10/21 EMA has crossed! Weekly MACD set to cross up! Full Moon in 7 days!

[MatTheCat]

10/21 EMA has crossed! Weekly MACD set to cross up! Full Moon in 7 days! You think Full Moon is irrelevant? Go and look at the Bitcoin chart history and see what Bitcoin generally does around the time of a Full Moon!

Bitcoin is wildy overextended at the moment, yet their are participants in the market who seem intent to keep Bitcoin supported within the 23% Fib retracement zone from the foot of the $420-$680 rise. Fearing a strong correction, I have been dipping in and out of the market since the $680 top, sometimes winning, but mostly just pissing all over my leg and my shoes. Therefore, I have taken what I have left in my Bitstamp account, turned it into Bitcoin @$660, and transferred it to an offline wallet where I can't do anything rash or stupid first time I see any signs of a negative indicator or divergence on the chart.

I speculate that with the alignment of the above long term indicators, that deep pocketed whales are going to ensure that Bitcoin receives a hefty ramp, perhaps instigating another manic rush into Bitcoin. The history is there. Everyone has seen what has happened 3 times before. When they see it happening again, what kind of gains are going to be in peoples imaginations? $2K? $5K? $10K?

MatTheCat has just went from cautiously bullish (which meant taking profits and trying to catch pull backs and invariably being left chasing the market), to full on bullish. I am a shit trader, so it wouldn't surprise me that now that my patience has broke and I have went long term long at $660, if Bitcoin pulled back to the $580 range where I had my buy-ins lined up, however, longer term, the only way is up here, and up a whole damn lot..............or will I prove to be the ultimate contrarian indicator when I turn bullish?

[1715615005]

1715615005

[1715615005]

1715615005

[1715615005]

1715615005

[1715615005]

1715615005

[1715615005]

1715615005

[blatchcorn]

10/21 EMA has crossed! Weekly MACD set to cross up! Full Moon in 7 days! You think Full Moon is irrelevant? Go and look at the Bitcoin chart history and see what Bitcoin generally does around the time of a Full Moon!

Bitcoin is wildy overextended at the moment, yet their are participants in the market who seem intent to keep Bitcoin supported within the 23% Fib retracement zone from the foot of the $420-$680 rise. Fearing a strong correction, I have been dipping in and out of the market since the $680 top, sometimes winning, but mostly just pissing all over my leg and my shoes. Therefore, I have taken what I have left in my Bitstamp account, turned it into Bitcoin @$660, and transferred it to an offline wallet where I can't do anything rash or stupid first time I see any signs of a negative indicator or divergence on the chart.

I speculate that with the alignment of the above long term indicators, that deep pocketed whales are going to ensure that Bitcoin receives a hefty ramp, perhaps instigating another manic rush into Bitcoin. The history is there. Everyone has seen what has happened 3 times before. When they see it happening again, what kind of gains are going to be in peoples imaginations? $2K? $5K? $10K?

MatTheCat has just went from cautiously bullish (which meant taking profits and trying to catch pull backs and invariably being left chasing the market), to full on bullish. I am a shit trader, so it wouldn't surprise me that now that my patience has broke and I have went long term long at $660, if Bitcoin pulled back to the $580 range where I had my buy-ins lined up, however, longer term, the only way is up here, and up a whole damn lot..............or am I the ultimate contrarian indicator when I turn bullish?

We will either have a big rally soon or a small one that will act as a launch platform for the biggest rally we have ever seen later this year.  Either way, now is not a time to be selling or shorting

[piramida]

I have taken what I have left in my Bitstamp account, turned it into Bitcoin @$660, and transferred it to an offline wallet where I can't do anything rash or stupid first time I see any signs of a negative indicator or divergence on the chart.

Wising up now are you, congratulations. About the thing I did two years ago moved most to the paper wallet to keep it safe from myself.

Leave some 5% on the exchanges though, in case you need to vent...

[N12]

I have taken what I have left in my Bitstamp account, turned it into Bitcoin @$660, and transferred it to an offline wallet where I can't do anything rash or stupid first time I see any signs of a negative indicator or divergence on the chart.

Wising up now are you, congratulations. About the thing I did two years ago moved most to the paper wallet to keep it safe from myself.

Leave some 5% on the exchanges though, in case you need to vent...

This is good advice. If it takes you effort and time to transfer the Bitcoin to the exchange, it's much harder to be guided by emotions.

[sgbett]

10/21 EMA has crossed! Weekly MACD set to cross up! Full Moon in 7 days! You think Full Moon is irrelevant? Go and look at the Bitcoin chart history and see what Bitcoin generally does around the time of a Full Moon!

Bitcoin is wildy overextended at the moment, yet their are participants in the market who seem intent to keep Bitcoin supported within the 23% Fib retracement zone from the foot of the $420-$680 rise. Fearing a strong correction, I have been dipping in and out of the market since the $680 top, sometimes winning, but mostly just pissing all over my leg and my shoes. Therefore, I have taken what I have left in my Bitstamp account, turned it into Bitcoin @$660, and transferred it to an offline wallet where I can't do anything rash or stupid first time I see any signs of a negative indicator or divergence on the chart.

