94% correction? [46% so far]

[anu]

I have had an interesting thought lately. What if November to January was a brief correction from the 6 months long bear market which is over now?

If we assume the top is 7.22 and there is again a months long 94% "consolidation", the low would turn out to be 0.45 USD.

Food for thought.

Humanity had a similar consolidation 70000 years ago when we went down to less than 10000. Extrapolating with your method means we died out about 65000 years ago. Sounds entirely reasonable. Thanks for pointing that out. How stupid to think that we're now at 7 Billion.

[BadBear]

As Technomage said, why would any sane person sell Bitcoins in this manner when they could get more money selling them slowly? Either they can get more money another way selling them like this, or they don't care about money.

Maybe they know something.

[proudhon]

As Technomage said, why would any sane person sell Bitcoins in this manner when they could get more money selling them slowly? Either they can get more money another way selling them like this, or they don't care about money.

Maybe they know something.

[phelix]

I see this as a manipulation attempt based on the predictions of what will happen if $5.4 breaks. It doesn't make any sense otherwise, someone who simply wanted to exit the market with 40k BTC would've sold smaller amounts at a time, not all 40k at once. The market had no signs of crashing so the seller would've got a much better price by selling in smaller amounts. That dump was very intentional, the question is will people fall for it. I'm not falling for it.

edit: I am not sure it is a loosing operation. thinking....

Just like this?: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=52336.0

Zhoutong, could you let us know if any or what role Bitcoinica is playing here?

[teflone]

I see this as a manipulation attempt based on the predictions of what will happen if $5.4 breaks. It doesn't make any sense otherwise, someone who simply wanted to exit the market with 40k BTC would've sold smaller amounts at a time, not all 40k at once. The market had no signs of crashing so the seller would've got a much better price by selling in smaller amounts. That dump was very intentional, the question is will people fall for it. I'm not falling for it.

edit: I am not sure it is a loosing operation. thinking....

Just like this?: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=52336.0

Zhoutong, could you let us know if any or what role Bitcoinica is playing here?

MOST OF IT!!!!!!

[zhoutong]

I see this as a manipulation attempt based on the predictions of what will happen if $5.4 breaks. It doesn't make any sense otherwise, someone who simply wanted to exit the market with 40k BTC would've sold smaller amounts at a time, not all 40k at once. The market had no signs of crashing so the seller would've got a much better price by selling in smaller amounts. That dump was very intentional, the question is will people fall for it. I'm not falling for it.

edit: I am not sure it is a loosing operation. thinking....

Just like this?: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=52336.0

Zhoutong, could you let us know if any or what role Bitcoinica is playing here?

Nothing. The total forced liquidations today is less than 500 ฿.

[proudhon]

Just glancing at the daily bitcoincharts chart something like 75-90k bitcoins have been dumped today.  Does somebody know something?

[zby]

Just glancing at the daily bitcoincharts chart something like 75-90k bitcoins have been dumped today.  Does somebody know something?

Not exactly - there was a dump - then  someone was buying up, and now there was another dump.  It all looks like someone with really big money was just playing and checking our reactions.

[waspoza]

Just glancing at the daily bitcoincharts chart something like 75-90k bitcoins have been dumped today.  Does somebody know something?

Looks like those dumps have lesser impact on the price these days. Some time ago this amount would cause crash and panic, and today price hardly moving.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Just glancing at the daily bitcoincharts chart something like 75-90k bitcoins have been dumped today.  Does somebody know something?

Your favorite chart, the total bid depth is down about $200,000 in the last 24hrs also.

[N12]

Just glancing at the daily bitcoincharts chart something like 75-90k bitcoins have been dumped today.  Does somebody know something?

What do you mean? Do you think the sellers know something we don’t yet?

[SlaveInDebt]

So are we going to hell or not?

[NamelessOne]

So are we going to hell or not?

Everything seems to be in stasis... somehow...

edit: typo fixed

[FreeMoney]

So now someone rash who likes big movements has a ton of money sitting in Gox?

[SlaveInDebt]

So now someone rash who likes big movements has a ton of money sitting in Gox?

Free money?

[phelix]

I see this as a manipulation attempt based on the predictions of what will happen if $5.4 breaks. It doesn't make any sense otherwise, someone who simply wanted to exit the market with 40k BTC would've sold smaller amounts at a time, not all 40k at once. The market had no signs of crashing so the seller would've got a much better price by selling in smaller amounts. That dump was very intentional, the question is will people fall for it. I'm not falling for it.

edit: I am not sure it is a loosing operation. thinking....

Just like this?: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=52336.0

Zhoutong, could you let us know if any or what role Bitcoinica is playing here?

[... dump img ...]

Nothing. The total forced liquidations today is less than 500 ฿.

thanks for the info!

so there are other players at work... quite interesting

[N12]

Ah well, let’s bump it, then.

http://www.sierrachart.com/userimages/upload_2/1329182327128.png

You have served me well, uptrend. Thanks. See you next time.

[Maged]

Interestingly enough, if you compare the magnitudes of each rally and assume that they will drop as much as the first rally as a magnitude of the percentage, you get a "perfect" estimate of a 33% drop from our high of $7.22, bringing us down to $4.81.

...God damn 33% percent retracement rule.

Damn I'm good. Let's see if this holds...

[ineededausername]

Interestingly enough, if you compare the magnitudes of each rally and assume that they will drop as much as the first rally as a magnitude of the percentage, you get a "perfect" estimate of a 33% drop from our high of $7.22, bringing us down to $4.81.

...God damn 33% percent retracement rule.

Damn I'm good. Let's see if this holds...

Damn you're good

[grahamgreene]

Interestingly enough, if you compare the magnitudes of each rally and assume that they will drop as much as the first rally as a magnitude of the percentage, you get a "perfect" estimate of a 33% drop from our high of $7.22, bringing us down to $4.81.

...God damn 33% percent retracement rule.

Damn I'm good. Let's see if this holds...

VERY good!