Metcalfe's Law: Bitcoin Price and Adoption Analysis for the Future

[Raystonn]

What would be the purpose of dividing adoption-squared by number of coins?  I don't see how that is useful.

[valiron]

What would be the purpose of dividing adoption-squared by number of coins?  I don't see how that is useful.

This is basic. Imagine that the number of coins doubles. Then the price is divided by two.

Therefore the objective price is inversely proportional to the number of coins in existence. Any model for price should take this into account. Indeed, one could only consider the number of coins that are not lost, but the estimates on these differ.

This will give a small correction to your formula, that may be irrelevant now but not in 1 or 2 years.

[lunarboy]

 Relating (Unique Addresses ^2) to user adoption would become flawed with the increased use of HD wallets. Or at least the prediction will probably be increasingly skewed  from this point onwards. ?

[Raystonn]

Any model for price should take this into account.

That is already priced in to the real price.  We don't need to adjust anything.

[valiron]

Any model for price should take this into account.

That is already priced in to the real price.  We don't need to adjust anything.

It is not in your model that is supposed to give an estimation of the price.

You should think first. Read it again.

[bitpump]

Hi, can you please post update for 2015 ?

[kwukduck]

Hi, can you please post update for 2015 ?

I doubt it. It will look totally ridiculous.

[xatic]

what about 2018