Date for 25 BTC per Block

[runeks]

I prefer the psychic approach.

[Stephen Gornick]

I would consider it being before 9th of december according to my calculations.

You know what happens in the future?

No, I just know some basic maths.

Heh, your statement is fine but doesn't say that it is based on the assumption that hashing between now and then occurs at the "one block every 10 minutes" rate, which is an unknown.

[swissmate]

Well, I made a date approach like a month ago and took in mind hashing power,difficulty increase, quantity of blocks solved, typical deviaton ( I think it's called so in english) of total miners per week, Moore's law and some other factors.

What I obtained was a date closer than 9th of November

[Stephen Gornick]

Chart showing how many days per block.



Charted from this data:
 - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmcTCtjBoRWUdHVRMHpqWUJValI1RlZiaEtCT1RrQmc

Running from the current block and estimating the target of one block every 10 minutes, means there are a little over 183 days to go.  That puts the date for block 210,000 to early morning on December 9th.

The wager on Bets of Bitcoin agrees (nearly 3:1) that it will not be after December 9th:
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=312

[Stephen Gornick]

Latest update:

Running from the current block and estimating the target of one block every 10 minutes, means there are a little over 163 days to go.  That puts the date for block 210,000 to late in the day on December 7th.

The wager on Bets of Bitcoin agrees (nearly 3:1) that it will not be after December 9th:
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=312

[Quantus]

So who is hosting The very first Bitcoin Block party? 

[dirtycat]

Latest update:

Running from the current block and estimating the target of one block every 10 minutes, means there are a little over 163 days to go.  That puts the date for block 210,000 to late in the day on December 7th.

The wager on Bets of Bitcoin agrees (nearly 3:1) that it will not be after December 9th:
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=312

IF all these mega tera ultra super mining coffee warming kitchen appliances come out prior to the block split wont these things make the split happen a LOT sooner?

[Stephen Gornick]

IF all these mega tera ultra super mining coffee warming kitchen appliances come out prior to the block split wont these things make the split happen a LOT sooner?

Not necessarily.  It difficulty were to shoot up one time, and then drop by that same amount the next, then it would actually cause the date to be pushed back.  Here's an explanation:

I think it's pretty safe to say that if you think the price per coin is going to stay the same or rise then we'll see the date before December 9th, 2012 for sure.

Let's say the difficulty in December is up over 15% from here.

But to get there from here saw a 10% rise in the next adjustment, then a 8% drop in the one after, over and over for the next 14 adjustments remaining before block 210,000.

Even with the difficuly increasing, the date for 210,000 would be pushed later, past December 9th even I believe.  That is because the faster hashing burns through the calendar days on the way up and does not more than offset the death march that occurs on the calendar when trying to get to the next adjustment when hashing is below the difficulty level.

So it isn't just a question of will the difficulty be higher, but will it be volatile from one adjustment period to the next (on net, pushing the date further back), or will it be an even steady increase along the way ( pulling the date to be earlier ).

[dirtycat]

IF all these mega tera ultra super mining coffee warming kitchen appliances come out prior to the block split wont these things make the split happen a LOT sooner?

Not necessarily.  It it were to shoot up one time, and then drop by that same amount the next, then it would actually cause the date to be pushed back.  Here's an explanation:

I think it's pretty safe to say that if you think the price per coin is going to stay the same or rise then we'll see the date before December 9th, 2012 for sure.

Let's say the difficulty in December is up over 15% from here.

But to get there from here saw a 10% rise in the next adjustment, then a 8% drop in the one after, over and over for the next 14 adjustments remaining before block 210,000.

Even with the difficuly increasing, the date for 210,000 would be pushed later, past December 9th even I believe.  That is because the faster hashing burns through the calendar days on the way up and does not more than offset the death march that occurs on the calendar when trying to get to the next adjustment when hashing is below the difficulty level.

So it isn't just a question of will the difficulty be higher, but will it be volatile from one adjustment period to the next (on net, pushing the date further back), or will it be an even steady increase along the way ( pulling the date to be earlier ).

ahh.. interesting

[mystery2048]

Approximate 5 months left until the block reward halfs, get ready people!

[molecular]

Approximate 5 months left until the block reward halfs, get ready people!

Get ready for what?

[bulanula]

Approximate 5 months left until the block reward halfs, get ready people!

Get ready for what?

$10 price. Or shall we call it $12 actually ?

[molecular]

Approximate 5 months left until the block reward halfs, get ready people!

Get ready for what?

$10 price. Or shall we call it $12 actually ?

so mystery2048 is actually saying "BUY BUY BUY"?

imo it's already factored in by the markets. Is there a bet about a price jump when reward drops around?

[Stephen Gornick]

Latest update:

Running from the current block and estimating the target of one block every 10 minutes, means there are a little over 150 days to go.  That puts the date for block 210,000 to early in the day on December 7th.

The wager on Bets of Bitcoin agrees (more than 3:1) that it will not be after December 9th:
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=312

[Atheros]

If ASIC mining comes online before then, that date could easily move up clear into November.

[Stephen Gornick]

Latest update:



Charted from this data:
 - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmcTCtjBoRWUdHVRMHpqWUJValI1RlZiaEtCT1RrQmc

The last update took about 13 days and two hours, versus the 14 days it would have taken if blocks were being solved at the rate of exactly one per ten minutes.

Running from the current block and estimating the target of one block every 10 minutes, means there are a little over 141 days to go.  That puts the date for block 210,000 to late in the day on December 6th.

The wager on Bets of Bitcoin agrees that it will not be after December 9th but it is at less than a 3:1 ratio:
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=312

Mining profitability is really high right now:
 - http://www.blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin

So I suspect we'll continue to see an increasing difficulty, and if done so gradually as has occurred for these last few, ... the date for block 210,000 arrives even sooner.

[Stephen Gornick]

So I suspect we'll continue to see an increasing difficulty, and if done so gradually as has occurred for these last few, ... the date for block 210,000 arrives even sooner.

110 days left at 10 minutes per block.  That moves the date to the early hours of December 4th, 2012.

[Stephen Gornick]

110 days left at 10 minutes per block.  That moves the date to the early hours of December 4th, 2012.

December 3rd now.    If it continues increasing, even to a lesser degree than we've been seeing recently, Block 210,000 will end up occurring in November.

 - http://bitcoinclock.com

[FreeMoney]

Let's hear it for November! woohoo!

Anybody throwing parties?

[Atheros]

Let's hear it for November! woohoo!

Anybody throwing parties?

I would schedule one but we don't know when the next-era block will be found. Planning a party is hard when you don't know when the event will occur. I bet in 2016, we'll know with much more certainty when it will occur as the date approaches.