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Author Topic: The REAL cause of the crash.  (Read 1903 times)
AndDuffy
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February 19, 2012, 07:52:09 AM
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Silk Road had a sale on Feburary 4th. They offered 10% off every purchase, and many vendors offered additional discounts. This sale was announced on Janurary 31st. In the week following the sale, there was a considerable increase in trade volume. This, coupled with Tradehill news and the fact that Bitcoins were probably overpriced to begin with, caused the fall we saw from 6 to 4. Check out the proof: http://i.imgur.com/z7AJF.png

Also, check out me calling it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=62365.40

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Cluster2k
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February 19, 2012, 09:58:40 AM
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Silk Road had a sale on Feburary 4th. They offered 10% off every purchase, and many vendors offered additional discounts. This sale was announced on Janurary 31st. In the week following the sale, there was a considerable increase in trade volume. This, coupled with Tradehill news and the fact that Bitcoins were probably overpriced to begin with, caused the fall we saw from 6 to 4. Check out the proof: http://i.imgur.com/z7AJF.png

Also, check out me calling it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=62365.40

So, after the sale finished and the market digested the TradeHill news, bitcoin is a great buy at $4.20?

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BCMan
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February 19, 2012, 10:38:59 AM
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Perhaps a strong relation between SilkRoad and the bitcoin price would also explain why the price is hovering around $4.20.
LOL.

AndDuffy
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February 19, 2012, 03:27:45 PM
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So, after the sale finished and the market digested the TradeHill news, bitcoin is a great buy at $4.20?

No, I think we'll dip below $4.00. We were overdue for a fall anyways, I just think that the timing of the SR sale along with Tradehill and BTC-e made the fall even more dramatic. Now I'm off to go smoke a spliff.

old_engineer
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February 19, 2012, 07:26:26 PM
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There were a few big btc buys before the silk road sale, so unless someone was stocking up on kilos for President's Day, I think it was one (or more) speculators trading on the news of the event, rather than the event itself, that caused the rise in price.  Correlation != causation.

Here's the 16k btc buy that kicked it off on Feb 2nd (this is a one minute chart):


Which seems like a smart play: the speculator/manipulator bought their coins, driving up price, then presumably sold them off at inflated price to silk road users before the later fall.  It's impossible to know just how much of the rise was due to the silk road sale, let alone call it proof.  I doubt it really had much effect besides as a vehicle for a speculator to make a play.  The short-term movement of the market is dominated by speculation, not fundamentals.
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