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Author Topic: Bitcoin Toss - Flip a coin and win double your entry!  (Read 15553 times)
Alex Beckenham
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May 12, 2011, 03:49:20 AM
 #81

So I bet 3, tried to flip and it hasn't loaded yet....

Hi DS, I've restarted bitcoin and will refund those 3 coins to your payment address, as soon as the entry payment is confirmed.

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BitcoinsWallet
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May 14, 2011, 10:53:27 AM
 #82

doood, thank you for this game.
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May 14, 2011, 09:45:16 PM
 #83

2 Bets which I was told won, but I never received my payment. I have already messaged you the details dood.
Alex Beckenham
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May 15, 2011, 05:20:19 AM
 #84

2 Bets which I was told won, but I never received my payment. I have already messaged you the details dood.

Sent and sent.

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May 15, 2011, 06:01:50 AM
 #85

Sent BTC but never got the coin flip.  Just sitting there waiting for confirmation.
Aphelion27
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May 15, 2011, 06:15:31 AM
 #86

Sent more info in PM..
davux
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May 20, 2011, 09:38:41 PM
 #87

Copy-paste machine or human bug: I sent a bet with the same address as the previous one: http://blockexplorer.com/address/1PzhrDmpeogSNnnr7HZLxTo8s6x9MVnXmX

The first payment was 55 BTC (and I lost), the second one was 100 BTC, which was never taken into account because the program was expecting the coins to arrive on another address.

It's quite a lot of money. If I had lost I wouldn't ask for anything, but in this case I just sent the bet to the previous address. Can you please return me the coins so that I can send them to the right address, or just accept them as a valid bet so that I can play? I think that's a honest request – if you allow me to play and I happen to lose, it will be fair (I'm only hoping that you won't program my next game to be a losing one Wink ).

Thanks in advance, sorry for the confusion.

(I first sent the request by PM but go no answer so far.)

1DavuxH9tLqU4c7zvG387aTG4mA7BcRpp2
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BitcoinsWallet
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May 21, 2011, 12:40:11 AM
 #88

100BTC! Big bet....
randomguy7
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May 25, 2011, 05:36:28 PM
 #89

I've sent 0.55 BTC to 1PD1mi5qjvjpYZXekKXhikG8xHf8GMvZVY but my browser crashed before I was able to play the bet. Can you plz return the coins? Thx
Alex Beckenham
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May 25, 2011, 05:51:45 PM
 #90

I've sent 0.55 BTC to 1PD1mi5qjvjpYZXekKXhikG8xHf8GMvZVY but my browser crashed before I was able to play the bet. Can you plz return the coins? Thx

Done. Sent to 1J5C7kWezUak7RH6iDXrEZbinFC8m6nPzy Smiley


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May 26, 2011, 11:15:38 AM
 #91

played this for the last few hours with some spare change.

started with 0.4btc and now at 1.35btc. going to see how far i can take the winnings  Grin
Tukotih
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May 26, 2011, 05:11:48 PM
 #92

Lost 0.1
Lost 0.05
Won 0.01 (+0.02)
Lost 0.02
Won 0.05 (+0.1)

So in total I went -0.05 BTC
Nice design on the site and congrats! Smiley

Donations always appreciated: 1GkRu9rZxk5iMRzsrcZxZ3BUHV1SWNZ9RB
IMPORTANT! Switch from deepbit: http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=8653.0
kseistrup
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May 26, 2011, 06:22:48 PM
 #93


The part that cracked me up was that he "researched basic betting strategies".  The hell?  It's a COIN TOSS, with just under a 50% chance of getting the right answer.  What kind of strategies can you possibly have? 

If you keep gambling until you win — and you're bound to win sooner or later — and double your bet for each time you lose, the moment you win you will have a net gain equal to your first bet.  E.g., you bet BTC 1, and you lose. Next you bet BTC 2, and you win BTC 4 — but since you have spent BTC 3, you net gain is BTC 1.

Well, this is an ideal situation where the probability of winning and losing is the same.  In the case of win:lose = 49:51 you should probably multiply by 1/.49 (slightly more than 2.04).

