If $537 fails to hold........

[ShakyhandsBTCer]

The only thing I'm watching now is how the community respond to the 51% attack (yes, it is an attack). This will determine the fate of bitcoin in my eyes.

All things China and Silk Road are sideshows at this point.

I don't think ghash would actually launch a 51% attack on the network. Just because they have  51% of the hashrate does not mean they are double spending or preventing other pools from finding pools.

[MatTheCat]

already back to the 560's, seems just like another weekend dump. But the fact that btc-e price is greater than bitstamp price is signal that we are in troubled times, so anything can happen, but I doubt we sill see sub 530 or up 600 until the 27th, unless if the FUD makers really do a great job

Is this a form of sarcasm or a severe case of wishful thinking?

m8, It has been 5 hours since we hit $538. Since then, we have had around 2000 BTC worth of volume on Stamp and Bitcoin has risen $25 from the low. By way of comparison, when Bitcoin hit $340, within 4 hours, Bitcoin had hit $410, a $70 increase, with some 16K worth of trading volume on Stamp.

Things are not looking so rosy here.

I don't think ghash would actually launch a 51% attack on the network. Just because they have  51% of the hashrate does not mean they are double spending or preventing other pools from finding pools.

I don't understand any of this technical Bitcoin stuff. But if it is known that one single entity really has the power to start defrauding the Bitcoin system, and that everyone is relying on that entity exercising the moral rectitude not to abuse this power, then Bitcoin is finished.

[Arghhh]

The only thing I'm watching now is how the community respond to the 51% attack (yes, it is an attack). This will determine the fate of bitcoin in my eyes.

All things China and Silk Road are sideshows at this point.

If you have proof of a real and successful 51% attack, please post it, or a link to it.
Until then, it's just a remote possibility. If the attack were real, we would see the price entering a death spiral.

A 51% attack in my book is when a single entity achieves 51% of the network's security.
This isn't even about malicious intention, this is about the vulnerability of the protocol itself.

But then again it is about malicious intention... repeat after me:

GHash.io has already double-spent
GHash.io has already double-spent
GHash.io has already double-spent

[Miz4r]

The only thing I'm watching now is how the community respond to the 51% attack (yes, it is an attack). This will determine the fate of bitcoin in my eyes.

All things China and Silk Road are sideshows at this point.

If you have proof of a real and successful 51% attack, please post it, or a link to it.
Until then, it's just a remote possibility. If the attack were real, we would see the price entering a death spiral.

A 51% attack in my book is when a single entity achieves 51% of the network's security.
This isn't even about malicious intention, this is about the vulnerability of the protocol itself.

But then again it is about malicious intention... repeat after me:

GHash.io has already double-spent
GHash.io has already double-spent
GHash.io has already double-spent

It wasn't Ghash.io themselves who did the double-spend attack, at least the information there doesn't proof it. Also they had less than 30% of the network when this happened, and one of the core developers on Bitcoin also stated in that thread that you don't even need any hashing power at all to pull this off. So this is not something that can be prevented even if everyone mined only on p2pool.

[crazyearner]

$537 wont hold. Market  price will go up by 10% hold for a while go up by 20% ish and go back to $600s like it did the other day and towards $700s. Now market is currently going as predicted a few days ago elsewhere with market being around high $500 area and will fall into the 400s by Monday or Tuesday next week if not sooner. Prices will then go back up to recover and then eventually go on the down hill and many people are voting for the market to go down while the Gov sells the silk road coins off at auction. Panic sellers will panic sell n have some nice spikes to take advantage of. People  can hold do what they want but more are seeming to move to another alt until they have passed auction and sold so expect some low 300s 200s and maybe 100s or lower over the up coming months. If people are panic selling at least hold half your stock or 80% and sell a small amount off dot go hectic over it

[Alley]

Low 300s because the gov is selling some coins?  Where do you guys come up with this stuff?

[ssmc2]

$537 wont hold. Market  price will go up by 10% hold for a while go up by 20% ish and go back to $600s like it did the other day and towards $700s. Now market is currently going as predicted a few days ago elsewhere with market being around high $500 area and will fall into the 400s by Monday or Tuesday next week if not sooner. Prices will then go back up to recover and then eventually go on the down hill and many people are voting for the market to go down while the Gov sells the silk road coins off at auction. Panic sellers will panic sell n have some nice spikes to take advantage of. People  can hold do what they want but more are seeming to move to another alt until they have passed auction and sold so expect some low 300s 200s and maybe 100s or lower over the up coming months. If people are panic selling at least hold half your stock or 80% and sell a small amount off dot go hectic over it

 

[Gianluca95]

Low 300s because the gov is selling some coins?  Where do you guys come up with this stuff?

No, that's impossible, if you tell this, you tell that Market cap will be: 3.6 billion, and now we're on 7.6 billion.

So, try to understanding meaning of this.

I think that 500-600$ is the best price now, with this news.

[oda.krell]

Agreed on the relevance of holding price of ~530. Ideally: not even breaking it, less optimal, but perhaps okay: breaking through, but immediate rejection and daily close above.

Mentioned it before, in another discussion of ours, but I don't think much of the trendline you base the price target on. That trend feels forced to me. But we arrive at similar conclusions based on different methods (mine is fib levels and BB), so who cares.

The following is now what I consider the 'best case scenario that still has hope to play out', essentially a replay of the April/May situation, only $80 moved upwards. It's a sketch of course. Add more wiggles and small swings in between as you see fit.

