If $537 fails to hold........

[maker88]

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Og7Mytb7
there you see the rallyacceleration 2013 and ist breach april 2014.
Furthermore the Longterm (Primary) trendline since 2011.
In blue,just for you , the adjusted trendline 2013.You can not adjust trendlines so quick.

could you explain how you came to draw that 2013 trend line in red? why doesn't it touch the october bottom, seems to be deliberately placed in the wrong spot on the chart. the blue line seems pretty textbook. isn't that the one you claim is false? I'm a little confused by your chart.

[bitcoinsrus]

Matt, what you think is going to happen at the end of the month when the 30k are sold. Personally I do not think it will cause that much of a price drop because I think the 650 to now already calculated the panic selling for this incident.

I do not think the buyer will dump on exchanges. What you think about this (and for July). Thanks

[MatTheCat]

Matt, what you think is going to happen at the end of the month when the 30k are sold. Personally I do not think it will cause that much of a price drop because I think the 650 to now already calculated the panic selling for this incident.

I do not think the buyer will dump on exchanges. What you think about this (and for July. Thanks

I really don't have a phucking clue. I still can't say that Bitcoin is spooking me out on an intuitive level because it isn't. On an intuitive level, I still believe that higher highs (than $680) are ahead. I did however believe that we were going to go down a bit, but really thought that $550 would be the bottom. Now the bottom is $538, right on the long term support line, and let's face it, we just haven't seen the buying support that would suggest that this will be the final bottom. The likelihood is that we go down further from here and as soon as that long term trendline is breached, then Bitcoin goes into uncharted territory and will have to find a level of consolidation at some point before I could feel that I can trade it again. With the amount of fear going around at the moment regarding the rumoured 51% attack possibility and the FBI seized coins etc, who knows, if that trend line is breached ($537) then Bitcoin might go into a real freefall. The ground support trendline beneath it is currently somewhere in $100 range. Not saying that it would go right down to that, but where it might stop, and for how long, and what kind of rebound that we might get, is beyond my abilities to speculate on.

Not for me at the moment. I was fortunate enough to be wise enough to leave my $660 position at $645. I have since been in and out market on a few occasions, making small profits as I exited my position after I decided things weren't looking too clever. However, I hit the panic button on my last $555 trade and made a market sell at $449. Not so bad you may think, except that a lot of people must have hit the panic button at the same time, and I witnessed several hundred BTC selling into Bid wall taking spot down to $440 before my order was executed. Very very annoying. Fucking Bitstamp and their atrocious lack of trading options....I mean, at least give us a Stop Buy/Sell option Bitstamp u fucking inept cunts.

So in short, my answer towards Bitcoin is phuck knows m8! I have been playing the catching the falling knife game, but it has kept on falling and this time I got badly cut, so I am out for now and waiting on the market to grind out some kind of consolidatory pattern before I start lining up a plan of action again. If $538 turns out to be the final bottom for this correction, then that would make for a classic rising wedge scenario such as I outlined in some TA 101 that I put in oda.krell's TA thread, only my Rising Wedge had like $580 or something as the top of the second swing up, a full $100 short of what the actual second top swing will be should the rising wedge scenario play out. If the rising wedge scenario does come to fruition, then this is the bottom....but I aint risking nothing on that at this point in time.

[segeln]

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Og7Mytb7
there you see the rallyacceleration 2013 and ist breach april 2014.
Furthermore the Longterm (Primary) trendline since 2011.
In blue,just for you , the adjusted trendline 2013.You can not adjust trendlines so quick.

Dude, what is that random red line?

If you draw a trend line from january the 6th 2013 to the bottom of the october crash you have a clear trend line that predicted the $340 bottom and the official trend reversal perfectly.
Simple as that.  
the red line is nothing at all.
What are you saying?

sorry,but the red Line is the acceleration in 2013
sorry,I made a mistake

[r0ach]

I made a post specifically to address this post:

This forum has the largest collection of dumb college educated people on earth

http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=652307.0

Really?

And should that long term support be convincingly breached, at what price support would you be happy to go all in on a long Bitcoin position?

When I trade BTC and Altcoins, I do trade taking technicals into account, but i weigh fundamentals and general market confidence as being far more important since pretty much every form of currency is a confidence game.  My main use of technicals (it's best and only real use imo) is to look for a bottom, never to try and predict a top.  Then I trade knowing what my current profit is and the bottom it can possibly slide to.  I don't trade every single day like some people do, and don't buy anything that I wouldn't hold for at least a week, but I have also never lost money trading crypto.  Trading every day is how you get burned.

The market is honestly too manipulated by a single entity on Bitstamp also with low volume for me to be comfortable with to go into right now.  I was waiting for the momentum trade on actual fundamental changes.  I don't want to win or lose based entirely on one single guy on Bitstamp.  That's the equivalent of buying a lottery ticket.