I speculate that with the alignment of the above long term indicators, that deep pocketed whales are going to ensure that Bitcoin receives a hefty ramp, perhaps instigating another manic rush into Bitcoin. The history is there. Everyone has seen what has happened 3 times before. When they see it happening again, what kind of gains are going to be in peoples imaginations? $2K? $5K? $10K?

MatTheCat has just went from cautiously bullish (which meant taking profits and trying to catch pull backs and invariably being left chasing the market), to full on bullish. I am a shit trader, so it wouldn't surprise me that now that my patience has broke and I have went long term long at $660, if Bitcoin pulled back to the $580 range where I had my buy-ins lined up, however, longer term, the only way is up here, and up a whole damn lot..............or will I prove to be the ultimate contrarian indicator when I turn bullish?

I fully approve of this post! Especially moon + weekly EMA cross based TA.

Good luck!

[Miz4r]

Yeah I expected more of a retracement too, good thing I have forbidden myself from trading when Bitcoin is in an uptrend as I wasted lots of time and energy trying to trade during the November rally and only lost coins in the process. I will resume trading when the trend reverses again.

[MatTheCat]

Yeah I expected more of a retracement too, good thing I have forbidden myself from trading when Bitcoin is in an uptrend as I wasted lots of time and energy trying to trade during the November rally and only lost coins in the process. I will resume trading when the trend reverses again.

If you look at the reversal for each leg up, they have always stopped around the 23% Fib retracement zone and hit it within the first 2-3 15 minute candles almost. I am sure a bigger 30%-50% retracement will come, but when? Been waiting on it since the mid/upper $500s!

A good strategy for trading Bitcoin would be to move your buy-ins up in line with a 23% retracement as measured from bottom ($420) to the top. If someone has been doing that in the past 2 weeks, then they would have done very well for themselves, but having said that, now that this strategy has become obvious, it probably won't work that way anymore.

Shorting Bitcoin right now would be suicidal, unless you happen to be an insider of the whale entities who are deciding when and where to let pressure out the market. Only then could any trader expect to capitalise on any of the flash crashes which are mostly bottomed out within 30 minutes.

[MOB]

Perhaps all of the margin kiddies are still sleeping (6:28AM PST), but bitfinex swap offers are staying low and inactive.  I would have thought they would be surging up along with this break past that 640 barrier.

I am right there with you Mat!

[alexeft]

10/21 EMA has crossed! Weekly MACD set to cross up! Full Moon in 7 days! You think Full Moon is irrelevant? Go and look at the Bitcoin chart history and see what Bitcoin generally does around the time of a Full Moon!

Bitcoin is wildy overextended at the moment, yet their are participants in the market who seem intent to keep Bitcoin supported within the 23% Fib retracement zone from the foot of the $420-$680 rise. Fearing a strong correction, I have been dipping in and out of the market since the $680 top, sometimes winning, but mostly just pissing all over my leg and my shoes. Therefore, I have taken what I have left in my Bitstamp account, turned it into Bitcoin @$660, and transferred it to an offline wallet where I can't do anything rash or stupid first time I see any signs of a negative indicator or divergence on the chart.

I speculate that with the alignment of the above long term indicators, that deep pocketed whales are going to ensure that Bitcoin receives a hefty ramp, perhaps instigating another manic rush into Bitcoin. The history is there. Everyone has seen what has happened 3 times before. When they see it happening again, what kind of gains are going to be in peoples imaginations? $2K? $5K? $10K?

MatTheCat has just went from cautiously bullish (which meant taking profits and trying to catch pull backs and invariably being left chasing the market), to full on bullish. I am a shit trader, so it wouldn't surprise me that now that my patience has broke and I have went long term long at $660, if Bitcoin pulled back to the $580 range where I had my buy-ins lined up, however, longer term, the only way is up here, and up a whole damn lot..............or will I prove to be the ultimate contrarian indicator when I turn bullish?

I see gains right there in your post. You decided that hodl is the best strategy  .

[oda.krell]

10/21 EMA has crossed! Weekly MACD set to cross up! Full Moon in 7 days! You think Full Moon is irrelevant? Go and look at the Bitcoin chart history and see what Bitcoin generally does around the time of a Full Moon!

Bitcoin is wildy overextended at the moment, yet their are participants in the market who seem intent to keep Bitcoin supported within the 23% Fib retracement zone from the foot of the $420-$680 rise. Fearing a strong correction, I have been dipping in and out of the market since the $680 top, sometimes winning, but mostly just pissing all over my leg and my shoes. Therefore, I have taken what I have left in my Bitstamp account, turned it into Bitcoin @$660, and transferred it to an offline wallet where I can't do anything rash or stupid first time I see any signs of a negative indicator or divergence on the chart.

I speculate that with the alignment of the above long term indicators, that deep pocketed whales are going to ensure that Bitcoin receives a hefty ramp, perhaps instigating another manic rush into Bitcoin. The history is there. Everyone has seen what has happened 3 times before. When they see it happening again, what kind of gains are going to be in peoples imaginations? $2K? $5K? $10K?