If you set the multiplication factor to e.g. 3, you should be able to win more than your initial bet.  If we set the initial bet to 1 bitcent:

Code:

round      bet      sum   profit   p(lose)

 1:     0.01     0.01     0.01    51.00%
 2:     0.03     0.04     0.02    26.01%
 3:     0.09     0.13     0.05    13.27%
 4:     0.27     0.40     0.14     6.77%
 5:     0.81     1.21     0.41     3.45%
 6:     2.43     3.64     1.22     1.76%
 7:     7.29    10.93     3.65     0.90%
 8:    21.87    32.80    10.94     0.46%
 9:    65.61    98.41    32.81     0.23%
10:   196.83   295.24    98.42     0.12%
11:   590.49   885.73   295.25     0.06%


The ‘bet’ column is what you have to bet in each round if you lose in the previous round (except the first, of course).  The ‘sum’ column is your cumulative investment.  The ‘profit’ column is your net gain (twice your bet, less your cumulative investment).  The ‘p(lose)’ column is the probability of losing all rounds up to — and including — the given round.

So the strategy is:

  • Choose a multiplication factor > 2
  • Keep playing until you win (this implies: have lots of money before you start playing)
  • Keep you head cool and your heart calm

Have I overlooked something?

Cheers,

Klaus Alexander Seistrup
http://about.me/kseistrup
Alex Beckenham
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May 26, 2011, 11:31:49 PM
 #94

Have I overlooked something?

You've over-looked the fact that past results do not change the probabilities on the next turn.

So if you're betting 590.49 BTC on a single coin toss, don't be fooled into thinking that's any different to someone who just came along and put 590.49 BTC down on their FIRST turn. The only difference is that you have an 'investment' from the past but I'd say that investment is mostly emotional.

hoahoa
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May 27, 2011, 12:43:25 AM
 #95

Lost 5 times in a row  Angry
no more change to play with.
kseistrup
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May 27, 2011, 05:53:44 AM
 #96


You've over-looked the fact that past results do not change the probabilities on the next turn.

I'm aware that the probabilities don't change.  What I'm betting on is that I'm unlikely to lose many times in a row.  E.g., if I play this game until the end of time I will find that on the average I will only lose 5 times in a row in 3.45% of the cases.  But of course that also means that I'm even more unlikely to lose 6 times in a row and win the 7th roll.

Quote

The only difference is that you have an 'investment' from the past but I'd say that investment is mostly emotional.

Past is past and cannot be undone.  I do not have an investment from the past, not even an emotional one.  What I do have, is a strategy to try and win back — in the present — an amount equal to my losses, and then some.

However, since the dice aren't fair (in the sense that the chances of losing and winning are ≠ .5) the house will be the winner in the long run.  Even more so because there's an upper limit to each bet, which means I'm not free to play until I win.  Still I'd say that my best strategy — if I were to play this game — would be to bet at least twice as much as I bet on previous roll and lost.

Cheers,

Klaus Alexander Seistrup
http://about.me/kseistrup
Alex Beckenham
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May 27, 2011, 06:44:20 AM
 #97

I do not have an investment from the past, not even an emotional one.  What I do have, is a strategy to try and win back — in the present — an amount equal to my losses, and then some.

If someone uses the term 'win back', that indicates to me that they have an emotional investment in it.

If someone is simply playing to win money in the *present* with no emotional attachment, total losses from the past should be completely irrelevant.

I've found that doesn't reflect reality however as almost everyone who plays 7 rounds will likely have the first 6 on their mind as they play the 7th.

davux
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May 28, 2011, 01:42:21 AM
 #98

(I first sent the request by PM but go no answer so far.)

Alex Beckenham (formerly known as doood) won't send back the 100 BTC I mistakenly sent to the same address. The reason he gave me:

Quote from: Alex Beckenham
when 100 BTC was added, this *increased* the possible payout pool, which in turn made *more* btc available to winners, which have subsequently won those coins. I don't know how to make it any clearer, I don't physically have your extra 100 BTC.

So I answered that if he has less than 100 BTC in Bitcoin Toss's wallet, nobody will be able to bet 100 BTC and win, which means he's either lying to me, or Bitcoin Toss is a scam.

He never answered that message.

So we have 2 problems here:

  • I know I shouldn't have sent those 100 BTC to the wrong address (of the same wallet) in the first place, but if you see someone dropping a banknote in the street and you don't call them and give the money back, it's still theft (and even more if they come to you and you still refuse to give it back!).
  • Alex Beckenham needs to explain what "I don't physically have 100 BTC" means, and how this is compatible with Bitcoin Toss's promises.

1DavuxH9tLqU4c7zvG387aTG4mA7BcRpp2
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Alex Beckenham
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May 28, 2011, 04:25:43 AM
 #99

As of now, I am no longer supporting this site.

The number of people that try to scam me for refunds (+ more) is starting to outweigh the small % I've been taking. It's not worth my time to argue the point again and again to people who either are too stupid to understand or who are purposely trolling and fabricating in order to relieve me of my coins.

I'll be adding md5 verification to "Bitcoin Double" soon, if you want to keep playing, play there.

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