Is Novello Technologies a scam?

[nbtcminer]

As someone further up this thread mentioned; it is best for the community as a whole if the majority of users (especially the older ones) don't support any pre-order model businesses. There are far better options in terms of companies who are actually shipping in hand hardware now.
With all of the recent cases of companies failing to delivery on promises of hardware, hash rate and on time, I simply can't understand why anyone would want to fund them.

tl;dr:

Don't fund an unknown company asking for "pre-order' money. It usually doesn't end well.

Re: http://www.coindesk.com/46k-spent-mining-hardware-happened-next/

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[2112]

It could actually be a group of people who all have the best of intentions and there is still little to no chance that it will succeed.

Highly unlikely that anyone there has "best of intentions". The way that the lead figurehead avoids, deflects and attempts to redirect any sort of technical questions is very telling. If you had combined 120 years of experience and even "moderately neutral intentions" someone from that team would be able to post some information how their product is unique, all without disclosing proprietary information. Especially something about "redundant engines" and why they improve mining performance. Remember the old maxim: "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence". Thus far you've received two references to college textbooks.

So this is probably a "virtual corporation" (a.k.a. "front") where the key technical information is in the hands of subcontractor and the subcontractor has not been paid yet.

[aerobatic]

It could actually be a group of people who all have the best of intentions and there is still little to no chance that it will succeed.

Highly unlikely that anyone there has "best of intentions". The way that the lead figurehead avoids, deflects and attempts to redirect any sort of technical questions is very telling. If you had combined 120 years of experience and even "moderately neutral intentions" someone from that team would be able to post some information how their product is unique, all without disclosing proprietary information. Especially something about "redundant engines" and why they improve mining performance. Remember the old maxim: "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence". Thus far you've received two references to college textbooks.

So this is probably a "virtual corporation" (a.k.a. "front") where the key technical information is in the hands of subcontractor and the subcontractor has not been paid yet.

i want to add a little note of support.  First, a disclaimer.   I am commercially unconnected with Novello ... i.e.: I've not placed an order with John, nor do i own any equity in the company, nor any financial nor commercial incentive etc etc etc.  I want to make it absolutely clear i am not aligned with him in any way.

That said, i have had several discussions with John (the founder of Novello).  Its news to me that his new company was even called Novello (that bit i didn't know) but nevertheless... I've chatted with him online for many months about this project, and also spoken by phone a few times (but haven't met face to face, which is odd as i live in london and i think he may do too, or at least in uk).

From what I know, I don't believe Novello is a scam, AND I have reason to believe that their tech claims are plausible and quite likely to be true.. i.e., a full custom 40nm asic, without any magic, would be capable of the power and performance that they're claiming.  One of the reasons i believe their claims are achievable is because they're not the only people i know who are making claims of this level of performance and power consumption in asics due in the late 2014 and early 2015 timescales.  I know of several other efforts in the same class.  I am also aware of other projects that have used 'magic' (i.e., creative technology) to achieve similar power and performance - without resorting to a full custom asic design (e.g. Spondoolies with their Cryptographic optimisations - btw.. anyone know what they are ?)

I also believe that its likely *if* Novello receive their funding, that they're probably capable of delivering a good asic, and that they seem to have good intentions.   What John said in his posts a few days ago is pretty much what he's been saying privately to me (and presumably a few others) for months, so this is not a rashly thought out concept.  He's been working on this a long time.

NOW, where i see the risk factors are :-

Its tough out there.  Bitcoin's pricing of late has deterred many from making pre-orders... and finding customers, investors or even investomers in this marketplace will be tough as its a crowded asic market.. with a lot of choice for customers, especially for miners available 'from stock'.  And people are more than a little gun-shy after numerous scammy companies or non-scams and well intentioned but poorly executed companies have failed time and time again to deliver to schedule or to-spec hardware.  even some who made good asics, had trouble delivering systems that best used the asics they had designed.  naming no names.  Some say its almost easier to design the asic than it is to design the complete system.

There's also the problem that many companies have fallen into the trap of pre-announcing a particular power or performance figure that they saw from their simulations and yet - when the chips arrived back from the fab - the reality falls far short of the simulations (AsicMiner was the latest to suffer this, but so have many others before them.. bfl etc).  Even the original BitFury chip delivered half the performance that Valery expected (even though it was awesome and a class leader, anyway.. at half the intended performance)

So.. take this as a +1 that i don't think Novello is a scam.  And that i think the guy is genuine.  And that i believe their tech is possible.   But put me as a doubter whether substantial pre-orders are even possible in this current marketplace (unless the price of bitcoin goes back up to its heady 1,000+ levels pretty damn soon)

-- Jez

[RHA]

At Indiegogo, Novello has chosen to use "Flexible Funding" which means they will receive all funds raised even if the campaign does not reach its goal.

