Bitcoin Mining Difficultly Increases - 5 years from now

[Get_Crunk]

What up everybody -

Trying to get an estimation for what the btc mining difficulty factor will be in 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 3 years and 5 years from now??

Best estimations I can find only include the next difficultly level but don't go any further.  Don't know how to figure it out myself obv..

Please help me   Willing to send a few chips on seals with clubs for solid detailed answer.

Thanks

[Remember remember the 5th of November]

In 5 years I am sure it'd be in the high trillions, maybe even quadrillions.

[KaChingCoinDev]

In 5 years I am sure it'd be in the high trillions, maybe even quadrillions.

Have you taken into account lessening block rewards (I.E. block halving)? Miners will be persuaded to stop mining or to leave to an altcoin.

[DannyHamilton]

What up everybody -

Trying to get an estimation for what the btc mining difficulty factor will be in 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 3 years and 5 years from now??

Best estimations I can find only include the next difficultly level but don't go any further.  Don't know how to figure it out myself obv..

Please help me   Willing to send a few chips on seals with clubs for solid detailed answer.

Thanks

Unless you can predict what scientific advancements are going to be made in the building of application specific integrated chips, it is nearly impossible to predict what the difficulty will be more than a year from now.  Any prediction would just be a wild guess.  You'd do just as well throwing darts at numbers on a dartboard, or rolling dice to predict it.

[Get_Crunk]

Unless you can predict what scientific advancements are going to be made in the building of application specific integrated chips, it is nearly impossible to predict what the difficulty will be more than a year from now.  Any prediction would just be a wild guess.  You'd do just as well throwing darts at numbers on a dartboard, or rolling dice to predict it.

So I don't understand what is significant about application specific integrated chips?  What are they and what is their relationship to mining difficultly?

Do you agree with this calculators estimates (in general) or do you think they are "throwing darts" - https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/calculator  ??

[epere]

Difficultly Increases is a problem for some ASICs that are designed to chew on a large chunk without being interruped as often as needed for full efficiency on p2pool.

[DannyHamilton]

Unless you can predict what scientific advancements are going to be made in the building of application specific integrated chips, it is nearly impossible to predict what the difficulty will be more than a year from now.  Any prediction would just be a wild guess.  You'd do just as well throwing darts at numbers on a dartboard, or rolling dice to predict it.

So I don't understand what is significant about application specific integrated chips?  What are they and what is their relationship to mining difficultly?

Do you agree with this calculators estimates (in general) or do you think they are "throwing darts" - https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/calculator  ??

Application Specific Integrated Chips (ASIC) are used for mining bitcoins.  They are computer chips that are designed to do a single thing very well, and nothing else.  Currently the vast majority of Bitcoin mining is done by ASIC that are designed specifically to mine bitcoin blocks as fast and efficiently as possible.

Proof-of-work difficulty in bitcoin is designed to self-adjust after every 2016 blocks to try to keep the rate that blocks are solved close to an average of 10 minutes per block.

This means that as more ASIC are manufactured, and as the technology advances so that the newer ASIC can mine faster and more efficiently, the difficulty will have to increase to adjust for the additional hash power added to the network.  The only way to predict what the difficulty will be years in the future with any accuracy at all, would be to predict how many bitcoin block hashing ASIC will be sold, and how fast and efficiently they will operate.  In other words, you need to predict what scientific advancements are going to be made in the building of ASIC.

[odolvlobo]

The difficulty will depend on these factors:
1. The block reward.
2. The cost of the equipment, power, cooling, and space (in BTC)
3. Advances in technology that affect H/J and H/s/BTC

[beatljuice]

The difficulty will depend on these factors:
1. The block reward.
2. The cost of the equipment, power, cooling, and space (in BTC)
3. Advances in technology that affect H/J and H/BTC

The block reward will be changing.

