*snip*
I am not following your logic in saying that you would need to add CPI inflation to M2 growth.
In 10 years if M2 doubled but CPI inflation was exactly double then the million dollars that I have can still buy the same amount of goods and services but would be 1/2 the percentage of the total M2 money supply. It would be likely that asset prices would have appreciated in this time so the million dollars would likely buy a smaller house (but the same amount of food, or cars, or haircuts or vacations). M2 doubling in 10 years would mean that in terms of the percentage of money supply a trillion dollars worth of bitcoin would be like 500 billion dollars today.
In regards to your assumption of money supply growth I would question your assumption that the current rate of 7% would remain constant. QE has had many effects on the economy, and one of it's intended effects is to get consumers to spend more. It gets to this goal by making it cheaper to borrow. A large source of this borrowing has been via home equity loans (this would include both lines of credit and loans). At least temporarily the funds from these loans will be part of the M2 money supply. Another issue with the M2 growth rate is the vast amounts of "cash" that large companies have on their balance sheet. Due to a number of reasons companies have been reluctant to invest and have kept a large portion of their profits in "cash" that is part of M2. So the money that consumers do spend eventually ends up in M2, or at least a larger then normal portion of it.
Looking back to the Cyprus bank crisis, the price of bitcoin surged when banks ability to remain a going concern was put into question. I would say that a banking crisis that puts into question the health of banks would be positive for bitcoin, however aversion to overall risk would be bad for bitcoin. It should be noted that bitcoin is still a very speculative asset and people will sell speculative assets when they are trying to reduce risk.
I think that Bitcoin does have a lot of long term value and potential.
In regards to your 25k BTC holdings being worth a million dollars in 10 years. I would not be surprised if this were to happen. I would even go as far to say that I would be surprised if it did not happen anytime in the next 10 years. This would be the result of the value of BTC going up 40x (it would be more when taking into consideration the additional blocks found by miners).
Sorry to get back to this so late -- kind of dropped off the face of Earth for a while. I was meaning to suggest M2 growth should eventually translate to CPI growth, not that CPI goes into M2. CPI is barely increasing YoY, missing Fed inflation targets consistently for nearly two years, IIRC. I would assume, then, that CPI has a lot of growth potential to be "realized" (since it's lagging so far behind M2 increase) over the next few years, and while M2 growth will likely slow down, that "unrealized CPI growth potential" may offset that, at least for consumers. M2 in January '97 was ~$3.8t, but we're at ~$11.3t, now, so in my mind, it seems like a '97 dollar is worth ~3 of today's dollars.
Reading
this, though, there doesn't appear to be any correlation between CPI and M2 (or MZM after looking at that personally), which just seems totally counter-intuitive to me and now I need to ask really dumb questions. There's way more money which'll eventually be chasing goods, right? They can't just hoard money forever... can they? Why doesn't M2 or MZM ever show any significant downward trends?