Will a war start in Ukraine?

[bryant.coleman]

Major cities are Donetsk and Lugansk, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk are just "outposts". And even they are not "lost", don't know what you actually meant by this word...

Where I live, we call cities with a population of more than 100,000 as major cities. Yes. They are lost. Kramatorsk is almost fully under the control of the Ukrainian Army, while Slavyansk is almost 50% under their control.

[niothor]

Major cities are Donetsk and Lugansk, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk are just "outposts". And even they are not "lost", don't know what you actually meant by this word...

Where I live, we call cities with a population of more than 100,000 as major cities. Yes. They are lost. Kramatorsk is almost fully under the control of the Ukrainian Army, while Slavyansk is almost 50% under their control.

What country is that? Antarctica? Oh , wait , you never answer this question.

But really , calling cities that are not even 10% of the population of the top 3 , and not included in the top 20 by population "major" is a bit off.

[TaunSew]

Russia is not the USSR.  Russia has a way smaller economy, population, demilitarized a lot in the past twenty years and has few international allies.  Much like Britain, Russia basks in its' former greatness but it's largely a paper tiger compared to what it used to be.

If you read military blogs on Russia - they aren't strong enough to win a war against Ukraine, it would stalemate into a bloody conflict.   Rocketry technology is such that modern wars now are all infantry slug fests.  Something like WW2 arguably can't be repeated anymore since it's too expensive to produce vehicles relative to the cost of missiles.  It's similiar to how people stopped wearing plate armours when guns became more common.

[bryant.coleman]

Russia is not the USSR.  Russia has a way smaller economy, population, demilitarized a lot in the past twenty years and has few international allies.  Much like Britain, Russia basks in its' former greatness but it's largely a paper tiger compared to what it used to be.

Might have lost half the population, but Russia is still very powerful. They have the best ICMBs in the world, the most number of active nuclear warheads and the most accurate air-defence systems. The army is a bit smaller, but once the modernization drive is over, it will also rank as one of the best in the world.

[deisik]

Major cities are Donetsk and Lugansk, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk are just "outposts". And even they are not "lost", don't know what you actually meant by this word...

Where I live, we call cities with a population of more than 100,000 as major cities. Yes. They are lost. Kramatorsk is almost fully under the control of the Ukrainian Army, while Slavyansk is almost 50% under their control.

Stalingrad was over 90% controlled by Wehrmacht, but the Soviets still didn't lose the city. It seems that you don't quite understand what's going on in these cities now. If the Ukrainian troops have entered into, say, Kramatorsk, this doesn't in the least mean that they begin controlling it. They may control a block, a street (or two) at the moment, but not the whole city all the time (they just don't have enough manpower to do it)...

[niothor]

Major cities are Donetsk and Lugansk, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk are just "outposts". And even they are not "lost", don't know what you actually meant by this word...

Where I live, we call cities with a population of more than 100,000 as major cities. Yes. They are lost. Kramatorsk is almost fully under the control of the Ukrainian Army, while Slavyansk is almost 50% under their control.

Stalingrad was over 90% controlled by Wehrmacht, but the Soviets still didn't lose the city. It seems that you don't quite understand what's going on in these cities now. If the Ukrainian troops have entered into, say, Kramatorsk, this doesn't in the least mean that they begin controlling it. They may control a block, a street (or two) at the moment, but not the whole city all the time...

Slight difference that can change all the picture.
Stalingrad was never completely encircled by the Wehrmacht.
Also , rebels can't expect an army twice as big as their foe to come to their help.

[deisik]

Major cities are Donetsk and Lugansk, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk are just "outposts". And even they are not "lost", don't know what you actually meant by this word...

Where I live, we call cities with a population of more than 100,000 as major cities. Yes. They are lost. Kramatorsk is almost fully under the control of the Ukrainian Army, while Slavyansk is almost 50% under their control.

Stalingrad was over 90% controlled by Wehrmacht, but the Soviets still didn't lose the city. It seems that you don't quite understand what's going on in these cities now. If the Ukrainian troops have entered into, say, Kramatorsk, this doesn't in the least mean that they begin controlling it. They may control a block, a street (or two) at the moment, but not the whole city all the time...

Slight difference that can change all the picture.
Stalingrad was never completely encircled by the Wehrmacht.
Also , rebels can't expect an army twice as big as their foe to come to their help.

