Beta version of new Bitcoin price prediction model!

[Gingermod]

Would be cool to see how you fair in a falling market. See how much you can increase your Bitcoin holdings.

[K128kevin2]

Would be cool to see how you fair in a falling market. See how much you can increase your Bitcoin holdings.

I haven't gone through the data terribly extensively, but it looks like it loses a bit of money when btc price is falling, but definitely a lot less than it would if it just held.

[Gingermod]

Would be cool to see how you fair in a falling market. See how much you can increase your Bitcoin holdings.

I haven't gone through the data terribly extensively, but it looks like it loses a bit of money when btc price is falling, but definitely a lot less than it would if it just held.

I didn't expect otherwise, that's natural. The question is, did you manage to increase your BTC holding? Not USD value

[K128kevin2]

Would be cool to see how you fair in a falling market. See how much you can increase your Bitcoin holdings.

I haven't gone through the data terribly extensively, but it looks like it loses a bit of money when btc price is falling, but definitely a lot less than it would if it just held.

I didn't expect otherwise, that's natural. The question is, did you manage to increase your BTC holding? Not USD value

Just confirming yeah it definitely did lose money sometimes... seems to have peaked just under $100k when it sold 86.290957 BTC for $1150.866848 each.

And yeah it did increase bitcoin holdings... it had just over 105 a day or so before the end of the data, but it sold them. At the start it can afford about 17 btc for about $5.9 each.

[Gingermod]

Would be cool to see how you fair in a falling market. See how much you can increase your Bitcoin holdings.

I haven't gone through the data terribly extensively, but it looks like it loses a bit of money when btc price is falling, but definitely a lot less than it would if it just held.

I didn't expect otherwise, that's natural. The question is, did you manage to increase your BTC holding? Not USD value

Just confirming yeah it definitely did lose money sometimes... seems to have peaked just under $100k when it sold 86.290957 BTC for $1150.866848 each.

And yeah it did increase bitcoin holdings... it had just over 105 a day or so before the end of the data, but it sold them. At the start it can afford about 17 btc for about $5.9 each.

Your project is definitely improving, glad to see it!

[Raystonn]

Did you train this on all available data, or did you leave some for forward testing?  You need to watch for curve fitting.

[seleme]

uh, it's very bearish 

[Gingermod]

uh, it's very bearish 

You're looking at the old version.

New version is short term, but very bullish

http://www.btcpredictions.com/NewPredictor.php

[K128kevin2]

Would be really sweet if you could do some simulations during the 6 month 'depression' we were in. I think that would get many people interested in your little cool project, including me.

I'll work on that, that shouldn't be too hard to do.

Did you train this on all available data, or did you leave some for forward testing?  You need to watch for curve fitting.

It trains on all of the data. I don't think it's overfitting because it actually has a relatively high average error by the time it's one training (something around 8%) but it's still able to profit. I'll definitely be testing it out so we'll see how it performs. Maybe I'll put it online so people can track its progress.

[seleme]

uh, it's very bearish  

You're looking at the old version.

New version is short term, but very bullish

http://www.btcpredictions.com/NewPredictor.php

yeah, just noticed it  

Will you add longer predictions soon?

[K128kevin2]

uh, it's very bearish 

Yeah to be honest, the 24 hour prediction on the main page is the only one that I would say is actually pretty good. The 5-day one is good sometimes but iffy overall, and the 20 day one is really just experimental.

Will you add longer predictions soon?

I am working on trying to get the new predictor to predict prices over a longer period of time. I am also working on the buy/sell price predictor though. And I'm also still working on the 24 hour new prediction, because it doesn't seem to be changing shape very much and I'm not really sure why yet. Ahhhh so many things to work on!

[Gingermod]

uh, it's very bearish  

Yeah to be honest, the 24 hour prediction on the main page is the only one that I would say is actually pretty good. The 5-day one is good sometimes but iffy overall, and the 20 day one is really just experimental.

Will you add longer predictions soon?

I am working on trying to get the new predictor to predict prices over a longer period of time. I am also working on the buy/sell price predictor though. And I'm also still working on the 24 hour new prediction, because it doesn't seem to be changing shape very much and I'm not really sure why yet. Ahhhh so many things to work on!

Did you do the recent test with the new beta?

Btw, sent you a donation

[K128kevin2]

Did you do the recent test with the new beta?

Btw, sent you a donation

Thanks a lot for the donation, I really appreciate it!

Is the test you are asking about the one that I said earned $60k? That was done using a different type of neural network, not the beta of the 24 hour one that is up now. It was done with a neural network I've been working on that predicts the highest and lowest price during the next 24 hour period rather than every price.

[bitswipe]

This looks great...an amazing creation you have done here.
How long did it take to create?

[K128kevin2]

This looks great...an amazing creation you have done here.
How long did it take to create?

Glad you like it

I've been working on it since around October or November 2013, but a lot of that was also just learning about Neural Networks. When I started, I really didn't have a thorough understanding of them, just a pretty basic understanding. Took a while to learn. Also spent some time learning php/javascript/html so that I could make the website.

[Gingermod]

Did you do the recent test with the new beta?

Btw, sent you a donation

Thanks a lot for the donation, I really appreciate it!

Is the test you are asking about the one that I said earned $60k? That was done using a different type of neural network, not the beta of the 24 hour one that is up now. It was done with a neural network I've been working on that predicts the highest and lowest price during the next 24 hour period rather than every price.

Keep working on that, I see real applications for it and I would be interested in supporting a more developed version.

[Gingermod]

This looks great...an amazing creation you have done here.
How long did it take to create?

Glad you like it

I've been working on it since around October or November 2013, but a lot of that was also just learning about Neural Networks. When I started, I really didn't have a thorough understanding of them, just a pretty basic understanding. Took a while to learn. Also spent some time learning php/javascript/html so that I could make the website.

Also in the little test you ran, how many Bitcoins did you have on Nov 30 2013 and April 10 2014

[K128kevin2]

Also in the little test you ran, how many Bitcoins did you have on Nov 30 2013 and April 10 2014

On Nov 30 2013 it had 86.290957 BTC. It's really hard for me to tell how much it had on April 10 2014 but it looks like probably around 127 ish

[Gingermod]

Also in the little test you ran, how many Bitcoins did you have on Nov 30 2013 and April 10 2014

On Nov 30 2013 it had 86.290957 BTC. It's really hard for me to tell how much it had on April 10 2014 but it looks like probably around 127 ish

Awesome stuff. Let's see how your new beta predictor (on the site) plays out today.

[samurai1200]

Excellent work. I've been reading The Singularity Is Near (Kurzweil) so anything neural network piques my interest