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Author Topic: Speculation: Bitcoin price minimum over next few months  (Read 1062 times)
cpt_howdy
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February 05, 2012, 02:32:58 PM
 #1

Just thought I'd drop in my tuppence worth of speculation - I can't put this in the Economics section because I haven't made 5 posts yet.
I wanted to guess where the bitcoin price was going to bottom out during this apparent correction we've been going through since ~Jan 10th. Looking at a few previous corrections, I made a table:

DateDaysCorrection PriceCorrection Size
24/07/2010203$0.05539%
10/11/2010309$0.260%
05/04/2011454$0.6541%
17/11/2011676$2.2593%

Based on the approximate correction minimums here:


Now, obviously the floor price goes up every time - it goes from 5.5 cents, to 20 cents, to the latest floor price of ~$2.25. So what's the next bottom going to be? Well, if you take the previous floors and plot against date, you get this:



I've added a polynomial fit in excel, not because I think that represents the best function for the data, but it's quick and gave a good R2.
We can now make a rough guess as to the next floor price. If I guess that price is going to bottom out on 1st April, then using this fit, I estimate a floor price of $3.15. Great. Probably totally wrong of course, but we'll have to wait and see...

I added a linear and a power series fit type as well, just to see what they predict:

datedaysLinearPolynomialPower
Next Correction Prediction01/04/2012810$2.50 $3.15 $4.30
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Fronnk
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February 09, 2012, 03:18:00 PM
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Will be interesting to see if you are correct.
cloon
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February 16, 2012, 12:45:40 PM
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Interesting point ure making...
floor-calculation could be an quiet good market-grow-indicator
but you got only 4 basisdata and im not shure, if the first (and the second) increases of value were already behaving like normal market. i think a few floors later, it could be quiet close to the real bottom.
clould you please explain your graph more? (1E-0.5 means e^(-0.5)?, whats R^2 for?)
am i right: you made a graph through this 4  floors and you will continue the graph until the 5th floor, and you say the prize will be 3.15, but why do you expect the floor on 1 march?


if you look at the nuber days between the recent floors: looks quiet exponential, means 5th floor should be in about 100 days...
do you think that if the prize gets close to your line, ther'll be a bottom?


forum moderator: pls move this thread into economics ->speculation

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cpt_howdy
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February 16, 2012, 01:09:10 PM
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R^2 = coefficient of determination. Google it  Wink

April 1st is just a guess - using the fitted function, the earlier the bottom occurs, the lower it is.

The E is a power of ten, not the natural log, e.
BitcoinWorld
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February 17, 2012, 09:52:59 AM
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Impressive post captain Howdy!  Do you trade equities or any derivatives because you sure have a good technical understanding of charts?
Alex Coventry
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February 18, 2012, 11:29:07 PM
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Well, we're at your predicted floor today.  It will be interesting to see how it goes.
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