Neither are Kramatorsk and Slavyansk actually. Don't take it at face-value when they tell you that the cities are "completely encircled". They are not, pro-government forces may actually control "major" (lol) roads around them, but they don't control the territory. As I said before, they just don't have enough manpower to do the trick of a total blockade (which would count for "completely encircled")... 

[niothor]

Neither are Kramatorsk and Slavyansk actually. Don't take it at face-value when they tell you that the cities are "completely encircled". They are not, pro-government forces may actually control "major" (lol) roads around them, but they don't control the territory. As I said before, they just don't have enough manpower to do the trick of a total blockade (which would count for "completely encircled")...  

Let's follow your assumptions for a moment.
How much in man power and numbers would they required do do this "trick" according to you?

[deisik]

Neither are Kramatorsk and Slavyansk actually. Don't take it at face-value when they tell you that the cities are "completely encircled". They are not, pro-government forces may actually control "major" (lol) roads around them, but they don't control the territory. As I said before, they just don't have enough manpower to do the trick of a total blockade (which would count for "completely encircled")... 

Let's follow your assumptions for a moment.
How much in man power and numbers would they required do do this "trick" according to you?

Orders of magnitude if counting only by numbers. But it is not just sheer numbers, they would also have to carry out some form of "ethnic cleansing" (e.g. temporarily send the population to concentration camps or whatever they may be called, as Russians did in the Chechen wars)...

[niothor]

Neither are Kramatorsk and Slavyansk actually. Don't take it at face-value when they tell you that the cities are "completely encircled". They are not, pro-government forces may actually control "major" (lol) roads around them, but they don't control the territory. As I said before, they just don't have enough manpower to do the trick of a total blockade (which would count for "completely encircled")... 

Let's follow your assumptions for a moment.
How much in man power and numbers would they required do do this "trick" according to you?

Orders of magnitude if counting only by numbers. But it is not just sheer numbers, they would also have to carry out some form of "ethnic cleansing" (e.g. temporarily send the population to concentration camps or whatever they may be called, as Russians did in the Chechen wars)...

With half of the city already deserted I don't think that there is too much to do.
And the city is not a large one to actually require thousands of troops to encircle but...concentration camps?

I can't believe you've said that?
Did the Russians send civilians to concentrations camps during the Chechen wars?
I think you are mistaken

[deisik]

Neither are Kramatorsk and Slavyansk actually. Don't take it at face-value when they tell you that the cities are "completely encircled". They are not, pro-government forces may actually control "major" (lol) roads around them, but they don't control the territory. As I said before, they just don't have enough manpower to do the trick of a total blockade (which would count for "completely encircled")... 

Let's follow your assumptions for a moment.
How much in man power and numbers would they required do do this "trick" according to you?

Orders of magnitude if counting only by numbers. But it is not just sheer numbers, they would also have to carry out some form of "ethnic cleansing" (e.g. temporarily send the population to concentration camps or whatever they may be called, as Russians did in the Chechen wars)...

With half of the city already deserted I don't think that there is too much to do.
And the city is not a large one to actually require thousands of troops to encircle but...concentration camps?

I can't believe you've said that?
Did the Russians send civilians to concentrations camps during the Chechen wars?
I think you are mistaken

Lol, this was just what the U.S. government did to the Japanese population of the USA after the Pearl Harbor attack. Regarding the Russians sending civilians to concentration camps during the Chechen wars, these camps were not indeed called that. There were camps for displaced persons, but when you take up military actions in the hostile territory where population is not very loyal to central authorities, you don't have much choice unless you're going for total genocide...

[deisik]

With half of the city already deserted I don't think that there is too much to do.
And the city is not a large one to actually require thousands of troops to encircle but...concentration camps?

You forget that this territory (i.e. Donbass) is one of the most densely populated in Europe (only the Rhine-Ruhr metropolitan region in Germany is more urbanized, if I'm not mistaken), and cities are actually bordering with each other, so your remark about half of the city already deserted makes no sense (let alone "encircling" it)...

So it is not about just one city, it is about taking under control the whole region, and what's even more important, keeping this control over the territory!

[niothor]

With half of the city already deserted I don't think that there is too much to do.
And the city is not a large one to actually require thousands of troops to encircle but...concentration camps?

