Xiaoxiao's trading/forecast blog

[T.Stuart]

I know what you mean, but what I meant was that all these crap coins sure makes bitcoin look good which is bullish, it is a sign people are into cryptos, but it may also cause inflation.

I think altcoins are all going south, to be honest. Spend a bit of time looking into the market and you will find a whole heap of disillusionment. It's the biggest feeling out there by far.

[Chef Ramsay]

I know what you mean, but what I meant was that all these crap coins sure makes bitcoin look good which is bullish, it is a sign people are into cryptos, but it may also cause inflation.

I think altcoins are all going south, to be honest. Spend a bit of time looking into the market and you will find a whole heap of disillusionment. It's the biggest feeling out there by far.

I don't know, most of them could be going south but Litecoin is showing some resiliency over the last few days. Plus, didn't Litecoin pull off something crazy during the last Bitcoin spike up?

[T.Stuart]

I know what you mean, but what I meant was that all these crap coins sure makes bitcoin look good which is bullish, it is a sign people are into cryptos, but it may also cause inflation.

I think altcoins are all going south, to be honest. Spend a bit of time looking into the market and you will find a whole heap of disillusionment. It's the biggest feeling out there by far.

I don't know, most of them could be going south but Litecoin is showing some resiliency over the last few days. Plus, didn't Litecoin pull off something crazy during the last Bitcoin spike up?

I think you should get back in the Kitchen Ramsay!  

Only joking, but please check out the Litecoin charts and dig up some news from the past couple of months. Litecoin is probably the biggest catastrophe out there at the moment in altcoinland.

EDIT: regarding the OP, I do not agree on the BTC prognosis. I think we are heading up after a few more days stable. By the end of the week.

[Erdogan]

Xiaoxiao: Are you based in china?

[Xiaoxiao]

Xiaoxiao: Are you based in china?

No sir.


This week's forecast:

550 - 700

Trades : none, 5th week in a row...

[Xiaoxiao]

This weeks forecast:

500-659

Trades: none, for last 2 months.

not logarithmic, but i could see something like this happening:

[Xiaoxiao]

After some deliberation: I've decided to short .7 btc's (leveraged to 2.5) at 581.  Stop loss is at 650.  A buy order set at 510.

[Xiaoxiao]

Just shorted another 1 btc (leveraged to 3) @ around 601.  I know I am taking a risk here, but it is these kinds of risks that has paid off.  Plus I have the emotional stability to handle a loss.

I remember when I went long for about 20 btc's in late Dec/ early Jan, when BTC took a dive from it's ATH, and then rebounded to 990.  @ about 960, I decided to go long for 20 btc's, and boy did that hit me right in the face when BTC took a dive.  But I didn't lose my cool and took a loss when it went below 900.  From there, I re-analyzed my positions and the market, and made it back fairly quickly.

[Raystonn]

Just shorted another 1 btc (leveraged to 3) @ around 601.  I know I am taking a risk here, but it is these kinds of risks that has paid off.  Plus I have the emotional stability to handle a loss.

I remember when I went long for about 20 btc's in late Dec/ early Jan, when BTC took a dive from it's ATH, and then rebounded to 990.  @ about 960, I decided to go long for 20 btc's, and boy did that hit me right in the face when BTC took a dive.  But I didn't lose my cool and took a loss when it went below 900.  From there, I re-analyzed my positions and the market, and made it back fairly quickly.

So what you're saying is your system makes profit when the market is in a medium-term trend, but has some problems when that trend direction changes?  Have you looked to address that?  Are you worried about the resumption of the long-term bull trend?

[Xiaoxiao]

Just shorted another 1 btc (leveraged to 3) @ around 601.  I know I am taking a risk here, but it is these kinds of risks that has paid off.  Plus I have the emotional stability to handle a loss.

I remember when I went long for about 20 btc's in late Dec/ early Jan, when BTC took a dive from it's ATH, and then rebounded to 990.  @ about 960, I decided to go long for 20 btc's, and boy did that hit me right in the face when BTC took a dive.  But I didn't lose my cool and took a loss when it went below 900.  From there, I re-analyzed my positions and the market, and made it back fairly quickly.

So what you're saying is your system makes profit when the market is in a medium-term trend, but has some problems when that trend direction changes?  Have you looked to address that?  Are you worried about the resumption of the long-term bull trend?

Believe me, I am monitoring these trades and keeping a close eye on the "long term bull trend".  I believe there has to be another mega dip in which the impatient people rids a load of coins before another bubble.

[Xiaoxiao]

Forecast for upcoming week (bitstamp price):  500-700.

