The Willy Report...What do you guys make of it?

[nowise]

Willy may have been buying up coins in order to make good on BTC withdrawal requests, not to pump the price.  Here is a detailed theory on the collapse of Mt. Gox that I believe explains most details including the details described in The Willy Report:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=497289.0

That is a work of fiction, it preaches assumptions with no evidence.

The Willy report uses logic and evidence. I think we should hold back with a story line until we find the truth.  It will be told someday.

Does anyone know of a good summary of leading theories on what actually went down in those offices of the sugar coffee leviathan?

[Peter R]

Willy may have been buying up coins in order to make good on BTC withdrawal requests, not to pump the price.  Here is a detailed theory on the collapse of Mt. Gox that I believe explains most details including the details described in The Willy Report:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=497289.0

That is a work of fiction, it preaches assumptions with no evidence.

The Willy report uses logic and evidence. I think we should hold back with a story line until we find the truth.  It will be told someday.

Does anyone know of a good summary of leading theories on what actually went down in those offices of the sugar coffee leviathan?

It is a work of fiction.  But it is fiction weaved into a plot line around the details that we know to be factual.  In fact it was cited in the Willy Report by the author who opined that it may be very close to the truth:




The story is about a young man who had a secret.  To keep it hidden, he kept digging until the hole was a billion dollars deep.  It is a speculative tale of a great bitcoin theft from MtGox in 2011 and the efforts that this man undertook to fix it.  The tale explains the bitcoin bear market of 2011, the explosive rally of 2013, delayed fiat withdrawals, malled transactions, and a bot named Willy.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1zdnop/peter_rs_theory_on_the_collapse_of_mt_gox/

I don't think Willy's purpose was price pumping...

[JorgeStolfi]

If the owner of Markus/Willy was an insider, there was no reason for him to go through the normal withdrawal mechanism to take coins out of MtGOX wallets. With that assumption, the absence of withdrawal records in the database is not surprising.

[Bit_Happy]

(re-post from another thread)

His final conclusion is probably wrong.
The BTC economy is growing very fast in many parts of the world. Therefore, it is possible to have huge price gains again, and this time they will be "real".

[Ron~Popeil]

(re-post from another thread)

His final conclusion is probably wrong.
The BTC economy is growing very fast in many parts of the world. Therefore, it is possible to have huge price gains again, and this time they will be "real".

I think we are seeing "real" growth right now. Most of the speculators have been on the sidelines for a while and will be back soon enough but there seems to be a lot more reason and less panic now. The great irony is that the MT GOX pumping might help in the long term by having all ready broken that 1200 psychological barrier.

[Dafar]

Soo.... the people who bought coins for $900+.... are they royally fucked?

[Bit_Happy]

(re-post from another thread)

His final conclusion is probably wrong.
The BTC economy is growing very fast in many parts of the world. Therefore, it is possible to have huge price gains again, and this time they will be "real".

I think we are seeing "real" growth right now. Most of the speculators have been on the sidelines for a while and will be back soon enough but there seems to be a lot more reason and less panic now. The great irony is that the MT GOX pumping might help in the long term by having all ready broken that 1200 psychological barrier.

The path to $1,000+ is much cleaner since we have been there before. 
^^^ I know that, but haven't thought about it recently, so thanks for the reminder.

The Willy Report?
If accurate, it is also "great irony" that Mark needed low BTC prices, but his 'buy-back plan' fueled a rally that would seal his fate in the worst way for most people.

[beetcoin]

(re-post from another thread)

His final conclusion is probably wrong.
The BTC economy is growing very fast in many parts of the world. Therefore, it is possible to have huge price gains again, and this time they will be "real".

at what level is it "real"? most of the last bull run was inspired by speculation... at what level is speculation healthy, and and what level is utility healthy? doesn't seem like there's enough infrastructure to push bitcoin up right now.. it's still speculation i think.

[JorgeStolfi]

Soo.... the people who bought coins for $900+.... are they royally fucked?

Frankly I have no idea why the price is 580$ now, rather than 58'000$ or 5.80$.  Who knows what it could be next week.

[Joshuar]

Soo.... the people who bought coins for $900+.... are they royally fucked?

Frankly I have no idea why the price is 580$ now, rather than 58'000$ or 5.80$.  Who knows what it could be next week.