MatTheCat has just went from cautiously bullish (which meant taking profits and trying to catch pull backs and invariably being left chasing the market), to full on bullish. I am a shit trader, so it wouldn't surprise me that now that my patience has broke and I have went long term long at $660, if Bitcoin pulled back to the $580 range where I had my buy-ins lined up, however, longer term, the only way is up here, and up a whole damn lot..............or will I prove to be the ultimate contrarian indicator when I turn bullish?

The last bear (kinda) has turned bull... This can only mean one thing :/

[spiderbrain]

I was super bullish, but now MtC has turned bullish I am more afraid than I was expecting, despite TA, fundamentals and a good degree of base nieve optimism. Matt, I hope your bad luck has switched, because for the first time I am agreeing with you, god help me.

[Dalmar]

MatTheCat will probably lose his shirt and sell out in the pre-bubble shake out (a la Silk Road). I foresee a China related bear trap soonish.

[oda.krell]

Snark aside though: good choice, I'd say, especially if you think your impulses get in your way.

I'm planning to continue trading, but I'm extremely cautious, if in doubt, erring on the side of being long. I briefly went short briefly after the first 680 peak, but bought back in again a day and a half later net neutral because I didn't feel comfortable anymore betting on another drop.

Which might still come, by the way. Retesting the first retracement level at ~530 is still a possibility, but that's more a thought in the back of my mind rather than a likely scenario right now.

[djangocoin]

Am agreeing with matthecat for once... 

[bitcoinsrus]

Finally nice to hear you turned around (completely). You made some great points (cross overs etc) Lets see what happens.

[Ultros]

My face when I realized the OP was actually MatTheCat:

[seleme]

I have been dipping in and out of the market since the $680 top, sometimes winning, but mostly just pissing all over my leg and my shoes.

In same shoes really, should have just buy and hold.

[Wexlike]

i bought in at 378$,438$,450$ and 495$ - as much as i could. this will be my first bitcoin rally that i experience from the beginning. i m so excited ! it s nice to see mat turning into a bull

[MOB]

We need some whale blubber to light this fire!

[bitrider]

Matt you are one entertaining guy. I do appreciate your honesty with how bad a trader you are - you've never hid your constant failures from us. The truth is most everybody here is a shitty trader - myself included. It just takes some of us longer and more losses (lesson fees) to admit it to ourselves (it took me many, many years and lots of $  ).

It does make me a little nervous that you are on board this train, but I think btc fundamentals and technicals are strong enough to handle even that. 
Good luck, brother...
 

[BitcoinBobbeh]

Did MTC just say "Moon?"

GET YOUR HELMETS UVERYBODY

[Carra23]

Matt you are one entertaining guy. I do appreciate your honesty with how bad a trader you are - you've never hid your constant failures from us. The truth is most everybody here is a shitty trader - myself included. It just takes some of us longer and more losses (lesson fees) to admit it to ourselves (it took me many, many years and lots of $  ).

It does make me a little nervous that you are on board this train, but I think btc fundamentals and technicals are strong enough to handle even that. 
Good luck, brother...
 

I still do not feel its a rally yet. Still every morning checking the prices makes me happy.

[spazzdla]

..

F IT!

I am buying btc friday.

[HeliKopterBen]

Dammit Matt.  I was looking forward to riding this trend up.  Now that you have turned bullish, I have to put my worry cap back on.

[Dafar]

CatTheMat lol

[toknormal]

Even eBay and Paypal have turned bullish...

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000281677

[zimmah]

quite funny when i realized this was from mat.

[scarsbergholden]

So wait. Just about everyone has now turned full on bullish? Hmm, maybe I have to rethink my short term outlook. Was thinking down to 630, up past 700. Now maybe we will actually retrace back to the 500s.

[MatTheCat]

Which might still come, by the way. Retesting the first retracement level at ~530 is still a possibility, but that's more a thought in the back of my mind rather than a likely scenario right now.

Every ounce of common sense in my head tells me that Bitcoin is more likely than not to test the 32% Fib retracement ratio at $580, but then again, I have been operating under this premise from $520 when I sold my $460 position to take profits in front of a 2K BTC wall on Stamp........that was simply taken down 5 minutes later. Now that I have bit the bullet and put my BTC out of easy reach, 'common sense' will most likely prevail and Bitcoin will indeed test the 32% Fib retracement at ~$580. That would fucking piss me off but I would just have to grin and bear it because holding out for it up until now has cost me. I was sleeping at the $540 breakout point, but I have made entries at $571, $600, $630, etc, all of which I have folded for peanuts profit, in anticipation of the 'correction'. Right now, I would swap any one of those entry points for my current $660.

I really don't think that Bitcoin will test the trend at $530. With the long term indicators on the weekly chart all conspiring, to show a buy signal, who is gonna sell their BTC that low? Somehow, I doubt that there are many short sellers and on Bitfinex, the main leveraged trading site, there has already been huge profit taking on two occasions and 23% Fib level was as far is it got, twice.  