[opieum2]

If they are serious about this they would be better off using quirky.com and solicit the votes from us there instead. No financial risk and they have a shot at making a product with real investment AND profit with minimal risk to anyone. There are plenty of people who would just vote on quirky.com. Seems like a MUCH better route to go.

[Bicknellski]

It could actually be a group of people who all have the best of intentions and there is still little to no chance that it will succeed.

Highly unlikely that anyone there has "best of intentions". The way that the lead figurehead avoids, deflects and attempts to redirect any sort of technical questions is very telling. If you had combined 120 years of experience and even "moderately neutral intentions" someone from that team would be able to post some information how their product is unique, all without disclosing proprietary information. Especially something about "redundant engines" and why they improve mining performance. Remember the old maxim: "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence". Thus far you've received two references to college textbooks.

So this is probably a "virtual corporation" (a.k.a. "front") where the key technical information is in the hands of subcontractor and the subcontractor has not been paid yet.

For the picture of what happens when "key technical information is in the hands of subcontractor and the subcontractor has been paid and the contract for exclusivity on the chip deal runs out" see Bitmine.ch. Very very ugly and quite a few people got burned on that and are still being burned.

[Syke]

So.. take this as a +1 that i don't think Novello is a scam.  And that i think the guy is genuine.  And that i believe their tech is possible.

But none of that matters. The only thing that matters is whether the team has the skills and capacities to actually see this project to completion on time with the right specs. I've seen nothing to indicate that to be true. Just the opposite. The lack of details concerning who this "dream team" is is a huge red flag. It's 99% likely they will fail and keep all the money for themselves.

[opieum2]

It could actually be a group of people who all have the best of intentions and there is still little to no chance that it will succeed.

Highly unlikely that anyone there has "best of intentions". The way that the lead figurehead avoids, deflects and attempts to redirect any sort of technical questions is very telling. If you had combined 120 years of experience and even "moderately neutral intentions" someone from that team would be able to post some information how their product is unique, all without disclosing proprietary information. Especially something about "redundant engines" and why they improve mining performance. Remember the old maxim: "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence". Thus far you've received two references to college textbooks.

So this is probably a "virtual corporation" (a.k.a. "front") where the key technical information is in the hands of subcontractor and the subcontractor has not been paid yet.

For picture of what happens when "key technical information is in the hands of subcontractor and the subcontractor has been paid and the contract for exclusivity on the chip deal runs out" see Bitmine.ch. Very very ugly and quite a few people got burned on that and are still being burned.

Hence the suggestion for the quirky route.....quirky would provide the manufacturing resources as its part of their business model. The risk would be weighed on by them and seen as viable or not. This would in effect provide a vetting process a professional vetting process for their model should it make it through the voting stage. They could in theory get the professional people on board they actually need if they dont have them to actually make this happen beyond the paper stage. The option is there.

[CanaryInTheMine]

No miners. No money.

Only way it could turn into a scam is if you add your money.

Bingo!  they want our money to build something.  we risk all and they have fun for a while...
Hell, if ya'll gave me 4-11 million, i'd deliver you a kick ass ASIC too yes, I have a team with a design too LOL)...
but I bet that doesn't align with everyone's risk tolerance...

however, there's plenty of suckers...

So, the right question is, Novello = BFL2.0 ?

[brian_23452]

So.. take this as a +1 that i don't think Novello is a scam.  And that i think the guy is genuine.  And that i believe their tech is possible.

But none of that matters. The only thing that matters is whether the team has the skills and capacities to actually see this project to completion on time with the right specs. I've seen nothing to indicate that to be true. Just the opposite. The lack of details concerning who this "dream team" is is a huge red flag. It's 99% likely they will fail and keep all the money for themselves.

I'll take it a step further and say that not even that matters.  Pretend they DO have the ability to create these devices.  That doesn't mean that any of their "customers" will ever get them in time to be useful!  They could potentially create these right on time, right to spec.  And then "burn test" them for the next 6 months.  Or any of a dozen other scenarios that see THEM making tons of money, but not their customers.  They don't want to partner with us, they just want us to give them 4.2 million dollars and then gtfo. 

[jimmothy]

Anyone still not convinced this a scam?

OP has written a short novel worth of vague evasive answers.

Tons and tons of claims and literally not a single peice of evidence.

This "ipo thread" consists entirely of 50% bold unsubstantiated claims, 25% self contradiction, and 25% ignorance regarding bitcoin/mining.

Even if this "team" is capable of designing/producing such an asic, they have demonstrated extreme incompetence on the business/PR side of things.


My final evaluation:

90% chance it's a scam
5% chance it's a real company which fails to deliver anything
4.9% chance this company delivers underperforming/delayed hardware

0.1% they deliver on time/on spec (being optimistic here)

[Majixagi]

Looking across the landscape right now it is just really hard to think about sinking money into a pre-order. The habanero is a pretty neat project if you can snag one. If BFL ever ships there will be a deluge of them for sale for cheap. Same with BA prosperos. The R60 project sounds promising. I suspect ASICMiner will change the landscape almost as drastically as they did last year. SP-Tech with their upcoming SP30 if someone still has a taste for a (less risky) pre-order, or their current SP10. Bitmain and possible updates to the S2. Plenty of other hashfast clones.

