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Author Topic: 10/21 EMA has crossed! Weekly MACD set to cross up! Full Moon in 7 days!  (Read 6439 times)
piramida
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June 06, 2014, 07:23:57 PM
 #61


1w MACD just turned green? check.

Last gasp before a huge uptrend? check.

Flash crash that broke 23% fib level from ATH to bottom anyway? check as well.


I know... Silk Road crash. Can't possibly happen again. Once in a lifetime...

Bullshit. News matter, but price has a way to create its own news that matter.


Like I said, I don't expect it, but I wouldn't be shocked either if it happens.

Good points. Now that I think about it, every major bitcoin rally had some huge bad news selloff right before it.  Silkroad, pirate, something which happened before the rally to 32 which caused the dip to $0.8 Smiley Hmm (puts on Mat's conspiracy hat) - It's almost like bad news create a good enough entry point for a rally starter, who then sucks liquidity out of the market until it shoots up.

Or maybe people need to see that "really bad news" have only limited impact, and start buying, reassured.

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MatTheCat (OP)
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June 06, 2014, 07:27:55 PM
 #62

forget common sense....tell us what your dreams say...

Not had a good lucid Bitcoin dream since the one where Bitcoin was trading at $190 for a split second, and the next moment I looked, Bitcoin was trading in the $700s (Bitcoin was around $440 when I had this dream) and I just spent the whole time in the dream being unable to accept the price action as genuine.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=581956.msg6642826#msg6642826

In the thread I analysed whether the dream could be indicative of a turn in the market that my bearish emotional bias (at that time) was just not willing to accept. This turned out to be bang on the money and when Bitcoin broke above long term trendline at $460, I was only ever cautious bull, exiting the market as early as $520 anticipating pullback, and then in and out the market like a Yo Yo. Had I just held my $460 until this very day, I would have taken some 200% more profit than what I ended up taking from the market.

I was long Bitcoin a few days ago at $670. I had a dream that Bitcoin crashed right to $621, but when I looked at the charts again, it was back up at $676. I exited my trade. A flash crash did indeed occur (and indeed to $621......the numbers in my dreams are never correct), and I was in and out several times, at a loss every single phucking time almost, only to watch the market creep right back up to my entry position. I am a shite trader, and I know it. For this reason I ask myself. In the medium term, do I think Bitcoin is going up or down? Since I think it will go more up than down from here, I have just taken my $660 position and am done with it.

In the off chance that you weren't just being sarky, it may be worth reporting that I am not getting any spooked out Bitcoin dreams at the moment like I was getting right through the bear market and actually just before the bear market. So even though common sense tells me that Bitcoin will most likely correct at least $70 from here, my subconscious mind is for the time being, not scared of Bitcoin.

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June 06, 2014, 07:59:03 PM
 #63

I must admit, it concerns me to see so many bulls. On the one hand, most people can't be right. On the other hand, speculators set the price. Fact is that TA indicates a rally and it could happen once in the history of Bitcoin that most speculators anticipate the rally successfully before it begins. A funny twist would be that although there are bullish news all over the place and everyone expects the next big rise, the price remains the same for a longer period.

Right now the volume has been decreasing for the past days so a periodic breakout might occur during this weekend bringing us to 700. From the manipulators' point of view, it would be wise to hold the bubble back as long as possible and then suddenly buy the fuck in, causing panic all over the place. We might be experiencing such an effect right now.

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June 06, 2014, 07:59:42 PM
 #64

Would love to hear everyone's predictions of when BTC will reach the vertical stage of the S-curve.

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sgbett
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June 06, 2014, 08:22:26 PM
 #65

Would love to hear everyone's predictions of when BTC will reach the vertical stage of the S-curve.

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June 06, 2014, 08:37:46 PM
 #66

I must admit, it concerns me to see so many bulls. On the one hand, most people can't be right.

Bingo. At the very least, I think we need to shake out some of the exuberance. We could make a .382 or .5 correction down and feel a lot of despair. And yet the formation would still look very bullish.

And it would put a lot of the bulls into doubt over their "bubble by next month" mentality. Then if the downside movement doesn't materialize, panic to the upside could then ensue...

Raystonn
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June 06, 2014, 08:39:06 PM
 #67

I've been trading stocks, options, futures, and futures options for many years now.  I still have an IRA trading the S&P 500 e-mini (ES).  The rest of my funds are all in with Bitcoin.  I'll say that Bitcoin trading is at least one magnitude easier than ES.  But it's catching up.  You folks would do well to just sit back and hold at this point.  Unless you have a massive computer system that can do high frequency trades with a verifiable edge, you will eventually give all your BTC away.
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June 06, 2014, 08:39:55 PM
 #68

Would love to hear everyone's predictions of when BTC will reach the vertical stage of the S-curve.

Either 1.5 years or never.

                                                                               
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piramida
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June 13, 2014, 06:28:33 AM
 #69


I know... Silk Road crash. Can't possibly happen again. Once in a lifetime...

Bullshit. News matter, but price has a way to create its own news that matter.


Like I said, I don't expect it, but I wouldn't be shocked either if it happens.

And we have a SilkRoad crash... Again! Smiley SO the dip before the rally - check.

i am satoshi
oda.krell
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June 17, 2014, 11:36:40 AM
 #70


I know... Silk Road crash. Can't possibly happen again. Once in a lifetime...

Bullshit. News matter, but price has a way to create its own news that matter.


Like I said, I don't expect it, but I wouldn't be shocked either if it happens.

And we have a SilkRoad crash... Again! Smiley SO the dip before the rally - check.

It looks similar enough, but (on-exchange) volume doesn't fit. I personally believe we will see a local peak (that doesn't deserve the word "bubble" though) next month, but the overall theme will be one and a half step back for each two steps forward for a longer time still, imo.

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June 17, 2014, 11:50:25 AM
 #71


I know... Silk Road crash. Can't possibly happen again. Once in a lifetime...

Bullshit. News matter, but price has a way to create its own news that matter.


Like I said, I don't expect it, but I wouldn't be shocked either if it happens.

And we have a SilkRoad crash... Again! Smiley SO the dip before the rally - check.

It looks similar enough, but (on-exchange) volume doesn't fit. I personally believe we will see a local peak (that doesn't deserve the word "bubble" though) next month, but the overall theme will be one and a half step back for each two steps forward for a longer time still, imo.

SR crash coincided with the bottom of corrective wave 2. IF we are now in wave 1 (and not still in wave C), then we have first to reach the peak
of wave 1, around 750$ - 800$, then start corrective wave 2, which would take another 1 - 2 months to reach the bottom, so this IS NOT SR crash like.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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June 17, 2014, 12:19:04 PM
 #72

The problem with this thread is that the fool moon in question was the Friday the 13th fool moon. Any other full moon would have been valid.
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