The Weekend Dip Myth

[kjlimo]

These forums, especially, have become quiet. No threads asserting "LONG SQUEEZE", "STARFISH ON SELL", and the like seem to be popping up anymore.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=85687

Some user in that thread is shouting either PLUNGE or SQUEEZE all the time, depending on the drugs he has taken. Sometimes I even agree with him.

yet the question hasn't been sufficiently answered: where are the shorts?

the shorts are on Gox, in the form of sold bitcoins

I've still got my buy orders set for $2 a piece

[adamstgBit]

These forums, especially, have become quiet. No threads asserting "LONG SQUEEZE", "STARFISH ON SELL", and the like seem to be popping up anymore.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=85687

Some user in that thread is shouting either PLUNGE or SQUEEZE all the time, depending on the drugs he has taken. Sometimes I even agree with him.

yet the question hasn't been sufficiently answered: where are the shorts?

the shorts are on Gox, in the form of sold bitcoins

I've still got my buy orders set for $2 a piece

i was wondering why anyone would have bids so low.

[molecular]

These forums, especially, have become quiet. No threads asserting "LONG SQUEEZE", "STARFISH ON SELL", and the like seem to be popping up anymore.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=85687

Some user in that thread is shouting either PLUNGE or SQUEEZE all the time, depending on the drugs he has taken. Sometimes I even agree with him.

yet the question hasn't been sufficiently answered: where are the shorts?

the shorts are on Gox, in the form of sold bitcoins

that wouldn't be called a "short squeeze" then, though. no forced liquidations.

[adamstgBit]

These forums, especially, have become quiet. No threads asserting "LONG SQUEEZE", "STARFISH ON SELL", and the like seem to be popping up anymore.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=85687

Some user in that thread is shouting either PLUNGE or SQUEEZE all the time, depending on the drugs he has taken. Sometimes I even agree with him.

yet the question hasn't been sufficiently answered: where are the shorts?

the shorts are on Gox, in the form of sold bitcoins

that wouldn't be called a "short squeeze" then, though. no forced liquidations.

if they want to stay in the game they will buy back.

i got squeezed  a few months ago, on the way up to 15 i had sold at 9.xx, price kept moving up, so i bought back in.

[Stephen Gornick]

The chart shows the weekend dip green light is (barely) on:


 - http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zig30-minzczsg2012-10-31zeg2012-11-16ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzcv

But I'm going to sit this one out.  We're now less than two weeks from the "halving" event, which has never occurred before and drops the daily amount of new coins introduced into circulation by 50% in an instant.  So I'm wary of there being a spark that ignites a rally -- we haven't had that over a weekend for a few months, but when a weekend spike happens, it is sometimes brutal.

Additionally, from another thread:

Roughly two weeks ago we saw demand nearly double ... and then it increased about 50% after we relaunched and then this week is up (if you could fill all orders) about double that.  So more like 50K demand.

Any growth in FC4B looks like pissing on a forrest fire.  Honestly it is hard for me to explain where the demand is coming from but we simply can't handle it.  Not even close.  I hate to turn sales away but even if FC4B doubled we should still be "short".

[Stephen Gornick]

But I'm going to sit this one out.

Fortunately, I did sit that out.  That would have resulted in a loss as right after that post that the exchange rate shot up about 7%.

So that is a definite goose egg as far as the tally for successful trading when there is a Green Light.   I was wondering if an improvement to the Weekend Dip strategy would be to require some threshold of downturn before the "green light" would pop.  The last couple ones that were in a downtrend but by just a narrow degree (e.g,. under just a percent or two drop week-to-week) didn't pan out that well for those trying to profit from a Weekend Dip.   But ones where the degree is wider (i.e., a downtrend is more obvious) then trading the Weekend Dip strategy has been more profitable.

This weekend the Green Light is ON, however this too is one that I won't be jumping on.

The degree of downtrend is pretty small ($13.90 on Dec 14th, then $13.72 on Dec 20th., so just a 1.2% drop from one week's high to the next).   Not a visibly significant downtrend week-to-week.  The following chart makes is look like a downtrend but remember the granularity is the weekly high, and that drop, week-to-week, was just a bit over 1%.



- http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg30zigDailyzczsg2012-12-12zeg2012-12-27ztgOzm1g10zm2g25

Now this is a special weekend though.   The banks in Japan (where Mt. Gox receives its international wire transfers) are closed Monday and Tuesday.  So there is very little new money that will be arriving at Mt. Gox for what is essentially a four-day holiday weekend.   Could this give a reason for sellers to take out the bids (and thus with no inflows of new funds, leave buyers with no cash left to pick off the sell orders?)   It could.  Who knows.

Volume has been pretty low while at the same time the exchange rate has been slowly climbing.  We've seen this before and it oftentimes is followed by some big buys that cause a spike up in the exchange rate.

I'm just not confident that this Green Light really means go, so I'm going to stay on the sidelines as far as trying to profit from a weekend dip trade.