You forget that this territory (i.e. Donbass) is one of the most densely populated in Europe (only the Rhine-Ruhr metropolitan region in Germany is more urbanized, if I'm not mistaken), and cities are actually bordering with each other, so your remark about half of the city already deserted makes no sense (let alone "encircling" it)...

So it is not about just one city, it is about taking under control the whole region, and what's even more important, keeping this control over the territory!

With 164 inhabitants per square km , I can't call that the most densely populated area in Europe. =))
The United Kingdom has  255 for example.
And the Ruhr area 1,422/km2.

[deisik]

With half of the city already deserted I don't think that there is too much to do.
And the city is not a large one to actually require thousands of troops to encircle but...concentration camps?

You forget that this territory (i.e. Donbass) is one of the most densely populated in Europe (only the Rhine-Ruhr metropolitan region in Germany is more urbanized, if I'm not mistaken), and cities are actually bordering with each other, so your remark about half of the city already deserted makes no sense (let alone "encircling" it)...

So it is not about just one city, it is about taking under control the whole region, and what's even more important, keeping this control over the territory!

With 164 inhabitants per square km , I can't call that the most densely populated area in Europe. =))
The United Kingdom has  255 for example.
And the Ruhr area 1,422/km2.

I don't know where you got these figures from, but the population of the Kramatorsk urban agglomeration is around half a million people. And there are other three (from which two are even bigger) agglomerations in the Donetsk region with a total population of around 4.5 million people...

So you guess the military force required to control the area (Chechen population was around just one million in the 90s)!

[niothor]

With half of the city already deserted I don't think that there is too much to do.
And the city is not a large one to actually require thousands of troops to encircle but...concentration camps?

You forget that this territory (i.e. Donbass) is one of the most densely populated in Europe (only the Rhine-Ruhr metropolitan region in Germany is more urbanized, if I'm not mistaken), and cities are actually bordering with each other, so your remark about half of the city already deserted makes no sense (let alone "encircling" it)...

So it is not about just one city, it is about taking under control the whole region, and what's even more important, keeping this control over the territory!

With 164 inhabitants per square km , I can't call that the most densely populated area in Europe. =))
The United Kingdom has  255 for example.
And the Ruhr area 1,422/km2.

I don't know where you got these figures from, but the population of the Kramatorsk urban agglomeration is around half a million people. And there are other three (from which two are even bigger) agglomerations in the Donetsk region with a total population of around 4.5 million people...

So you guess the military force required to control the area (Chechen population was around just one million inhabitants in the 90s)!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luhansk_Oblast
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast

6 millions people in both spread over 50 000 km2.

For comparison the Ruhr area has twice the inhabitants in 1/7 of the area.

[deisik]

With half of the city already deserted I don't think that there is too much to do.
And the city is not a large one to actually require thousands of troops to encircle but...concentration camps?

You forget that this territory (i.e. Donbass) is one of the most densely populated in Europe (only the Rhine-Ruhr metropolitan region in Germany is more urbanized, if I'm not mistaken), and cities are actually bordering with each other, so your remark about half of the city already deserted makes no sense (let alone "encircling" it)...

So it is not about just one city, it is about taking under control the whole region, and what's even more important, keeping this control over the territory!

With 164 inhabitants per square km , I can't call that the most densely populated area in Europe. =))
The United Kingdom has  255 for example.
And the Ruhr area 1,422/km2.

I don't know where you got these figures from, but the population of the Kramatorsk urban agglomeration is around half a million people. And there are other three (from which two are even bigger) agglomerations in the Donetsk region with a total population of around 4.5 million people...

So you guess the military force required to control the area (Chechen population was around just one million inhabitants in the 90s)!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luhansk_Oblast
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast

6 millions people in both spread over 50 000 km2.

Okay, so we have 6 million people you are going to control from which over 90% are hell bent pro-Russian (even if the majority of them won't take to arms)... Your actions and how much manpower would you need?

[deisik]

From Wikipedia on the Donetsk region (which is the core of the Smaller Donbass, by the way):

In 2012 the population of Donetsk Oblast is 4.4 million, which constituted 10% of the overall Ukrainian population, making it the most populous and most densely populated region of the country. Its large population is due to the presence of several big industrial cities and numerous villages agglomerated around them