The Observer Effect (take 2: over $1000 by 21 July - 8 Aug)

[JulieFig]

Hi all,

I posted this in the Wall Observer Thread, but thought I would just put it in its own individual thread for posterity's sake.

I whipped up the following chart when we were stagnant in the 400's (the blue line) and was waiting to see if the channel I arbitrarily assigned would hold, and it was a pleasant surprise to see the price hit the lower boundary and begin rising (the red line).



I also found that the bubbles (or peaks, if you would prefer to call them that) seem to occur approximately every 234 days (an observation already mentioned on this forum) - with the minimum time between peaks being 213 days and the maximum time being 235 days. Considering there have been six peaks, that is a very small degree of variability for such a notoriously volatile phenomenon as Bitcoin.

I then isolated these peaks and noticed that (bar the June 2011 peak), the others very closely follow their own exponential trend which puts the next peak at approximately $4,900 (again, aligning with other predictions being tossed around the forum).

If you extrapolate this trend further, it puts the March 2015 peak at a whopping $26,300!

One last interesting point of note... the run-up to the bubbles, whilst varying in duration, does appear to assume the same velocity. Assuming we hit the top of the channel in the next run-up, this price velocity has us commencing the notorious bull-run within the next 10-20 days. Is it just a coincidence that the 1w MACD crossover looks likely to occur in a similar time-frame?.....

Final disclaimer (before someone else invariably says it): Past behaviour is no indication of the future.

... but it sure is interesting...

TL;DR - If this expected bull-run does proceed as anticipated, will it be because we expect it to occur? And when the bubble pops, will this again be because we expect the bubble to pop? I would imagine any self-fulfilling prophecy effects such as this will become dampened as the number of users (and thus, sample size) increases?

[DolanDuck]

This bull run was predicted since two years and if the trends continues, we will see btc breaking through 100000 in 2016,
this seems fatascientific but with the adoption spreading everyday more could be realistic, and we all hope so 

[BitChick]

Great graph!  We seem to be right on schedule.    looking forward to an exciting month or two!

[JulieFig]

Great graph!  We seem to be right on schedule.    looking forward to an exciting month or two!

You're a "Senior Member" now - congratulations! We need more high-ranked uber-bulls like you  .

[Morbid]

though the more of us aware of this trend the less predictable it becomes. the bursts will get harder.

[the_sunship]

Good to see some quantum theory on here. I agree, we see what we expect.

[Benjig]

This bull run was predicted since two years and if the trends continues, we will see btc breaking through 100000 in 2016,
this seems fatascientific but with the adoption spreading everyday more could be realistic, and we all hope so 

It alk depends on the trader sentiment, theres some point when holders and common people start thinnking "its very expensive" so then they start dumping their coins and the bulls have to wait for those weakhands to go away
.

[bitleif]

Your channel seems to be based mostly on the last two peaks. In particular there doesn't seem to be much basis for the lower part of your channel. I know it's just an approximation, but have you considered using a slightly "bendy" channel to fit the data? Over time you would expect the exponential trend to flatten out after all.

Unless to da moon literally means I'm going to be rich enough to buy the moon 

[Elwar]

Your channel seems to be based mostly on the last two peaks. In particular there doesn't seem to be much basis for the lower part of your channel. I know it's just an approximation, but have you considered using a slightly "bendy" channel to fit the data? Over time you would expect the exponential trend to flatten out after all.

Unless to da moon literally means I'm going to be rich enough to buy the moon 

You need to take into account the fact that the last two peaks were when the block reward was 25, the ones before were at 50.

[JulieFig]

Your channel seems to be based mostly on the last two peaks. In particular there doesn't seem to be much basis for the lower part of your channel. I know it's just an approximation, but have you considered using a slightly "bendy" channel to fit the data? Over time you would expect the exponential trend to flatten out after all.

Unless to da moon literally means I'm going to be rich enough to buy the moon 

You are right, and as I mentioned, the channel I have drawn is purely arbitrary. I did place more 'weight' on the later peaks in order to assign the channel boundaries as the user-base was much larger at these times, arguably giving more credibility to the data.

Yes, there is some point at which this exponential trend will flatten out, as you also mentioned - for instance, SlipperySlope's prediction has it petering off at $1,000,000. If that does eventuate, I would say we have already arrived at the moon, no? 

[TERA]

The channel seems unbalanced in that on the left side of the chart, most of the action is in the upper part of the channel or even way above the channel.

[Wolf Rainer]

I don´t know what im going to do. I need to sell my btc to pay bills, but i know it will keep on rising and im going to lose money, but i sell or i sleep in the streets.

[JulieFig]

The channel seems unbalanced in that on the left side of the chart, most of the action is in the upper part of the channel or even way above the channel.

You're missing the point I think. That channel is purely arbitrary and was in no way used to make those predictions. I simply included it to give myself a bit of a visual 'safety net' for price fluctuations. It is helped me greatly in the small trades I have made.

[Thylacine]

Now I don't know whether to buy a house next year - or wait until we hit $100K and buy two. 

[T.Stuart]

I don´t know what im going to do. I need to sell my btc to pay bills, but i know it will keep on rising and im going to lose money, but i sell or i sleep in the streets.

Sleep on the streets until 2016 and then contact the national newspapers. 

[wachtwoord]

Great similarity to "rally" 3 or 4 on your chart would mean a very small rally. Hopefully we'll share the length with the second one this time. Although, that would result in a very very long bear market. The last shake-out?

[spndr7]

I then isolated these peaks and noticed that (bar the June 2011 peak), the others very closely follow their own exponential trend which puts the next peak at approximately $4,900 (again, aligning with other predictions being tossed around the forum).

If you extrapolate this trend further, it puts the March 2015 peak at a whopping $26,300!

One last interesting point of note... the run-up to the bubbles, whilst varying in duration, does appear to assume the same velocity. Assuming we hit the top of the channel in the next run-up, this price velocity has us commencing the notorious bull-run within the next 10-20 days. Is it just a coincidence that the 1w MACD crossover looks likely to occur in a similar time-frame?.....

Great observation !!

If 4900 is not achieved in next peak, instead BTC manages to reach just 2500 $,
then 26300 $ target should be decreased exponentially ?

[zimmah]

Agreed, seems to be in line with other predictions, not really new information, but verifies old information.

The next bubble will likely either  confirm or deny many of our theories. Altough I hope it confirms them, as that would make bitcoin very predictable to people who know their shit.

I then isolated these peaks and noticed that (bar the June 2011 peak), the others very closely follow their own exponential trend which puts the next peak at approximately $4,900 (again, aligning with other predictions being tossed around the forum).

If you extrapolate this trend further, it puts the March 2015 peak at a whopping $26,300!

One last interesting point of note... the run-up to the bubbles, whilst varying in duration, does appear to assume the same velocity. Assuming we hit the top of the channel in the next run-up, this price velocity has us commencing the notorious bull-run within the next 10-20 days. Is it just a coincidence that the 1w MACD crossover looks likely to occur in a similar time-frame?.....

Great observation !!

If 4900 is not achieved in next peak, instead BTC manages to reach just 2500 $,
then 26300 $ target should be decreased exponentially ?

That would mean bitcoin would grow MUCH slower than it did before, and that it's reaching the stages of late adoption. Unlikely to happen this soon. We are nowhere near full adoption yet.

[alexeft]

Now I don't know whether to buy a house next year - or wait until we hit $100K and buy two.  

Why would you want to buy two houses  

[segeln]

no Explanation needed
sorry, Insertion of Image doesn`t work

[SirChiko]

Now I don't know whether to buy a house next year - or wait until we hit $100K and buy two.  

Why would you want to buy two houses  

So you won't live in stereotype?

[MICRO]

I definitely see the pattern but , will it continue , who knows. I would not base my trading based on this. But its rly interesting.
Lets just hope this rly gets true. Well done for this great graph.

[maker88]

Now I don't know whether to buy a house next year - or wait until we hit $100K and buy two.  

Why would you want to buy two houses  

this is like asking "why would you want to be rich?"

