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Author Topic: Date for 25 BTC per Block  (Read 33307 times)
Stephen Gornick
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October 20, 2012, 06:24:25 AM
 #121

11/30/2012

Yup, that target date ... still Nov 30th (Friday), but early in the day (UTC), so even a small increase will cause it to land early, like on the 29th (Thursday)

 - http://bitcoinclock.com/

So if there are any halving day events ... for party planning it is looking like it perhaps might occur Wednesday in the U.S., Thursday in Europe / Asia.

There still are some wildcards though ... GPU miners could start liquidating in larger numbers soon, trying to get a jump on others who will mine until the is no question that GPU mining's days are oover.  This loss of hashing capacity could push the date later, maybe to December again.   Or a first run for some ASICs could pull us ahead by several days, like to the 25th or earlier.

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zoinky
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October 20, 2012, 07:27:45 PM
 #122

I think that the ASIC thing is kind of unfortunately timed. I would have liked to have seen what would happen if there was no transition in technology at the time. What if the halving occurred and mining was only at a 10% profit margin, suddenly putting everyone in the red by 40%? How would the market react? How would the miners react? But the conditions here are actually a little uninteresting. The price/bitcoin is so high that even a halving will keep GPUs slightly profitable, while ASICs start to roll out and will get acquired to fit into the limits of the 25 btc reward. This "First Halvings Day" will be relatively without any drama. I don't think it will give an accurate picture of what will happen when we go from 25->12.5.
It's as if the market knew the halving was coming?  Shocked
Stephen Gornick
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October 30, 2012, 06:23:40 AM
 #123

There still are some wildcards though ... GPU miners could start liquidating in larger numbers soon,

A few are.  There isn't a rush to the exits though, from what I can tell.

This loss of hashing capacity could push the date later, maybe to December again.

Thirty days left, target currently shows early in the day on the 29th.  For it to drop to December there would have to be a pretty big drop. 

Or a first run for some ASICs could pull us ahead by several days, like to the 25th or earlier.

It looks like halving will occur before any BFLs arrive in anyone's hands.   Maybe the early shipment to the testers, but even if they ship that last week of November, that's nothing that would cut short the adjustment period much more than a day or two.

So, in western hemisphere timezones, this could come as quickly as Tuesday the 27th or in Asian timezones it could still end up occurring late Thursday the 29th (barring any unexpected swings in the hash rate).

This is a week after Thanksgiving, so that won't interfere.

Who'll be the first to book a table for the first ever halving celebration?

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October 31, 2012, 02:01:23 PM
 #124

It's as if the market knew the halving was coming?  Shocked

No, it's not like that at all. The market didn't see the halving coming and thus create ASICs to ensure it was frictionless. Second Halvings Day will be a lot more interesting because we will see if people are forced to drop out, or if the reduction in inflation will keep all miners profitable. In this case, we won't see much because some miners who can afford it are switching to a technology that is 40x better.
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October 31, 2012, 02:51:33 PM
 #125

In this case, we won't see much because some miners who can afford it are switching to a technology that is 40x better.

Which may also happen on Second Halvings Day and Third Halvings Day, etc. My feeling is that subsequent Halvings Days will become a lot more boring. This first one will be the most turbulent.

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November 05, 2012, 12:27:04 AM
 #126

"remember, remember, the 5th of November."

Okay

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November 06, 2012, 10:17:24 PM
 #127

It's as if the market knew the halving was coming?  Shocked

No, it's not like that at all. The market didn't see the halving coming and thus create ASICs to ensure it was frictionless. Second Halvings Day will be a lot more interesting because we will see if people are forced to drop out, or if the reduction in inflation will keep all miners profitable. In this case, we won't see much because some miners who can afford it are switching to a technology that is 40x better.

The market definitely knew the halving was coming, that much is known ... what it did about it is less known.

I'd say it is safe to say that design/build/test pipeline for ASIC's, which has been well over a year in the making, had an eye on the halving date as a loose milestone target date ... how could they not have? The "market" is a reflection of the decisions and thoughts of many individuals ...

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November 07, 2012, 06:02:16 PM
 #128

As difficulty goes up (more than 6 blocks found per hour), the estimated time for halving approaches more rapidly. Using bitcoinclock.com , it's fairly easy to see that the halving will occur between 1800 hours 11/27/2012 and 0600 11/28/2012 with current 'block finding trends'. ASICs entering the market would have a serious effect on this, however.
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November 08, 2012, 12:57:21 AM
 #129

As difficulty goes up (more than 6 blocks found per hour), the estimated time for halving approaches more rapidly. Using bitcoinclock.com , it's fairly easy to see that the halving will occur between 1800 hours 11/27/2012 and 0600 11/28/2012 with current 'block finding trends'. ASICs entering the market would have a serious effect on this, however.

at this point its up to the ASIC developers. they could be the sole decider of this bet.

they at most will only be testing their hardware before the halve now and they could throw in a lot of machines to test if they have them ready before the ~ nov 26 calculation and then take the hardware off after difficulty increases and thus less blocks be made everywhere but first scare off people to sell their hardware and no longer mine

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November 14, 2012, 08:27:35 PM
 #130

2052, OMG it is actually going to happen.

