Xiaoxiao's trading/forecast blog

[Xiaoxiao]

6/22/14

Hello folks, I am an avid student of history and trader on the side.  I had supported myself via small stakes poker (3-14 tables) at times throughout my studies.  But currently poker is nearly dead.  So I will create a blog detailing my opinions and trades.

I like to trade creatively.  I am not necessarily a technical trader, as that will not work.  I normally follow a system but bitcoin is indeed different than the markets.

This last year has been very good for me.  Immediately after the silk road incident back in October I knew bitcoin was going to blow up and put a decent chunk of my savings into BTC/ltc, and after the new years, once again, I did quite well seeing the crash.  I used a combination of logic, news, and tech analysis.

Here is a screenshot of one of my accounts that I use to trade:



It has nearly 400 pages of transactions, so I do kind of know what I am doing.

Prediction for this week--

It seems that bitcoin is on the verge of breaking its downward trend, but what will induce another bubble?

Current: 601 @ bitstamp.

6/22/14 - 6/29

lo- 540

hi - 700

trades: none, it is pretty horizantal for now.

[1713952246]

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[1713952246]

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[1713952246]

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[1713952246]

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[zimmah]

Well, not much to predict right now as it's quite calm, but you look like a nice person and you might be a good trader, so it's interesting to see what this blog will bring in the future.

[DieJohnny]

6/22/14

Hello folks, I am an avid student of history and trader on the side.  I had supported myself via small stakes poker (3-14 tables) at times throughout my studies.  But currently poker is nearly dead.  So I will create a blog detailing my opinions and trades.

I like to trade creatively.  I am not necessarily a technical trader, as that will not work.  I normally follow a system but bitcoin is indeed different than the markets.

This last year has been very good for me.  Immediately after the silk road incident back in October I knew bitcoin was going to blow up and put a decent chunk of my savings into BTC/ltc, and after the new years, once again, I did quite well seeing the crash.  I used a combination of logic, news, and tech analysis.

Here is a screenshot of one of my accounts that I use to trade:



It has nearly 400 pages of transactions, so I do kind of know what I am doing.

Prediction for this week--

It seems that bitcoin is on the verge of breaking its downward trend, but what will induce another bubble?

Current: 601 @ bitstamp.

6/22/14 - 6/29

lo- 540

hi - 700

trades: none, it is pretty horizantal for now.

What are your thoughts on endless log growth charts on bitcoin that you see in this forum? Do you think we will stay in the log growth trend which is a boom every few months, or are we going to move out of that trend?

I am on the fence. I see tons and tons of incredibly favorable bitcoin news every single week, however, i don't see ANY adoption with neighbors and people. Yes geek adoption, but then only moderately.

[Xiaoxiao]

6/22/14

Hello folks, I am an avid student of history and trader on the side.  I had supported myself via small stakes poker (3-14 tables) at times throughout my studies.  But currently poker is nearly dead.  So I will create a blog detailing my opinions and trades.

I like to trade creatively.  I am not necessarily a technical trader, as that will not work.  I normally follow a system but bitcoin is indeed different than the markets.

This last year has been very good for me.  Immediately after the silk road incident back in October I knew bitcoin was going to blow up and put a decent chunk of my savings into BTC/ltc, and after the new years, once again, I did quite well seeing the crash.  I used a combination of logic, news, and tech analysis.

Here is a screenshot of one of my accounts that I use to trade:



It has nearly 400 pages of transactions, so I do kind of know what I am doing.

Prediction for this week--

It seems that bitcoin is on the verge of breaking its downward trend, but what will induce another bubble?

Current: 601 @ bitstamp.

6/22/14 - 6/29

lo- 540

hi - 700

trades: none, it is pretty horizantal for now.

What are your thoughts on endless log growth charts on bitcoin that you see in this forum? Do you think we will stay in the log growth trend which is a boom every few months, or are we going to move out of that trend?

I am on the fence. I see tons and tons of incredibly favorable bitcoin news every single week, however, i don't see ANY adoption with neighbors and people. Yes geek adoption, but then only moderately.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say it won't happen this time around.  I think those that have the capability of adopting btc already have, and the rest are either against or don't know yet.  The dilemna is that those who don't know about cryptos yet probably won't be adopting anytime soon or have the ability to adopt.

Like you said, geek adoption, but how many geeks out there don't already know about bitcoin?

[podyx]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say it won't happen this time around.  I think those that have the capability of adopting btc already have, and the rest are either against or don't know yet.  The dilemna is that those who don't know about cryptos yet probably won't be adopting anytime soon or have the ability to adopt.

Like you said, geek adoption, but how many geeks out there don't already know about bitcoin?

Did you predict that we would go to 1.2k in december when we were around $130 in september?

Or that we would go to 266 in april 2013 when the price was $10 in december 2012?

[Xiaoxiao]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say it won't happen this time around.  I think those that have the capability of adopting btc already have, and the rest are either against or don't know yet.  The dilemna is that those who don't know about cryptos yet probably won't be adopting anytime soon or have the ability to adopt.

Like you said, geek adoption, but how many geeks out there don't already know about bitcoin?

Did you predict that we would go to 1.2k in december when we were around $130 in september?

No, i thought it was going to hit 600-900 before another crash, didn't think it would hit 1200.

[podyx]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say it won't happen this time around.  I think those that have the capability of adopting btc already have, and the rest are either against or don't know yet.  The dilemna is that those who don't know about cryptos yet probably won't be adopting anytime soon or have the ability to adopt.

Like you said, geek adoption, but how many geeks out there don't already know about bitcoin?