[alexeft]

Now I don't know whether to buy a house next year - or wait until we hit $100K and buy two.  

Why would you want to buy two houses  

this is like asking "why would you want to be rich?"

No, it's not!

Are you saying that it's better to hold houses than bitcoins?

[maker88]

Now I don't know whether to buy a house next year - or wait until we hit $100K and buy two.  

Why would you want to buy two houses  

this is like asking "why would you want to be rich?"

No, it's not!

Are you saying that it's better to hold houses than bitcoins?

from a historical basis, yes houses are a good investment. should anyone hold anything INSTEAD of the other? no thats not what I'm saying. but the reasons one would want to have two houses is fairly obvious. its one of the most reliable investments there is i believe, even taking the 'housing crisis' of america into consideration, people with houses are certainly better off than people with just one house, if you actually own them. theres a large number of extremely wealthy people in the world who owe it all to buying real estate. if done right, it can do pretty well. maybe not early adoption of bitcoin well, but its nice and stable and some people like stable performers over volatility.

[Wilhelm]

Having two houses on different hemispheres gives you permanent summer or winter, whatever creams your twinkie

[JulieFig]

I definitely see the pattern but , will it continue , who knows. I would not base my trading based on this. But its rly interesting.
Lets just hope this rly gets true. Well done for this great graph.

Thanks - I can keep updating it if anyone is interested.

TERA seems to think we will not see a July run-up... good news is we will know either way within a month's time.

[bitcoinsrus]

keep updating brah, i am interested. great posts

[JulieFig]

I definitely see the pattern but , will it continue , who knows. I would not base my trading based on this. But its rly interesting.
Lets just hope this rly gets true. Well done for this great graph.

Thanks - I can keep updating it if anyone is interested.

TERA seems to think we will not see a July run-up... good news is we will know either way within a month's time.

In fact, we will know within 10-15 days, at which point the price will hit the red velocity trendline. In all of its price history, Bitcoin has never accelerated faster than this line which means if we don't start going up at or before it, the July 'bubble' is a pipe dream.

edit: ...assuming the bubble peak is at $4,900.

Exciting times ahead...

[Arghhh]

I definitely see the pattern but , will it continue , who knows. I would not base my trading based on this. But its rly interesting.
Lets just hope this rly gets true. Well done for this great graph.

Thanks - I can keep updating it if anyone is interested.

TERA seems to think we will not see a July run-up... good news is we will know either way within a month's time.

TERA seems to think like this:

The rise of 2013 was much higher than the rise of 2012.  Some people keep speaking of the obvious "line" on the log chart. However I am having trouble finding this line and in fact I can draw several lines which would allow btc to go much lower than it is now before going up again. I have plotted a couple for reference.



The low volume and the lack of significant bid depth on mtgox that continues to fail to fill in above 125 seems to confirm my suspicion that it isn't ready to go higher at this point. I think this ordeal with the bid depth was an inflection point for this Jul-Aug rally.  

My new view of the market:



I wouldn't be suprised to see flat for an entire year.

TERA needs to take anti-depressants.

[JulieFig]

I definitely see the pattern but , will it continue , who knows. I would not base my trading based on this. But its rly interesting.
Lets just hope this rly gets true. Well done for this great graph.

Thanks - I can keep updating it if anyone is interested.

TERA seems to think we will not see a July run-up... good news is we will know either way within a month's time.

TERA seems to think like this:

My new view of the market:



I wouldn't be suprised to see flat for an entire year.

TERA needs to take anti-depressants.

Nice finds!

[BitChick]

I definitely see the pattern but , will it continue , who knows. I would not base my trading based on this. But its rly interesting.
Lets just hope this rly gets true. Well done for this great graph.

Thanks - I can keep updating it if anyone is interested.

TERA seems to think we will not see a July run-up... good news is we will know either way within a month's time.

TERA did not think we would see a run up in November either.  If anything, we should take this as very bullish news that confirms our suspicions!  

See thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=294625.msg3165590#msg3165590

[bitcoinsrus]

(just made this meme for fun)

[JulieFig]

(just made this meme for fun)

I'm sure this will get picked up and tossed around soon enough .

[Arghhh]

TERA did not think we would see a run up in November either.  If anything, we should take this as very bullish news that confirms our suspicions!  

See thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=294625.msg3165590#msg3165590

I just added that chart to my TARA-bear macro.

[BitchicksHusband]

I don´t know what im going to do. I need to sell my btc to pay bills, but i know it will keep on rising and im going to lose money, but i sell or i sleep in the streets.

Hey, I had to sell some this month too in order to pay my car payment.  If you gotta, you gotta.

[alexeft]

Now I don't know whether to buy a house next year - or wait until we hit $100K and buy two.  

Why would you want to buy two houses  

this is like asking "why would you want to be rich?"

No, it's not!

Are you saying that it's better to hold houses than bitcoins?

from a historical basis, yes houses are a good investment. should anyone hold anything INSTEAD of the other? no thats not what I'm saying. but the reasons one would want to have two houses is fairly obvious. its one of the most reliable investments there is i believe, even taking the 'housing crisis' of america into consideration, people with houses are certainly better off than people with just one house, if you actually own them. theres a large number of extremely wealthy people in the world who owe it all to buying real estate. if done right, it can do pretty well. maybe not early adoption of bitcoin well, but its nice and stable and some people like stable performers over volatility.

Agree, but perhaps someone would like to ask about the situation in Greece. There are 300k unsold houses and another 300k mortgaged ones but in the red (the loan is not being paid)!!!

 

People with mortgages are required to pay at the price they bought plus interest etc, while the value of their property has plummeted by 50% or even more!!! Not much of an investment there!!!

[zimmah]

Now I don't know whether to buy a house next year - or wait until we hit $100K and buy two.  

Why would you want to buy two houses  

this is like asking "why would you want to be rich?"

No, it's not!

Are you saying that it's better to hold houses than bitcoins?

from a historical basis, yes houses are a good investment. should anyone hold anything INSTEAD of the other? no thats not what I'm saying. but the reasons one would want to have two houses is fairly obvious. its one of the most reliable investments there is i believe, even taking the 'housing crisis' of america into consideration, people with houses are certainly better off than people with just one house, if you actually own them. theres a large number of extremely wealthy people in the world who owe it all to buying real estate. if done right, it can do pretty well. maybe not early adoption of bitcoin well, but its nice and stable and some people like stable performers over volatility.

Agree, but perhaps someone would like to ask about the situation in Greece. There are 300k unsold houses and another 300k mortgaged ones but in the red (the loan is not being paid)!!!

 

People with mortgages are required to pay at the price they bought plus interest etc, while the value of their property has plummeted by 50% or even more!!! Not much of an investment there!!!

I believe the best time to buy houses is during a currency collapse. So we'd need to wait a while before the dollar and euro collapse and than buy houses and other assets with gold/silver/bitcoin and than wait for the price to rise before selling them.

Renting them is also an option for a sustained income.

[Joe200]

I also found that the bubbles (or peaks, if you would prefer to call them that) seem to occur approximately every 234 days (an observation already mentioned on this forum) - with the minimum time between peaks being 213 days and the maximum time being 235 days. Considering there have been six peaks, that is a very small degree of variability for such a notoriously volatile phenomenon as Bitcoin.

Could you please post the dates of the peaks and how exactly you define a peak?

By my count, there have been six peaks as well. However, the number of days between peaks that I've identified has ranged from 99 (2010-11-07 to 2011-02-14) all the way to 664 (2011-06-09 to 2013-04-09).

PS. Cool graph. How did you generate it?

[Raystonn]

We all love this chart and hope it comes to fruition.  But I must point out that the bottom line is just a copy of the top line's slope fit to touch a single low.  This doesn't make it a particularly strong channel.  The bottom line may not have the same slope.

[JulieFig]

Here is an updated chart... although it is hard to see any progress since we of course are in log-scale.