I also believe that there are forces at work intentionally engineering this ramp. Whales or perhaps a single whale entity, who sees the potential and the opportunity to ramp Bitcoin through the roof, now we are at the otherside of a brutal bear market and with the tailwinds of the long term momentum indicators at Bitcoin's back.

It does make me a little nervous that you are on board this train, but I think btc fundamentals and technicals are strong enough to handle even that.  
Good luck, brother...

Be nervous. I have the luck of sod on my side. Even when I get it spot on right, my impulsive nature generally see's to it that I fuck it up somehow or another. The fact that I have committed myself to a long with BTC in offline wallet, probably means that $80-$100 correction is on the cards. Such a correction would make total sense from an EW analysts point of view and would set the scene for an über-bullish Wave (iii)  of a Wave [III]. I have had buy-in tranches down at $580 range for days, but my patience broke and I bought in at $660. Almost everytime I do that, I regret it and my original vision of the market comes to pass.

Edit: On 4Hr chart, RSI, and OBV, are screaming negative divergence and a stronger correction than just to $620.....Daily indicators are also all looking pretty damn maxed out and suggesting a strong correction, but then with the Weekly indicators all about to give buy signals, perhaps there won't be enough selling pressure for a good correction? Who is really going to want to sell if they believe that the next mania is coming around the mountain?

[bitrider]

  Well, actually I don't think the 80 or 100 drop is that unlikely. It is very possible - particularly a flash crash, or false start of sorts. But as you know, that is small potatoes and won't last long. The boom to come will make that truly insignificant. Lift off - 1 week, 3 weeks, even a month or two...not a problem. I love your full moon reference - could be right. I've been watching that myself for over a year now. Let's ride!

[MatTheCat]

Well, actually I don't think the 80 or 100 drop is that unlikely. It is very possible - particularly a flash crash, or false start of sorts. But as you know, that is small potatoes and won't last long. The boom to come will make that truly insignificant. Lift off - 1 week, 3 weeks, even a month or two...not a problem. I love your full moon reference - could be right. I've been watching that myself for over a year now. Let's ride!

I think a correction to $580 is also very likely, but if I weren't to buy in, and I wake up one morning with Huobi having instigated a Bitcoin ramp up through the $700 mark, then I would really well and truly piss my pants. I can't win. I am just gonna have to be prepared to take the pain when it comes, if it comes, which it probably will.

Regarding the moon, go and check the charts and the moon phases. Full moons tend to coincide with market lift-off, dark moons with sell-offs. 100% record since the sell-off accompanying the dark moon in March 2014 and a good statistical coincidence before that and indeed right through Bitcoin's history.

[Raystonn]

If you look very closely you can see a large BTC on the surface of the moon.  It explains everything.

[spazzdla]

Well, actually I don't think the 80 or 100 drop is that unlikely. It is very possible - particularly a flash crash, or false start of sorts. But as you know, that is small potatoes and won't last long. The boom to come will make that truly insignificant. Lift off - 1 week, 3 weeks, even a month or two...not a problem. I love your full moon reference - could be right. I've been watching that myself for over a year now. Let's ride!

Go and check the charts and the moon phases. Full moons tend to coincide with market lift-off, dark moons with sell-offs. 100% record since the sell-off accompanying the dark moon in March 2014 and a good statistical coincidence before that and indeed right through Bitcoin's history.

This is awesome... ya buying tomorrow.

[Argwai96]

Often times the bears and the cautious bulls get really bullish at the very top. Just sayin'. It's bitcoin and will probably rocket to the moon. But just because it will hurt so many, that retrace might happen.

[BTCtrader71]

Good move Mat! Just in time for favorable comments by eBay CEO -- very bullish from a fundamentals analysis perspective!

[oda.krell]

I really don't think that Bitcoin will test the trend at $530. With the long term indicators on the weekly chart all conspiring, to show a buy signal, who is gonna sell their BTC that low? Somehow, I doubt that there are many short sellers and on Bitfinex, the main leveraged trading site, there has already been huge profit taking on two occasions and 23% Fib level was as far is it got, twice.  

Why not?

May I present to you: the Oct 2 crash.



1w MACD just turned green? check.

Last gasp before a huge uptrend? check.

Flash crash that broke 23% fib level from ATH to bottom anyway? check as well.


I know... Silk Road crash. Can't possibly happen again. Once in a lifetime...

Bullshit. News matter, but price has a way to create its own news that matter.


Like I said, I don't expect it, but I wouldn't be shocked either if it happens.

[bitrider]

Exactly. The price and news are neither wholly causal nor wholly dependent - but most often co-creative. 

But is there a deeper attractor field pattern? That's what we all really want to know...

[ampere9765]

Kinda hoping for a SR type crash. I sold some in the 650s, 680s. Haven't bought back because I want to either see a higher low first before another push upwards, or a nice selloff.

[ampere9765]

Nah we need news to move it like that.
no terrible news = no silk road type crash before the bubble

When I try to see the bull case, I get nervous looking at how much BFX longs there are, and how much BFX pushed this massive rise on Stamp (probably on margin). Those have to get closed sometime.

