Following: a great week or two to buy BTC

[Biodom]

BTC is currently scraping the bottom of the trend (see graph produced by SlipperySlope):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=7
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.0

mining difficulty and network speed increased ≥20 fold since December and keeps growing at the current growth rate of ~20% every 10-11 days.
http://bitcoindifficulty.com/
....but mining efficiency increased only 2-3-fold (in GH/w), jeopardizing mining revenue and, as such, future network growth or at the least, network decentralization.

BTC price, meanwhile, is at the same levels as early November (early bubble).
We will see how it will turns out, but I am speculating that we are about to trend significantly higher (within the next 14-30 days).

[bananaControl]

BTC is currently scraping the bottom of the trend (see graph produced by SlipperySlope):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=7
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.0

mining difficulty and network speed increased ≥20 fold since December and keeps growing at the current growth rate of ~20% every 10-11 days.
http://bitcoindifficulty.com/
....but mining efficiency increased only 2-3-fold (in GH/w), jeopardizing mining revenue and, as such, future network growth or at the least, network decentralization.

BTC price, meanwhile, is at the same levels as early November (early bubble).
We will see how it will turns out, but I am speculating that we are about to trend significantly higher (within the next 14-30 days).

Either that or a catastrophic plunge into the abyss. I'm personally buying bitcoins like crazy at the moment and probably more than good is. In any case, this summer ought to be interesting indeed 

[zimmah]

What would be the reason for bitcoin to plunge into the abyss? It survived Silk Road and gox, surely it won't collapse for no reason.

[bananaControl]

What would be the reason for bitcoin to plunge into the abyss? It survived Silk Road and gox, surely it won't collapse for no reason.

The point is that the price will soon have to go up in order for mining to be profitable, if mining ends up being a bad business for a relatively long period of time it could trigger a snowball effect on the price.

[BTCfan1]

What would be the reason for bitcoin to plunge into the abyss? It survived Silk Road and gox, surely it won't collapse for no reason.

The point is that the price will soon have to go up in order for mining to be profitable, if mining ends up being a bad business for a relatively long period of time it could trigger a snowball effect on the price.

when the block reward halves, won't that essentially FORCE the price up?

[DubFX]

What would be the reason for bitcoin to plunge into the abyss? It survived Silk Road and gox, surely it won't collapse for no reason.

The point is that the price will soon have to go up in order for mining to be profitable, if mining ends up being a bad business for a relatively long period of time it could trigger a snowball effect on the price.

when the block reward halves, won't that essentially FORCE the price up?

It SHOULD but it isn't a rule at all...btw when is the next halving?

[bananaControl]

Either that or a catastrophic plunge into the abyss. I'm personally buying bitcoins like crazy at the moment and probably more than good is. In any case, this summer ought to be interesting indeed  

Also, let me clarify. I don't think bitcoin will die or go to zero, that is simply not possible because some would always use and mine it for fun and not profit, but a really depressing and dark year is not unthinkable. But in the long run I'm a huge bull 

[DubFX]

Either that or a catastrophic plunge into the abyss. I'm personally buying bitcoins like crazy at the moment and probably more than good is. In any case, this summer ought to be interesting indeed  

Also, let me clarify. I don't think bitcoin will die or go to zero, that is simply not possible because some would always use and mine it for fun and not profit, but a really depressing and dark year is not unthinkable. But in the long run I'm a huge bull 

We all hope that that year was the year of mtgox, don't we? But yeah anything could still happen.

[bananaControl]

Either that or a catastrophic plunge into the abyss. I'm personally buying bitcoins like crazy at the moment and probably more than good is. In any case, this summer ought to be interesting indeed  

Also, let me clarify. I don't think bitcoin will die or go to zero, that is simply not possible because some would always use and mine it for fun and not profit, but a really depressing and dark year is not unthinkable. But in the long run I'm a huge bull  

We all hope that that year was the year of mtgox, don't we? But yeah anything could still happen.

Let's hope so.