[JulieFig]

I also found that the bubbles (or peaks, if you would prefer to call them that) seem to occur approximately every 234 days (an observation already mentioned on this forum) - with the minimum time between peaks being 213 days and the maximum time being 235 days. Considering there have been six peaks, that is a very small degree of variability for such a notoriously volatile phenomenon as Bitcoin.

Could you please post the dates of the peaks and how exactly you define a peak? I simply defined a peak as a new ATH. However, this is assuming the magnitude of the peak that occurred in June 2011 is an outlier in terms of datapoints, but the date at which it occurred aligns with the proceeding peaks. Excluding this June 2011 peak magnitude, the peaks following (Jan and August 2012) could be considered ATHs. It is an assumption, yes, but a valid one (imho) considering the smaller user-base in the early years, and arguably less reliable exchange data.

By my count, there have been six peaks as well. However, the number of days between peaks that I've identified has ranged from 99 (2010-11-07 to 2011-02-14) all the way to 664 (2011-06-09 to 2013-04-09).

PS. Cool graph. How did you generate it? Good old excel.

[JulieFig]

We all love this chart and hope it comes to fruition.  But I must point out that the bottom line is just a copy of the top line's slope fit to touch a single low.  This doesn't make it a particularly strong channel.  The bottom line may not have the same slope.

You are right, but as I said previously, this channel is purely arbitrary, and was really only included as a visual guide (for myself) - although, don't you think chart looks nicer for it?  

This channel was in no way used to determine the projected ATHs that I have also posted.

[bitcoinsrus]

Julie, any plans of making a site with one of your charts (that updates). Would seem like a good follow.

[bitrider]

I don´t know what im going to do. I need to sell my btc to pay bills, but i know it will keep on rising and im going to lose money, but i sell or i sleep in the streets.

Sleep on the streets until 2016 and then contact the national newspapers. 

Yes. What's life if not an adventure? 

Or better yet, ask your powerful mind "how can I hold my bitcoins and still live comfortably for the next year?"

[maker88]

Now I don't know whether to buy a house next year - or wait until we hit $100K and buy two.  

Why would you want to buy two houses  

this is like asking "why would you want to be rich?"

No, it's not!

Are you saying that it's better to hold houses than bitcoins?

from a historical basis, yes houses are a good investment. should anyone hold anything INSTEAD of the other? no thats not what I'm saying. but the reasons one would want to have two houses is fairly obvious. its one of the most reliable investments there is i believe, even taking the 'housing crisis' of america into consideration, people with houses are certainly better off than people with just one house, if you actually own them. theres a large number of extremely wealthy people in the world who owe it all to buying real estate. if done right, it can do pretty well. maybe not early adoption of bitcoin well, but its nice and stable and some people like stable performers over volatility.

Agree, but perhaps someone would like to ask about the situation in Greece. There are 300k unsold houses and another 300k mortgaged ones but in the red (the loan is not being paid)!!!

 

People with mortgages are required to pay at the price they bought plus interest etc, while the value of their property has plummeted by 50% or even more!!! Not much of an investment there!!!

like i said, no one is talking about mortgages, talking about BUYING a house. as in purchasing it, in full, with money you have currently. no mortgage. but you're totally right thats exactly what happened in america, artificially overvalued assets, bought on leverage. likely those people did no research into what the house should be worth based on land and intrinsic value, more they went with the agents word and recent local sale numbers. never a smart move to buy things that are over valued on leverage and also not do your research.

[JulieFig]

Julie, any plans of making a site with one of your charts (that updates). Would seem like a good follow.

That's not a bad idea... if there's interest. I might wait and see how the bubble (or peak) prediction goes first. It could all be for nought!

[BittBurger]

In regards to the chart in the OP:

Is there any indication that each of the new jumps, or general movement over time has slowed in volatility?

I am no expert in these charts.  I guess I am wondering if there is reason to believe that the *percent* increases we've seen might realistically decrease as we move to the right?

That is what most non chart people would say.  We've seen our 8000% increase already.  What reason do we have to believe it will continue along the 'same line'  ?

-B-

[romneymoney]

Now I don't know whether to buy a house next year - or wait until we hit $100K and buy two.  

Why would you want to buy two houses  

this is like asking "why would you want to be rich?"

No, it's not!

Are you saying that it's better to hold houses than bitcoins?

from a historical basis, yes houses are a good investment. should anyone hold anything INSTEAD of the other? no thats not what I'm saying. but the reasons one would want to have two houses is fairly obvious. its one of the most reliable investments there is i believe, even taking the 'housing crisis' of america into consideration, people with houses are certainly better off than people with just one house, if you actually own them. theres a large number of extremely wealthy people in the world who owe it all to buying real estate. if done right, it can do pretty well. maybe not early adoption of bitcoin well, but its nice and stable and some people like stable performers over volatility.

Agree, but perhaps someone would like to ask about the situation in Greece. There are 300k unsold houses and another 300k mortgaged ones but in the red (the loan is not being paid)!!!

 

People with mortgages are required to pay at the price they bought plus interest etc, while the value of their property has plummeted by 50% or even more!!! Not much of an investment there!!!

like i said, no one is talking about mortgages, talking about BUYING a house. as in purchasing it, in full, with money you have currently. no mortgage. but you're totally right thats exactly what happened in america, artificially overvalued assets, bought on leverage. likely those people did no research into what the house should be worth based on land and intrinsic value, more they went with the agents word and recent local sale numbers. never a smart move to buy things that are over valued on leverage and also not do your research.

You better believe real estate investors consider those things very seriously.  For us poor saps that need a place to live at some locations, there aren't many options besides paying market price on leverage.  There are arguments for renting, but it doesn't work for everyone.

[BitChick]

In regards to the chart in the OP:

Is there any indication that each of the new jumps, or general movement over time has slowed in volatility?

I am no expert in these charts.  I guess I am wondering if there is reason to believe that the *percent* increases we've seen might realistically decrease as we move to the right?

That is what most non chart people would say.  We've seen our 8000% increase already.  What reason do we have to believe it will continue along the 'same line'  ?

-B-

I am not the OP of course, but I think that we will continue to see the steady rate of adoption until something major (such as the Wall Street ETF) causes the steady increase to change.  The price jump once Wall Street joins in will be greater than what we have seen so far. For those that have a more fatalistic view a serious flaw in Bitcoin or government shut down could cause the price to go off track in the other direction too.  But I think the point is that if everything stays the "same" we will see these continuous bubbles until we reach full market adoption, or close to full market adoption.

[snowdropfore]

come on ,keep update

[JulieFig]

come on ,keep update

No worries. (I was holding off since the large time-scale makes day-to-day updates seem a little superfluous.)

But here is the updated plot... we have hit the 'velocity line', but bear in mind that this line was drawn through a peak expected on 17th July. Based on previous cycles (where peaks occur approximately every 230 days), this date could be as late as 24th July. I may adjust for this as we get more data.

[JulieFig]

Another plot for those who are interested...

I superimposed the current trend (over the last 50 days) with the run-ups to the April and November 2013 peaks.

We still seem to be right on track for a peak between $4000 and $5000...



Good news is we only need to wait a fortnight (maximum) to find out if history will repeat itself.

Note: This plot has the peak occurring in late July, which is based on the assumption that the peaks occur (approximately) every 234 days (an assumption based on historical data).

[snowdropfore]

thank you!!

[madmat]

Another plot for those who are interested...

This new plot is really good. As data are displayed only on 100 days, it is easier to see if we are still on track or not.

If you are interested, i could help to make a simple website to display these two wonderful charts.

[10c]

awsome! keep it up

[Gianluca95]

I Think that all of this is unrealistic, is very difficulty that the price of Bitcoin can go over 4000$ over July ! Now price is only 630$ and there is low liquidity on our market (Bitfinex, Bitstamp ecc.).

However, there is some probability that the price will go to 4000$ by the end of this years, is much possible, but the next month absolutely no !

[madmat]

I Think that all of this is unrealistic, is very difficulty that the price of Bitcoin can go over 4000$ over July ! Now price is only 630$ and there is low liquidity on our market (Bitfinex, Bitstamp ecc.).