[MatTheCat]

Nah we need news to move it like that.
no terrible news = no silk road type crash before the bubble

When I try to see the bull case, I get nervous looking at how much BFX longs there are, and how much BFX pushed this massive rise on Stamp (probably on margin). Those have to get closed sometime.

And where does one acquire information on the level of BFX longs?

There has already been a lot of profit taking on Bitfinex. Both the $680-$620 crashes were Bitfinex inspired with each of the red 4hr candles over the price slide being 15K BTC strong.

Their equivalents on Bitstamp were 11K, and then 9K, but then much of this volume could also include Bitfinex volume.

[ampere9765]

Nah we need news to move it like that.
no terrible news = no silk road type crash before the bubble

When I try to see the bull case, I get nervous looking at how much BFX longs there are, and how much BFX pushed this massive rise on Stamp (probably on margin). Those have to get closed sometime.

And where does one acquire information on the level of BFX longs?

There has already been a lot of profit taking on Bitfinex. Both the $680-$620 crashes were Bitfinex inspired with each of the red 4hr candles over the price slide being 15K BTC strong.

Their equivalents on Bitstamp were 11K, and then 9K, but then much of this volume could also include Bitfinex volume.

https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/stats

Longs rose from a bit over 20 million to over 22 million USD since that test of 615 level. So much leverage. If we bubble up, it's all good. If bulls keep getting rejected.....long squeeze.

[zimmah]

Still a lot of short term bears thinking the price will go below $650.

My advice is don't count on it to happen.

[MatTheCat]

Still a lot of short term bears thinking the price will go below $650.

My advice is don't count on it to happen.

I think it will go down to $580. But I amn't counting on it so went long term long at $660.

[FattyMcButterpants]

Still a lot of short term bears thinking the price will go below $650.

My advice is don't count on it to happen.

my advice is don't plan on a correction never happening. i'm watching the 590 level closely (.382), also 560 (.500). if those levels fail, could be that the rally is failing.

[sgbett]

I'd give about a 90% probability to some tree shaking.

If wall street really is coming into the market, then I don't think things will ever be as easy as

1. Hold to moon.
2. ride out pullback.
3. repeat

Those days are gone. Its going to be a hard ass test of nerve from here on in. I think we'll hit those lofty 4 or maybe 5 figure targets in the fullness of time, but I think its going to be a bloody mess all the way up with whipsaws, jitters and stop farming all the way. Thats the way wall st plays, get ready to feel the fear.

If anyone thought holding through ~31, ~266 and ~1400 was hard, prepare for shake-a-geddon.

(imho)

[T.Stuart]

I have taken what I have left in my Bitstamp account, turned it into Bitcoin @$660, and transferred it to an offline wallet.

From your previous posts regarding your Bitstamp balances you now have IMHO a not-so-bad chance of becoming a millionaire in fiat terms... provided you bury the keys to your wallet in concrete and then go on that overseas trip you were talking about a while ago. 

[Miz4r]

If anyone thought holding through ~31, ~266 and ~1400 was hard, prepare for shake-a-geddon.

(imho)

I think even with Wall Str moving in volatility will go down on average because the market is getting bigger and moving out of penny stock territory. Holding after 32 was by far the hardest one for people who bought during that bubble, great respect for those who have managed to pull through that one. I'm a 266 bubble veteran, which was also a pretty tough one but nothing compared to the 32 bubble. The 1163 bubble was the easiest to hold through I think, so the current trend is that bubbles are getting relatively smaller and the subsequent shakeouts less harsh. I don't think that trend is going to reverse.

[tupelo]

Agreed. With larger fiat input sum the volatility should decrease over time

[oda.krell]

I'd give about a 90% probability to some tree shaking.

If wall street really is coming into the market, then I don't think things will ever be as easy as

1. Hold to moon.
2. ride out pullback.
3. repeat

Those days are gone. Its going to be a hard ass test of nerve from here on in. I think we'll hit those lofty 4 or maybe 5 figure targets in the fullness of time, but I think its going to be a bloody mess all the way up with whipsaws, jitters and stop farming all the way. Thats the way wall st plays, get ready to feel the fear.

If anyone thought holding through ~31, ~266 and ~1400 was hard, prepare for shake-a-geddon.

(imho)

I agree with that.

There's a similar thought I had, which probably in effect matches yours: the complexity of the market increases over time.

(where "complexity" is not a well defined concept I admit, but rather the intuition that simple methods and trading styles are made obsolete by more sophisticated ones)

Case 1: As a trader, you could have been riding out the 2011 bear market with almost perfect accuracy based on a 1 month EMA alone! Just that: one (exponential) moving average. Stay short while below, buy back once break through. Doing that, you would have sold almost perfectly at the top, and bought back almost perfectly at the bottom.

Case 2: Try the above in April 2013. You will fail badly. Whipsawing above and below the 30d EMA several times. But okay: some methods that aren't /much/ more complex worked pretty well (triangle breakout, daily CMF, fib levels) gave a pretty clear signal to me, from around $90 in July, that we were out of the correction.

