Bullish?

[Zohann]

I've done my DD.  I see people buying and selling and posting TA and charts and shit.  I get it ... they are probably trying to get as many coins as possible.  However, Is there any doubt that bitcoin will be worth over 5k 3 years from now?  Just for some perspective...  I bought my first 5 coins for just over a grand each.  I DCA'd all the way down ... to $418.  I'm selling my 66% of my silver collection to buy more, and just took out a 40k loan to buy even more. I'm 39 Years old.. and have been investing all my adult life boglehead style.  How can this not get to 5k+ besides SHA256 being cracked?

[TERA]

Actually most people here will call your viewpoint bearish for saying for saying that it could be an "entire 3 years" before we reach $5K. That's like an eternity.

[wobber]

Actually most people here will call your viewpoint bearish for saying for saying that it could be an "entire 3 years" before we reach $5K. That's like an eternity.

True. 3 years sentiment is something like 50,000 USD...

[Zohann]

I posted in another thread earlier... but I want to reiterate it here.  If the US Marshalls auction coins sell for a Premium  the company that buys them WILL advertise the price they bought them for.  This news will provide  a floor for the price. 

[piramida]

How can this not get to 5k+ besides SHA256 being cracked?

In the order of probability, from higher to lower:

1. Evil power takes over 50% hashing and corrupts blockchain just for fun.
2. There is some critical bug that no security expert noticed in 5 years and it will go unnoticed while some hacker slowly steals all coins.
3. Humanity destroys itself with nukes, back to stone age with no electricity.
4. Sun's magnetic impulse destroys planetary power grids.
5. Everybody become bored of bitcoin and walk away and start using Doge.
6. Trolls from this subforum are actually right and we're heading to zero upside down.

[TERA]

I am definitely bullish on a 3 year perspective. I have no TA to show you that it wouldn't be 5K in 3 years from now. The only thing that could cause this would be a serious fundamental change:
- EC is cracked
- There is a serious vulnerability, virus, or failure in the protocol that cannot be recovered
- Ban by U.S. government
- A complete economic meltdown or world chaos  (in a way such that bitcoin is not used for capital flight)
- A competitor

[sgk]

I also bought my first couple of Bitcoins above $1000 threshold and I sure hope it becomes a worthy investment few years from now. BTC is my retirement package.

[master-P]

I think $5k in 3 years is a reasonable estimate, as opposed to the $50k predictions. Most likely, we'll see new coins that can actually compete with BTC for market share by then. At the very least, we'll see the banks try to fight BTC or implement a system where they can milk profit from cryptos.

[Alley]

I think $5k is a strong possibility.  Too many impatient people want it to happen immediately.  Remember the block reward will be halving in a year and a half.  50% less coins will be mined each day.  I'd say in about a year miners will start to price this in and raise there ask prices.  This alone could double the price.

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

I am definitely bullish on a 3 year perspective. I have no TA to show you that it wouldn't be 5K in 3 years from now. The only thing that could cause this would be a serious fundamental change:
- EC is cracked
- There is a serious vulnerability, virus, or failure in the protocol that cannot be recovered
- Ban by U.S. government
- A complete economic meltdown or world chaos  (in a way such that bitcoin is not used for capital flight)
- A competitor

What is EC? BTW, I also agree on being bullish in a 3 year perspective - not sure about specific target, though. The most serious risk, I think, is a better competitor. There is a lot of room for improvement in btc - horribly wasteful mining, very long confirmation times etc.

EDIT: typo

[rudius]

Actually most people here will call your viewpoint bearish for saying for saying that it could be an "entire 3 years" before we reach $5K. That's like an eternity.

Agreed 100%. 5k in 3 years is too conservative. Serious events will happen this year and the next. Events that will boost the price to new level very quickly.

[oda.krell]

I am definitely bullish on a 3 year perspective. I have no TA to show you that it wouldn't be 5K in 3 years from now. The only thing that could cause this would be a serious fundamental change:
- EC is cracked
- There is a serious vulnerability, virus, or failure in the protocol that cannot be recovered
- Ban by U.S. government
- A complete economic meltdown or world chaos  (in a way such that bitcoin is not used for capital flight)
- A competitor

What is EC? BTW, I also agree on being bullish in a 3 year perspective - not sure about specific target, though. The most serious risk, I think, is a better competitor. There is a lot of room for improvement in btc - horribly wasteful mining, very long confirmation times etc.