However, there is some probability that the price will go to 4000$ by the end of this years, is much possible, but the next month absolutely no !

This seems unrealistic to all of us. Price mutliplied by ten in less than two months is just too hard to catch for human people. If everyone here were convinced the price will follow this graph, everyone would be all in btc, and this is not the case.

Hopefully, we will have an answer in less than two months.

[Gianluca95]

I Think that all of this is unrealistic, is very difficulty that the price of Bitcoin can go over 4000$ over July ! Now price is only 630$ and there is low liquidity on our market (Bitfinex, Bitstamp ecc.).

However, there is some probability that the price will go to 4000$ by the end of this years, is much possible, but the next month absolutely no !

This seems unrealistic to all of us. Price mutliplied by ten in less than two months is just too hard to catch for human people. If everyone here were convinced the price will follow this graph, everyone would be all in btc, and this is not the case.

Hopefully, we will have an answer in less than two months.

Exactly. But there is a probability that the price will go up to 1500$ to the end of July, is not impossible, is probably (x3 respect the actual price).

however, if big investor doesn't enter to bitcoin, price will not multiply easily. Now, (for example me) I waiting the ETF of Winklevoss brother, after it, to the Saturn (not the moon, is too much near !)

[alexeft]

Nice graph OP! Thanks for posting and updating! 

[gondel]

"I also found that the bubbles (or peaks, if you would prefer to call them that) seem to occur approximately every 234 days (an observation already mentioned on this forum) - with the minimum time between peaks being 213 days and the maximum time being 235 days. Considering there have been six peaks, that is a very small degree of variability for such a notoriously volatile phenomenon as Bitcoin. "

So at which day after the last pick are we right now? How do you think?
BR

[wachtwoord]

"I also found that the bubbles (or peaks, if you would prefer to call them that) seem to occur approximately every 234 days (an observation already mentioned on this forum) - with the minimum time between peaks being 213 days and the maximum time being 235 days. Considering there have been six peaks, that is a very small degree of variability for such a notoriously volatile phenomenon as Bitcoin. "

So at which day after the last pick are we right now? How do you think?
BR

It's been 194 days since the peak on November 30th of last year. So that would mean July 23th at the latest for the next peak (or we create an outlier)

[10c]

"I also found that the bubbles (or peaks, if you would prefer to call them that) seem to occur approximately every 234 days (an observation already mentioned on this forum) - with the minimum time between peaks being 213 days and the maximum time being 235 days. Considering there have been six peaks, that is a very small degree of variability for such a notoriously volatile phenomenon as Bitcoin. "

So at which day after the last pick are we right now? How do you think?
BR

It's been 194 days since the peak on November 30th of last year. So that would mean July 23th at the latest for the next peak (or we create an outlier)

maybe it will take longer because of the amounts going up (and user base increasement).
The increase in adoption should have a stabilising effect.

[okthen]

We're running out of time to get over 1000...
Still possible though, it should go fast this time

[10c]

We're running out of time to get over 1000...
Still possible though, it should go fast this time

Out of time?
we should consolidate a bit, double a bit, consolidate some more and THEN take off

[JulieFig]

Another plot for those who are interested...

This new plot is really good. As data are displayed only on 100 days, it is easier to see if we are still on track or not.

If you are interested, i could help to make a simple website to display these two wonderful charts.

If there is interest, then absolutely! Are you sure this will not eat into too much of your time?

[crocko]

Any idea why the Bitcoin price is going down ?
Now it is under  $600
http://preev.com/

[JulieFig]

Any idea why the Bitcoin price is going down ?
Now it is under  $600
http://preev.com/

No need to start worrying yet. We still seem to be following the trend of the last two run-ups quite nicely.

I actually adjusted the days at which the peaks occurred for the April and November bubbles (by 3 days at most) because then even the flash crashes on the run-up lined up! If we are where I think we are, we are just experiencing the small dip before the rally (which was coincidentally related to SR for the last run-up as well).



In fact, some more experienced traders on these forums don't seem to have been comfortable with stating that it's the start of a rally because we haven't had 'the crash before the rally' yet. Perhaps they will be satisfied with this one?

edit: Each datapoint is based on the Bitstamp close price. Since we don't yet know what the day holds in store for us, I have conservatively estimated a close of $560, just to see how it lines up on the plots. Even with that low a value, we still seem to be on track for a peak between $3000 and $5000.

[BTCtrader71]

I actually adjusted the days at which the peaks occurred for the April and November bubbles (by 3 days at most) because then even the flash crashes on the run-up lined up! If we are where I think we are, we are just experiencing the small dip before the rally (which was coincidentally related to SR for the last run-up as well).

That's one helluva coincidence! If I were a conspiracy theorist (which I'm not), I'd say that the FBI timed it on purpose. So that, ummm, .... I dunno why. But someday someone will figure it out and they'll make a movie about it starring Nicholas Cage entitled "National Treasure 18" and at the end, they will dig up the QR code with all of Satoshi's bitcoins out from under the United States Federal Reserve Building in Washington, DC.

EDIT: and it will turn out that Satoshi Nakamoto is none other than Ben Franklin who foresaw the Internet in 1770's, invented bitcoin, etched the QR code on the back of the Constitution for safekeeping, and instructed the Illuminati to unleash bitcoin and save the world when it needed it most.

[Raystonn]

[AZwarel]

Great graph!  We seem to be right on schedule.    looking forward to an exciting month or two!

You're a "Senior Member" now - congratulations! We need more high-ranked uber-bulls like you  .

Yeah, grats:-)
Uber bulls make me happy, i always feel like a millionaire stuck in the past before being a millionaire

[ORabbit]

I actually adjusted the days at which the peaks occurred for the April and November bubbles (by 3 days at most) because then even the flash crashes on the run-up lined up! If we are where I think we are, we are just experiencing the small dip before the rally (which was coincidentally related to SR for the last run-up as well).

That's one helluva coincidence! If I were a conspiracy theorist (which I'm not), I'd say that the FBI timed it on purpose. So that, ummm, .... I dunno why. But someday someone will figure it out and they'll make a movie about it starring Nicholas Cage entitled "National Treasure 18" and at the end, they will dig up the QR code with all of Satoshi's bitcoins out from under the United States Federal Reserve Building in Washington, DC.

EDIT: and it will turn out that Satoshi Nakamoto is none other than Ben Franklin who foresaw the Internet in 1770's, invented bitcoin, etched the QR code on the back of the Constitution for safekeeping, and instructed the Illuminati to unleash bitcoin and save the world when it needed it most.

A bitcoin saved is a bitcoin earned. That movie sounds amazing!

[sgk]

JulieFig, thanks for the graph!
You gave me a reason to HODL my Bitcoins!

[keithers]

Today was a slight deviation from the meteoric rise that we are all hoping for.  I think this will just end up being a slight road bump since we have been basically flooded with good news all month...

[greaterninja]

I say 1k before September.  June, definitely not 1k.  2-3k before January 1st of next year.

[lordoliver]

Hi all,

I posted this in the Wall Observer Thread, but thought I would just put it in its own individual thread for posterity's sake.

I whipped up the following chart when we were stagnant in the 400's (the blue line) and was waiting to see if the channel I arbitrarily assigned would hold, and it was a pleasant surprise to see the price hit the lower boundary and begin rising (the red line).



I also found that the bubbles (or peaks, if you would prefer to call them that) seem to occur approximately every 234 days (an observation already mentioned on this forum) - with the minimum time between peaks being 213 days and the maximum time being 235 days. Considering there have been six peaks, that is a very small degree of variability for such a notoriously volatile phenomenon as Bitcoin.

I then isolated these peaks and noticed that (bar the June 2011 peak), the others very closely follow their own exponential trend which puts the next peak at approximately $4,900 (again, aligning with other predictions being tossed around the forum).

If you extrapolate this trend further, it puts the March 2015 peak at a whopping $26,300!

One last interesting point of note... the run-up to the bubbles, whilst varying in duration, does appear to assume the same velocity. Assuming we hit the top of the channel in the next run-up, this price velocity has us commencing the notorious bull-run within the next 10-20 days. Is it just a coincidence that the 1w MACD crossover looks likely to occur in a similar time-frame?.....

