Bitcoin Forum
December 11, 2016, 10:06:28 AM *
News: To be able to use the next phase of the beta forum software, please ensure that your email address is correct/functional.
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: [1] 2 »  All
  Print  
Author Topic: Precarious  (Read 3867 times)
miscreanity
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1078


View Profile
February 19, 2012, 10:10:47 PM
 #1

It seems like a good buying opp, but it looks like there are some other factors that could drag price down further in the short-term (banks attacking, gov't ire, etc).



So this is probably the beginning of a brief "buying season" to be followed by a breach of the recent ~$7 high. I'm guessing by the end of Q3.
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
echowhiskey
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 21


View Profile
February 19, 2012, 10:24:30 PM
 #2

http://i.imgur.com/8X69n.png

Mt.Gox bitcoin volume averaged over 16-week increments.
Mushoz
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 686


Bitbuy


View Profile WWW
February 19, 2012, 10:34:13 PM
 #3



Mt.Gox bitcoin volume averaged over 16-week increments.

How many weeks are there already in that last bar? It will most likely rise significantly before it closes.

www.bitbuy.nl - Koop eenvoudig, snel en goedkoop bitcoins bij Bitbuy!
echowhiskey
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 21


View Profile
February 19, 2012, 10:37:27 PM
 #4


How many weeks are there already in that last bar? It will most likely rise significantly before it closes.

We are 5 weeks into the last bar.
Mushoz
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 686


Bitbuy


View Profile WWW
February 19, 2012, 10:39:57 PM
 #5


How many weeks are there already in that last bar? It will most likely rise significantly before it closes.

We are 5 weeks into the last bar.

Nice, looking good! We'll probably overtake the 2nd last bar by a little bit if we maintain current volume figures. Bitcoin growth is looking healthy! Thanks for these graphs, really interesting.

www.bitbuy.nl - Koop eenvoudig, snel en goedkoop bitcoins bij Bitbuy!
miscreanity
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1078


View Profile
February 19, 2012, 10:51:54 PM
 #6

Mt.Gox bitcoin volume averaged over 16-week increments.

Good stuff, nice to see the overall growth. Does your data include only USD or all currencies?

It would be interesting to see the data for all exchanges as well...
echowhiskey
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 21


View Profile
February 19, 2012, 11:02:29 PM
 #7

It's bitcoincharts.com's data.  I copied it into a spreadsheet, averaged bitcoin volume, then graphed.

stochastic
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 532


View Profile
February 19, 2012, 11:18:10 PM
 #8

It seems like a good buying opp, but it looks like there are some other factors that could drag price down further in the short-term (banks attacking, gov't ire, etc).



So this is probably the beginning of a brief "buying season" to be followed by a breach of the recent ~$7 high. I'm guessing by the end of Q3.

Are you long or short right now?

Introducing constraints to the economy only serves to limit what can be economical.
miscreanity
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1078


View Profile
February 20, 2012, 12:24:44 AM
 #9

Are you long or short right now?

Long; building a position in tranches.

The system I'm using has triggered 9 trading signals since the start of data on that chart, and I've only traded 4 of them, the most recent being a sell at $6.75 in January. If Bitcoin breaks below a weighted value of $3.80 by the end of this week, it'll trigger a buy signal.
BadBear
v2.0
Administrator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1652



View Profile WWW
February 20, 2012, 12:27:25 AM
 #10

I went partially in, it could go either way at this point.

1Kz25jm6pjNTaz8bFezEYUeBYfEtpjuKRG | PGP: B5797C4F

Tired of annoying signature ads? Ad block for signatures
RyNinDaCleM
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2002


Legen -wait for it- dary


View Profile
February 20, 2012, 12:42:25 AM
 #11

Are you long or short right now?

Long; building a position in tranches.


But you expect Bitcoin to collapse?  Huh

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=64092.0

dropt
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1442



View Profile
February 20, 2012, 01:16:20 AM
 #12

Are you long or short right now?

Long; building a position in tranches.


But you expect Bitcoin to collapse?  Huh

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=64092.0

I don't think he's claiming or expecting it to collapse.  Looks like he's saying Bitcoin has proven itself over the last 2 years and pseudo-collapse would allow refinement to strengthen its operation/existence without massive resistance from the community which may effectively cause a real collapse.

But, I could be wrong.  I usually am.
stochastic
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 532


View Profile
February 20, 2012, 01:23:05 AM
 #13

Are you long or short right now?

Long; building a position in tranches.

