The Observer Effect (take 2: over $1000 by 21 July - 8 Aug)

[gondel]

"I also found that the bubbles (or peaks, if you would prefer to call them that) seem to occur approximately every 234 days (an observation already mentioned on this forum) - with the minimum time between peaks being 213 days and the maximum time being 235 days. Considering there have been six peaks, that is a very small degree of variability for such a notoriously volatile phenomenon as Bitcoin. "

So at which day after the last pick are we right now? How do you think?
BR

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[wachtwoord]

"I also found that the bubbles (or peaks, if you would prefer to call them that) seem to occur approximately every 234 days (an observation already mentioned on this forum) - with the minimum time between peaks being 213 days and the maximum time being 235 days. Considering there have been six peaks, that is a very small degree of variability for such a notoriously volatile phenomenon as Bitcoin. "

So at which day after the last pick are we right now? How do you think?
BR

It's been 194 days since the peak on November 30th of last year. So that would mean July 23th at the latest for the next peak (or we create an outlier)

[10c]

"I also found that the bubbles (or peaks, if you would prefer to call them that) seem to occur approximately every 234 days (an observation already mentioned on this forum) - with the minimum time between peaks being 213 days and the maximum time being 235 days. Considering there have been six peaks, that is a very small degree of variability for such a notoriously volatile phenomenon as Bitcoin. "

So at which day after the last pick are we right now? How do you think?
BR

It's been 194 days since the peak on November 30th of last year. So that would mean July 23th at the latest for the next peak (or we create an outlier)

maybe it will take longer because of the amounts going up (and user base increasement).
The increase in adoption should have a stabilising effect.

[okthen]

We're running out of time to get over 1000...
Still possible though, it should go fast this time

[10c]

We're running out of time to get over 1000...
Still possible though, it should go fast this time

Out of time?
we should consolidate a bit, double a bit, consolidate some more and THEN take off

[JulieFig]

Another plot for those who are interested...

This new plot is really good. As data are displayed only on 100 days, it is easier to see if we are still on track or not.

If you are interested, i could help to make a simple website to display these two wonderful charts.

If there is interest, then absolutely! Are you sure this will not eat into too much of your time?

[crocko]

Any idea why the Bitcoin price is going down ?
Now it is under  $600
http://preev.com/

[JulieFig]

Any idea why the Bitcoin price is going down ?
Now it is under  $600
http://preev.com/

No need to start worrying yet. We still seem to be following the trend of the last two run-ups quite nicely.

I actually adjusted the days at which the peaks occurred for the April and November bubbles (by 3 days at most) because then even the flash crashes on the run-up lined up! If we are where I think we are, we are just experiencing the small dip before the rally (which was coincidentally related to SR for the last run-up as well).



In fact, some more experienced traders on these forums don't seem to have been comfortable with stating that it's the start of a rally because we haven't had 'the crash before the rally' yet. Perhaps they will be satisfied with this one?

edit: Each datapoint is based on the Bitstamp close price. Since we don't yet know what the day holds in store for us, I have conservatively estimated a close of $560, just to see how it lines up on the plots. Even with that low a value, we still seem to be on track for a peak between $3000 and $5000.

[BTCtrader71]

I actually adjusted the days at which the peaks occurred for the April and November bubbles (by 3 days at most) because then even the flash crashes on the run-up lined up! If we are where I think we are, we are just experiencing the small dip before the rally (which was coincidentally related to SR for the last run-up as well).

That's one helluva coincidence! If I were a conspiracy theorist (which I'm not), I'd say that the FBI timed it on purpose. So that, ummm, .... I dunno why. But someday someone will figure it out and they'll make a movie about it starring Nicholas Cage entitled "National Treasure 18" and at the end, they will dig up the QR code with all of Satoshi's bitcoins out from under the United States Federal Reserve Building in Washington, DC.

EDIT: and it will turn out that Satoshi Nakamoto is none other than Ben Franklin who foresaw the Internet in 1770's, invented bitcoin, etched the QR code on the back of the Constitution for safekeeping, and instructed the Illuminati to unleash bitcoin and save the world when it needed it most.

