rpietila Altcoin Observer

[rpietila]

Also, this thread is severely lacking in free lunches.

It is started by me, so everybody assumes that it is just normal, if not intended. Notice also the lack of pics and color.

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[rpietila]

Hopefully nobody bought QCN. Don't think it's going to rise again...

It was a typical pump&dump coin.

Monero made us happy. What's your shot term value expectation? I remember you said "I don't buy with 0.01 BTC price." What's the selling point for short term?

0.02 is unsustainable this year.

[tacotime]

Monero needs higher block time, at least 2 minutes like the regular Bytecoin.  It's an already unscalable coin with high storage requirements where pruning won't work.  Why make the problem worse with 1 minute blocks?  Instead of forking to fix this problem while you still can, the can is being kicked down the road to be ignored until it can't be changed.

Also, this thread is severely lacking in free lunches.  I made a call on XC that you would have more than doubled your money in a short time span buying it weeks ago in the thread.

Block time isn't as important to bloat, but rather the number of tx going on in the network and the number of outputs/inputs they have. The biggest issue right now is that the default node.js pool code creates very large amounts of bloats, likely bloating the blockchain 20 fold. We're working on patching the payment system for the pool now.

[aminorex]

XMR is experiencing the hash-rate feedback loop right now.  Stability at 0.002 failed because miners stopped selling.  Price rose so mining interest rose.  Assuming 0.004533 USD/minute for an EC2 C3.8xlarge instance which does 610 hps, 7% orphan rate, 440M difficulty, 16.2 XMR block reward, I see the marginal supply cost of XMR as 0.006, presently, which we are approaching rapidly.   0.02 would be sustainable if the marginal supply cost reached 0.02.

EDIT: Actually, I think the price rose a bit too quickly to be terribly stable:  There was no time for the weakly held mined coins which became profitable to sell at intervening prices to reach the market.  That means there's a possible supply back-log, so I would not be surprised by a retracement to the 004s, but I don't think it can last long unless difficulty were to collapse.

[damiano]

When this hits mintpal I am expecting a mega pump/dump.  Monero rose way to quickly on the voting list and it concerns me.

[celestio]

I'm expecting the opposite of damiano, a pump and price stability actually.

[Cablez]

Maybe I am missing something here but seemingly large amounts of paranoids are screaming about the near 51% mining of a single pool in the bitcoin world,  why do I not hear similar now that moneropool is running at 57% of the network?

Is the PoW scheme fundamentally different to BTC (obviously not algo)?

[drawingthesun]

Maybe I am missing something here but seemingly large amounts of paranoids are screaming about the near 51% mining of a single pool in the bitcoin world,  why do I not hear similar now that moneropool is running at 57% of the network?

Is the PoW scheme fundamentally different to BTC (obviously not algo)?

I've been doing some research into it, apparently one difference is that a 51% attacker cannot double spend.

More research is needed.

[RentaMouse]

Yes, I believe it isnt possible to double-spend to invalidate transactions in the same way as bitcoin. However there are plenty of other risks associated with one pool having a large percent of the network hash, we have already seen DDoS attacks against the big mining pools. Currently none of the mining progs support pool failover, so it can take out a large amount of net hash.

Different angle to think about: I'm still collecting data on network usage for the bitmonerod, but I can see that there may be a need for "super nodes" in the future to support a stable network for XMR users, and the only ones with much incentive to run a supernode would be the pools. Therefore ideally the network needs to support multiple pools to make that practical, centralising all the hash on 2-3 pools will shut down the others eventually.

[saddambitcoin]

XMR is experiencing the hash-rate feedback loop right now.  Stability at 0.002 failed because miners stopped selling.  Price rose so mining interest rose.  Assuming 0.004533 USD/minute for an EC2 C3.8xlarge instance which does 610 hps, 7% orphan rate, 440M difficulty, 16.2 XMR block reward, I see the marginal supply cost of XMR as 0.006, presently, which we are approaching rapidly.   0.02 would be sustainable if the marginal supply cost reached 0.02.

how do you make these calculations? i'm just curious. if this is the case, XMR is a solid buy all the way up to 0.006

[r0ach]

I think he forgot to take into account that botnets mine for free.

[smooth]

I think he forgot to take into account that botnets mine for free.

