Just thought I'd drop in my tuppence worth of speculation - I can't put this in the Economics section because I haven't made 5 posts yet.
I wanted to guess where the bitcoin price was going to bottom out during this apparent correction we've been going through since ~Jan 10th. Looking at a few previous corrections, I made a table:
| Date | Days | Correction Price | Correction Size |
| 24/07/2010 | 203 | $0.055 | 39% |
| 10/11/2010 | 309 | $0.2 | 60% |
| 05/04/2011 | 454 | $0.65 | 41% |
| 17/11/2011 | 676 | $2.25 | 93% |
Based on the approximate correction minimums here:
Now, obviously the floor price goes up every time - it goes from 5.5 cents, to 20 cents, to the latest floor price of ~
$2.25. So what's the next bottom going to be? Well, if you take the previous floors and plot against date, you get this:
I've added a polynomial fit in excel, not because I think that represents the best function for the data, but it's quick and gave a good R2.
We can now make a rough guess as to the next floor price. If I guess that price is going to bottom out on 1st April, then using this fit, I estimate a floor price of
$3.15. Great. Probably totally wrong of course, but we'll have to wait and see...
I added a linear and a power series fit type as well, just to see what they predict:
| date | days | Linear | Polynomial | Power |
| Next Correction Prediction | 01/04/2012 | 810 | $2.50 | $3.15 | $4.30 |