Case 3: Try the above in 2014. 2 major swings that, at the time, looked like reversals, and both times, we went back to the low point again (400s), and in the last one made a new low.  Not saying that TA doesn't work anymore, but I'm a lot more confused now than I was about a year ago.


What I'm trying to say is: I don't know if volatility will increase or decrease as a result of W.St. entering the game, but I expect the landscape for successful trading strategies to change: the "easy" ways to identify the bubble cycles, and sell near the top, buy back at the end of the correction, won't cut it anymore.

[kehtolo]

Damnit Oda... this is exactly what i was planning on doing .. this time.
I just held onto everything last time. And just when i think I've learned 'how it works' you guys come along and tell me it's going to be different this time.

Boo Hoo..

[sgbett]

I'd give about a 90% probability to some tree shaking.

If wall street really is coming into the market, then I don't think things will ever be as easy as

1. Hold to moon.
2. ride out pullback.
3. repeat

Those days are gone. Its going to be a hard ass test of nerve from here on in. I think we'll hit those lofty 4 or maybe 5 figure targets in the fullness of time, but I think its going to be a bloody mess all the way up with whipsaws, jitters and stop farming all the way. Thats the way wall st plays, get ready to feel the fear.

If anyone thought holding through ~31, ~266 and ~1400 was hard, prepare for shake-a-geddon.

(imho)

I agree with that.

There's a similar thought I had, which probably in effect matches yours: the complexity of the market increases over time.

(where "complexity" is not a well defined concept I admit, but rather the intuition that simple methods and trading styles are made obsolete by more sophisticated ones)

Case 1: As a trader, you could have been riding out the 2011 bear market with almost perfect accuracy based on a 1 month EMA alone! Just that: one (exponential) moving average. Stay short while below, buy back once break through. Doing that, you would have sold almost perfectly at the top, and bought back almost perfectly at the bottom.

Case 2: Try the above in April 2013. You will fail badly. Whipsawing above and below the 30d EMA several times. But okay: some methods that aren't /much/ more complex worked pretty well (triangle breakout, daily CMF, fib levels) gave a pretty clear signal to me, from around $90 in July, that we were out of the correction.

Case 3: Try the above in 2014. 2 major swings that, at the time, looked like reversals, and both times, we went back to the low point again (400s), and in the last one made a new low.  Not saying that TA doesn't work anymore, but I'm a lot more confused now than I was about a year ago.


What I'm trying to say is: I don't know if volatility will increase or decrease as a result of W.St. entering the game, but I expect the landscape for successful trading strategies to change: the "easy" ways to identify the bubble cycles, and sell near the top, buy back at the end of the correction, won't cut it anymore.

Yes indeed agree with this entirely. Complexity will drive out the naive traders, eating away at their profits or making them exit completely, all of which acheives wall st. goal of acquiring coins. It doesn't need huge swings (in fact those were easier to trade allegedly) it needs unpredictability. Just like real markets. I've tried trading in real markets and it burnssss ussss precious

That's why, as I do with equities, I buy good companies at fair value (I'm mostly in AAPL and BRK) and hold them forever. Bitcoin is a great company at (imho) at an unbelievable price. From a buy and hold perspective its a great investment.

From a trading point of view, I think it is soon to become one of the crowd. Good luck traders!

[Ibian]

SSS + buyback on dips. Doesn't matter what the price does, I benefit one way or another . In fact, the more volatile the better in the long run.

[MatTheCat]

Yes indeed agree with this entirely. Complexity will drive out the naive traders, eating away at their profits or making them exit completely, all of which acheives wall st. goal of acquiring coins. It doesn't need huge swings (in fact those were easier to trade allegedly) it needs unpredictability. Just like real markets. I've tried trading in real markets and it burnssss ussss precious

That's why, as I do with equities, I buy good companies at fair value (I'm mostly in AAPL and BRK) and hold them forever. Bitcoin is a great company at (imho) at an unbelievable price. From a buy and hold perspective its a great investment.

From a trading point of view, I think it is soon to become one of the crowd. Good luck traders!

Yet on the otherhand, many veteran traders don't recommend trading Bitcoin to n00bs (even though probs most people trading Bitcoin are n00bs). They reckon it is far too volatile and unpredictable and perhaps they have a point. A market that is traded mostly by inexperienced gullibles, yet dominated by sharks who have the market cornered and no doubt have 'couthie' relationships with the large exchanges and can boss the Bitcoin market around like a bitch, is going to be a notorious market for the masses being wrongfooted and fleeced.

Perhaps we are about to see a fine example of that within the next few days, when Bitcoin breaks out from this apparent 'bull flag' (despite the already massive gains), and the weekly MACD and 10/21 MA cross over to the upside, and all the noobs pile in, the sharks will choose this moment to capitalise and cash out of their BTC, crashing the market right back down to $500s causing widespread panic selling across the whole market in everyone except them, as they start rapidly buying up panic sold Bitcoin at the knock-down prices before using their market clout to ramp the market up once again. Not like these flash crashes and recoveries haven't happened a bazillion times before in Bitcoin. Treacherous stuff for the inexperienced trader.

