Just thought I'd drop in my tuppence worth of speculation - I can't put this in the Economics section because I haven't made 5 posts yet.

I wanted to guess where the bitcoin price was going to bottom out during this apparent correction we've been going through since ~Jan 10th. Looking at a few previous corrections, I made a table:

*Date* | *Days* | *Correction Price* | *Correction Size* |

24/07/2010 | 203 | **$0.055** | 39% |

10/11/2010 | 309 | **$0.2** | 60% |

05/04/2011 | 454 | **$0.65** | 41% |

17/11/2011 | 676 | **$2.25** | 93% |

Based on the approximate correction minimums here:

Now, obviously the floor price goes up every time - it goes from 5.5 cents, to 20 cents, to the latest floor price of ~

**$2.25**. So what's the next bottom going to be? Well, if you take the previous floors and plot against date, you get this:

I've added a polynomial fit in excel, not because I think that represents the best function for the data, but it's quick and gave a good R2.

We can now make a rough guess as to the next floor price. If I guess that price is going to bottom out on 1st April, then using this fit, I estimate a floor price of

**$3.15**. Great. Probably totally wrong of course, but we'll have to wait and see...

I added a linear and a power series fit type as well, just to see what they predict:

| *date* | *days* | Linear | Polynomial | Power |

*Next Correction Prediction* | 01/04/2012 | 810 | **$2.50** | **$3.15** | **$4.30** |