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K128kevin2 (OP)
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June 02, 2014, 03:48:37 AM |
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Hey guys, a lot of you have probably seen my website ( www.btcpredictions.com) which displays data produced by software that I wrote that uses artificial neural networks to try to predict bitcoin prices. The 24 hour prediction performs reasonably most of the time, poorly sometimes, but also very well other times. I am still working on improving the algorithm/model. Anyway, just earlier today I put up the beta version of the 2nd version of this bitcoin predictor. The predictions are much more precise (predicts price over every 15 minute period instead of 1 hour like the old one) and predictions are updated every 5 minutes! You can see the predictions here: http://www.BTCPredictions.com/NewPredictor.phpI'm haven't tested the accuracy of this model yet and I'm going to be tracking it over the next few days - maybe a bit longer depending on how things go. For those of you who are interested, please feel free to follow the predictions and track its accuracy yourselves! I think that it will end up being more accurate than the older predictions, but if it is not I will go back and do some more work to see if I can improve on it some more. Right now it's predicting prices to peak tomorrow morning around 10:30ish EST. We'll see what happens! |
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"Bitcoin: mining our own business since 2009" -- Pieter Wuille
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Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction.
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jamesc760
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June 02, 2014, 07:48:14 PM |
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$377.5 on June 22nd!
Sell your coins now!
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fonsie
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June 02, 2014, 08:03:15 PM |
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Just give it a rest with these stupid neural network predictions, I've checked the error rate a few times, after my calculations I saw that the error rate was somewhere close to 99.99%, the other 0.01% was just dumb luck. I did these calculations with my very own neural network computer located between my ears, just so you know it's pretty accurate.
Just tell people that you want them to donate bitcoin and click on the spam advertising, no need to waste your time and neural network.
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I decided to no longer use a signature, because people were trolling me about it.
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Arghhh
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June 02, 2014, 08:13:01 PM |
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$377.5 on June 22nd!
Sell your coins now!
Nice try, Mark Williams.  |
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jamesc760
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June 02, 2014, 08:13:40 PM |
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I don't think it's stupid. It's a worthwhile experiment. I believe kevin's neural network will become more and more accurate. Much more accurate than fonsie's head, in fact. You see, humans have emotions, while neural network doesn't. We all know how well emotion-based predictions turn out to be.
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zimmah
Legendary
 Offline
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1005
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June 02, 2014, 08:19:43 PM |
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your network is extremely bearish, did igorr help programming it?
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nickenburg
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June 02, 2014, 08:22:22 PM |
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This is actually a nice idea, im gonna remember some predictions for the future.
And I will compare them to actual data from that day.
I see however in the 20 days prediction, Bitcoin is not doing good at all in those 20 days.
Ill screenshot that and will compare in 20 days!
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PolarPoint
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June 02, 2014, 08:27:18 PM |
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Interesting work. I looked at the 24 hour actual/prediction chart, prediction is not bad. Are there any 1 month or 1 week comparison charts for version 1? Curious to know the accuracy of your neural network.
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fonsie
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June 02, 2014, 08:38:52 PM |
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At least let people know what timezone his hours are, it's all a big guess to me right now.
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I decided to no longer use a signature, because people were trolling me about it.
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Raystonn
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June 02, 2014, 08:41:16 PM |
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So, we're supposed to be $651-$653 now, right? I'm seeing $664 on Bitstamp.
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K128kevin2 (OP)
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June 02, 2014, 08:43:52 PM |
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The 24 hour predictions have done pretty well over the past few months. There have been a few mistakes but overall it has been relatively successful. There is definitely room for improvement though, which is what I've been working on. Keep in mind, guys, that the 20 day prediction is really just there for fun. It has a very high average error and really is far from reliably accurate. It does well sometimes, but I seriously doubt bitcoin will be falling under 400 any time soon, if ever. The 5-day prediction does quite a bit better but I still wouldn't call it reliable. Interesting work. I looked at the 24 hour actual/prediction chart, prediction is not bad. Are there any 1 month or 1 week comparison charts for version 1? Curious to know the accuracy of your neural network.