Current trades:  Shorted about 4 coins @ 591.  Stop loss at 650.

[BitCoinNutJob]

Just shorted another 1 btc (leveraged to 3) @ around 601.  I know I am taking a risk here, but it is these kinds of risks that has paid off.  Plus I have the emotional stability to handle a loss.

I remember when I went long for about 20 btc's in late Dec/ early Jan, when BTC took a dive from it's ATH, and then rebounded to 990.  @ about 960, I decided to go long for 20 btc's, and boy did that hit me right in the face when BTC took a dive.  But I didn't lose my cool and took a loss when it went below 900.  From there, I re-analyzed my positions and the market, and made it back fairly quickly.

So what you're saying is your system makes profit when the market is in a medium-term trend, but has some problems when that trend direction changes?  Have you looked to address that?  Are you worried about the resumption of the long-term bull trend?

Believe me, I am monitoring these trades and keeping a close eye on the "long term bull trend".  I believe there has to be another mega dip in which the impatient people rids a load of coins before another bubble.

No mega dip happened when we went from $10 to $266, its a different pattern from 2013-2014

[Xiaoxiao]

What is your forecast for August ?

To be honest, I am contemplating shorting.  And the reason is because all this great news right now is a FRUITION of this past bubble, and a lot of inexperienced people are seeing it the other way around or seeing these new small good news to be causing a new bubble.  I'm still not sure what happened this last bubble, but it may have to do with some shady things going on with the chinese exchanges.  Market manipulation in China is unbelievable.

Wow this guy is spot on.

Mostly luck and a bit of research.

Next week's forecast 400-700, but more likely sub 600.

Trades: closed position (bought 4) @ 500.  Profit: $360.

[Xiaoxiao]

This weeks forecast 520-350...   Don't see it going any higher.

It seems as if the MTGOX incident, the china incidents, all created just a MEGA MEGA bubble in the last few years, and now reality hits.  Most pro traders and experienced commodity traders say this has mega bubble written all over it.

[Newbie1022]

This weeks forecast 520-350...   Don't see it going any higher.

It seems as if the MTGOX incident, the china incidents, all created just a MEGA MEGA bubble in the last few years, and now reality hits.  Most pro traders and experienced commodity traders say this has mega bubble written all over it.

You see it going up and not taking a further turn, though? Because, frankly, I think people would be thrilled with 520-530 inside the week.

[Xiaoxiao]

this week's fore cast--

Don't see it going above 520...

Could see it drop as low as 400.  

I think beginning late sept, early october... it will go into the next wave of down swing, which is the 450- 380 range.  Followed by a rebound to lower mid 400 - low 500 range... followed by another down swing to the lower 300 range.  And if that doesn't hold, it is dropping to the 100s

[Xiaoxiao]

Folks, since all my predictions in this thread has been right... here is my next prediction:

We are headed over a long stretch of 3-9 months down to about sub $200.  Perhaps as low as sub $100 in 6 months time.

Final capitulation (as falllling says) i believe is coming in 3-9 months

best case scenario:



This week however: 500-400

trades: none... waiting to short if it goes below 440.

[Newbie1022]

Folks, since all my predictions in this thread has been right... here is my next prediction:

We are headed over a long stretch of 3-9 months down to about sub $200.  Perhaps as low as sub $100 in 6 months time.

Final capitulation (as falllling says) i believe is coming in 3-9 months

best case scenario:



This week however: 500-400

trades: none... waiting to short if it goes below 440.

Smart not to trade, yet. There are a few events in the BTC world and the general economy that could lead to a fool's rally. I should learn this restraint. Anyhow, I think you are right... it is dead as a door nail (or, more appropriately, the price reflects what BTC would be worth if there was truly mass adoption as that is precisely what speculators were anticipating a year ago when they drove it up... well that and Willybot is dead).

[zakalwe]

Folks, since all my predictions in this thread has been right... here is my next prediction:

We are headed over a long stretch of 3-9 months down to about sub $200.  Perhaps as low as sub $100 in 6 months time.

Final capitulation (as falllling says) i believe is coming in 3-9 months

best case scenario:



This week however: 500-400

trades: none... waiting to short if it goes below 440.

You draw this triangle chart at your pleasure, man lol

no nay, you better study a bit more ....

[oda.krell]

[snip]

Final capitulation (as falllling says) i believe is coming in 3-9 months

You know that when you start quoting fallling unironically, you've probably crossed over into troll territory yourself. Whatever works for you. (Also, "sloppy" doesn't even begin to describe that triangle in white you've tacked onto your post to give some resemblance of TA to your ramblings.)