What is the likely impact of FinCEN's recent release on Bitcoin's value? Is FinCEN more bark than bite?
Itll add to the current FUD going on (tradehill, paxum, bitcoinicas legal complaint, Silk Road, volatility, now FinCEN, ..), therefore further downward pressure in the short- mid term. Possibly increased volatility.
Overall, I wouldnt value it too heavyly, the real news is about to come with an actual ruling! Lacking a real lobby, I would expect it to be at bitcoins charge. Followed by a (hopefully fruitful) discussion and possible adjustments to prior laws. A ruling in this matter could actually launch a ruling domino effect on other legislations all across the globe (people like to believe other peoples arguments are well thought through by the other party before made and therefore consider the counter arguments less meaningful).
This could, left all FUD aside, turn out in bitcoins favor also, if lets say the court case of Mt.Gox vs. that french bank that refused to let them open an account with them, turns out to BTCs advantage (what actually ever became of that?).