[Gimmelfarb]

i am still bullish (not to the moon bullish), but think we are near the local bottom. i still think we may retest the $538 low, and could go as low as the $520 area and still retain the trend. (i think in such a case, we will bounce right back above the pierced trend line, perhaps with a hammer doji)

[Arghhh]

If the 51% breach is handled convincingly and does no significant damage, then IMO we still are headed for a bubble in the near-future with this wildcard: Bitlicense

http://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-taking-bitcoin-exchange-applications-2014-3

"Lawsky also said the state will issue a final regulatory framework for digital currency businesses no later than Q2 of 2014."

Q2 2014 = June 30th, 2014

[BenjaminBarnes]

Long time reader first time poster.

MatTheCat - I have read your posts and enjoyed them for some time.

However, this:

The bottom of the market! What a fucking Jew of a thing to happen, eh wot?

is really hateful language. I am Jewish and a btc trader just like anyone else. If what I read is true and you are from Germany, then I regret that you have not moved passed this type of thing and I can only hope that you are not representing modern German culture with your blatant anti-Semitic language. In all other respects you seem cool... maybe you can shake it off and we can move forward. I would hate to think that your true feelings mirror your language.

[MatTheCat]

Long time reader first time poster.

MatTheCat - I have read your posts and enjoyed them for some time.

However, this:

The bottom of the market! What a fucking Jew of a thing to happen, eh wot?

is really hateful language. I am Jewish and a btc trader just like anyone else. If what I read is true and you are from Germany, then I regret that you have not moved passed this type of thing and I can only hope that you are not representing modern German culture with your blatant anti-Semitic language. In all other respects you seem cool... maybe you can shake it off and we can move forward. I would hate to think that your true feelings mirror your language.

I am not from Germany and I don't live in Germany. I am Scottish, and I live in Scotland. I am not sure why I used that particular profanity. Maybe cos I was arguing with a German whose culture has trained him to be almost as offended by using the word 'Jew' in a negative light as much as the Anti-Defamation League would be themselves?

But perhaps you do have a point, and I am genuinely not interested in trying to cast negative lights over any individual(s) based on their cultural or ethnic background.


In future, when I feel that I have somehow been bamboozled, swindled, or ripped off, I shall instead say:

"Argghhhh....what a Yew of a thing to happen!"

or when discussing Geo-politics:
"Everyone knows that the Yews have gotten control of America"
and
"It woz the Yews wot did 9/11!"

btw...my favourite comedian is a Yew. A Scottish Yew. Jerry Sadowitz! If my favourite comedian is a Yew, then I can't be racist against the Yews, right!?

 

[BenjaminBarnes]

Apologies for misunderstanding re: German origin. What is the benefit of having a German bank account when you live in Scotland? A bit off topic.

[MatTheCat]

Apologies for misunderstanding re: German origin. What is the benefit of having a German bank account when you live in Scotland? A bit off topic.

I opened it simply as a means of cheaply getting money onto Bitstamp. I can transfer GBP cheaply to my German bank account for very little cost, and then from my German account to Bitstamp for free. Transfering GBP directly to Bitstamp, costs me around 4% due to hidden fees. Phuckin intolerable.

Now that I have foreign bank account, I can see plenty other advantages of having it as well. Travelling across the Eurozone, getting payments that are kept outwith HMRCs sight, and also a means of shifting wealth around should any further financial unpleasantness transpire. I think the one country whose financial system will remain solid no matter what is Germany. Thus a German bank account might prove to be a prudent place to keep my worthless fiat in going forward......or it might not, in which case I could empty out anything I might have there back into my UK account.

[BenjaminBarnes]

Cool. Did you go there to open it or did you just make an international phone call or website visit?

Best,

BB

[Wolf Rainer]

What it´s going on now?

[seleme]

There is always some drama in Bitcoin land. I really wouldn't exclude anything at least until we see this first FBI coin auction. I wouldn't be shocked to see price being pushed down more so big boys could get those coins cheaper.

[oda.krell]

Long time reader first time poster.

MatTheCat - I have read your posts and enjoyed them for some time.

However, this:

The bottom of the market! What a fucking Jew of a thing to happen, eh wot?

is really hateful language. I am Jewish and a btc trader just like anyone else. If what I read is true and you are from Germany, then I regret that you have not moved passed this type of thing and I can only hope that you are not representing modern German culture with your blatant anti-Semitic language. In all other respects you seem cool... maybe you can shake it off and we can move forward. I would hate to think that your true feelings mirror your language.

I am not from Germany and I don't live in Germany. I am Scottish, and I live in Scotland. I am not sure why I used that particular profanity. Maybe cos I was arguing with a German whose culture has trained him to be almost as offended by using the word 'Jew' in a negative light as much as the Anti-Defamation League would be themselves?

But perhaps you do have a point, and I am genuinely not interested in trying to cast negative lights over any individual(s) based on their cultural or ethnic background.


In future, when I feel that I have somehow been bamboozled, swindled, or ripped off, I shall instead say:

"Argghhhh....what a Yew of a thing to happen!"

or when discussing Geo-politics:
"Everyone knows that the Yews have gotten control of America"
and
"It woz the Yews wot did 9/11!"

btw...my favourite comedian is a Yew. A Scottish Yew. Jerry Sadowitz! If my favourite comedian is a Yew, then I can't be racist against the Yews, right!?

 

Yeah Mat, don't do that.

Just say gypped, completely inoffensive. I have that on good authority from a spic.

[pastet89]

According to this we must be heading to 2.5K at the end of summer. However, why it started falling again ?