Unless they have insider information that I don't know, the smart money would currently be out of BTC while waiting on buy signals unless they're holding a long position.

[MatTheCat]

The market is honestly too manipulated by a single entity on Bitstamp also with low volume for me to be comfortable with to go into right now.  I was waiting for the momentum trade on actual fundamental changes.  I would buy under 500 though, otherwise, I'll just wait for the momentum trade when I know whether I win or lose won't entirely be determined by one single guy on Bitstamp.  That's the equivalent of buying a lottery ticket.

This is what I have been noticing recently big style. Been saying it on this forum but it mostly gets dismissed as unsubstantiated conspiracy theory. This entity on Bitstamp prevented a break out from triangle at $680 range twice. It was his selling pressure that brought the market down to $500 range, which ultimately lead to some kind of leveraged long squeeze on Bitfinex as can be seen by taking a squizz at the rather erratic Bitfinex charts.

I trade all the time me and I am fucking shit at it! Always chasing the dragons tail thinking stuff like "right, last time I never took profits and got burned as the market turned on me, this time I will take profits and buy back in correction!" Read: Bought in at $460, sold at $520 in order to cash in on correction, Bitcoin goes to $680! lol. Then the next time I do the opposite; "Right, last time I took profits too early, this time I am gonna hold out for a real rise!" Only for the market to punish me again, but in the opposite way.....and that is just the trades I win. I have never even nearly took max potential profit from a winning trade since the inception of the bear market in Dec 2013, I have come close to taking 80%+ of potential losses in losing trades though.

[mmortal03]

You guys could always watch the 365-day EMA, instead.

[bitcoinsrus]

Yea, a break lower then 537 might mean its going down more (for a little bit). Dam I thought this FUD was over. Everyone had high hopes for July, but maybe August or September might be the new uptrend.

[r0ach]

This entity on Bitstamp prevented a break out from triangle at $680 range twice. It was his selling pressure that brought the market down to $500 range, which ultimately lead to some kind of leveraged long squeeze on Bitfinex as can be seen by taking a squizz at the rather erratic Bitfinex charts.

I don't think you have the full picture here.  I trade alts a lot more than BTC, so I know what a pump and dump looks like from a mile away and can spot certain players by whatever volumes they use.  It was pretty obvious to me the same, single entity was responsible for both making the price rise and fall, and it was done using Bitstamp.  My first thought was that someone was trying to experiment with pump and dumping Bitcoin.  My second thought was that someone like KNC, or coalition of ASIC makers, wanted to create an uptrend to sell Scrypt or SHA ASICs.

You guys could always watch the 365-day EMA, instead.

I'm not sure if I would use willy tainted data, but it's better than nothing.

[MatTheCat]

Yea, a break lower then 537 might mean its going down more (for a little bit). Dam I thought this FUD was over. Everyone had high hopes for July, but maybe August or September might be the new uptrend.

Knock the idea of 2 da Moon right out of your head. Until the day comes that we take out the previous ATH, then there always exists the potential that we are still in a long term corrective Wave.

IF $538 holds as the bottom, then we can rule out the recent rise as being due to an EW impulse wave move, and due to a potential Rising Wedge move that is very much part of a Wave B counter trend rally. If this were to be the case, then the most optimistic top would be somewhere in $800-$900 range. But if the $538 support fails, then Bitcoin will be looking to most like a very scary proposition.

I don't think you have the full picture here.  I trade alts a lot more than BTC, so I know what a pump and dump looks like from a mile away and can spot certain players by whatever volumes they use.  It was pretty obvious to me the same, single entity was responsible for both making the price rise and fall, and it was done using Bitstamp.

Yep. Noticed that recently. Other exchanges may take the lead, but only if Bitstamp moves, does the Bitcoin market as a whole move. If Bitcoin doesn't move, then the other big exchanges (most of which report much greater volume than Bitstamp), kind of look back at the $20-$30 price differential between their spot and spot on Bistamp and think 'ermm......maybe not'.

[bitcoinsrus]

Yea, a break lower then 537 might mean its going down more (for a little bit). Dam I thought this FUD was over. Everyone had high hopes for July, but maybe August or September might be the new uptrend.

Knock the idea of 2 da Moon right out of your head. Until the day comes that we take out the previous ATH, then there always exists the potential that we are still in a long term corrective Wave.

IF $538 holds as the bottom, then we can rule out the recent rise as being due to an EW impulse wave move, and due to a potential Rising Wedge move that is very much part of a Wave B counter trend rally. If this were to be the case, then the most optimistic top would be somewhere in $800-$900 range. But if the $538 support fails, then Bitcoin will be looking to most like a very scary proposition.

I don't think you have the full picture here.  I trade alts a lot more than BTC, so I know what a pump and dump looks like from a mile away and can spot certain players by whatever volumes they use.  It was pretty obvious to me the same, single entity was responsible for both making the price rise and fall, and it was done using Bitstamp.

