P2POOL vs. Pooled Mining - something stinks here

[Frizz23]

I am mining with 4 x 6970 at 1680 MH/s.

That should give me about 1.1 BTC/day. Theoretically.

When using pooled mining with Deepbit or Slush that is also what I get. Practically.

Since I use p2pool I only get about 0.7 BTC/day. So only about half of what I should get (edit: 63.6363636363% for all those smartasses).


I installed p2pool properly. See for yourself:

Code:

2012-02-08 14:36:41.012000 Pool stales: 8% Own: ~7% (4-12%) Own efficiency: ~100% (95-103%)
...
Recent: 0.56% >1718MH/s Shares: 780 (63 orphan, 0 dead) Peers: 11 (1 incoming)

According to p2pools prediction we should find about 3 blocks a day:

Code:

2012-02-08 14:36:41.011000 Average time between blocks: 0.37 days

But actually we only find about 1 block per day (at least that is what the output of p2pool tells us).
See for yourself: https://blockexplorer.com/address/1Kz5QaUPDtKrj5SqW5tFkn7WZh8LmQaQi4

2012-02-10 : 0 blocks
2012-02-09 : 5 blocks
2012-02-08 : 6 blocks
2012-02-07 : 1 block
2012-02-06 : 1 block
2012-02-05 : 2 blocks
2012-02-04 : 1 block
2012-02-03 : 0 blocks
2012-02-02 : 2 blocks
2012-02-01 : 2 blocks
2012-01-31 : 2 blocks
2012-01-30 : 2 blocks
2012-01-29 : 2 blocks
2012-01-28 : 2 blocks
2012-01-27 : 1 block
2012-01-26 : 0 blocks
2012-01-25 : 2 blocks
2012-01-24 : 0 blocks


I could accept "we had a bad day" as an explanation/excuse. Or "we had a bad week". But almost 3 bad weeks in a row? Whom are you kidding?

As much as I love the idea of p2p mining - something seriously stinks here!

P.S.
It seems also other users notice this discrepancies: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=18313.msg737409#msg737409

[Prze_koles]

3 days ago or so, the pool had around 130GHash/s, so the average was about 2 blocks per day. Yea, maybe we're bit unlucky, but IMO everything is fine. Keep in mind that the hashing power is rising everyday and Average time between blocks for today is different than it was a week ago.

[Frizz23]

Keep in mind that the hashing power is rising everyday and Average time between blocks for today is different than it was a week ago.

Frankly - I don't care about averages.

I should get 1.1 BTC/day (which I did without problems using Deepbit/Slush). With p2pool I only get half of that.

And that not only today. Not only since a week. Almost since 3 weeks now. I wouldn't call that "Yea, maybe we're bit unlucky" ...

[thirdlight]

I started mining on p2pool at 12:00 GMT today with 1.4GH/s.
I stopped at 14:00.

I have received 0.64 btc. How much would I have got on DeepBit for those 2 hours?

[Frizz23]

If you can't handle variance, mine at a big pool! Simple problem, simple fix.

You call getting 1/2 of the reward I should get - over a period of almost 3 weeks - variance? You can't be serious ...

[heinz]

they are only getting 2 blocks per day compared to deepbits 5 blocks per hour or something. Yes, that is variance. Every third block found is from deepbit so they have variance, but it isn't as noticeable since they turn blocks over alot faster.

[eleuthria]

If you can't handle variance, mine at a big pool! Simple problem, simple fix.

You call getting 1/2 of the reward I should get - over a period of almost 3 weeks - variance? You can't be serious ...

Yes, he is serious.  Smaller pools require far more time to average out.  Bad luck on a small pool can be DAYS.  On deepbit/slush its a few hours.  Look at it another way:  Deepbit HAS had 24 hour periods with -30-40% luck.  That's a 24 hour period at ~3.5 TH/s.  About 25~30x the 3 week average speed of p2pool.  The equivalent of Deepbit's 24-hour -30-40% luck would be a -30-40% average for a 25-30 day period on p2pool.

[Sukrim]

If you can't handle variance, mine at a big pool! Simple problem, simple fix.

You call getting 1/2 of the reward I should get - over a period of almost 3 weeks - variance? You can't be serious ...

And you can't be serious claiming that 0.7 * 2 = 1.1!

[Frizz23]

And you can't be serious claiming that 0.7 * 2 = 1.1!

Smartypants. Sorry for simplifying. So it's not 1/2 - it's 63.6363636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636363 636363% of my previous earnings.