This is false. Botnets are a finite resource and therefore a cost applies. Opportunity cost if nothing else.

If botnets could really mine for free they would be 99.9% of every single coin. Even ASIC coins would be taken over, since free beats high efficiency with cost.

[aminorex]

seems like a good place to be if a btc correction occures no?

sure, value could go below production costs, but if so, i think it will only happen for a short period of time

I have to agree, but I think the benefit is lost if you rotate btc->xmr after the correction hits.  XMR is the only coin in which I have enough confidence to employ it for portfolio effect.  I'm about 12:88 XMR:BTC in my crypto now, and the share is increasing with gradual  consistency, as my confidence increases (although mostly as a result of happy trading outcomes, rather than burning fiat -- I still tend to burn fiat for BTC, but gain XMR mostly by rotations now.  I burn a tiny bit but much, much less BTC for XMR than I burn USD for BTC).

[rpietila]

I think he forgot to take into account that botnets mine for free.

Botnets are a finite resource and therefore a cost applies. Opportunity cost if nothing else.

True.

0.02 would be sustainable if the marginal supply cost reached 0.02.

False. At that price, MRO new mintage is worth BTC480 per day. If these don't find willing holders the price drops. Would be true in the following format:
"The marginal supply cost would reach 0.02 if that price were sustainable."

[Anotheranonlol]

What's the sentiment on BBR here? I know many in this thread hold XMR, but unbiased opinions would be appreciated. Seems to be have been in the shadows somewhat but gaining some traction recently.

Based on supply alone (400+% less than XMR) it would seem undervalued, no? The BBR emission curve seems preferable to XMR, in terms of the buy support that would need to come in to offset newly minted coins being dumped on market

[Keyboard-Mash]

The BBR emission curve seems preferable to XMR, in terms of the buy support that would need to come in to offset newly minted coins being dumped on market

I wouldn't be so sure about that.

Boolberry: 1464 days (~4 years)      6.373539000000 block reward     63% total emission percent 11701616.548800000000

Monero: 80% of the coins are mined within 4 years

Short term emission, BBR has a less steep curve .. but 17% difference after 4 years is not so large that I'd let it turn me away for long term holding of XMR. I mean maybe if I were considering short term holdings on both then I can sympathize with you somewhat, but I'm considering this more of a long-term kind of thing.

[nakaone]

What's the sentiment on BBR here? I know many in this thread hold XMR, but unbiased opinions would be appreciated. Seems to be have been in the shadows somewhat but gaining some traction recently.

Based on supply alone (400+% less than XMR) it would seem undervalued, no? The BBR emission curve seems preferable to XMR, in terms of the buy support that would need to come in to offset newly minted coins being dumped on market

well we are all bagholders aren't we? - I bought BBR as well as XMR preexchange and bought both projects when they went on exchange. BBR has a smaller community, but a brilliant developer, if there is place for a second ring signature project it will probably be BBR. it is not exactly a clone.

I think parity is reasonable - it lets BBR have around 1/4 of xmr market cap.

[superresistant]

What's the sentiment on BBR here? I know many in this thread hold XMR, but unbiased opinions would be appreciated. Seems to be have been in the shadows somewhat but gaining some traction recently.
Based on supply alone (400+% less than XMR) it would seem undervalued, no? The BBR emission curve seems preferable to XMR, in terms of the buy support that would need to come in to offset newly minted coins being dumped on market

Based on the supply, yes it is under-evaluated.
Moreover, BBR has awesome dev team. Great working GUI wallet. Better optimisations (blockchain, dust TX). Different algo.

[rpietila]

The BBR emission curve seems preferable to XMR, in terms of the buy support that would need to come in to offset newly minted coins being dumped on market

This is not a one-way street. If the emission curve is too slow, it may reduce interest in the coin, because high inflation is bad for the current holders. If few people see a point in holding, then the coin value stays low and it has a difficulty in maintaining traction.

If the curve is too steep, the inflation soon goes down, which is bad for network security and discourages the institutional investor phase as they might not find the coin legitimate enough if it is nearly fully mined when they wake up. (This is much more common than the "too slow" case, which I don't really see many examples of).

The optimum lies in between, obviously, and in my opinion MRO is pretty near optimal of the 2014 started coins.

[rpietila]

Can someone in the know summarize the BBR coin for me in 10 lines, please.