Bitcoin behaves far more like a penny stock than FTSE 100 or Dow Jones listed shares and therefore, I would have thought that there are far more pitfalls for inexperienced traders in Bitcoin than in mainstream stocks.

[spiderbrain]

Those days are gone. Its going to be a hard ass test of nerve from here on in. I think we'll hit those lofty 4 or maybe 5 figure targets in the fullness of time, but I think its going to be a bloody mess all the way up with whipsaws, jitters and stop farming all the way. Thats the way wall st plays, get ready to feel the fear.

If anyone thought holding through ~31, ~266 and ~1400 was hard, prepare for shake-a-geddon.

+lots. The pros are coming and they know how to mess with people to get their money.

[pinksheep]

Y

Bitcoin behaves far more like a penny stock than FTSE 100 or Dow Jones listed shares and therefore, I would have thought that there are far more pitfalls for inexperienced traders in Bitcoin than in mainstream stocks.

That's why I'll just hold through absolutely everything. I'd love to get out after a new ATH & get back in again lower, but knowing my luck, I'd get out & never get back in. I'll HODL until I reach the figure I have in mind - either that or go down with it!! It's an all or nothing game for me.

[Dragonkiller]

Those days are gone. Its going to be a hard ass test of nerve from here on in. I think we'll hit those lofty 4 or maybe 5 figure targets in the fullness of time, but I think its going to be a bloody mess all the way up with whipsaws, jitters and stop farming all the way. Thats the way wall st plays, get ready to feel the fear.

If anyone thought holding through ~31, ~266 and ~1400 was hard, prepare for shake-a-geddon.

+lots. The pros are coming and they know how to mess with people to get their money.

The pros are already here. What do you think has been happening over the last six months? We went from ~$1100 to ~$300, they've been using the China FUD to shake people out and accumulate.

[Operatr]

Those days are gone. Its going to be a hard ass test of nerve from here on in. I think we'll hit those lofty 4 or maybe 5 figure targets in the fullness of time, but I think its going to be a bloody mess all the way up with whipsaws, jitters and stop farming all the way. Thats the way wall st plays, get ready to feel the fear.

If anyone thought holding through ~31, ~266 and ~1400 was hard, prepare for shake-a-geddon.

+lots. The pros are coming and they know how to mess with people to get their money.

The pros are already here. What do you think has been happening over the last six months? We went from ~$1100 to ~$300, they've been using the China FUD to shake people out and accumulate.

The whales have been playing that game since Gox first opened its doors. With Bitcoins lack of liquidity all a whale had to do was put up a wall somewhere and then start pumping or dumping to incite a panic the direction they want the market to go, and pull the plug for some profit taking while trade rookies lose their asses. With the altklones its even easier.

But now those whales will be battling other endowed seasoned traditional traders and investors.

Any way you slice it, the rest of this year will be pretty wild I think.

[sgbett]

...snip...

Perhaps we are about to see a fine example of that within the next few days, when Bitcoin breaks out from this apparent 'bull flag' (despite the already massive gains), and the weekly MACD and 10/21 MA cross over to the upside, and all the noobs pile in, the sharks will choose this moment to capitalise and cash out of their BTC, crashing the market right back down to $500s causing widespread panic selling across the whole market in everyone except them, as they start rapidly buying up panic sold Bitcoin at the knock-down prices before using their market clout to ramp the market up once again. Not like these flash crashes and recoveries haven't happened a bazillion times before in Bitcoin. Treacherous stuff for the inexperienced trader.

..snip...

[Carra23]

Still a lot of short term bears thinking the price will go below $650.

My advice is don't count on it to happen.

Very confident it will happen, might even test 550.

[Rdeschain]

Which might still come, by the way. Retesting the first retracement level at ~530 is still a possibility, but that's more a thought in the back of my mind rather than a likely scenario right now.

Every ounce of common sense in my head tells me that Bitcoin is more likely than not to test the 32% Fib retracement ratio at $580,

forget common sense....tell us what your dreams say...

[piramida]

1w MACD just turned green? check.

Last gasp before a huge uptrend? check.

Flash crash that broke 23% fib level from ATH to bottom anyway? check as well.


I know... Silk Road crash. Can't possibly happen again. Once in a lifetime...

Bullshit. News matter, but price has a way to create its own news that matter.


Like I said, I don't expect it, but I wouldn't be shocked either if it happens.

Good points. Now that I think about it, every major bitcoin rally had some huge bad news selloff right before it.  Silkroad, pirate, something which happened before the rally to 32 which caused the dip to $0.8 Hmm (puts on Mat's conspiracy hat) - It's almost like bad news create a good enough entry point for a rally starter, who then sucks liquidity out of the market until it shoots up.

Or maybe people need to see that "really bad news" have only limited impact, and start buying, reassured.

[MatTheCat]

forget common sense....tell us what your dreams say...