[Raystonn]

[AZwarel]

Great graph!  We seem to be right on schedule.    looking forward to an exciting month or two!

You're a "Senior Member" now - congratulations! We need more high-ranked uber-bulls like you  .

Yeah, grats:-)
Uber bulls make me happy, i always feel like a millionaire stuck in the past before being a millionaire

[ORabbit]

I actually adjusted the days at which the peaks occurred for the April and November bubbles (by 3 days at most) because then even the flash crashes on the run-up lined up! If we are where I think we are, we are just experiencing the small dip before the rally (which was coincidentally related to SR for the last run-up as well).

That's one helluva coincidence! If I were a conspiracy theorist (which I'm not), I'd say that the FBI timed it on purpose. So that, ummm, .... I dunno why. But someday someone will figure it out and they'll make a movie about it starring Nicholas Cage entitled "National Treasure 18" and at the end, they will dig up the QR code with all of Satoshi's bitcoins out from under the United States Federal Reserve Building in Washington, DC.

EDIT: and it will turn out that Satoshi Nakamoto is none other than Ben Franklin who foresaw the Internet in 1770's, invented bitcoin, etched the QR code on the back of the Constitution for safekeeping, and instructed the Illuminati to unleash bitcoin and save the world when it needed it most.

A bitcoin saved is a bitcoin earned. That movie sounds amazing!

[sgk]

JulieFig, thanks for the graph!
You gave me a reason to HODL my Bitcoins!

[keithers]

Today was a slight deviation from the meteoric rise that we are all hoping for.  I think this will just end up being a slight road bump since we have been basically flooded with good news all month...

[greaterninja]

I say 1k before September.  June, definitely not 1k.  2-3k before January 1st of next year.

[lordoliver]

Hi all,

I posted this in the Wall Observer Thread, but thought I would just put it in its own individual thread for posterity's sake.

I whipped up the following chart when we were stagnant in the 400's (the blue line) and was waiting to see if the channel I arbitrarily assigned would hold, and it was a pleasant surprise to see the price hit the lower boundary and begin rising (the red line).



I also found that the bubbles (or peaks, if you would prefer to call them that) seem to occur approximately every 234 days (an observation already mentioned on this forum) - with the minimum time between peaks being 213 days and the maximum time being 235 days. Considering there have been six peaks, that is a very small degree of variability for such a notoriously volatile phenomenon as Bitcoin.

I then isolated these peaks and noticed that (bar the June 2011 peak), the others very closely follow their own exponential trend which puts the next peak at approximately $4,900 (again, aligning with other predictions being tossed around the forum).

If you extrapolate this trend further, it puts the March 2015 peak at a whopping $26,300!

One last interesting point of note... the run-up to the bubbles, whilst varying in duration, does appear to assume the same velocity. Assuming we hit the top of the channel in the next run-up, this price velocity has us commencing the notorious bull-run within the next 10-20 days. Is it just a coincidence that the 1w MACD crossover looks likely to occur in a similar time-frame?.....

Final disclaimer (before someone else invariably says it): Past behaviour is no indication of the future.

... but it sure is interesting...

TL;DR - If this expected bull-run does proceed as anticipated, will it be because we expect it to occur? And when the bubble pops, will this again be because we expect the bubble to pop? I would imagine any self-fulfilling prophecy effects such as this will become dampened as the number of users (and thus, sample size) increases?

In general this is what I also predict. But we can't hold this straight line, as the price can't go up forever. So we have a bending and a upper bound.

[okthen]

Hi all,

I posted this in the Wall Observer Thread, but thought I would just put it in its own individual thread for posterity's sake.

I whipped up the following chart when we were stagnant in the 400's (the blue line) and was waiting to see if the channel I arbitrarily assigned would hold, and it was a pleasant surprise to see the price hit the lower boundary and begin rising (the red line).



I also found that the bubbles (or peaks, if you would prefer to call them that) seem to occur approximately every 234 days (an observation already mentioned on this forum) - with the minimum time between peaks being 213 days and the maximum time being 235 days. Considering there have been six peaks, that is a very small degree of variability for such a notoriously volatile phenomenon as Bitcoin.