[S3052]

Overall, I like your perspectives in this thread a lot. I am still not 100% sure if the weekend dip is really something consistent that is useful to trade it.
Particularly the bank opening hours do not play a big role any more (I think). There is so much cash in the exchange. Look at the MtGox order book: The bids  down to 10 $ are almost 1,000,000 USD strong. So, it is just a matter of "buying appetite". People COULD, if they wanted, buy a lot of bitcoins with the cash they have on the exchange. But they don't do it. Perhaps weekend volume is low because people relax and do other things more than trading bitcoins?

[dopamine]

lets see what the price will be after the weekend 

[Stephen Gornick]

lets see what the price will be after the weekend 

The "weekend dip" isn't universal for every weekend.  At least not the winning pattern that had been recurring over and over.  The weekend dip "green light" would occur when there appears a downturn occurring into the weekend (i.e., at Wednesday evening (west) / Thursday morning (east) grab the 7-day high.  If that is below the previous week's 7-day high, then a downtrend was occurring and selling was more often than not a profitable move as during the weekend an opportunity to buy back would usually be possible.

That trend had a nearly perfect run.  Then it kind of fizzled,

This weekend did not get a weekend dip "green light" as on Wednesday evening (west) / Thursday morning (east) we were seeing a rising exchange rate, when comparing the two week's of 7-day highs.  That doesn't mean it won't dip, it just means the pattern that seemed to repeat isn't being predicted.

[Seth Otterstad]

LOL at this strategy.  It says to sell on wednesday and buy back on Saturday right?  -14%

[humanitee]

There were no indicators for a dip!
The strategy isn't half bad when you follow the rules.

[Stephen Gornick]

It says to sell on wednesday and buy back on Saturday right? 

Not if you read the post one above yours.

[notme]

It says to sell on wednesday and buy back on Saturday right? 

Not if you read the post one above yours.

Sometimes I feel like most people treat this forum as write-only.

[DobZombie]

Inoticed the weekend dip recently.  So I've been calculating, and thinking and starring at graphs etc.

the last 3 weekends could have netted anywhere from 10% to 28% (if you bought/sold at EXACTLY the right times)

So this weekend I tried it out.  Lucky I'm only toying with 10BTC while I get a feel for this, cuz this weekend has been a mindfuck!

Steady up for several days then the first increase I jump the first sign of a dip (at $22.50) then the fkn thing went back up too fast.  Now it looks like it's trying to compensate, but it's just fucking with me by bouncing between $23.00 & $23.80.

Anyhoo, I'm not really losing money if I fuck up while this upward trend continues.  I just don't have the same ammount of bitcoins I started with!

 

[deeplink]

Inoticed the weekend dip recently.  So I've been calculating, and thinking and starring at graphs etc.

the last 3 weekends could have netted anywhere from 10% to 28% (if you bought/sold at EXACTLY the right times)

So this weekend I tried it out.  Lucky I'm only toying with 10BTC while I get a feel for this, cuz this weekend has been a mindfuck!

Steady up for several days then the first increase I jump the first sign of a dip (at $22.50) then the fkn thing went back up too fast.  Now it looks like it's trying to compensate, but it's just fucking with me by bouncing between $23.00 & $23.80.

Anyhoo, I'm not really losing money if I fuck up while this upward trend continues.  I just don't have the same ammount of bitcoins I started with!

 

You didn't read the theory or even any of the previous posts, did you?

[Piper67]

Inoticed the weekend dip recently.  So I've been calculating, and thinking and starring at graphs etc.

the last 3 weekends could have netted anywhere from 10% to 28% (if you bought/sold at EXACTLY the right times)

So this weekend I tried it out.  Lucky I'm only toying with 10BTC while I get a feel for this, cuz this weekend has been a mindfuck!

Steady up for several days then the first increase I jump the first sign of a dip (at $22.50) then the fkn thing went back up too fast.  Now it looks like it's trying to compensate, but it's just fucking with me by bouncing between $23.00 & $23.80.

Anyhoo, I'm not really losing money if I fuck up while this upward trend continues.  I just don't have the same ammount of bitcoins I started with!

 

You didn't read the theory or even any of the previous posts, did you?

But the title says it all... weekend dip myth... what more can there possibly be to it? 

[molecular]

Inoticed the weekend dip recently.  So I've been calculating, and thinking and starring at graphs etc.

the last 3 weekends could have netted anywhere from 10% to 28% (if you bought/sold at EXACTLY the right times)

So this weekend I tried it out.  Lucky I'm only toying with 10BTC while I get a feel for this, cuz this weekend has been a mindfuck!

Steady up for several days then the first increase I jump the first sign of a dip (at $22.50) then the fkn thing went back up too fast.  Now it looks like it's trying to compensate, but it's just fucking with me by bouncing between $23.00 & $23.80.

Anyhoo, I'm not really losing money if I fuck up while this upward trend continues.  I just don't have the same ammount of bitcoins I started with!

 

You didn't read the theory or even any of the previous posts, did you?

But the title says it all... weekend dip myth... what more can there possibly be to it? 

there are 2 kinds of things we don't know: things we know we don't know and things we don't know we don't know.

[Piper67]

Heh... Weekend dip is starting to acquire a whole new meaning, no?

[cbeast]

I think this one is caused by a problem at coinbase. Hopefully, they get it sorted.

[molecular]

I think this one is caused by a problem at coinbase. Hopefully, they get it sorted.

can you explain or link a thread?