The system I'm using has triggered 9 trading signals since the start of data on that chart, and I've only traded 4 of them, the most recent being a sell at $6.75 in January. If Bitcoin breaks below a weighted value of $3.80 by the end of this week, it'll trigger a buy signal.


How does your system compare with 9 trading signals created by randomly assigning them over that same time period?  If you are  using data pre-March 2011 it would be hard not to lose buying bitcoins.

Introducing constraints to the economy only serves to limit what can be economical.
RyNinDaCleM
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2002


Legen -wait for it- dary


View Profile
February 20, 2012, 02:45:54 AM
 #14

Are you long or short right now?

Long; building a position in tranches.


But you expect Bitcoin to collapse?  Huh

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=64092.0

I don't think he's claiming or expecting it to collapse.  Looks like he's saying Bitcoin has proven itself over the last 2 years and pseudo-collapse would allow refinement to strengthen its operation/existence without massive resistance from the community which may effectively cause a real collapse.

But, I could be wrong.  I usually am.

Nah, that does seem to be the case, but why not wait to buy until it hits $2 again?  Wink

I'm just giving him a hard time though.

miscreanity
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1078


View Profile
February 20, 2012, 04:51:05 AM
 #15

How does your system compare with 9 trading signals created by randomly assigning them over that same time period?  If you are  using data pre-March 2011 it would be hard not to lose buying bitcoins.

It's a very conservative method (I like my sleep). I've compared against a buy & hold position of the same size and over the same time frame. Participating in all 9 trades up to the current USD/BTC rate of ~$4.40 results in a 13% increase over B&H.

For the 4 trades that I have made using the system, I'm up 15% compared to a buy & hold strategy. That's after accounting for the additional funds required above the initial 100% position (funds were added 3x before the first sell signal).

This is using data from bitcoincharts.com and assessing weekly activity, so if a trade is indicated, it will only be executed at (or ASAP after) the week's closing number is in. Here are the trades:

DateTradeUSD/BTC
2010-10-11-10.00%0.10
2011-02-07-10.00%0.92
2011-05-16-10.00%7.20
2011-06-13-10.00%14.65
2011-08-0810.00%6.55
2011-09-1210.00%4.77
2011-10-2410.00%3.16
2011-11-2110.00%2.20
2012-01-09-10.00%6.75

The date is for the start of the new week - opening is the same as the prior week's closing; positive trade percentages indicate buys and negatives are sells; USD/BTC rates are the prior week's closing and current week's opening value which is the specified trade price.

As Bitcoin continues to grow, I'll eventually shift to a monthly basis.
miscreanity
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1078


View Profile
February 20, 2012, 04:52:57 AM
 #16

Are you long or short right now?

Long; building a position in tranches.


But you expect Bitcoin to collapse?  Huh

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=64092.0

I don't think he's claiming or expecting it to collapse.  Looks like he's saying Bitcoin has proven itself over the last 2 years and pseudo-collapse would allow refinement to strengthen its operation/existence without massive resistance from the community which may effectively cause a real collapse.

But, I could be wrong.  I usually am.

Nah, that does seem to be the case, but why not wait to buy until it hits $2 again?  Wink

I'm just giving him a hard time though.


Smartass Smiley

Anyway, I'm perfectly alright with getting the majority of the tradable range. Besides, based on the current situation, it's getting more and more unlikely that $2 will be breached on anything but a spike drop... not that there aren't buy orders that low Wink
stochastic
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 532


View Profile
February 20, 2012, 03:05:11 PM
 #17


As Bitcoin continues to grow, I'll eventually shift to a monthly basis.

What are the trigger signals?

Introducing constraints to the economy only serves to limit what can be economical.
miscreanity
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1078


View Profile
February 21, 2012, 08:59:57 PM
 #18

What are the trigger signals?

Buy or sell.
stochastic
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 532


View Profile
February 21, 2012, 09:04:10 PM
 #19

What are the trigger signals?

Buy or sell.

I just ask because it is pointless to post up results without the ability to reproduce it.

Introducing constraints to the economy only serves to limit what can be economical.
miscreanity
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1078


View Profile
February 23, 2012, 06:32:07 PM
 #20

I just ask because it is pointless to post up results without the ability to reproduce it.

Demand for reproducibility is understandable, but I prefer not to reveal all of my calculations. I make use of numerous variable factors and derivations, including the external capital flows shown in this thread.

Bitcoin trading is much easier than in almost any other system due to its transparency. If your interest is piqued, wait for the algorithm to trigger again; I'll post here when it does.
Pages: [1] 2 »  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!