This is basically my not very likely short/medium term nightmare scenario:

- Mining stays unprofitable for such a long time that miners who depend on a profit to run their business will have to turn off their equipment, leaving only hobby miners and a huge drop in hashing power as a result.
- The miners who now have to stop mining will dump all the bitcoins they were holding in hopes of a short term rise in price that just never happened.
- The dumping and massive loss of hashing power all in a time when a new ATH was expected will scare the bejeebers out of many people further fueling the snowball effect.
- With all the miners leaving the stage a totally new mining landscape will form, and a new more serious 51% situation is not unthinkable - again weakening peoples trust in bitcoin.
- All the merchants who today accept bitcoin are already complaining that they have no or very few costumers who pay with bitcoin, if only hobby bitcoiners stay the merchants might lose all interest in bitcoin and stop accepting it.

But bitcoin will not die of course.

[Zohann]

It looks to me like the 7 week moving average is holding... We're gonna break through the 30 week moving average on strong volume after the auction.

Just my 2 bits

[DubFX]

It looks to me like the 7 week moving average is holding... We're gonna break through the 30 week moving average on strong volume after the auction.

Just my 2 bits

But there will be theoreticaly less demand as really big volume will be bought off goverment and not off the exchanges to boost the price.

[bananaControl]

It looks to me like the 7 week moving average is holding... We're gonna break through the 30 week moving average on strong volume after the auction.

Just my 2 bits

But there will be theoreticaly less demand as really big volume will be bought off goverment and not off the exchanges to boost the price.

Unless the actions winners are new to the game and will restore confidence in those already buying from the exchanges.

[Zohann]

It looks to me like the 7 week moving average is holding... We're gonna break through the 30 week moving average on strong volume after the auction.

Just my 2 bits

But there will be theoreticaly less demand as really big volume will be bought off goverment and not off the exchanges to boost the price.

Unless the actions winners are new to the game and will restore confidence in those already buying from the exchanges.

I believe that will happen... we'll see.  I believe that some of the coins will be sold above market price... and the price will be published.  This will put a floor under the market, and cause confidence in buying here.  I placed a bet on betmoose.com under username Zohann... my money is where my mouth is.

[Zohann]

Additionally.. I believe there's a ton of fiat moving to be ready to pounce after the auction... some of mine included. Time will tell... its gonna be fun to watch.

[bananaControl]

Fun indeed, I'm stocking up on popcorn as well as coins

[Biodom]

Additionally.. I believe there's a ton of fiat moving to be ready to pounce after the auction... some of mine included. Time will tell... its gonna be fun to watch.

AFTER? You don't know how Wall Street operates. They will pop the price 20-30% afterwards and you will be caught chasing it. Have you seen any decent IPO?

[fallinglantern]

btw when is the next halving?

Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-08-13 14:41:26 UTC (111 weeks, 5 days, 16 hours, 20 minutes)

(from bitcoinclock.com)

[Zohann]

Additionally.. I believe there's a ton of fiat moving to be ready to pounce after the auction... some of mine included. Time will tell... its gonna be fun to watch.

AFTER? You don't know how Wall Street operates. They will pop the price 20-30% afterwards and you will be caught chasing it. Have you seen any decent IPO?

Turning illiquid investments into fiat and funding an account takes time.  My account should be funded by tomorrow morning ... I hope! 

[elebit]

What would be the reason for bitcoin to plunge into the abyss? It survived Silk Road and gox, surely it won't collapse for no reason.

Interesting defintion of "plunge". It dropped $50 in a week. The week before that it gained $100.

Since a year ago we're up some 500%. If that's pluging into the abyss, I would be very interested in what other investments you keep?

[TERA]

What would be the reason for bitcoin to plunge into the abyss? It survived Silk Road and gox, surely it won't collapse for no reason.

Interesting defintion of "plunge". It dropped $50 in a week. The week before that it gained $100.

Since a year ago we're up some 500%. If that's pluging into the abyss, I would be very interested in what other investments you keep?

The top reason to drop right now would be traders selling out on a break of trend. There are a lot traders just front running the next 'scheduled 9 month bubble' which might not happen.