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Author Topic: Date for 25 BTC per Block  (Read 33289 times)
Stephen Gornick
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August 30, 2012, 01:55:32 AM
 #81

December 3rd now.    If it continues increasing, even to a lesser degree than we've been seeing recently, Block 210,000 will end up occurring in November.

 - http://bitcoinclock.com

Incidentally, the difficulty will adjust at block 209,664, about two days before the block reward adjustment occurs at 210,000, so even if a bunch of GPU miners drop out immediately, the difficulty will stay higher for the remaining 1,680 blocks -- possibly extending that difficulty adjustment period out several additional days (adding a little insult to the 25 BTC per block injury.)

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FreeMoney
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August 30, 2012, 02:33:15 AM
 #82

Let's hear it for November! woohoo!

Anybody throwing parties?

I would schedule one but we don't know when the next-era block will be found. Planning a party is hard when you don't know when the event will occur. I bet in 2016, we'll know with much more certainty when it will occur as the date approaches.

Seals is gunna have a huge party, I don't care when it happens :-)

We should know day and rough time of day about a week out I'd think.

Agree, will be steadier next time, but probably always a bit turbulent timing afterwards.

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August 30, 2012, 02:33:55 AM
 #83

December 3rd now.    If it continues increasing, even to a lesser degree than we've been seeing recently, Block 210,000 will end up occurring in November.

 - http://bitcoinclock.com

Incidentally, the difficulty will adjust at block 209,664, about two days before the block reward adjustment occurs at 210,000, so even if a bunch of GPU miners drop out immediately, the difficulty will stay higher for the remaining 1,680 blocks -- possibly extending that difficulty adjustment period out several additional days (adding a little insult to the 25 BTC per block injury.)

Gunna be some looooow supply around the holidays.

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August 30, 2012, 03:20:52 AM
 #84

Is it a coincidence that the halving date is close to the end of the world date? I don't think so Cheesy

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August 30, 2012, 03:30:36 AM
 #85

Is it a coincidence that the halving date is close to the end of the world date? I don't think so Cheesy

I'm tempted to bet on December 21st 2012 as the date the first block of 25 is generated.  Isn't there a site somewhere that we can make that sort of bet?

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August 30, 2012, 03:31:42 AM
 #86

Is it a coincidence that the halving date is close to the end of the world date? I don't think so Cheesy

The Myans were actually just counting down the to the first subsidy cut.  The meaning of their calender just got lost in history.
Stephen Gornick
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August 30, 2012, 05:47:03 AM
 #87

I'm tempted to bet on December 21st 2012 as the date the first block of 25 is generated.  Isn't there a site somewhere that we can make that sort of bet?

You'ld lose choosing that late of a date though.  The range of likelihood is now between late November and early December.

 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=312




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August 30, 2012, 11:52:57 AM
 #88

Is it a coincidence that the halving date is close to the end of the world date? I don't think so Cheesy

The Myans were actually just counting down the to the first subsidy cut.  The meaning of their calender just got lost in history.

lol, from that date on, you only have to make half the sacrifices to the gods Wink

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Stephen Gornick
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August 30, 2012, 04:49:38 PM
 #89

Seals is gunna have a huge party, I don't care when it happens :-)

The even needs a name.  "Block reward adjustment day" doesn't necessarily roll off the tongue.

Some might refer to it as their GPU retirement day ..  Grin


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August 30, 2012, 04:58:22 PM
 #90

Seals is gunna have a huge party, I don't care when it happens :-)

The even needs a name.  "Block reward adjustment day" doesn't necessarily roll off the tongue.

Some might refer to it as their GPU retirement day ..  Grin



How about "Market Day" since we'll all be DDOSing mtgox to try and figure out what the market is doing that day.

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August 30, 2012, 05:32:31 PM
 #91

If we get an ASIC release, and it's looking likely at least one of them may drop, we might be looking at something prior to Thanksgiving, even.

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August 30, 2012, 05:37:08 PM
 #92

If we get an ASIC release, and it's looking likely at least one of them may drop, we might be looking at something prior to Thanksgiving, even.

Whatever day it is we should all start a google video conference and get drunk.

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August 31, 2012, 07:40:32 PM
 #93

Maya have predicted with great accuracy:

21 dec 2012 

Grin
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August 31, 2012, 07:55:55 PM
 #94

If we get an ASIC release, and it's looking likely at least one of them may drop, we might be looking at something prior to Thanksgiving, even.

Whatever day it is we should all start a google video conference and get drunk.

I like this guys idea Cheesy

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molecular
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August 31, 2012, 09:09:32 PM
 #95

If we get an ASIC release, and it's looking likely at least one of them may drop, we might be looking at something prior to Thanksgiving, even.

Whatever day it is we should all start a google video conference and get drunk.

I like this guys idea Cheesy

Shouldn't we be getting stuff from silkroad instead?

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August 31, 2012, 10:03:14 PM
 #96

If we get an ASIC release, and it's looking likely at least one of them may drop, we might be looking at something prior to Thanksgiving, even.

Whatever day it is we should all start a google video conference and get drunk.

I like this guys idea Cheesy

Shouldn't we be getting stuff from silkroad instead?

Let's all drop acid as we watch the price skyrocket.

molecular
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August 31, 2012, 10:11:04 PM
 #97

If we get an ASIC release, and it's looking likely at least one of them may drop, we might be looking at something prior to Thanksgiving, even.

Whatever day it is we should all start a google video conference and get drunk.

I like this guys idea Cheesy

Shouldn't we be getting stuff from silkroad instead?

Let's all drop acid as we watch the price skyrocket.


fuck yeah. It will go down in the history books as the "night of the crypto-hippies".

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Stephen Gornick
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September 07, 2012, 01:12:16 AM
 #98

December 3rd now.    If it continues increasing, even to a lesser degree than we've been seeing recently, Block 210,000 will end up occurring in November.

 - http://bitcoinclock.com

December 2nd!

86 days left.

The "two week" adjustment cycles are arriving in 12.5 days, 12.7 days at this pace of growth:



 - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmcTCtjBoRWUdHVRMHpqWUJValI1RlZiaEtCT1RrQmc

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September 07, 2012, 11:25:14 AM
 #99

I don't know where to post this, so here it is :

are there any concerns about something like Y2K syndrome ?

are miners supposed to change something in their code ?

will the number of btc per block be the only thing that will change ?
molecular
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September 07, 2012, 02:07:17 PM
 #100

I don't know where to post this, so here it is :

are there any concerns about something like Y2K syndrome ?

are miners supposed to change something in their code ?

will the number of btc per block be the only thing that will change ?

Everything is taken care of already by Satoshi. It's in the rules. A block with number > 210,000 giving a coinbase transaction of greater than 25 BTC will be invalid and rejected by honest miners. Afaik that's all that will change (it will not really change, the rule has been there all the time, just didn't take effect because block numbers have been < 210,000 so far.

There might theoretically be a bug, but I'm sure a lot of devs and others have checked.

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