Final disclaimer (before someone else invariably says it): Past behaviour is no indication of the future.

... but it sure is interesting...

TL;DR - If this expected bull-run does proceed as anticipated, will it be because we expect it to occur? And when the bubble pops, will this again be because we expect the bubble to pop? I would imagine any self-fulfilling prophecy effects such as this will become dampened as the number of users (and thus, sample size) increases?

In general this is what I also predict. But we can't hold this straight line, as the price can't go up forever. So we have a bending and a upper bound.

[okthen]

Hi all,

I posted this in the Wall Observer Thread, but thought I would just put it in its own individual thread for posterity's sake.

I whipped up the following chart when we were stagnant in the 400's (the blue line) and was waiting to see if the channel I arbitrarily assigned would hold, and it was a pleasant surprise to see the price hit the lower boundary and begin rising (the red line).



I also found that the bubbles (or peaks, if you would prefer to call them that) seem to occur approximately every 234 days (an observation already mentioned on this forum) - with the minimum time between peaks being 213 days and the maximum time being 235 days. Considering there have been six peaks, that is a very small degree of variability for such a notoriously volatile phenomenon as Bitcoin.

I then isolated these peaks and noticed that (bar the June 2011 peak), the others very closely follow their own exponential trend which puts the next peak at approximately $4,900 (again, aligning with other predictions being tossed around the forum).

If you extrapolate this trend further, it puts the March 2015 peak at a whopping $26,300!

One last interesting point of note... the run-up to the bubbles, whilst varying in duration, does appear to assume the same velocity. Assuming we hit the top of the channel in the next run-up, this price velocity has us commencing the notorious bull-run within the next 10-20 days. Is it just a coincidence that the 1w MACD crossover looks likely to occur in a similar time-frame?.....

Final disclaimer (before someone else invariably says it): Past behaviour is no indication of the future.

... but it sure is interesting...

TL;DR - If this expected bull-run does proceed as anticipated, will it be because we expect it to occur? And when the bubble pops, will this again be because we expect the bubble to pop? I would imagine any self-fulfilling prophecy effects such as this will become dampened as the number of users (and thus, sample size) increases?

In general this is what I also predict. But we can't hold this straight line, as the price can't go up forever. So we have a bending and a upper bound.

We have to bend, but I don't think it'll happen that soon.
As that one oter graph that's going around says, we're still only in the (very) early adopters phase.

[lordoliver]

Hi all,

I posted this in the Wall Observer Thread, but thought I would just put it in its own individual thread for posterity's sake.

I whipped up the following chart when we were stagnant in the 400's (the blue line) and was waiting to see if the channel I arbitrarily assigned would hold, and it was a pleasant surprise to see the price hit the lower boundary and begin rising (the red line).



I also found that the bubbles (or peaks, if you would prefer to call them that) seem to occur approximately every 234 days (an observation already mentioned on this forum) - with the minimum time between peaks being 213 days and the maximum time being 235 days. Considering there have been six peaks, that is a very small degree of variability for such a notoriously volatile phenomenon as Bitcoin.

I then isolated these peaks and noticed that (bar the June 2011 peak), the others very closely follow their own exponential trend which puts the next peak at approximately $4,900 (again, aligning with other predictions being tossed around the forum).

If you extrapolate this trend further, it puts the March 2015 peak at a whopping $26,300!

One last interesting point of note... the run-up to the bubbles, whilst varying in duration, does appear to assume the same velocity. Assuming we hit the top of the channel in the next run-up, this price velocity has us commencing the notorious bull-run within the next 10-20 days. Is it just a coincidence that the 1w MACD crossover looks likely to occur in a similar time-frame?.....

Final disclaimer (before someone else invariably says it): Past behaviour is no indication of the future.

... but it sure is interesting...

TL;DR - If this expected bull-run does proceed as anticipated, will it be because we expect it to occur? And when the bubble pops, will this again be because we expect the bubble to pop? I would imagine any self-fulfilling prophecy effects such as this will become dampened as the number of users (and thus, sample size) increases?

In general this is what I also predict. But we can't hold this straight line, as the price can't go up forever. So we have a bending and a upper bound.

We have to bend, but I don't think it'll happen that soon.
As that one oter graph that's going around says, we're still only in the (very) early adopters phase.

in fact we are bending already. look at the peak at about 350 days... the gradient before was higher, than it is now.

[UnDerDoG81]

Yesterday I've reaeded in an German newspaper that the euro is losing value because of some new law (don't know exactly what) and that investors are escaping from the euro to alternative investments. Even risky ones. So this could pump up the price a bit if they hear about btc.

[JulieFig]

JulieFig, thanks for the graph!
You gave me a reason to HODL my Bitcoins!

Happy to have helped .

The graphs do make it a little easier to stay rational during drops like the one just gone, that's for sure. I do wish I had been smart enough to do up all these plots before I bought in though. I had the 'good' fortune of buying at roughly $1000 (very close to the ATH). I have held through the subsequent drop and all the way down (buying some more to lower the dollar cost average) so I feel like I have earned my Bitcoin stripes.

I have never actually been around here for a proper rally (to an ATH) before though, and am really looking forward to it!

[DieJohnny]

Top trend line is too steep, we will peak in this next run up around 2400 sometime in October. Anything more or sooner is far too bullish.

[ajareselde]

until we see bitcoin trend going up again, there will be no new ATH.
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin

[Taras]

Thought I'd give this a little bump. I really love the chart (as a historical view, not just as a prophecy) and have been following it for some time now.

[JulieFig]

Thought I'd give this a little bump. I really love the chart (as a historical view, not just as a prophecy) and have been following it for some time now.

Much appreciated .

Here is the updated chart... we still seem to be right on track.

[snowdropfore]

looks like we are going to peak at 3000~3500,not 5000~5500. disappointed

[liexel]

looks like we are going to peak at 3000~3500,not 5000~5500. disappointed

me too.

[Dafar]

looks like we are going to peak at 3000~3500,not 5000~5500. disappointed

No, that chart means absolutely nothing. If anything everyone is expecting a bubble with the 234 bubble cycle prophecy, so it will either be delayed or won't happen this year. If it is delayed I would expect the bubble to be bigger than expected. Who says it has to follow one line or another? It can create a new pattern this time. The trend is already starting to diverge and will probably continue to for the rest of this month.



OP, why can't your original chart behave like this?



The bubble at the ~$50 peak went above the pink rectangle... so this time we could be below the pink rectangle for all you know. There needs to be a tremendous amount of money going into bitcoin to cause significant rallys unlike before. There is no block halving this year. Not to mention no one was expecting the previous bubbles to happen, but this time almost everyone is expecting it to happen. I just don't see it playing out in a predictable way

[keithers]

People better start buying if we want to have any shot at keeping up with this potential chart.  IMO we have a good shot at possibly hitting $700 by June 30, I think $1000 is a major stretch.

There are too many people on the sidelines waiting to take profits off the table, and too many people that bought in too high that are waiting to recoup some of their losses. 

[zimmah]

Top trend line is too steep, we will peak in this next run up around 2400 sometime in October. Anything more or sooner is far too bullish.

I think it would be around August, October is more than 8 months from the previous peak, so that would be later than the usual time between peaks.

[Thylacine]

So much has changed in the bitcoin world since the last big couple of run-ups, I feel it's too much of a stretch to expect these stratospheric rises based on the past patterns. I'm long on bitcoin but there's not this much fresh money coming in purchasing coins right now. A lot of the investment seems to be in infrastructure and businesses, which is even better - but it's going to take time for those ventures to mature in my opinion. It's not going to be June/July 2014, but hey I'd love to see $5000 USD as much as the next person.

[jamesc760]

Not going to happen this summer, too many people/traders going on vacation. Wait until September. Will hit $4800 by end of Oct'2014.