The bull run in November has provided an enormous amount of Liquidity into the market. As well as opening up Bitcoin to many many new users. Before the bull run the price was around $250.

"Willy" did not push the price up to $1200, it was China, want to know why? When the Chinese Government started cracking down on Bitcoin, the price dropped from around $1200 to $900 rapidly. That means, it was the Chinese selling off that caused the fall, not "Willy", which means that it was China that was responsible for most of the huge price increase in November and not "Willy"...

As Bitcoin adoption continues, the price will increase further as more users find home with it, simple.

[Bit_Happy]

(re-post from another thread)

His final conclusion is probably wrong.
The BTC economy is growing very fast in many parts of the world. Therefore, it is possible to have huge price gains again, and this time they will be "real".

at what level is it "real"? most of the last bull run was inspired by speculation... at what level is speculation healthy, and and what level is utility healthy? doesn't seem like there's enough infrastructure to push bitcoin up right now.. it's still speculation i think.

http://coinmap.org shows what is "real". The Bitcoin ecosystem and infrastructure is booming throughout much of the world.
This isn't 2012 anymore...Welcome to the Brave New World. 

[keithers]

Soo.... the people who bought coins for $900+.... are they royally fucked?

Frankly I have no idea why the price is 580$ now, rather than 58'000$ or 5.80$.  Who knows what it could be next week.

The bull run in November has provided an enormous amount of Liquidity into the market. As well as opening up Bitcoin to many many new users. Before the bull run the price was around $250.

"Willy" did not push the price up to $1200, it was China, want to know why? When the Chinese Government started cracking down on Bitcoin, the price dropped from around $1200 to $900 rapidly. That means, it was the Chinese selling off that caused the fall, not "Willy", which means that it was China that was responsible for most of the huge price increase in November and not "Willy"...

As Bitcoin adoption continues, the price will increase further as more users find home with it, simple.

It wasn't China alone.  Buy walls fill up when other people are jumping in the market to buy (following each other like a chain reaction), as it is human nature to not want to miss the boat.   So theoretically, if Gox had some sort of bot that was continuously buying, the Chinese could have very well been following these phantom buy orders.

[Phinnaeus Gage]

(re-post from another thread)

His final conclusion is probably wrong.
The BTC economy is growing very fast in many parts of the world. Therefore, it is possible to have huge price gains again, and this time they will be "real".

at what level is it "real"? most of the last bull run was inspired by speculation... at what level is speculation healthy, and and what level is utility healthy? doesn't seem like there's enough infrastructure to push bitcoin up right now.. it's still speculation i think.

http://coinmap.org shows what is "real". The Bitcoin ecosystem and infrastructure is booming throughout much of the world.
This isn't 2012 anymore...Welcome to the Brave New World.  

Nice map! Just in time for Sturgis, August 4-10, 2014... Oh, wait...



You know what else isn't on that map? Jeff Ownby's (of BFL) business, thebarnpresents.com, nor is Bitcoin even mentioned on its website, located just a few miles east of where I live, off the same highway, 34/Ogden Rd. What to see the other domains that Jeff owns?



Now, tell me we aren't being fucked when I can show you 100's of business that these fuckers operate, yet don't even mention Bitcoin on their own websites that they've own for years, many prior to the advent of Bitcoin.

[calmindifference]

(re-post from another thread)

His final conclusion is probably wrong.
The BTC economy is growing very fast in many parts of the world. Therefore, it is possible to have huge price gains again, and this time they will be "real".

at what level is it "real"? most of the last bull run was inspired by speculation... at what level is speculation healthy, and and what level is utility healthy? doesn't seem like there's enough infrastructure to push bitcoin up right now.. it's still speculation i think.

http://coinmap.org shows what is "real". The Bitcoin ecosystem and infrastructure is booming throughout much of the world.
This isn't 2012 anymore...Welcome to the Brave New World. 

Lots of mom and pop businesses, hipster cafes and tech specialists, but in reality bitcoin transaction numbers are only up 2x compared to 2 years ago

[beetcoin]

(re-post from another thread)

His final conclusion is probably wrong.
The BTC economy is growing very fast in many parts of the world. Therefore, it is possible to have huge price gains again, and this time they will be "real".

at what level is it "real"? most of the last bull run was inspired by speculation... at what level is speculation healthy, and and what level is utility healthy? doesn't seem like there's enough infrastructure to push bitcoin up right now.. it's still speculation i think.

http://coinmap.org shows what is "real". The Bitcoin ecosystem and infrastructure is booming throughout much of the world.
This isn't 2012 anymore...Welcome to the Brave New World.  

