Bitcoin Forum
December 18, 2017, 03:50:11 PM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.15.1  [Torrent].
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: « 1 2 [3] 4 5 »  All
  Print  
Author Topic: Ross Ulbricht 140k bitcoins potential auction and market crash in future.  (Read 7224 times)
ArticMine
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2086


Monero Core Team


View Profile
June 26, 2014, 10:57:30 PM
 #41

Those 140k coins aren't going anywhere for a long time. They will tied up in the courts for years, and this case to say the least is very complex. To get an idea of just some of the issues here, take a look at the Free Ross Ulbricht site: http://freeross.org/ When some time in the future the court cases are finally resolved and the prevailing party decides to sell it is likely they will have an impact on the market. It is also possible this impact is bearish and significant. The trouble for a bear trying to play this is that the crash could be from say 1,200,000 USD per BTC to say 600,000 USD per BTC. So a bear selling at say 560 USD per BTC would be out of luck.

The wheels of justice move very slowly and provide ample time for the slaughter of many a bitbear.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1513612211
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1513612211

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1513612211
Reply with quote  #2

1513612211
Report to moderator
1513612211
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1513612211

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1513612211
Reply with quote  #2

1513612211
Report to moderator
heartbit
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 27


View Profile
June 27, 2014, 12:07:20 AM
 #42

SO WHY THE FUCK WOULD SOMEONE WITH THAT MUCH MONEY DUMP THOSE COINS AND LOSE TENS OF MILLIONS?

I hate to say this out loud - but I had this scary thought...

This would actually be a cheap investment for the banking system if they collectively thought that doing this was enough to kill bitcoin forever as a competitor.

Given current market volatility and liquidity depth, I imagine a large tranche of coins like this is more likely to sell at below market price than the 30K SR coins being auctioned in next few hours. A 50% discount to market would not be out of the question for 140K coin block.

But let's assume for arguments sake (and to keep my maths easy), that they fetch $500 each. So 140K coins would be $70M. Even at market ($600) it's only $84M worth of coins. A lot to you and I maybe, but a drop in the ocean to banks... after all they can simply create the money!

I can imagine a cartel of 10 or 20 large banks chipping in say $10M each, buying the 140K coins and then dumping them onto the market over a short few days or weeks to hammer the Bitcoin price down to $xx level or lower. Protect their monopoly on the banking system and write off any loss to minimise taxes - it's a win-win for the banks, isn't it?

I'm bullish on bitcoin and usually stay away from tinfoil-hat conspiracy theories - but this scares me...

There must be a hole or two in this thought bubble - anyone??
Posted from Bitcointa.lk - #joL4QKTu8VqQATxq
ABitNut
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 763


I'm a cynic, I'm a quaint


View Profile
June 27, 2014, 12:11:31 AM
 #43

SO WHY THE FUCK WOULD SOMEONE WITH THAT MUCH MONEY DUMP THOSE COINS AND LOSE TENS OF MILLIONS?

I hate to say this out loud - but I had this scary thought...

This would actually be a cheap investment for the banking system if they collectively thought that doing this was enough to kill bitcoin forever as a competitor.

Given current market volatility and liquidity depth, I imagine a large tranche of coins like this is more likely to sell at below market price than the 30K SR coins being auctioned in next few hours. A 50% discount to market would not be out of the question for 140K coin block.

But let's assume for arguments sake (and to keep my maths easy), that they fetch $500 each. So 140K coins would be $70M. Even at market ($600) it's only $84M worth of coins. A lot to you and I maybe, but a drop in the ocean to banks... after all they can simply create the money!

I can imagine a cartel of 10 or 20 large banks chipping in say $10M each, buying the 140K coins and then dumping them onto the market over a short few days or weeks to hammer the Bitcoin price down to $xx level or lower. Protect their monopoly on the banking system and write off any loss to minimise taxes - it's a win-win for the banks, isn't it?

I'm bullish on bitcoin and usually stay away from tinfoil-hat conspiracy theories - but this scares me...

There must be a hole or two in this thought bubble - anyone??
Posted from Bitcointa.lk - #joL4QKTu8VqQATxq

That would be just the banks pissing money away. Dropping 140K coins probably will make the price dip for a bit. But it will recover quickly. No one in their right mind would do that.


              ▄
            ▄███▄
          ▄███████▄
   ▄▄▄    █
█████████
   ███
    ███████████▄
██    ████    ████████▄
      ████    ██████████
  ████    ████▀██████████
  ████    ██▀   ▀█████████▄
      █████       █████████▄
      ███▀         ▀████████
  ██████▀           ▀███████
  █████▀             ▀█████
   ████ █▄▄▄     ▄▄▄█ ████
    ███ ▀███████████▀ ███
     ▀▀█▄ █████████ ▄█▀▀
        ▀▀▄▄ ▀▀▀ ▄▄▀▀
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
|●  facebook
●  reddit
●  ann thread
|
█ ██
█ ██ █
█ ██ █
█ ██ █
█ ██ █
█ ██ █
█ ██ █
█ ██ █
█ ██ █
█ ██ █
█ ██

