Time is Running Out for Mark Williams Prediction of a $10 Bitcoin

[CryptoCurrencyInc.com]

Time is Running Out for Mark Williams Prediction of a $10 Bitcoin
http://bitcoinmagazine.com/13562/time-running-mark-williams-prediction-10-bitcoin/

[bryant.coleman]

Bitcoin at $10 will openly happen in extreme scenarios. Even the Mt Gox robbery could not make BTC to go below the $300 mark. Only if some previously unknown bug is found, which makes double spending and counterfeit possible, the BTC can go below $10 mark. And I don't think that such chances exceed more than 0.00000001% in probability for a 100-year return-period. 

[Cryptopher]

I'll fetch a knife and fork so that he can eat his own words. $10 requires a catastrophic action or series of actions, I don't think that is going to happen anytime soon, almost certainly not in the next month either.

[bluefirecorp]

The only chance of Bitcoin dropping to $10 is if an early investor tosses 2-4 million coins on the market all at once.

[Swordsoffreedom]

His prediction should have been that Darkcoin will reach 10 dollars a coin instead of Bitcoin
Just messing with him he made a calculation based on idiocy and needs to own up to it

[Cryptopher]

His prediction should have been that Darkcoin will reach 10 dollars a coin instead of Bitcoin
Just messing with him he made a calculation based on idiocy and needs to own up to it

It will be interesting to see if he posts a follow-up statement, and what exactly it will say. Will he merely re-iterate his thoughts but extend the deadline?

I think his argument is that he believes that Bitcoin as an investment is generally too risky.

[Swordsoffreedom]

His prediction should have been that Darkcoin will reach 10 dollars a coin instead of Bitcoin
Just messing with him he made a calculation based on idiocy and needs to own up to it

It will be interesting to see if he posts a follow-up statement, and what exactly it will say. Will he merely re-iterate his thoughts but extend the deadline?

I think his argument is that he believes that Bitcoin as an investment is generally too risky.

That probably is right but to me it sounded more like someone who was firing off his mouth without doing any research
I want to know if he will be humble and acknowledge his mistakes while admitting he does not understand it well enough
Or mention the reasons he believes it is risky and drop any price estimates.

[Cryptopher]

His prediction should have been that Darkcoin will reach 10 dollars a coin instead of Bitcoin
Just messing with him he made a calculation based on idiocy and needs to own up to it

It will be interesting to see if he posts a follow-up statement, and what exactly it will say. Will he merely re-iterate his thoughts but extend the deadline?

I think his argument is that he believes that Bitcoin as an investment is generally too risky.

That probably is right but to me it sounded more like someone who was firing off his mouth without doing any research
I want to know if he will be humble and acknowledge his mistakes while admitting he does not understand it well enough
Or mention the reasons he believes it is risky and drop any price estimates.

If he has any sense he will come out and admit that he was hasty with his valuation, but likely re-iterate that he still believes that it is extremely volatile. $10 is a silly valuation after how established it has become.

[bryant.coleman]

The only chance of Bitcoin dropping to $10 is if an early investor tosses 2-4 million coins on the market all at once.

No one is having that many coins right now. The wealthiest owner is believed to be in the possession of BTC980,000.

http://bitslog.wordpress.com/2013/04/24/satoshi-s-fortune-a-more-accurate-figure/

[drawingthesun]

The only chance of Bitcoin dropping to $10 is if an early investor tosses 2-4 million coins on the market all at once.

I'm not sure that many early investor coins exist.

1 million are Satoshi's.
1.5 million are lost from the first miners.

I know that the top members of the Bitcoin rich would be just over a million coins (excluding Satoshi.)

So if Satoshi and all the Bitcoin rich were to dump, that would be 2 million coins, this would also be a grand redistribution of wealth and I would imagine the price would recover fast and rise to a all time high too.

We can only dream for such a dump, but it'll never ever happen. Ever.

I think a dump of 100,000 bitcoin on bitstamp would bring the price to $10. However whoever did that would be throwing away 80% of their wealth for no reason, the price would again recover very quickly.

[Guido]

The only chance of Bitcoin dropping to $10 is if an early investor tosses 2-4 million coins on the market all at once.

I'm not sure that many early investor coins exist.

1 million are Satoshi's.
1.5 million are lost from the first miners.

I know that the top members of the Bitcoin rich would be just over a million coins (excluding Satoshi.)

So if Satoshi and all the Bitcoin rich were to dump, that would be 2 million coins, this would also be a grand redistribution of wealth and I would imagine the price would recover fast and rise to a all time high too.

We can only dream for such a dump, but it'll never ever happen. Ever.

I think a dump of 100,000 bitcoin on bitstamp would bring the price to $10. However whoever did that would be throwing away 80% of their wealth for no reason, the price would again recover very quickly.

totally agree
good synopsis

[marcus_of_augustus]

Small note I believe he refers to himself as ...

Herr Doctor Professor Mark T. Williams

just so there is no confusion as to who he exactly is.

[bryant.coleman]

1 million are Satoshi's.
1.5 million are lost from the first miners.

Satoshi may be owning close to a million coins. But they are showing no movement for the last several years. There is a strong chance that he might have lost the private key... Or perhaps, he might be even dead.

Talking about the first batch of miners, most of them sold their coins at very low rates in 2010 and 2011. They are definitely not in the possession of a large amount of coins.

[Buffer Overflow]

I predict that Bitcoin will trade for under $10 a share by the first half of 2014, single digit pricing reflecting its option value as a pure commodity play.

—Mark T. Williams

How this clown must be kicking himself. Of course, only behind closed doors. Yeah, you know what I'm talking about Mark.

LOL 

[MahaRamana]

The guy confirms his views :

http://www.coindesk.com/mark-t-williams-bitcoin-bulls-time-will-vindicate-prediction/

“grossly over-inflated” due to what he views as its “concentrated ownership, artificially limited supply and overhyped demand”.

Talk about solid arguments !

Shall we take them one by one ?
Concentrated ownership does not create scarcity by itself. It is the anticipation of future value that creates scarcity, not ownership concentration.
If there was poor future utility/value, people would sell wether they are few or many.
If the anticipation of future value is great, people avoid spending it - even if they are millions.
The big BTC owners are not keeping it for themselves to manipulate the price up. Instead, they keep it because they anticipate a higher value in the future.

Big owners have been mostly pushing the price DOWN, not up. They did so by diversifying away from BTC as the value was going up over the years and months.

Now the "artificially limited supply". What he means by that ? Again scarcity from ownership concentration ? Impossibility to create them out of thin air ?
I have no idea, but I see a market well supplied with lots of BTC sellers.

About overhyped demand, well, I find we are quite far from hype. The media is quite dubious about BTC and is happier to relay pessimism than optimism. There is more fear and misunderstandings than hype surrounding bitcoin, imho.

[Meuh6879]

The only chance of Bitcoin dropping to $10 is if an early investor tosses 2-4 million coins on the market all at once.

and early adopter is not idiot or fool.
they known that sell "regulary" is more benefict (for all and FIAT value) than sell all-in-one.

that's why Bitcoin is a more ... than banks system.

[DolanDuck]

Even in the worst case, if there's a huge sell of hundreds of thousands of btc,
the price will be recovered in no time because of the buy pressure that a such low value would trigger.

[marcus_of_augustus]

So June 30 is "Bitcorn Day"?

Edit: and did anyone ever get to the bottom of that money trail from the Bitcorn that was rumoured to lead back to JPMorgan?

[Trading]

I could never understand how that fellow received all that press. Anybody can toss out some predictions, making some wild guesses.

[BittBurger]

My signature.