[bitcoinbelieve]

the real answer is NOBODY knows

[kibblesnbits]

https://www.betmoose.com/bet/bitcoin-will-pass-1000-by-the-end-of-this-year-247

Here's a chance to get some skin in this game...

[Arghhh]

https://www.betmoose.com/bet/bitcoin-will-pass-1000-by-the-end-of-this-year-247

Here's a chance to get some skin in this game...

Pretty much free money by betting YES.

[MICRO]

https://www.betmoose.com/bet/bitcoin-will-pass-1000-by-the-end-of-this-year-247

Here's a chance to get some skin in this game...

Pretty much free money by betting YES.

Hm... I would not be so sure about it .

[galbros]

These are some cool charts, thanks.

While obviously no one knows, I do feel good about this week.  The 51% Ghash.io situation is priced in, the FBI sale is priced in, the weekend is over, we are sitting pretty at 600 USD and China can only ban bitcoin so many times.

I feel good about the coming week, maybe keithers is right and well see a move up to 700 USD this week.

Good Luck! 

[Chef Ramsay]

There's plenty of big time money chilling waiting for whatever is left of the bears to exit and then you'll see them come aboard. Wall st phase coming up followed by the main street phase and this will push the next rally. Mass adoption will come over the next few years. It will come on strong meaning moon shot.

[okthen]

There's plenty of big time money chilling waiting for whatever is left of the bears to exit and then you'll see them come aboard. Wall st phase coming up followed by the main street phase and this will push the next rally. Mass adoption will come over the next few years. It will come on strong meaning moon shot.

Maybe the internet-street phase will come before, with ebay leading.
Then wallst will gain confidence and the rest will follow as you say.

[JulieFig]

These are some cool charts, thanks.

While obviously no one knows, I do feel good about this week.  The 51% Ghash.io situation is priced in, the FBI sale is priced in, the weekend is over, we are sitting pretty at 600 USD and China can only ban bitcoin so many times.

I feel good about the coming week, maybe keithers is right and well see a move up to 700 USD this week.

Good Luck!  

Thanks for the positive comments.

Here are the updated charts.

I have put the zoomed-in-current-vs-past-trend chart in date form and adjusted our current trend (by 3 days) so that the peak now occurs at the latest allowable date (based on past data), which is 235 days from the last peak. Coincidentally, if the price does follow this trajectory, the end of the relatively stagnant period we are in now seems to occur on the 27th June (the day of the auction).

Again, this is all just speculation (obv) so this could all very well be entirely wrong. Not long to wait to find out though.

[JulieFig]

Regardless, if a peak does occur in the next 30 days and follows past trends, it seems it will be slightly less than the anticipated $5000 and more around the $3000 mark.

Assuming the run-up velocity is similar to past trends, the overall log-scale chart also has us hitting a peak of around $3000 now as well.

Still, based on where we are sitting now, I don't think anyone would be complaining about a $3000 peak in the next 30 days...

[howardb]

Normally I would accept technical patterns as good indicators or hints at least of what to expect. But in the case of bitcoin i'm afraid it makes no sense
at all! especially at this stage of it's development. We are driven by events and news not trend.  Adoption rates create a trend in and of themselves, but there are far too many wild card factors moving this market to predict, not least of which:

a) Governments accouncements for or against bitcoin.

b) Mt.Gox type negative events (I'm personally expecting BTC-e.com to be a repeat of that, they are so cloaked in secrecy it stuns me anyone would ever send money there!.)

c) Retail adoption rates. This is accelerating, and the competition is hotting up in that space as the bitpays of this world try to establish themselves as no 1.

d) Global financial market, as it melts bitcoin goes up, try predicting when THAT will happen!

e) The emergence of regulation for bitcoin companies.

f) Remitance adoption, probably the biggest short term driver as this is the one that is so tangible and doable now. At the moment only 0.02% of the world are using bitcoin!

g) Individual country issues (Argentina debt default for example) citizens piling into bitcoin to prevent a repeat of previous collapse there.

The list goes on and on... and you want to try and predict with a chart??

[JulieFig]

Normally I would accept technical patterns as good indicators or hints at least of what to expect. But in the case of bitcoin i'm afraid it makes no sense
at all! especially at this stage of it's development. We are driven by events and news not trend.  Adoption rates create a trend in and of themselves, but there are far too many wild card factors moving this market to predict, not least of which:

a) Governments accouncements for or against bitcoin.

b) Mt.Gox type negative events (I'm personally expecting BTC-e.com to be a repeat of that, they are so cloaked in secrecy it stuns me anyone would ever send money there!.)

c) Retail adoption rates. This is accelerating, and the competition is hotting up in that space as the bitpays of this world try to establish themselves as no 1.

d) Global financial market, as it melts bitcoin goes up, try predicting when THAT will happen!

e) The emergence of regulation for bitcoin companies.

f) Remitance adoption, probably the biggest short term driver as this is the one that is so tangible and doable now. At the moment only 0.02% of the world are using bitcoin!

g) Individual country issues (Argentina debt default for example) citizens piling into bitcoin to prevent a repeat of previous collapse there.

The list goes on and on... and you want to try and predict with a chart??

Calm down, it's just a harmless little exercise. I'm more just curious to see how it goes, and I'm certainly not advocating basing trades on this prediction (for lack of a better term).

We all know bitcoin, the first phenomenon of its kind, is by its very nature unpredictable. Charts and whimsical predictions just allow us to think we have some measure of control over something that is inherently uncontrollable. Where's the harm in that?

[howardb]

Normally I would accept technical patterns as good indicators or hints at least of what to expect. But in the case of bitcoin i'm afraid it makes no sense
at all! especially at this stage of it's development. We are driven by events and news not trend.  Adoption rates create a trend in and of themselves, but there are far too many wild card factors moving this market to predict, not least of which:

a) Governments accouncements for or against bitcoin.

b) Mt.Gox type negative events (I'm personally expecting BTC-e.com to be a repeat of that, they are so cloaked in secrecy it stuns me anyone would ever send money there!.)

c) Retail adoption rates. This is accelerating, and the competition is hotting up in that space as the bitpays of this world try to establish themselves as no 1.

d) Global financial market, as it melts bitcoin goes up, try predicting when THAT will happen!

e) The emergence of regulation for bitcoin companies.

f) Remitance adoption, probably the biggest short term driver as this is the one that is so tangible and doable now. At the moment only 0.02% of the world are using bitcoin!

g) Individual country issues (Argentina debt default for example) citizens piling into bitcoin to prevent a repeat of previous collapse there.

The list goes on and on... and you want to try and predict with a chart??

Calm down, it's just a harmless little exercise. I'm more just curious to see how it goes, and I'm certainly not advocating basing trades on this prediction (for lack of a better term).

We all know bitcoin, the first phenomenon of its kind, is by its very nature unpredictable. Charts and whimsical predictions just allow us to think we have some measure of control over something that is inherently uncontrollable. Where's the harm in that?

You are misreading me, i'm not agitated at all! simply pointing out the pointless nature of the discussion. But I agree, no harm in it at all.

[trader001]

Don't forget government also going after gambling website which uses bitcoin.

[JimboToronto]

Don't forget government also going after gambling website which uses bitcoin.

Which government? Which gambling websites in which countries?

Why is this supposed to matter?

[the_poet]

All these prediction threads are hilarious.

[madmat]

Don't forget government also going after gambling website which uses bitcoin.

You seem to forget USA is not the only country in the world.

[Dafar]

All these prediction threads are hilarious.

This. Bunch of morons who have no idea what they're talking about

[ssmc2]

All these prediction threads are hilarious.

This. Bunch of morons who have no idea what they're talking about

 Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

[the_poet]

All these prediction threads are hilarious.

This. Bunch of morons who have no idea what they're talking about

 Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

I'll tell you a little secret: nobody can predict anything, unless you're the one (or one of those) influencing the market.

[Raystonn]

All these prediction threads are hilarious.

This. Bunch of morons who have no idea what they're talking about

 Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

I'll tell you a little secret: nobody can predict anything, unless you're the one (or one of those) influencing the market.

It sounds to me like you're predicting that nobody can predict anything.