Yep. Noticed that recently. Other exchanges may take the lead, but only if Bitstamp moves, does the Bitcoin market as a whole move.

Here is where I am at. I have known about bitcoin since 11/29/13 (guy lost harddrive on news that lead me to look into it). Since then it crashed to 500 (from 1100+ when I first saw it). Then it went back to 980+

Then gox fud from 800 to 339. So in the like 6.5+ months, I have seen 2 big things. So I know things take time. I thought it was going to go (not ATH but like sub 800 or 900 or something) starting in July. But in the past, you have been correct so I guess more time for correction in my eyes.

But I still am expecting a upturn within a few months (def. b4 end of q4 @dec 2014). But lets see if 537-538 breaks. I think it might hold now (but has a good chance of breaking when the coins sell not because of the winner dumping, just other panic sellers).

[Arghhh]

The only thing I'm watching now is how the community respond to the 51% attack (yes, it is an attack). This will determine the fate of bitcoin in my eyes.

All things China and Silk Road are sideshows at this point.

[Tzupy]

The only thing I'm watching now is how the community respond to the 51% attack (yes, it is an attack). This will determine the fate of bitcoin in my eyes.

All things China and Silk Road are sideshows at this point.

If you have proof of a real and successful 51% attack, please post it, or a link to it.
Until then, it's just a remote possibility. If the attack were real, we would see the price entering a death spiral.

[falllling]

i told you guys many times, since $62x til now, we are going down to $1xx and $x very fast now, believe or not, it's the way down

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=650517.0
Bitcoin is dead ! GHash over 51%, SR Seized coins and Mtgox coins, China Ban etc

[falllling]

The only thing I'm watching now is how the community respond to the 51% attack (yes, it is an attack). This will determine the fate of bitcoin in my eyes.

All things China and Silk Road are sideshows at this point.

If you have proof of a real and successful 51% attack, please post it, or a link to it.
Until then, it's just a remote possibility. If the attack were real, we would see the price entering a death spiral.

Bitcoin = GHash Coin now, no need to wait for a real double spend
who wants GHash Coin?

[segeln]

sorry to all: I did an incorrect drawing for the trendline since 2013
here is the correct one:

sorry MatTheCat

[fonzie]

Too late segeln, by now everyone knows your TA is flawed and you lost all your credibility. Game Over!

[piramida]

Then we will have breached the long term trendline that has been in place since Jan 2013.


Anyone care to provide any other theories as to why Bitcoin finding 'support' at $500, or somewhere in the $400's, would be 'bullish'?

Yep, good point surprisingly. If that support (around $520 on my chart but who cares for small change) is confidently breached on the current FUD stream, that would mean the x10 acceleration is over at least for some time, and 300 is quite real.

I am still bullish though, and don't think it will go that low, just because of some obvious FUD this time - there aren't any actual news, just regurgitating some old FUD from china, silkroad and 51% - these are all used up to death, sorry; had to use all three at once to move the price

[MatTheCat]

But in the past, you have been correct so I guess more time for correction in my eyes.

Not so fast! I am telling you in no uncertain terms that I don't know how this is going to play out. If $538 was the bottom, then that sets up for a classic rising wedge scenario which would be bullish on the intermediate term but bearish on the long term. If $538 falls....oo-er missus. Then we could have a real bloodbath on our hands.

I am still bullish though, and don't think it will go that low, just because of some obvious FUD this time - there aren't any actual news, just regurgitating some old FUD from china, silkroad and 51% - these are all used up to death, sorry; had to use all three at once to move the price

And here is the strange thing. So actually am I. I was fairly certain that a strong correction was coming (not quite as strong as what we have seen of course), but still feeling that higher highs than $680 were a coming around the mountain. But here we are. We have corrected right down to the long term trendline and recovery volume hasn't been so fantastic. Perhaps Bitcoin can trend and grind along to test the trendline again on low volume in a few days time before going shooting up again, but if there is yet more selling pressure to come, then we all know what the implications will be of that line getting convincingly breached.....and btw....I have redrawn the line, aiming to hook up the $340 low with the Jan 2013 trending tangent points, and having cut $5 or so of the tail fo the October Silk Road crash, and I make the trendline at $542.59 at the point when we got the $538 low. So for all intents and purposes, the trendline was tested and the market stopped selling. We couldn't really say that the market has started buying though.....certainly nothing like the reaction we got at $340. The common sense viewpoint would have to be that $538 wasn't the bottom.

[Malin Keshar]

already back to the 560's, seems just like another weekend dump. But the fact that btc-e price is greater than bitstamp price is signal that we are in troubled times, so anything can happen, but I doubt we sill see sub 530 or up 600 until the 27th, unless if the FUD makers really do a great job