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November 14, 2012, 08:35:21 PM
 #131

2052, OMG it is actually going to happen.

shudder

where's the best btc block halve countdown clocks?

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November 14, 2012, 09:05:25 PM
 #132

Only bitcoinclock.com comes to mind.

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payb.tc
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November 14, 2012, 11:10:46 PM
 #133

Only bitcoinclock.com comes to mind.

i know the countdown's styling is still ugly, but i'm happy to share my code:

Code:
<?php

        $blockcount
=file_get_contents('http://blockexplorer.com/q/getblockcount');

        
$remaining_time = (210000 - ($blockcount 210000)) * 600;

        
$date_estimate date('Y-m-d H:i:s'time() + $remaining_time);

        
$r_seconds $remaining_time 60;
        
$time = ($remaining_time $r_seconds) / 60;

        
$r_minutes $time 60;
        
$time = ($time $r_minutes) / 60;

        
$r_hours $time 24;
        
$time = ($time $r_hours) / 24;

        
$r_days $time 7;
        
$time = ($time $r_days) / 7;

        
$r_weeks $time;

        
$r_parts = array();

        if (
$r_weeks 0$r_parts[] = ($r_weeks == 1) ? '<b>' $r_weeks .'</b> week' '<b>' $r_weeks .'</b> weeks';
        if (
$r_days 0$r_parts[] = ($r_days == 1) ? '<b>' $r_days .'</b> day' '<b>' $r_days .'</b> days';
        if (
$r_hours 0$r_parts[] = ($r_hours == 1) ? '<b>' $r_hours .'</b> hour' '<b>' $r_hours .'</b> hours';
        if (
$r_minutes 0$r_parts[] = ($r_minutes == 1) ? '<b>' $r_minutes .'</b> minute' '<b>' $r_minutes .'</b> minutes';

        
$r_str implode(', '$r_parts);
?>


Code:
<p><strong>Reward-Drop ETA:</strong> <?php echo $date_estimate?> (<?php echo $r_str?>)</p>

the code is ugly too, but it works Cheesy
ryann
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November 15, 2012, 07:14:40 PM
 #134

Isnt it rather simple? If a block is found every 10 mins and we only have currently around 1900 blocks left until reward drop. That would mean 316 hours left before the drop happens which is about 13 days.
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November 15, 2012, 07:18:02 PM
 #135

Isnt it rather simple? If a block is found every 10 mins and we only have currently around 1900 blocks left until reward drop. That would mean 316 hours left before the drop happens which is about 13 days.

i wanna know the minute it's set to halve

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Stephen Gornick
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November 15, 2012, 07:46:36 PM
 #136

i wanna know the minute it's set to halve

Well that's probably more determined more by luck now than anything.  It is looking like either sometime on the 29th (GMT) or possibly late in the day (again, GMT) on the 28th.   

So it is getting pretty safe to say that if you were to attend an all-day "halving day" party on Wednesday, Nov 28th, 2012 in the U.S., you would be present to raise your glass for a toast at the point that block 210,000 is solved.

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November 15, 2012, 08:07:30 PM
 #137

http://serason.com/projects/emccharts/countdown.php

REWARD HALVE COUNTDOWN

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helloworld
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November 16, 2012, 01:33:35 AM
 #138

Isnt it rather simple? If a block is found every 10 mins and we only have currently around 1900 blocks left until reward drop. That would mean 316 hours left before the drop happens which is about 13 days.

Yeah, duh, that's pretty much what it says on bitcoinclock.com.

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November 16, 2012, 12:32:54 PM
 #139

Isnt it rather simple? If a block is found every 10 mins and we only have currently around 1900 blocks left until reward drop. That would mean 316 hours left before the drop happens which is about 13 days.

i wanna know the minute it's set to halve

haha, you will know only after the fact. It's kinda like with radioactive decay: you never know exactly when shit happens and you can only make probabilistic assertions over periods of time.

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November 16, 2012, 12:38:20 PM
 #140

Isnt it rather simple? If a block is found every 10 mins and we only have currently around 1900 blocks left until reward drop. That would mean 316 hours left before the drop happens which is about 13 days.

i wanna know the minute it's set to halve

haha, you will know only after the fact. It's kinda like with radioactive decay: you never know exactly when shit happens and you can only make probabilistic assertions over periods of time.

Hopefully probabilistic uncertainty is the only common property of reward dropping and radioactive decay.  Grin

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