[the_poet]

All these prediction threads are hilarious.

This. Bunch of morons who have no idea what they're talking about

 Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

I'll tell you a little secret: nobody can predict anything, unless you're the one (or one of those) influencing the market.

It sounds to me like you're predicting that nobody can predict anything.

This is not a prediction, but a fact.

[Raystonn]

All these prediction threads are hilarious.

This. Bunch of morons who have no idea what they're talking about

 Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

I'll tell you a little secret: nobody can predict anything, unless you're the one (or one of those) influencing the market.

It sounds to me like you're predicting that nobody can predict anything.

This is not a prediction, but a fact.

Assuming you actually mean that nobody can accurately predict anything, and not just make a prediction, you'd have to wait to see what happens in the future to check if you are right.  Making a statement about what will or will not happen in the future is a prediction.  So you've made a prediction.

[Skele]

We will see btc breaking through 100000 in 2016,

*-* posts like this make my tears off of happiness *-*

[crocko]

Hello !
What it is wrong with your graph?
You have predicted for the July 2014, a Bitcoin price of $4,900 or at least $1,000 ..
Here we are now in July, and in fact the BTC price still bouncing around the $600 

[hodap]

Hello !
What it is wrong with your graph?
You have predicted for the July 2014, a Bitcoin price of $4,900 or at least $1,000 ..
Here we are now in July, and in fact the BTC price still bouncing around the $600 

July is not over yet.

[crocko]

Hello !
What it is wrong with your graph?
You have predicted for the July 2014, a Bitcoin price of $4,900 or at least $1,000 ..
Here we are now in July, and in fact the BTC price still bouncing around the $600 

July is not over yet.

I like your optimism !
But I don't see any major event on the horizon which can affect the BTC price.
There is only one exception: Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF, but this will not happen in July..

[wachtwoord]

Hello !
What it is wrong with your graph?
You have predicted for the July 2014, a Bitcoin price of $4,900 or at least $1,000 ..
Here we are now in July, and in fact the BTC price still bouncing around the $600 

July is not over yet.

You ain't seen nothing yet.

Bbbbbaby you just ain't seen nothing yet!

[crocko]

Hello !
What it is wrong with your graph?
You have predicted for the July 2014, a Bitcoin price of $4,900 or at least $1,000 ..
Here we are now in July, and in fact the BTC price still bouncing around the $600 

July is not over yet.

You ain't seen nothing yet.

Bbbbbaby you just ain't seen nothing yet!

I agree with you guys, but I am tired to wait for that day when the BTC will worth "something".
At this price of $600, you can't do to much with a BTC. Even if you purchase an ASIC, you will never get ROI..
IMHO ~ $600 it is not a good price for the top coin of this world.

[Asrael999]

Hello !
What it is wrong with your graph?
You have predicted for the July 2014, a Bitcoin price of $4,900 or at least $1,000 ..
Here we are now in July, and in fact the BTC price still bouncing around the $600 

July is not over yet.

You ain't seen nothing yet.

Bbbbbaby you just ain't seen nothing yet!

I agree with you guys, but I am tired to wait for that day when the BTC will worth "something".
At this price of $600, you can't do to much with a BTC. Even if you purchase an ASIC, you will never get ROI..
IMHO ~ $600 it is not a good price for the top coin of this world.

Why would you buy a mining machine - buy more bitcoin instead. You will get more coins for your fiat buying at market, and get a better return if the price goes up.
That graph above is not fact, its a prediction based on prior patterns , predictions don't have to be right, patterns do not have to repeat. Have some patience.

[Morbid]

Hello !
What it is wrong with your graph?
You have predicted for the July 2014, a Bitcoin price of $4,900 or at least $1,000 ..
Here we are now in July, and in fact the BTC price still bouncing around the $600 

have patience and look around. argentina is defaulting, bulgaria experiencing run on banks, ukraine economy is in freefall, not to mention rest of the world that is slaving off for constantly devalueing fiat papers. the dollar reset is coming very soon. gold market iou is faked but you cannot fake the demand for physical which is now absolutely huge. once some big entity fails to deliver physical consider the panic buy on gold. fun times. be patient and prepare accordingly.

[btcbeliever]

have patience and look around. argentina is defaulting, bulgaria experiencing run on banks, ukraine economy is in freefall, not to mention rest of the world that is slaving off for constantly devalueing fiat papers. the dollar reset is coming very soon. gold market iou is faked but you cannot fake the demand for physical which is now absolutely huge. once some big entity fails to deliver physical consider the panic buy on gold. fun times. be patient and prepare accordingly.

This is definitely something to keep in mind

[BitchicksHusband]

Hello !
What it is wrong with your graph?
You have predicted for the July 2014, a Bitcoin price of $4,900 or at least $1,000 ..
Here we are now in July, and in fact the BTC price still bouncing around the $600 

have patience and look around. argentina is defaulting, bulgaria experiencing run on banks, ukraine economy is in freefall, not to mention rest of the world that is slaving off for constantly devalueing fiat papers. the dollar reset is coming very soon. gold market iou is faked but you cannot fake the demand for physical which is now absolutely huge. once some big entity fails to deliver physical consider the panic buy on gold. fun times. be patient and prepare accordingly.

The US already failed to deliver physical to Germany.

[Bagatell]

New Laws That Allow The Government to Seize Savings Deposits During a Crisis



"This is not conspiracy theory or some kind of doom and gloom. It’s basic fact."

[hodap]

The US already failed to deliver physical to Germany.

Good time to buy gold if this is the case.

[Skele]

July 14th and still $630  Hope those $1000 are reached before the end of this year, you have 5 months  

[BitChick]

July 14th and still $630   Hope those $1000 are reached before the end of this year, you have 5 months    

News of the new regulated bitcoin fund opening up August 1st (with an estimated $200M being invested during the first 6 months) should get the rally started nicely and put us over $1000 and beyond without much trouble.  Add the Winklevoss ETF to the mix?  I wouldn't be surprised to see us at $10,000 before year's end.

[bitrider]

  Rock on Bitchick!

[wachtwoord]

July 14th and still $630   Hope those $1000 are reached before the end of this year, you have 5 months    

News of the new regulated bitcoin fund opening up August 1st (with an estimated $200M being invested during the first 6 months) should get the rally started nicely and put us over $1000 and beyond without much trouble.  Add the Winklevoss ETF to the mix?  I wouldn't be surprised to see us at $10,000 before year's end.

Don't get carried away (although I won't complain if it materializes).

[BitChick]

July 14th and still $630   Hope those $1000 are reached before the end of this year, you have 5 months    

News of the new regulated bitcoin fund opening up August 1st (with an estimated $200M being invested during the first 6 months) should get the rally started nicely and put us over $1000 and beyond without much trouble.  Add the Winklevoss ETF to the mix?  I wouldn't be surprised to see us at $10,000 before year's end.

Don't get carried away (although I won't complain if it materializes).

Bitcoin likes to get carried away!

[wachtwoord]

July 14th and still $630   Hope those $1000 are reached before the end of this year, you have 5 months    

News of the new regulated bitcoin fund opening up August 1st (with an estimated $200M being invested during the first 6 months) should get the rally started nicely and put us over $1000 and beyond without much trouble.  Add the Winklevoss ETF to the mix?  I wouldn't be surprised to see us at $10,000 before year's end.

Don't get carried away (although I won't complain if it materializes).

Bitcoin likes to get carried away!

I was talking about BitChick, not Bitcoin

Time for BitChicksHusband to come in and take this away? 

[JulieFig]

July 14th and still $630   Hope those $1000 are reached before the end of this year, you have 5 months    

So, clearly my previous prediction was off...... back to the drawing board I went, and I've now re-evaluated the prediction. (And when I say 'prediction', I use the term loosely. Bitcoin seems to like to spit in the face of any predictions people make. And I say that with great fondness.)

