Bitcoin Forum
May 13, 2024, 01:55:21 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 27.0 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Pages: [1]
  Print  
Author Topic: The REAL cause of the crash.  (Read 2083 times)
AndDuffy (OP)
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 76
Merit: 10


View Profile
February 19, 2012, 07:52:09 AM
 #1

Silk Road had a sale on Feburary 4th. They offered 10% off every purchase, and many vendors offered additional discounts. This sale was announced on Janurary 31st. In the week following the sale, there was a considerable increase in trade volume. This, coupled with Tradehill news and the fact that Bitcoins were probably overpriced to begin with, caused the fall we saw from 6 to 4. Check out the proof: https://i.imgur.com/z7AJF.png

Also, check out me calling it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=62365.40

The Bitcoin network protocol was designed to be extremely flexible. It can be used to create timed transactions, escrow transactions, multi-signature transactions, etc. The current features of the client only hint at what will be possible in the future.
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction.
1715608521
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1715608521

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1715608521
Reply with quote  #2

1715608521
Report to moderator
Cluster2k
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1692
Merit: 1018



View Profile
February 19, 2012, 09:58:40 AM
 #2

Silk Road had a sale on Feburary 4th. They offered 10% off every purchase, and many vendors offered additional discounts. This sale was announced on Janurary 31st. In the week following the sale, there was a considerable increase in trade volume. This, coupled with Tradehill news and the fact that Bitcoins were probably overpriced to begin with, caused the fall we saw from 6 to 4. Check out the proof: https://i.imgur.com/z7AJF.png

Also, check out me calling it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=62365.40

So, after the sale finished and the market digested the TradeHill news, bitcoin is a great buy at $4.20?
BCMan
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 535
Merit: 500



View Profile
February 19, 2012, 10:38:59 AM
 #3

Perhaps a strong relation between SilkRoad and the bitcoin price would also explain why the price is hovering around $4.20.
LOL.
AndDuffy (OP)
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 76
Merit: 10


View Profile
February 19, 2012, 03:27:45 PM
 #4


So, after the sale finished and the market digested the TradeHill news, bitcoin is a great buy at $4.20?

No, I think we'll dip below $4.00. We were overdue for a fall anyways, I just think that the timing of the SR sale along with Tradehill and BTC-e made the fall even more dramatic. Now I'm off to go smoke a spliff.

old_engineer
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 387
Merit: 250


View Profile
February 19, 2012, 07:26:26 PM
 #5

There were a few big btc buys before the silk road sale, so unless someone was stocking up on kilos for President's Day, I think it was one (or more) speculators trading on the news of the event, rather than the event itself, that caused the rise in price.  Correlation != causation.

Here's the 16k btc buy that kicked it off on Feb 2nd (this is a one minute chart):


Which seems like a smart play: the speculator/manipulator bought their coins, driving up price, then presumably sold them off at inflated price to silk road users before the later fall.  It's impossible to know just how much of the rise was due to the silk road sale, let alone call it proof.  I doubt it really had much effect besides as a vehicle for a speculator to make a play.  The short-term movement of the market is dominated by speculation, not fundamentals.
Pages: [1]
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!