Just thought I'd drop in my tuppence worth of speculation - I can't put this in the Economics section because I haven't made 5 posts yet.
I wanted to guess where the bitcoin price was going to bottom out during this apparent correction we've been going through since ~Jan 10th. Looking at a few previous corrections, I made a table:
|Date||Days||Correction Price||Correction Size|
Based on the approximate correction minimums here:
Now, obviously the floor price goes up every time - it goes from 5.5 cents, to 20 cents, to the latest floor price of ~$2.25
. So what's the next bottom going to be? Well, if you take the previous floors and plot against date, you get this:
I've added a polynomial fit in excel, not because I think that represents the best function for the data, but it's quick and gave a good R2.
We can now make a rough guess as to the next floor price. If I guess that price is going to bottom out on 1st April, then using this fit, I estimate a floor price of $3.15
. Great. Probably totally wrong of course, but we'll have to wait and see...
I added a linear and a power series fit type as well, just to see what they predict:
|Next Correction Prediction||01/04/2012||810||$2.50 ||$3.15 ||$4.30 |