Plus the fact that it has very little presence or use outside of this thread or Poloniex.

[saddambitcoin]

I haven't been following recently, why do you think that Monero will continue to fall?

Because of stuff like this, which is a surefire tell of a coin that cannot gain traction on its own merits:

What you guys think about the rest of cryptonote coins?

There are no other cryptonote coins in this topic because Monero is the best!

For those who say that no one should compare XMR with anything else - you are right! Let me shake your hands!

Oh sir! Hope someday I will shake your hand but until that time I must to say that there is nothing better then Monero.

Plus the fact that it has very little presence or use outside of this thread or Poloniex.

Nutildah, these are obviously from someone trying to dilute the quality of posts in the Monero thread in order to make the coin look spammy.
They are annoying posts even though the message is pro-Monero.