[thirdlight]

Did you calculate the increase in difficulty that happened twice in the past 3 weeks?

And that p2pool has found 3 blocks in 4 hours?

I guess this is the all powerfull pool-ops trying to cover their tracks, having been exposed?

Or variance.

This graph shows the huge difference in p2pool hashrate over the last few weeks.

This one shows difficulty changing.

Difficulty has increased, but not massively. The bigger deal is hashrate. 2 or 3 weeks ago p2pool was expecting to take longer than a day to find a block, now we should expect at least 2.

Before today we were about (very roughly) 2 blocks down from 24th Jan (your time frame in op). Now we are about 1 block down, with 8 hours to go (GMT).

Not far off "average" over a 2.5 week period.

Remember, you can't find half a block. So 1 block down & one block up are both "average"!

Don't take issue with my maths, I haven't worked out "expected" blocks for every day in the last 3 weeks using daily hash rate & difficulty data. I've guessed. if someone would like to do this accurately, I'd be very grateful.

[martychubbs]

3 days ago or so, the pool had around 130GHash/s, so the average was about 2 blocks per day. Yea, maybe we're bit unlucky, but IMO everything is fine. Keep in mind that the hashing power is rising everyday and Average time between blocks for today is different than it was a week ago.

OMG, you look just like Bruce Willis!

[martychubbs]

so, would P2Pool survive if the payout was  DGM or PPS and not PPLNS?  I would be happy to join P2p but i am not a full time miner, I like to play games...

[kjj]

I've been working on converting my miners to p2pool.  After seeing today's good luck, I wish I had more than just my prototype rig running.

Also, the whole thing is written in python.  If there is something wrong with it, either from a bug or as a scam, it is just sitting there in the source for everyone to see.

[DeathAndTaxes]

If you can't handle variance, mine at a big pool! Simple problem, simple fix.

You call getting 1/2 of the reward I should get - over a period of almost 3 weeks - variance? You can't be serious ...

Yes that is exactly what it is called.  Also it is more like 2 weeks (and 1 day) not three weeks. 

Another way to look at it is DeepBit has 3.5TH.  P2pool has 150 MH.  Deepbit is ~24x as large.   

Your rant would be like saying:
"I mined at Deepbit for a WHOLE 16 hours and I only got 67% of expected return.  You call that variance?  We aren't talking about 1 or 2 minutes but 16 (count em) 16 whole hours."

[spiccioli]

Did you calculate the increase in difficulty that happened twice in the past 3 weeks?

And that p2pool has found 3 blocks in 4 hours?

Make that 4 blocks.

Bam! 5.

I see a reference to a post of mine, so, yes, five today and counting ...

I remember last summer, I was mining on mineco.in, we waited for one week before solving a block, and receive a measly 0.20 or 0.30 payout.

Variance kills slow miners like me, PPS gets better the less hash power one has.

I'll keep mining here for some more time though, because I like the p2p way of mining which removes pools and pool associated problems: stealing of coins by pool operator, hacking of pool sites, DoS against pool, fees.

Regards.

spiccioli

[thirdlight]

Presumably the people who were whining about not getting 2 blocks a day will be giving refunding 60% of todays earnings to the magic block fairies?

Or keeping it, cos, you know, variance? 

[eleuthria]

Did you calculate the increase in difficulty that happened twice in the past 3 weeks?

And that p2pool has found 3 blocks in 4 hours?

Make that 4 blocks.

Bam! 5.

6. Are we having fun yet?

Just wait, I've seen this pattern before.  I give it a few hours before people accuse p2pool of faking blocks to lure people in...even though its not possible to fake blocks ;p

[gnar1ta$]

I remember last summer, I was mining on mineco.in, we waited for one week before solving a block, and receive a measly 0.20 or 0.30 payout.

Witnessed...and it sucked.

[westkybitcoins]

Did you calculate the increase in difficulty that happened twice in the past 3 weeks?

And that p2pool has found 3 blocks in 4 hours?

Make that 4 blocks.

Bam! 5.

6. Are we having fun yet?

Geez, what did you miners do, triple your hashrate overnight or something?!   

(Yes, I know, randomness, etc., etc., it's still kinda funny though.)

[Tittiez]

I started mining on p2pool at 12:00 GMT today with 1.4GH/s.
I stopped at 14:00.

I have received 0.64 btc. How much would I have got on DeepBit for those 2 hours?

According to DeepBit's PPS calculator.