First we will see more transaction fees awarded to minors as more transactions happen from Bitcoin being adopted more widely. Right now we have almost no transactions compared to Visa, so we have almost no rewards for transaction fees going to minors. Then in a couple of years we drop to 12.5 BTC per block solved as a "mining" reward (coins created). Hopefully by then transactions will have ramped up significantly enough to replace some of the loss of coin creation, or the price goes moonward, otherwise we may have a mass minor exodus.

[btc-miner]

The difficulty will depend on these factors:
1. The block reward.
2. The cost of the equipment, power, cooling, and space (in BTC)
3. Advances in technology that affect H/J and H/BTC

Yes ,it is more difficult now to mining the bitcoin ,one day can get 0.1 bit coin and need 10 days to get 1 bit coin .use the (machine cost +power+cooling +space )/10days/bitcoin, it cost a long time to get back cost and profit .

we were discussing just now if we use the machine cost and all other cost to buy bit coin directly ,it is more easy maybe .What do you think ?

[Beliathon]

Miners will be persuaded to stop mining or to leave to an altcoin.

You could not be more wrong if your life depended on it. BTC will be so valuable in 5 years the difficult will be irrelevant.

This is like a Gold Rush where only a fraction of the prospectors realize the "gold" is actually diamond-laden Technetium.

[bryant.coleman]

It is very difficult to predict the future hash rates and difficulty.

In just one year (2013), the hash rate increased from around 20,000 GHash/s to 7,000,000 G Hash / s.

Now, it stands at 100,000,000 G Hash / s. May be we'll see 10,000,000,000 G Hash/s or more by the end of this year.

[FitnessRegiment]

It is very difficult to predict the future hash rates and difficulty.

In just one year (2013), the hash rate increased from around 20,000 GHash/s to 7,000,000 G Hash / s.

Now, it stands at 100,000,000 G Hash / s. May be we'll see 10,000,000,000 G Hash/s or more by the end of this year.

if that happens aren't all miners going to go down?

[Meuh6879]

if that happens aren't all miners going to go down?

if you have less miner farm (only 3 big big big farms for example), the lottery of bitcoin is more equal ... so, no, miners stay at the end because of the random recompense.

[RVienz]

5 years from now the diff is until tri-quad-octalions

cuz only 2 week the difficulty is up until 1 billion

[ujka]

It is very difficult to predict the future hash rates and difficulty.

In just one year (2013), the hash rate increased from around 20,000 GHash/s to 7,000,000 G Hash / s.

Now, it stands at 100,000,000 G Hash / s. May be we'll see 10,000,000,000 G Hash/s or more by the end of this year.

Can't see 10'000 Phash/s by the end of this year.
That would mean 30% increase for every next step (18x).
Average increase last 10 steps is 17%. Continuing with this 17% gives 1'000 Phash/s by end of year.

Another interesting thing with 10'000 Phash/s - with current best ASICs using 0.8 kWh per 1 Thash/s, bitcoin has to be valued at $5300 to cover just for the electricity used (at $0.1/kWh).

Edit: and using 8'000 MW of electricity, output of about 10 average sized nuclear plants:

As of March 11, 2014 in 31 countries 435 nuclear power plant units with an installed electric net capacity of about 372 GW are in operation

http://www.euronuclear.org/info/encyclopedia/n/nuclear-power-plant-world-wide.htm

[farfiman]

The difficulty will depend on these factors:
1. The block reward.
2. The cost of the equipment, power, cooling, and space (in BTC)
3. Advances in technology that affect H/J and H/s/BTC

4. Price of bitcoin

[KaChingCoinDev]

Miners will be persuaded to stop mining or to leave to an altcoin.

You could not be more wrong if your life depended on it. BTC will be so valuable in 5 years the difficult will be irrelevant.

This is like a Gold Rush where only a fraction of the prospectors realize the "gold" is actually diamond-laden Technetium.

So now we are basing this off of your personal opinion of where the BTC price will go?

[PedritoCR]

I hope I get to go much as I want to buy one and then if you go up

[Nawaytes]

5 years from now, because it is difficult for the mining, perhaps none more bitcoin mining.
because the high difficult, need more biggest hardware for mining and income slightly. may be many who switch to another coin.