The rationale behind the re-evaluation: The first two bubbles were 214 and 213 days apart, the next was 222 days later, and the last two were 235 and 234 days apart. All up, the interval between peaks is uncannily consistent. However, it appears that the interval is marginally increasing (again, this is all based on very few data points, so no rock solid conclusions could be drawn from this). Thus, perhaps the next peak will not be 235 days from the last, but more along the lines of 257 (an increase on par with the previous increase in time interval). This puts the peak at around 23rd August, which is what I have adjusted the following chart to reflect. Seems we are on track for a possible peak of $5000... If we don't continue rising though, I may have to hang up my 'Bitcoin-predictor' hat.



edit: fixed small error in date

[BombaUcigasa]

peak at around 13th August

17th August the least (more by actually looking at your chart). Also notice that there hasn't been a jump from the local minimum (which was 600 less than 2 days ago) and from which about 50 days are required to reach the peak (31st August if the rise starts).

[JulieFig]

peak at around 13th August

17th August the least (more by actually looking at your chart). Also notice that there hasn't been a jump from the local minimum (which was 600 less than 2 days ago) and from which about 50 days are required to reach the peak (31st August if the rise starts).

Thanks for picking that up. The initial date of 13th August should have said 23rd August.

Based on the tone of your comment, I gather you aren't too hopeful that we have begun the start of an ATH rally?

[BombaUcigasa]

peak at around 13th August

17th August the least (more by actually looking at your chart). Also notice that there hasn't been a jump from the local minimum (which was 600 less than 2 days ago) and from which about 50 days are required to reach the peak (31st August if the rise starts).

Thanks for picking that up. The initial date of 13th August should have said 23rd August.

Based on the tone of your comment, I gather you aren't too hopeful that we have begun the start of an ATH rally?

If it did, that was 2 days ago, if not, we have to wait a bit more. It's not really visible, is it now?

[BitchicksHusband]

The US already failed to deliver physical to Germany.

Good time to buy gold if this is the case.

I'll get a link.

This article explains it the best:

http://nsnbc.me/2013/07/31/mystery-about-germany%C2%B4s-gold-in-the-us-solved/

Hopefully that site is ok.  (I have NoScript)

[BTCtrader71]

The US already failed to deliver physical to Germany.

Good time to buy gold if this is the case.

I'll get a link.

This article explains it the best:

http://nsnbc.me/2013/07/31/mystery-about-germany%C2%B4s-gold-in-the-us-solved/

Hopefully that site is ok.  (I have NoScript)

I had not heard that story until running across it in this thread.

It makes Mark Karpeles look like a Boy Scout by comparison.

[ShakyhandsBTCer]

July 14th and still $630   Hope those $1000 are reached before the end of this year, you have 5 months    

News of the new regulated bitcoin fund opening up August 1st (with an estimated $200M being invested during the first 6 months) should get the rally started nicely and put us over $1000 and beyond without much trouble.  Add the Winklevoss ETF to the mix?  I wouldn't be surprised to see us at $10,000 before year's end.

I would say that $200MM invested in a new bitcoin investment fund would be more then what would likely go into such a fund. I would argue that more money would be poured into VC that would invest in bitcoin related businesses.

I do think that the ETF will likely push the price of bitcoin higher.

[dnaleor]

I have updated my log chart, maybe interesting to share
used data: bitcoinaverage (starting at 17/07/2010)

Log chart

Trendline: P = 0,1711645509 * exp(0,0059413348*x) (with x = number of days since 17/07/2010)
R² = 0.8952

Log deviation from trendline (log(trendline)-log(exchange rate)):


And finally... The exponential trend on a linear chart. Always great to see this kind of charts  

[wayshegoes]

Where do people pull all this data? I can't see it going much over $700 this month, and even that would be a nice bump.

[BombaUcigasa]

Where do people pull all this data? I can't see it going much over $700 this month, and even that would be a nice bump.

Where did you pull your data?

[dnaleor]

Where do people pull all this data? I can't see it going much over $700 this month, and even that would be a nice bump.

data: https://api.bitcoinaverage.com/history/USD/per_day_all_time_history.csv

the next weeks will be deciding. We will see if the log trend holds. If not, too bad and it will go at lot slower.

[wayshegoes]

I think it will be much much slower than most in here are predicting. We can't all get rich in a few months when everyone is believing the same thing.

[wobber]

I think it will be much much slower than most in here are predicting. We can't all get rich in a few months when everyone is believing the same thing.

+1

[BombaUcigasa]

I think it will be much much slower than most in here are predicting. We can't all get rich in a few months when everyone is believing the same thing.

What are your estimates based on?

Here's my source: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed.png

[fran2k]

Beautifully bullish my friends.

[BitChick]

Beautifully bullish my friends.

[wayshegoes]

I think it will be much much slower than most in here are predicting. We can't all get rich in a few months when everyone is believing the same thing.

What are your estimates based on?

Here's my source: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed.png

You reckon most of the BTC mined every day is being hoarded? It would make sense. Never really see that much volume on exchanges. I really hope you are right with your predictions, but I won't be that unhappy if you aren't. I can wait a little

[blatchcorn]

Where do people pull all this data? I can't see it going much over $700 this month, and even that would be a nice bump.

data: https://api.bitcoinaverage.com/history/USD/per_day_all_time_history.csv

the next weeks will be deciding. We will see if the log trend holds. If not, too bad and it will go at lot slower.

With Bitcoin the next weeks are always critical 

[IIOII]

It's nice to see a price graph going back that far in history (again). But I doubt that the prediction will hold true:

First, you have only a very low number of observed patterns.
Second, even these historical patterns show great variance in the amount of price movement.
Third, you have to take into account the fact that additional percentage gains become harder to achieve with increasing market capitalization.

[colinistheman]

It's nice to see a price graph going back that far in history (again). But I doubt that the prediction will hold true:

First, you have only a very low number of observed patterns.
Second, even these historical patterns show great variance in the amount of price movement.
Third, you have to take into account the fact that additional percentage gains become harder to achieve with increasing market capitalization.

Fourth, he's probably right.

[dani]

[...]
I can wait a little

this and

With Bitcoin the next weeks are always critical  

relax guys 

[BitChick]

Hey JulieFig,

I sent you a couple PMs but haven't heard anything yet.  There is a 100mBTC donation waiting for you on this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=720940.msg8142901#msg8142901

You need to respond in the next 6 days though to accept it.  This small "thanks" is to encourage you as you wait for your first real bitcoin rally.  It takes more patience than we would like sometimes.  I was really hoping we would be at that point right now but maybe it will be delayed a bit due to various things.  Hopefully soon though! 

[Possum577]

I notice that the horizontal lines indicating price per Bitcoin get closer and closer together as the price reaches the next highest milestone. This causes the growth line to appear more steep, or more of a "to the moon" trajectory than the lower prices in the range. This not only makes the chart movement more sensational, but it distorts reality.

Can you re-produce the chart with equal distance between each horizontal price line?

Thanks, it's great to see some analysis!

[Possum577]

The data is just pricing and time, there's nothing tricky about it.

It's the patterns that one recognizes or calls out that is completely subjective, BUT (caps on purpose) Google "Technical Stock Analysis" and you'll find tons of articles talking about the principles being used here to "predict" the future performance based on the past trends.

Where do people pull all this data? I can't see it going much over $700 this month, and even that would be a nice bump.

[Possum577]

Where do people pull all this data? I can't see it going much over $700 this month, and even that would be a nice bump.

Google "MACD + technical analysis" and you'll find the technical analysis rationale that the OP is using for this. The future may never happen as this chart indicates but his thought process isn't wild, without merit, or baseless.

To the OP, where can we see this updated daily or weekly?

[Possum577]

Adjusting the channel to fit the trend you're looking for would compromise the fact base of this analysis. If you start messing with the numbers to "make them work" you've moved farther from the fact, which makes what you're looking for even less likely.

Your channel seems to be based mostly on the last two peaks. In particular there doesn't seem to be much basis for the lower part of your channel. I know it's just an approximation, but have you considered using a slightly "bendy" channel to fit the data? Over time you would expect the exponential trend to flatten out after all.

Unless to da moon literally means I'm going to be rich enough to buy the moon