$50k to Invest - Convince Me!

[JessyMatt]

I have just allocated some serious money and thinking about investing about $50k on bitcoin. Someone convince me why I should buy $50k worth of bitcoins right now!

This is the bull case: http://www.honestnode.com/bitcoin-fair-value-a-first-assessment/

Make your own judgments about how reasonable the assumptions are.

Good Info...I'm reading now...thanks

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[JessyMatt]

buying at a dip is allways a nice idea.
my advice is to definetly buy bitcoin, but dont spend all 50k at once, start with 10k and get use to trading.

if bitcoin price dips to 500$ next few days, i would definetly buy, and same thing goes to litecoin under 9$
cheers

Too many good news coming out now for bitcoin price to dip. The Silk Road auction by the U.S. Marshals, bitcoin officially made legal in California, MaseterCard applying for bitcoin patents etc.

[leezay]

buying at a dip is allways a nice idea.
my advice is to definetly buy bitcoin, but dont spend all 50k at once, start with 10k and get use to trading.

if bitcoin price dips to 500$ next few days, i would definetly buy, and same thing goes to litecoin under 9$
cheers

Too many good news coming out now for bitcoin price to dip. The Silk Road auction by the U.S. Marshals, bitcoin officially made legal in California, MaseterCard applying for bitcoin patents etc.

And retail giant newegg and 1800 flowering about to accept bitcoin.

[okthen]

There's no time to convince you!
Buy quickly, as price is about to go up soon!

Then sell half at 4000$ and hodl the rest. Lucky you, with good money to invest at a good time

[ruletheworld]

Why do you want to be convinced? Or are you just looking for an echo chamber? How about doing your research on your own and reaching your own conclusions?

[DannyElfman]

buying at a dip is allways a nice idea.
my advice is to definetly buy bitcoin, but dont spend all 50k at once, start with 10k and get use to trading.

if bitcoin price dips to 500$ next few days, i would definetly buy, and same thing goes to litecoin under 9$
cheers

Too many good news coming out now for bitcoin price to dip. The Silk Road auction by the U.S. Marshals, bitcoin officially made legal in California, MaseterCard applying for bitcoin patents etc.

This is true for the long term, however it should be noted that over the short term there is a very good chance that bitcoin could fall.

[devphp]

Don't put all your money into Bitcoin, look into promising altcoins. Bitcoin is software. If software is not being developed, it's eventually replaced by better software. Bitcoin has stagnated in its development.

[keithers]

What was the price at the time this thread started vs right now? How much would the 50k be worth in todays prices?

[AdamSmith]

What was the price at the time this thread started vs right now? How much would the 50k be worth in todays prices?

Bitcoin went up quite a lot in the last 30 days. So, 50k worth back then would worth at least 60k USD in bitcoin today.

[DavidHume]

Buy some bitcoin ATM machines and put them next to western union in California could be profitable.

[boumalo]

Buy some bitcoin ATM machines and put them next to western union in California could be profitable.

The cost of regulation probably makes it way more expensive than 50k$ to get a single Bitcoin ATM in California, you have to be very rich to be able to live well in California because the taxes are huge

What was the price at the time this thread started vs right now? How much would the 50k be worth in todays prices?

Bitcoin went up quite a lot in the last 30 days. So, 50k worth back then would worth at least 60k USD in bitcoin today.

558$ in June 15, 658$ now so 50k$ worth of bitcoins back then would be 59k$ now

[counter]

The recent news out of Russia is good and to hold BTC would be smart. An recent review from the government is positve IMO.  From what I read they are waiting to see what more they can learn about BTC and feel it would not be wise to ban this type of currency.  Obviously things like Silk Road are mentioned buy that is the same with all curriencies.

To me it seems BTC is a potentially very good investment today and has proven to have been so in the past.

[zhinkk]

What's the rush? Dollar cost averaging over a long period of time to dispense the 50k into bitcoins sounds safer to me.

[Joca97]

its better if you invest all of those 50k into mining gear
and mine btc!you will be reach!

[DannyElfman]

its better if you invest all of those 50k into mining gear
and mine btc!you will be reach!

This is very bad advice. Most miners will never ROI

[Justine]

its better if you invest all of those 50k into mining gear
and mine btc!you will be reach!

Cheaper to buy coin directly if you are thinking about mining.

[chopstick]

Buying bitcoin is the best investment you can make. It's like the guaranteed lottery ticket of the century.

Anyone with a brain knows that mainstream adoption is going to happen. Paypal will integrate bitcoin and big companies like walmart and gas stations will start accepting BTC. Wall street is going to invest.

It is all going to happen very quickly, and when it does, the price will go from 1k to upwards of 10k very quickly. Most people here will be shocked.

Or if you don't believe me just give me your 50k and I will invest it for you.

[vuduchyld]

OP, you really didn't give much information to work with.

I think that in order to evaluate investment potential seriously, one would probably need to know a little more about:

--other investments you have made, in order to determine your portfolio diversity
--your personal degree of risk aversion, particularly for this investment
--perhaps most importantly, your time horizon for the investment--are you looking for returns in 6 months?  50 years?

Anybody who says that bitcoin has to keep going up because it has always gone up in the past is obviously not correct.  There are a ton of unknowns and unknowables. 

Whether it's $50K you want to invest or $5K or $500K is really immaterial.  Bitcoin could grow significantly in value.  It could also drop precipitously.  If you're cashing out a 401(k) from a job change and this represents your largest holding, I wouldn't invest it all in bitcoin...not even a significant chunk.  This is speculation, really, not an investment based on fundamentals.  If you've got a couple million and you're looking for a fun, interesting, and involved way of taking on some risk, by all means, have fun.

[vuduchyld]

I have just allocated some serious money and thinking about investing about $50k on bitcoin. Someone convince me why I should buy $50k worth of bitcoins right now!

This is the bull case: http://www.honestnode.com/bitcoin-fair-value-a-first-assessment/

Make your own judgments about how reasonable the assumptions are.

It was an interesting read.  I hate to say it, because I would LOVE to believe in his final valuation tally, but I can't really get on board with it at this point for a couple of reasons:

1)  I believe his calculations on velocity are incorrect.  He seems to be counting too many transactions in his measure of velocity.  I can't get at it for certain, but it looks as though he would count mining activity as a transaction.  It is not the case that the printing of fiat counts as a transaction of that dollar value, so his calculation of velocity is not an apples-to-apples comparison.

2)  The author took some fairly wild leaps in assuming that Bitcoin would account for 10% of the global remittance market, 10% of all internet transactions, and even 10% of black market transactions.  That is a LOT of adoption almost all completely betting on the come.

3)  Not sure how the M2 piece is somehow additive to other elements of price/value.  In my humble opinion, and I recognize that I could be completely wrong, analyzing as M2 is a separate analysis, not additive to other elements.  In my view, M2 is actually probably the best tool for estimating price/value for Bitcoin, but I don't think you can do that analysis and then add it to the other elements of value.  I'd also add that he flat out plucked that $27.2 billion out of thin air.  There really isn't any rational analysis for why one might use the M2 of a medium country as opposed to a small one or even as opposed to the US M2.

So...good read, lots of thought-provoking elements, but I think he's shooting pretty high with the analysis.

[LazerSMS]

Spend them on building and advertising a bitcoin gambling site, THAT is an investment.