██ █
█ ██ █
█ ██ █
█ ██ █
█ ██ █
█ ██ █
█ ██ █
█ ██ █
█ ██ █
█ ██ █
██ █
Raystonn
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 364


View Profile
June 27, 2014, 12:17:53 AM
 #44

The most efficient way for banks to deal with Bitcoin is to jump on board.  The big threat to banks is the use of Bitcoin as a payment system, not the use of Bitcoin as a store of value.  The only way to kill the former is to ensure massive volatility forever.  It's just not profitable to attempt this.
ArticMine
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2086


Monero Core Team


View Profile
June 27, 2014, 12:26:49 AM
 #45

SO WHY THE FUCK WOULD SOMEONE WITH THAT MUCH MONEY DUMP THOSE COINS AND LOSE TENS OF MILLIONS?

I hate to say this out loud - but I had this scary thought...

This would actually be a cheap investment for the banking system if they collectively thought that doing this was enough to kill bitcoin forever as a competitor.

Given current market volatility and liquidity depth, I imagine a large tranche of coins like this is more likely to sell at below market price than the 30K SR coins being auctioned in next few hours. A 50% discount to market would not be out of the question for 140K coin block.

But let's assume for arguments sake (and to keep my maths easy), that they fetch $500 each. So 140K coins would be $70M. Even at market ($600) it's only $84M worth of coins. A lot to you and I maybe, but a drop in the ocean to banks... after all they can simply create the money!

I can imagine a cartel of 10 or 20 large banks chipping in say $10M each, buying the 140K coins and then dumping them onto the market over a short few days or weeks to hammer the Bitcoin price down to $xx level or lower. Protect their monopoly on the banking system and write off any loss to minimise taxes - it's a win-win for the banks, isn't it?

I'm bullish on bitcoin and usually stay away from tinfoil-hat conspiracy theories - but this scares me...

There must be a hole or two in this thought bubble - anyone??
Posted from Bitcointa.lk - #joL4QKTu8VqQATxq

The flaw is that by the time the legal cases are sorted out the BTC/USD rate could very easily be way above 500 by a few orders of magnitude. I would suggest reading the defence submission here http://www.coindesk.com/ross-ulbricht-attorney-irs-guidance-motion-dismiss-charges/ first and the many complex legal issues it raises. If anyone is prepared to write a call option on BTC/USD with a strike price of 500 USD for the duration of this trail and any subsequent appeals I may be interested, provided of course sufficient collateral is provided.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
lay785
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 266


View Profile
June 28, 2014, 09:27:25 AM
 #46



So if 30k bitcoins from the current FBI auction of silk road coins has contributed to the bitcoin price crashing hard - if the FBI win their case and get to sell Ross Ulbricht's 140k bitcoin stash will the bitcoin price literally crash?

Thoughts people?

Anyone have any updates about Ross Ulbricht's case?

What are his prospects of success?

If his chances of success are slim then smart bitcoin traders should be aware that the market could potentially flash crash at any moment depending on the outcome/announcement by law enforcement. We now have a precedent that American law enforcement are eager to sell seized bitcoins and rake in the cash.

Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah.

Oh, sorry, are we having a serious discussion?
Sorry to mention the elephant in the room. Or have I broken the cult rule of the hodlers?

Coindesk has copied my post:

June 27, 2014
"In any case, the elephant in the room is the rest of the stash, the remaining 144,000 bitcoins seized from Silk Road."
http://www.coindesk.com/citi-examines-potential-impact-silk-road-auction-bitcoin-price/
mikerbiker6
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 392


View Profile
June 28, 2014, 01:02:23 PM
 #47

those coins will be sold off-exchange, so it has no price influence.

Participate and Earn on the Letstalkbitcoin forum letstalkbitcoin.com
negafen
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 218



View Profile WWW
June 29, 2014, 01:37:06 AM
 #48

those coins will be sold off-exchange, so it has no price influence.

If they are being used, they will eventually end up the the eco system and in the exchange.
molecular
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2436



View Profile
June 29, 2014, 10:46:50 AM
 #49

those coins will be sold off-exchange, so it has no price influence.

yes it does,.. indirectly and with latency, but it does: the off-exchange sale satisfies a demand that would otherwise be present (in some way) on the exchanges.

It's all connected.

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
davidgdg
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 528


View Profile
June 29, 2014, 12:56:07 PM
 #50

It is easy to work out.

The effect of these coins being stolen by the FBI was to temporarily reduce the effective total money supply. This is equivalent to deflation and would have generated an increase in the price (all things being equal). The effect of them being sold by the FBI is to increase the effective total money supply. This is equivalent to inflation and will generate a reduction in the price (all things being equal).

However, the effect should be minimal. 140k coins is  about 1% of the total supply, so all things being equal the price of BTC relative to dollars would fall by no more than 1%.  Of course short term effects due to panic, FUD etc (e.g. the OP) might be greater, but that has nothing to do with the fundamentals. 