Did you predict that we would go to 1.2k in december when we were around $130 in september?

No, i thought it was going to hit 600-900 before another crash, didn't think it would hit 1200.

Ok, hopefully you're wrong this time

Where do you think we'll be at in 3 months time however?

[zimmah]

hmm, so pretty cautious trader then.

not sure your trading style fits so well to bitcoin then, but let's see.

[seleme]

I'm not geek at all and I adopted Bitcoin 13 months ago

[gentlemand]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say it won't happen this time around.  I think those that have the capability of adopting btc already have, and the rest are either against or don't know yet.  The dilemna is that those who don't know about cryptos yet probably won't be adopting anytime soon or have the ability to adopt.

Like you said, geek adoption, but how many geeks out there don't already know about bitcoin?

So the tens of millions of infrastructure investment and the countless thousands of hours of legal dicking around creating ETFs, regulations and exchanges are all for nothing? Hmm...

[DieJohnny]

I'm not geek at all and I adopted Bitcoin 13 months ago

sounds like 13 months ago you became a geek

[Xiaoxiao]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say it won't happen this time around.  I think those that have the capability of adopting btc already have, and the rest are either against or don't know yet.  The dilemna is that those who don't know about cryptos yet probably won't be adopting anytime soon or have the ability to adopt.

Like you said, geek adoption, but how many geeks out there don't already know about bitcoin?

So the tens of millions of infrastructure investment and the countless thousands of hours of legal dicking around creating ETFs, regulations and exchanges are all for nothing? Hmm...

I meant for the short term next 3-6 months, and like I said, I am going out on a limb.  I was a former poker player, so I can take a loss with not much of a problem.  I think the next bubble would depend upon mass adoption.  With the state of bitcoin right now and its concerns, it is not fit for mass adoption at all. 

edit- but than again bubbles are a sign of its potential, so who knows.

[zimmah]

Mass adoption is at least 3 or 4 bubbles away

[DieJohnny]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say it won't happen this time around.  I think those that have the capability of adopting btc already have, and the rest are either against or don't know yet.  The dilemna is that those who don't know about cryptos yet probably won't be adopting anytime soon or have the ability to adopt.

Like you said, geek adoption, but how many geeks out there don't already know about bitcoin?

So the tens of millions of infrastructure investment and the countless thousands of hours of legal dicking around creating ETFs, regulations and exchanges are all for nothing? Hmm...

All very well could be for nothing, at least in the short term. Business is ahead of public adoption by a large margin.

Here is a test for you, the next 10 people you meet that don't have a life in technology, ask them when they plan to buy Bitcoin and why. My guess is you will go zero for 10. I would not be surprised if it is zero out of 100.

[Xiaoxiao]

6/28

this week's forecast-

same as last week.... horizantal... i definitely don't see much of a rise (maybe a bubble out of nowhere), if anything a drop and if it drops below the support, it could hit ATL since the double top at ~1150.

Trades- none, once again.

hi - could balloon to 900 since everyone is waiting for a bubble but so unlikely

low- more likely to hit a 400 low than 900 hi

but the most likely scenario is horizantal.

[BitcoinBobbeh]

6/28

this week's forecast-

same as last week.... horizantal... i definitely don't see much of a rise (maybe a bubble out of nowhere), if anything a drop and if it drops below the support, it could hit ATL since the double top at ~1150.

Trades- none, once again.

hi - could balloon to 900 since everyone is waiting for a bubble but so unlikely

low- more likely to hit a 400 low than 900 hi

but the most likely scenario is horizantal.

There used to be some really cool stick-figure animations named after you.

[zimmah]

Those were actually live action movies

however he grew up now and is looking for new challenges, currently one of these challenges is making profit at the bitcoin market.

Ontopic:

I agree with this weeks prediction. While i think a bubble is coming soon, i don't expect it to be this soon (as in next week).

[Xiaoxiao]

6/28

this week's forecast-

same as last week.... horizantal... i definitely don't see much of a rise (maybe a bubble out of nowhere), if anything a drop and if it drops below the support, it could hit ATL since the double top at ~1150.

Trades- none, once again.

hi - could balloon to 900 since everyone is waiting for a bubble but so unlikely

low- more likely to hit a 400 low than 900 hi

but the most likely scenario is horizantal.

There used to be some really cool stick-figure animations named after you.

I don't get it.  What do u mean?

[aminorex]

Mass adoption is at least 3 or 4 bubbles away

this, +1

[Newbie1022]

I didn't really think about this a few days ago and my trading position is the opposite of this scenario (since I am waiting for a transaction to clear -- I know, total fail), but I think we are going to hit a bottom next week -- either 540 or 400. The thought is pretty basic, I am starting to get the vibe that the bids were low, and orchestrated as such, on the auction. Since the bidders were leaked there was a greater possibility for collusion and because this is an unregulated market collusion could occur with legal ramification. Therefore, if the whales were smart then the winning price would be low -- about $400 -- because they know this would cause a panic to the point that the support at $540 would probably give way and then all of the whales could each swoop in and buy a significant portion of the market at a discount. Since OP is an online poker player -- I'd say this is the scenario where you are playing cards online and two of the players at your table are sitting in the same room and flashing each other their cards so that they can make a coordinated play on everybody else at the table. I should have been way more pessimistic in my thinking and now I am hung up waiting until Thursday for my transaction to clear.

In a nutshell, I am bullish in even the intermediate term and definitely the long-term so it isn't a big deal, but I really wish I could sell right now before the potential wave slides through so that I could pick up more coins at a discount... I think this might be the best idea for others. (Note, I could be terribly off base on this thought).