Lots of mom and pop businesses, hipster cafes and tech specialists, but in reality bitcoin transaction numbers are only up 2x compared to 2 years ago

yeah was gonna say the same.. just because there are 3 times the amount of vendors, does not mean that bitcoin is changing hands 3x more. it's not even near mainstream yet. a lot of people know about it, but only few have some coins. of the few that have coins, even a smaller portion actually uses it.

[Bit_Happy]

(re-post from another thread)

His final conclusion is probably wrong.
The BTC economy is growing very fast in many parts of the world. Therefore, it is possible to have huge price gains again, and this time they will be "real".

at what level is it "real"? most of the last bull run was inspired by speculation... at what level is speculation healthy, and and what level is utility healthy? doesn't seem like there's enough infrastructure to push bitcoin up right now.. it's still speculation i think.

http://coinmap.org shows what is "real". The Bitcoin ecosystem and infrastructure is booming throughout much of the world.
This isn't 2012 anymore...Welcome to the Brave New World.  

Lots of mom and pop businesses, hipster cafes and tech specialists, but in reality bitcoin transaction numbers are only up 2x compared to 2 years ago

yeah was gonna say the same.. just because there are 3 times the amount of vendors, does not mean that bitcoin is changing hands 3x more. it's not even near mainstream yet. a lot of people know about it, but only few have some coins. of the few that have coins, even a smaller portion actually uses it.

.... it's not even near mainstream yet.
True, but.... Look at one of the biggest stories of the year:
Budweiser will be accepting bitcoin as payment at concession stands AND giving $10 in free bitcoins to all attendees of the Budweiser made in America Festival.
Thread here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=621674.0;topicseen
Article here:
https://coinreport.net/budweiser-partners-coinbase
"Budweiser has the potential to get a strong digital currency following as their event’s Concert Series runs between April and August, traveling through Wisconsin to California."

So it is undeniable that Bitcoin IS making huge progress.

[cuddaloreappu]

So bitcoin is long term investment from now on...no shot term huge rise...that reduces the thrill a lot

[Peter R]

Lots of mom and pop businesses, hipster cafes and tech specialists, but in reality bitcoin transaction numbers are only up 2x compared to 2 years ago

Bitcoin usage statistics have been growing right in line with bitcoin's market cap, closely adhering to Metcalfe's Law for the value of a network:

[Phinnaeus Gage]

(re-post from another thread)

His final conclusion is probably wrong.
The BTC economy is growing very fast in many parts of the world. Therefore, it is possible to have huge price gains again, and this time they will be "real".

at what level is it "real"? most of the last bull run was inspired by speculation... at what level is speculation healthy, and and what level is utility healthy? doesn't seem like there's enough infrastructure to push bitcoin up right now.. it's still speculation i think.

http://coinmap.org shows what is "real". The Bitcoin ecosystem and infrastructure is booming throughout much of the world.
This isn't 2012 anymore...Welcome to the Brave New World. 

Lots of mom and pop businesses, hipster cafes and tech specialists, but in reality bitcoin transaction numbers are only up 2x compared to 2 years ago

And, how many of those sites are gambling or tumbler entities?

[turvarya]

The report is meticulously detailed and the implications are crazy, kudos to the author for taking the time to prepare such a detailed post.

I do struggle to believe that the entirety of the Nov 13 peak is attributable to these bots alone though, purely because the other exchanges reached similar highs. Sure, their price was no doubt steeply over-inflated as a result, but I still think there would have been a reasonable peak regardless of bot activity.

Will be interesting to see how the current price of BTC reacts over the next few days, given that this effectively states that the base is unfounded.

The world of bitcoin is never uninteresting, that's for sure!

It makes perfect sense. MtGox was by far the biggest Exchange and so the others followed their trend. When there was a difference between the Price on Gox and other exchanges. People  just bought on other exchanges and sold on Gox. So the Price balances out on the exchanges over time.
Most of the time the Price on Gox was a bit higher than on other exchanges and it "pulled" other exchanges-price with it.