"There is only one thing that is seriously morally wrong with the world, and that is politics. By 'politics' I mean all that, and only what, involves the State." Jan Lester "Escape from Leviathan"
mikerbiker6
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 392


View Profile
June 29, 2014, 05:25:53 PM
 #51

those coins will be sold off-exchange, so it has no price influence.

yes it does,.. indirectly and with latency, but it does: the off-exchange sale satisfies a demand that would otherwise be present (in some way) on the exchanges.

It's all connected.

Ah, you are right.

Participate and Earn on the Letstalkbitcoin forum letstalkbitcoin.com
CEG5952
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 658

Buy and sell bitcoins,


View Profile
June 29, 2014, 06:10:28 PM
 #52

This all depends on how much demand there is off-exchange, which is always difficult to gauge. But it does seem that Barry Silbert, Pantera, some others have been loading up. Whale accumulation style. And Circle gonna need a lot of coins....

ajareselde
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1638

Satoshi is rolling in his grave. #bitcoin


View Profile
June 29, 2014, 11:26:28 PM
 #53

Noone can predict the future in that case, whales can do as they please, but its important to observe the market and try to figure out where the pressure is aplied, and with what reason.
That way it is not important will the market price go up or down, you will allways have your share.
hodap
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 155


View Profile
June 30, 2014, 12:36:24 AM
 #54

those coins will be sold off-exchange, so it has no price influence.

Coin being sold off have influence on market regardless of where they are being sold off.
smoothie
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2072


LEALANA Monero Physical Silver Coins


View Profile
June 30, 2014, 12:37:46 AM
 #55

those coins will be sold off-exchange, so it has no price influence.

Coin being sold off have influence on market regardless of where they are being sold off.

The person buying the coins could then sell them on an exchange but the initial transaction from the government to the buyer will not affect prices directly but rather indirectly if there is news/rumors/etc.

███████████████████████████████████████

            ,╓p@@███████@╗╖,           
        ,p████████████████████N,       
      d█████████████████████████b     
    d██████████████████████████████æ   
  ,████²█████████████████████████████, 
 ,█████  ╙████████████████████╨  █████y
 ██████    `████████████████`    ██████
║██████       Ñ███████████`      ███████
███████         ╩██████Ñ         ███████
███████    ▐▄     ²██╩     a▌    ███████
╢██████    ▐▓█▄          ▄█▓▌    ███████
 ██████    ▐▓▓▓▓▌,     ▄█▓▓▓▌    ██████─
           ▐▓▓▓▓▓▓█,,▄▓▓▓▓▓▓▌          
           ▐▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▌          
    ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓─  
     ²▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓╩    
        ▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀       
           ²▀▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀▀`          
                   ²²²                 
███████████████████████████████████████

. ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM        My PGP fingerprint is A764D833.        SMOOTHIE'S HEALTH AND FITNESS JOURNAL          History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ .
LEALANA  PHYSICAL MONERO COINS 999 FINE SILVER.
 
ArticMine
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2086


Monero Core Team


View Profile
June 30, 2014, 02:42:54 AM
 #56

... but how can one use this to trade now, not 2 years, 5 years, etc. down the road when these court cases eventually get settled?

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
boumalo
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1232


View Profile
July 06, 2014, 01:43:04 PM
 #57

... but how can one use this to trade now, not 2 years, 5 years, etc. down the road when these court cases eventually get settled?

The 144,000BTC will be auctioned if the FBI wins the civil trial and it may be bought up by someone who wouldn't have bought that many bitcoins on the market

In addition it has been priced in already

segeln
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 560


View Profile
July 06, 2014, 03:43:11 PM
 #58

Those 140k coins aren't going anywhere for a long time. They will tied up in the courts for years, and this case to say the least is very complex. To get an idea of just some of the issues here, take a look at the Free Ross Ulbricht site: http://freeross.org/ When some time in the future the court cases are finally resolved and the prevailing party decides to sell it is likely they will have an impact on the market. It is also possible this impact is bearish and significant. The trouble for a bear trying to play this is that the crash could be from say 1,200,000 USD per BTC to say 600,000 USD per BTC. So a bear selling at say 560 USD per BTC would be out of luck.

The wheels of justice move very slowly and provide ample time for the slaughter of many a bitbear.
exactly,it will take years to auction These Coins.
since they were auctioned off-exchanges like the recent ones,they will not effect the market.
Let alone the spot Price will be much higher than now,as we all suppose
Let`s talk about Ross`s bitcoins in a few years
painlord2k
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 450


View Profile
July 06, 2014, 10:14:02 PM
 #59

exactly,it will take years to auction These Coins.
since they were auctioned off-exchanges like the recent ones,they will not effect the market.
Let alone the spot Price will be much higher than now,as we all suppose
Let`s talk about Ross`s bitcoins in a few years

If we are lucky, the US Marshal will not need to sell them by the time Ross's bitcoin ownership is sorted out.
They will just use them to buy stuff needed by the government, or could be used to pay back some of the Federal Gov. debt.
segeln
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 560


View Profile
July 06, 2014, 10:25:43 PM
 #60


If we are lucky, the US Marshal will not need to sell them by the time Ross's bitcoin ownership is sorted out.

but this will take time.Won`t happen in a few months.
Pages: « 1 2 [3] 4 5 »  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!