I'm working on longer term predictions for the new version (there is a 5-day and 20-day prediction on the main page using the old NN). I'm still working on this new 24 hour prediction too though. Another thing I'm working on is using a neural network to find the optimal buy/sell values to set when trading. I'm testing strategies by simulating trading starting with $100 at the creation of Bitstamp and seeing how much it profits by the end. I can easily get it to make around $7-$8k from the original $100, but if you buy/hold from the very beginning you get about $10,300. I once managed to get it to earn about $13,750 but I was stupid and didn't save a piece of data that would be needed to replicate that neural network. I am working on some promising strategies now though so we'll see how they perform! At least let people know what timezone his hours are, it's all a big guess to me right now.
As it says on the home page, the time zone is your current time zone from wherever you are viewing the site. |
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fonsie
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June 02, 2014, 08:43:57 PM |
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nope according to my clock we should be 635.8 in about 15 minutes
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I decided to no longer use a signature, because people were trolling me about it.
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K128kevin2 (OP)
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June 02, 2014, 08:46:42 PM |
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nope according to my clock we should be 635.8 in about 15 minutes
I don't know what you're saying but it uses Javascript to set those values, so if they don't correspond with your current timezone then it is a problem on your end. It's calculated client-side. |
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fonsie
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June 02, 2014, 08:48:40 PM |
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It's 22:47 at my end and your chart says that at 23:00 the price will be 635.8, so it's obviously waaaaay off, so your javascript code is dropping the ball seriously
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I decided to no longer use a signature, because people were trolling me about it.
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zimmah
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1005
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June 02, 2014, 09:14:03 PM |
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maybe someone should make a self-learning system if possible.
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K128kevin2 (OP)
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June 02, 2014, 09:28:47 PM |
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It's 22:47 at my end and your chart says that at 23:00 the price will be 635.8, so it's obviously waaaaay off, so your javascript code is dropping the ball seriously
lol dude the Javascript code gets the time, it doesn't calculate the prediction. if it was 22:47 on your end and the 2nd prediction, which had 23:00 labeled under it, said 635,8, then that means that it predicts the average price of bitcoin between 22:00 and 23:00 will be that price. Basically the rise in price just occurred earlier than predicted. It accurately predicted this rise in price, it just seems to be happening earlier than anticipated. |
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fonsie
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June 02, 2014, 10:07:59 PM |
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You can lol all you want, but it's plain and simple, not predicting it reliable to be of any use, but don't get me wrong, I wish/hope you can make it reliable...but as is the case now, people will loose money if they are dumb enough to follow your neural network as of right now.
Best of luck getting it to predict anywhere close to 90%
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I decided to no longer use a signature, because people were trolling me about it.
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K128kevin2 (OP)
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June 02, 2014, 11:32:18 PM |
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For anyone who cares, I just made a VERY exciting breakthrough with this! In simulating trading based on predictions of ideal buy/sell prices, I got the neural network to turn $100 into $63,764.98 over bitcoin prices for the past ~3.5 years! That is more than six times as much money as you would make by buying and holding the whole time! The buy/hold strategy turns $100 into about $10,300.
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Gingermod
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June 02, 2014, 11:34:13 PM |
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For anyone who cares, I just made a VERY exciting breakthrough with this! In simulating trading based on predictions of ideal buy/sell prices, I got the neural network to turn $100 into $63,764.98 over bitcoin prices for the past ~3.5 years! That is more than six times as much money as you would make by buying and holding the whole time! The buy/hold strategy turns $100 into about $10,300.
Awesome man, that's pretty cool. |
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K128kevin2 (OP)
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June 02, 2014, 11:37:01 PM |
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*Here are the points at which it decided to buy/sell - in unix timestamps (sorry!)
BUY: 1315983600
SELL: 1316508458
BUY: 1317055057
SELL: 1317055440
BUY: 1318095463
SELL: 1318831142
BUY: 1319104501
SELL: 1319104501
BUY: 1319451709
SELL: 1319631404
BUY: 1319842339
SELL: 1319875994
BUY: 1319883901
SELL: 1320000889
BUY: 1320447658
SELL: 1320601254
BUY: 1320943801
SELL: 1321310870
BUY: 1321523499
SELL: 1321543438
BUY: 1321715229
SELL: 1321877400
BUY: 1321892861
SELL: 1321977216
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SELL: 1322189061
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SELL: 1322528503
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SELL: 1322587545
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SELL: 1322781695
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SELL: 1322810618
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SELL: 1323162523
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SELL: 1323639998
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SELL: 1323764464
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SELL: 1324026474
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SELL: 1324330922
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SELL: 1324631897
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SELL: 1325166498
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