I then isolated these peaks and noticed that (bar the June 2011 peak), the others very closely follow their own exponential trend which puts the next peak at approximately $4,900 (again, aligning with other predictions being tossed around the forum).

If you extrapolate this trend further, it puts the March 2015 peak at a whopping $26,300!

One last interesting point of note... the run-up to the bubbles, whilst varying in duration, does appear to assume the same velocity. Assuming we hit the top of the channel in the next run-up, this price velocity has us commencing the notorious bull-run within the next 10-20 days. Is it just a coincidence that the 1w MACD crossover looks likely to occur in a similar time-frame?.....

Final disclaimer (before someone else invariably says it): Past behaviour is no indication of the future.

... but it sure is interesting...

TL;DR - If this expected bull-run does proceed as anticipated, will it be because we expect it to occur? And when the bubble pops, will this again be because we expect the bubble to pop? I would imagine any self-fulfilling prophecy effects such as this will become dampened as the number of users (and thus, sample size) increases?

In general this is what I also predict. But we can't hold this straight line, as the price can't go up forever. So we have a bending and a upper bound.

We have to bend, but I don't think it'll happen that soon.
As that one oter graph that's going around says, we're still only in the (very) early adopters phase.

[lordoliver]

Hi all,

I posted this in the Wall Observer Thread, but thought I would just put it in its own individual thread for posterity's sake.

I whipped up the following chart when we were stagnant in the 400's (the blue line) and was waiting to see if the channel I arbitrarily assigned would hold, and it was a pleasant surprise to see the price hit the lower boundary and begin rising (the red line).



I also found that the bubbles (or peaks, if you would prefer to call them that) seem to occur approximately every 234 days (an observation already mentioned on this forum) - with the minimum time between peaks being 213 days and the maximum time being 235 days. Considering there have been six peaks, that is a very small degree of variability for such a notoriously volatile phenomenon as Bitcoin.

I then isolated these peaks and noticed that (bar the June 2011 peak), the others very closely follow their own exponential trend which puts the next peak at approximately $4,900 (again, aligning with other predictions being tossed around the forum).

If you extrapolate this trend further, it puts the March 2015 peak at a whopping $26,300!

One last interesting point of note... the run-up to the bubbles, whilst varying in duration, does appear to assume the same velocity. Assuming we hit the top of the channel in the next run-up, this price velocity has us commencing the notorious bull-run within the next 10-20 days. Is it just a coincidence that the 1w MACD crossover looks likely to occur in a similar time-frame?.....

Final disclaimer (before someone else invariably says it): Past behaviour is no indication of the future.

... but it sure is interesting...

TL;DR - If this expected bull-run does proceed as anticipated, will it be because we expect it to occur? And when the bubble pops, will this again be because we expect the bubble to pop? I would imagine any self-fulfilling prophecy effects such as this will become dampened as the number of users (and thus, sample size) increases?

In general this is what I also predict. But we can't hold this straight line, as the price can't go up forever. So we have a bending and a upper bound.

We have to bend, but I don't think it'll happen that soon.
As that one oter graph that's going around says, we're still only in the (very) early adopters phase.

in fact we are bending already. look at the peak at about 350 days... the gradient before was higher, than it is now.

[UnDerDoG81]

Yesterday I've reaeded in an German newspaper that the euro is losing value because of some new law (don't know exactly what) and that investors are escaping from the euro to alternative investments. Even risky ones. So this could pump up the price a bit if they hear about btc.

[JulieFig]

JulieFig, thanks for the graph!
You gave me a reason to HODL my Bitcoins!

Happy to have helped .

The graphs do make it a little easier to stay rational during drops like the one just gone, that's for sure. I do wish I had been smart enough to do up all these plots before I bought in though. I had the 'good' fortune of buying at roughly $1000 (very close to the ATH). I have held through the subsequent drop and all the way down (buying some more to lower the dollar cost average) so I feel like I have earned my Bitcoin stripes.

I have never actually been around here for a proper rally (to an ATH) before though, and am really looking forward to it!