Not had a good lucid Bitcoin dream since the one where Bitcoin was trading at $190 for a split second, and the next moment I looked, Bitcoin was trading in the $700s (Bitcoin was around $440 when I had this dream) and I just spent the whole time in the dream being unable to accept the price action as genuine.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=581956.msg6642826#msg6642826

In the thread I analysed whether the dream could be indicative of a turn in the market that my bearish emotional bias (at that time) was just not willing to accept. This turned out to be bang on the money and when Bitcoin broke above long term trendline at $460, I was only ever cautious bull, exiting the market as early as $520 anticipating pullback, and then in and out the market like a Yo Yo. Had I just held my $460 until this very day, I would have taken some 200% more profit than what I ended up taking from the market.

I was long Bitcoin a few days ago at $670. I had a dream that Bitcoin crashed right to $621, but when I looked at the charts again, it was back up at $676. I exited my trade. A flash crash did indeed occur (and indeed to $621......the numbers in my dreams are never correct), and I was in and out several times, at a loss every single phucking time almost, only to watch the market creep right back up to my entry position. I am a shite trader, and I know it. For this reason I ask myself. In the medium term, do I think Bitcoin is going up or down? Since I think it will go more up than down from here, I have just taken my $660 position and am done with it.

In the off chance that you weren't just being sarky, it may be worth reporting that I am not getting any spooked out Bitcoin dreams at the moment like I was getting right through the bear market and actually just before the bear market. So even though common sense tells me that Bitcoin will most likely correct at least $70 from here, my subconscious mind is for the time being, not scared of Bitcoin.

[Hyena]

I must admit, it concerns me to see so many bulls. On the one hand, most people can't be right. On the other hand, speculators set the price. Fact is that TA indicates a rally and it could happen once in the history of Bitcoin that most speculators anticipate the rally successfully before it begins. A funny twist would be that although there are bullish news all over the place and everyone expects the next big rise, the price remains the same for a longer period.

Right now the volume has been decreasing for the past days so a periodic breakout might occur during this weekend bringing us to 700. From the manipulators' point of view, it would be wise to hold the bubble back as long as possible and then suddenly buy the fuck in, causing panic all over the place. We might be experiencing such an effect right now.

[pinksheep]

Would love to hear everyone's predictions of when BTC will reach the vertical stage of the S-curve.

[sgbett]

Would love to hear everyone's predictions of when BTC will reach the vertical stage of the S-curve.

October 8th

[CEG5952]

I must admit, it concerns me to see so many bulls. On the one hand, most people can't be right.

Bingo. At the very least, I think we need to shake out some of the exuberance. We could make a .382 or .5 correction down and feel a lot of despair. And yet the formation would still look very bullish.

And it would put a lot of the bulls into doubt over their "bubble by next month" mentality. Then if the downside movement doesn't materialize, panic to the upside could then ensue...

[Raystonn]

I've been trading stocks, options, futures, and futures options for many years now.  I still have an IRA trading the S&P 500 e-mini (ES).  The rest of my funds are all in with Bitcoin.  I'll say that Bitcoin trading is at least one magnitude easier than ES.  But it's catching up.  You folks would do well to just sit back and hold at this point.  Unless you have a massive computer system that can do high frequency trades with a verifiable edge, you will eventually give all your BTC away.

[T.Stuart]

Would love to hear everyone's predictions of when BTC will reach the vertical stage of the S-curve.

Either 1.5 years or never.

[piramida]

I know... Silk Road crash. Can't possibly happen again. Once in a lifetime...

Bullshit. News matter, but price has a way to create its own news that matter.


Like I said, I don't expect it, but I wouldn't be shocked either if it happens.

And we have a SilkRoad crash... Again! SO the dip before the rally - check.

[oda.krell]

I know... Silk Road crash. Can't possibly happen again. Once in a lifetime...

Bullshit. News matter, but price has a way to create its own news that matter.


Like I said, I don't expect it, but I wouldn't be shocked either if it happens.

And we have a SilkRoad crash... Again! SO the dip before the rally - check.

It looks similar enough, but (on-exchange) volume doesn't fit. I personally believe we will see a local peak (that doesn't deserve the word "bubble" though) next month, but the overall theme will be one and a half step back for each two steps forward for a longer time still, imo.

[Tzupy]

I know... Silk Road crash. Can't possibly happen again. Once in a lifetime...

Bullshit. News matter, but price has a way to create its own news that matter.


Like I said, I don't expect it, but I wouldn't be shocked either if it happens.

And we have a SilkRoad crash... Again! SO the dip before the rally - check.

It looks similar enough, but (on-exchange) volume doesn't fit. I personally believe we will see a local peak (that doesn't deserve the word "bubble" though) next month, but the overall theme will be one and a half step back for each two steps forward for a longer time still, imo.

SR crash coincided with the bottom of corrective wave 2. IF we are now in wave 1 (and not still in wave C), then we have first to reach the peak
of wave 1, around 750$ - 800$, then start corrective wave 2, which would take another 1 - 2 months to reach the bottom, so this IS NOT SR crash like.

[TERA]

The problem with this thread is that the fool moon in question was the Friday the 13th fool moon. Any other full moon would have been valid.