There's nothing compelling about sinking $500+ into a December pre-order. $59 for the novelty maybe, but if everyone thinks that way the funding goal will never be met. There are just too many other choices out there right now or in the near future.

I'm agreeing with the rest of the thinking here. It doesn't really matter if this is a scam or not, it is just too risky compared to the other options. They would be better off soliciting larger investors rather than customers at this point.

[Bicknellski]

Here is the reality.

Asicminer chips... will flood the market and crash the price of chips. Way less than $1 gh/s chips.
Spoondoolies will lead with even more power efficient chips and even cheaper units to mine with. Less than a $1 per Gh/s for a miner has already happened.
Bitmain will come out with more and more products. Way less than $1 gh/s for a miner.

The rest are irrelevant.

BFL is dead and has nothing to offer anyone anymore. Scam
Cointerra same. Disappointing at the very least.
HashFast same. Chapter 11
KnC builds for themselves.
BitFury builds for others with bigger pockets.
Black Arrow is too far behind to make a recovery.
Innosilicon A1 chips are already unprofitable to anyone building or buying these miners. They are not well engineer chips and could be failure ridden time will tell.

There is little room left for the small players.

Given that those 3 have really delivered and will obviously continue to deliver units and chips the idea that SHA256 coins are something to mine as a hobby or help "secure" the network is fantasy. If you are not building pools or shared datacenters that do PETAHASH now won't compete.

I am not sure what mining will hold for any small user in 2015 but I can predict this:

You won't mine at home.
You won't be buying individual self contained miners.
You won't be air cooling them.
You won't be measuring your mining power in Th/s.

The only game left will be coins that curb the use of ever increasing power and design efficiency / density. If you are still mining BTC at this point you are either still sufficiently invested or are just looking to offload your equipment before it goes obsolete.

The plan these guys at Novello are trying to sell is they can leap frog with 40nm and get you in the game. If you are not buying tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of dollars of miners you won't be in position to "compete". The end game for the individual with shallow pockets is here and most have already jumped over to other coins to "mine".

[Majixagi]

Thanks for that summary Bicknellski. The short of it then is that novello really shouldn't be marketing a $59 product unless they intend to run off with the money. It should be too low for them to care about and too low for anyone to really leapfrog into the game when they can only increase their investment 3 X past the initial investment. Someone with 500-50000 to invest has plenty of present day opportunity to invest. Someone with hundreds of thousands to invest in order to get ahead of the market at this stage would want more than an indiegogo "prospectus" so again it doesn't add up.

[taipo]

ButterFlyLabs fucked the preorder / high risk investment idea, killed it dead, dismembered it and put it on display for all to see. Much of the negative energy new startups get stem from what BFL did. People need a place to release it, new startups wanting to do preorders or finance their startup via miners funding them present a perfect target to be shat on and release some of that heinous shit that has been percolating since the Monarch...

The SHA256 mining community never let the world forget what BFL did, it needs to be written into the annuls of the history of Bitcoin, how they (B)e(F)udd(L)ed the mining community with their preorder scam.

Ironically, new manufacturers will probably need to find a bank that will back them from now onward. Get their prototypes built via the bank, then and maybe then, miners might feel the urge to invest in getting the first batch printed...or not.

[Meech]

My Want Ad Post:

Honest and Reliable company wanted to sell profit making asic mining rigs which are quaranteed to ROI within a month of delivery.  Miners in stock now and ready for shipment.  Easy flex pay plans available.
It is interesting to watch these small companies paying more attention for a return to the miner or offering ridiculous specs and speeds to make up for there lateness to their piece of the pie.  But I'm still drawn in somehow. Is it just me or is December to February delivery sound a lot like BFL?

[cooldgamer]

Just another scam company that will disappear in a month.  We would have heard of them by now if they were legit.

[Phinnaeus Gage]

On the one hand, if they had some kind of prototype to show off it would go a long way to show they are the real deal...also showing up at some trade booths making that investment on their own dime would be a good start....personally I am hesitant due to the other cases of pre-orders that went on....they are doing this on indiegogo with a shot at keeping the money they get so yea fairly suspect but that is due to prior experience

That being said tho I do have to comment on the blatant conflict of interest that some people have here who make hardware themselves to attack any newcomers....its poor form.....Seeing alot of shady behavior that should make anyone question what the motivation is for some to attack new companies coming on here. Should make one wonder who else is in on the take as a "corporate hunter".

I don't mine nor am affiliated with any mining outfit.

My assessment: A scam!

[Gogreen]

They have to prove something by sending some sample to the top poster here . Otherwise....