EDIT: typo

Elliptic curve. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliptic_Curve_DSA

What's wrong with "wasteful mining"? A) In total, it's almost nothing compared to the energy demands of other services we consider useful, and B) the alternative, proof of stake (instead of proof of work), comes with its own disadvantages (see Gavin's comment for example: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1oi7su/criticisms_of_proofofstake/ccsd6rm)

[yayayo]

I've done my DD.  I see people buying and selling and posting TA and charts and shit.  I get it ... they are probably trying to get as many coins as possible.  However, Is there any doubt that bitcoin will be worth over 5k 3 years from now?  Just for some perspective...  I bought my first 5 coins for just over a grand each.  I DCA'd all the way down ... to $418.  I'm selling my 66% of my silver collection to buy more, and just took out a 40k loan to buy even more. I'm 39 Years old.. and have been investing all my adult life boglehead style.  How can this not get to 5k+ besides SHA256 being cracked?

Don't take a loan to invest. Never.

There no "sure thing". Bitcoin is very promising technology but it is not a sure thing that it will succeed and reach the value you want it to reach. Bitcoin is still high-risk.

ya.ya.yo!

[abacus]

Don't take a loan to invest. Never.
There no "sure thing". Bitcoin is very promising technology but it is not a sure thing that it will succeed and reach the value you want it to reach. Bitcoin is still high-risk.

This.
I think the only thing worst than losing your money is losing money you still have to repay.
But despite the fact that it's probably a trivial thinking, I'm still surprised by how many people want to accept so high risks.

[bitcoinsrus]

Don't take a loan to invest. Never.
There no "sure thing". Bitcoin is very promising technology but it is not a sure thing that it will succeed and reach the value you want it to reach. Bitcoin is still high-risk.

This.
I think the only thing worst than losing your money is losing money you still have to repay.
But beside the fact that it's probably a trivial thinking, I'm still surprised by how many people want to accept so high risks.

I think of that when my folks gamble, its like if you know how those casino machines actually worked. They are smarter than people  .
The cards are probably rigged to, but who knows. People like to take risks. The horses have like bad odds but people try to pick the right one for a huge gain.

[Zohann]

Don't take a loan to invest. Never.
There no "sure thing". Bitcoin is very promising technology but it is not a sure thing that it will succeed and reach the value you want it to reach. Bitcoin is still high-risk.

This.
I think the only thing worst than losing your money is losing money you still have to repay.
But beside the fact that it's probably a trivial thinking, I'm still surprised by how many people want to accept so high risks.

I think of that when my folks gamble, its like if you know how those casino machines actually worked. They are smarter than people  .
The cards are probably rigged to, but who knows. People like to take risks. The horses have like bad odds but people try to pick the right one for a huge gain.

Conventional widom says never take a loan to invest.   This advice is a broad statement which is applicable to the vast majority of investors.  I've taken out a loan for investment only one other time in my life... to buy Silver back in 2004. 

[boumalo]

I've done my DD.  I see people buying and selling and posting TA and charts and shit.  I get it ... they are probably trying to get as many coins as possible.  However, Is there any doubt that bitcoin will be worth over 5k 3 years from now?  Just for some perspective...  I bought my first 5 coins for just over a grand each.  I DCA'd all the way down ... to $418.  I'm selling my 66% of my silver collection to buy more, and just took out a 40k loan to buy even more. I'm 39 Years old.. and have been investing all my adult life boglehead style.  How can this not get to 5k+ besides SHA256 being cracked?

If you bought for a quick profit or not knowing the volatility you didn't do enough due diligence before investing, it is weird that you snapped like that and panic if you were investing boglehead style

I would suggest having a position that is bearable for you; it was a tough few months for someone going all-in at the very peak in Nov/Dec; you are probably doing OK with a price @ 610$ if you bought regularly and evenly all the way down

[tabnloz]

Actually most people here will call your viewpoint bearish for saying for saying that it could be an "entire 3 years" before we reach $5K. That's like an eternity.

Haha thats true. but bitcoin seems to overshoot both ways in rapid timeframes. then it stays relatively stable when everyone expects big movement. good news sees a sell off, rumours are dime a dozen. its the honey badger u cant kill it or predict it!!!