The Observer Effect (take 2: over $1000 by 21 July - 8 Aug)

[JulieFig]

Hi all,

I posted this in the Wall Observer Thread, but thought I would just put it in its own individual thread for posterity's sake.

I whipped up the following chart when we were stagnant in the 400's (the blue line) and was waiting to see if the channel I arbitrarily assigned would hold, and it was a pleasant surprise to see the price hit the lower boundary and begin rising (the red line).



I also found that the bubbles (or peaks, if you would prefer to call them that) seem to occur approximately every 234 days (an observation already mentioned on this forum) - with the minimum time between peaks being 213 days and the maximum time being 235 days. Considering there have been six peaks, that is a very small degree of variability for such a notoriously volatile phenomenon as Bitcoin.

I then isolated these peaks and noticed that (bar the June 2011 peak), the others very closely follow their own exponential trend which puts the next peak at approximately $4,900 (again, aligning with other predictions being tossed around the forum).

If you extrapolate this trend further, it puts the March 2015 peak at a whopping $26,300!

One last interesting point of note... the run-up to the bubbles, whilst varying in duration, does appear to assume the same velocity. Assuming we hit the top of the channel in the next run-up, this price velocity has us commencing the notorious bull-run within the next 10-20 days. Is it just a coincidence that the 1w MACD crossover looks likely to occur in a similar time-frame?.....

Final disclaimer (before someone else invariably says it): Past behaviour is no indication of the future.

... but it sure is interesting...

TL;DR - If this expected bull-run does proceed as anticipated, will it be because we expect it to occur? And when the bubble pops, will this again be because we expect the bubble to pop? I would imagine any self-fulfilling prophecy effects such as this will become dampened as the number of users (and thus, sample size) increases?

[1715157563]

1715157563

[DolanDuck]

This bull run was predicted since two years and if the trends continues, we will see btc breaking through 100000 in 2016,
this seems fatascientific but with the adoption spreading everyday more could be realistic, and we all hope so 

[BitChick]

Great graph!  We seem to be right on schedule.    looking forward to an exciting month or two!

[JulieFig]

Great graph!  We seem to be right on schedule.    looking forward to an exciting month or two!

You're a "Senior Member" now - congratulations! We need more high-ranked uber-bulls like you  .

[Morbid]

though the more of us aware of this trend the less predictable it becomes. the bursts will get harder.

[the_sunship]

Good to see some quantum theory on here. I agree, we see what we expect.

[Benjig]

This bull run was predicted since two years and if the trends continues, we will see btc breaking through 100000 in 2016,
this seems fatascientific but with the adoption spreading everyday more could be realistic, and we all hope so 

It alk depends on the trader sentiment, theres some point when holders and common people start thinnking "its very expensive" so then they start dumping their coins and the bulls have to wait for those weakhands to go away
.

[bitleif]

Your channel seems to be based mostly on the last two peaks. In particular there doesn't seem to be much basis for the lower part of your channel. I know it's just an approximation, but have you considered using a slightly "bendy" channel to fit the data? Over time you would expect the exponential trend to flatten out after all.

Unless to da moon literally means I'm going to be rich enough to buy the moon 

[Elwar]

Your channel seems to be based mostly on the last two peaks. In particular there doesn't seem to be much basis for the lower part of your channel. I know it's just an approximation, but have you considered using a slightly "bendy" channel to fit the data? Over time you would expect the exponential trend to flatten out after all.

Unless to da moon literally means I'm going to be rich enough to buy the moon 

You need to take into account the fact that the last two peaks were when the block reward was 25, the ones before were at 50.

[JulieFig]

Your channel seems to be based mostly on the last two peaks. In particular there doesn't seem to be much basis for the lower part of your channel. I know it's just an approximation, but have you considered using a slightly "bendy" channel to fit the data? Over time you would expect the exponential trend to flatten out after all.

Unless to da moon literally means I'm going to be rich enough to buy the moon 

You are right, and as I mentioned, the channel I have drawn is purely arbitrary. I did place more 'weight' on the later peaks in order to assign the channel boundaries as the user-base was much larger at these times, arguably giving more credibility to the data.

Yes, there is some point at which this exponential trend will flatten out, as you also mentioned - for instance, SlipperySlope's prediction has it petering off at $1,000,000. If that does eventuate, I would say we have already arrived at the moon, no? 

[TERA]

The channel seems unbalanced in that on the left side of the chart, most of the action is in the upper part of the channel or even way above the channel.

[Wolf Rainer]

I don´t know what im going to do. I need to sell my btc to pay bills, but i know it will keep on rising and im going to lose money, but i sell or i sleep in the streets.

[JulieFig]

The channel seems unbalanced in that on the left side of the chart, most of the action is in the upper part of the channel or even way above the channel.

You're missing the point I think. That channel is purely arbitrary and was in no way used to make those predictions. I simply included it to give myself a bit of a visual 'safety net' for price fluctuations. It is helped me greatly in the small trades I have made.

[Thylacine]

Now I don't know whether to buy a house next year - or wait until we hit $100K and buy two. 

[T.Stuart]

I don´t know what im going to do. I need to sell my btc to pay bills, but i know it will keep on rising and im going to lose money, but i sell or i sleep in the streets.

Sleep on the streets until 2016 and then contact the national newspapers. 

[wachtwoord]

Great similarity to "rally" 3 or 4 on your chart would mean a very small rally. Hopefully we'll share the length with the second one this time. Although, that would result in a very very long bear market. The last shake-out?

[spndr7]

I then isolated these peaks and noticed that (bar the June 2011 peak), the others very closely follow their own exponential trend which puts the next peak at approximately $4,900 (again, aligning with other predictions being tossed around the forum).

If you extrapolate this trend further, it puts the March 2015 peak at a whopping $26,300!

One last interesting point of note... the run-up to the bubbles, whilst varying in duration, does appear to assume the same velocity. Assuming we hit the top of the channel in the next run-up, this price velocity has us commencing the notorious bull-run within the next 10-20 days. Is it just a coincidence that the 1w MACD crossover looks likely to occur in a similar time-frame?.....

Great observation !!

If 4900 is not achieved in next peak, instead BTC manages to reach just 2500 $,
then 26300 $ target should be decreased exponentially ?

[zimmah]

Agreed, seems to be in line with other predictions, not really new information, but verifies old information.

The next bubble will likely either  confirm or deny many of our theories. Altough I hope it confirms them, as that would make bitcoin very predictable to people who know their shit.

I then isolated these peaks and noticed that (bar the June 2011 peak), the others very closely follow their own exponential trend which puts the next peak at approximately $4,900 (again, aligning with other predictions being tossed around the forum).

If you extrapolate this trend further, it puts the March 2015 peak at a whopping $26,300!

One last interesting point of note... the run-up to the bubbles, whilst varying in duration, does appear to assume the same velocity. Assuming we hit the top of the channel in the next run-up, this price velocity has us commencing the notorious bull-run within the next 10-20 days. Is it just a coincidence that the 1w MACD crossover looks likely to occur in a similar time-frame?.....

Great observation !!

If 4900 is not achieved in next peak, instead BTC manages to reach just 2500 $,
then 26300 $ target should be decreased exponentially ?

That would mean bitcoin would grow MUCH slower than it did before, and that it's reaching the stages of late adoption. Unlikely to happen this soon. We are nowhere near full adoption yet.

[alexeft]

Now I don't know whether to buy a house next year - or wait until we hit $100K and buy two.  

Why would you want to buy two houses  

[segeln]

no Explanation needed
sorry, Insertion of Image doesn`t work