Who believes in $10,000 a coin?

[maker88]

I feel that $10,000 a coin is Bitcoin's destiny easily. Given the amount of growth and maturity that comes along with it and the limited supply of Bitcoins in circulation, its only a matter of time when $10,000/BTC will be the new $100/BTC.

Chime in!

A 100-fold increase is easily possible with Wall Street jumping in.

We don't even need Wall Street to reach 10,000

We will most likely reach it next year, with or without Wall Street.

We are not hitting 10k anytime soon, if ever.  Bitcoin will be replaced by another currency, should the technology continue to move forward.

unlikely

[vuduchyld]

I want to believe too, but I find it hard to believe that we will pass something like $5,000 per coin.   Trust me, I would love to be wrong, and pass $10,000.   I just logically don't see it...

I think mathematically we would need to be much higher than current prices if BTC is going to truly become a competitor to a Visa or Mastercard, I just don't know where the top would be...

Well, here's the math for the 5-figure bull-case: http://www.honestnode.com/bitcoin-fair-value-a-first-assessment/

...Our analysis determines that one bitcoin must be worth $27381 in order to support 10% of common medium-of-exchange economic activity, plus well under 10% of existing common store-of-value demand.

I would love to support this, but in my opinion, there were at least couple of problems with the article:

1)  Bitcoin as 10% of the remittance market is nothing short of wild speculation.  It seems unlikely.
2)  I believe the author has miscalculated velocity.  He's looking at, I believe, things like mining transactions and including them in velocity calcs.  This would be akin to counting the printing press moment as a velocity event, but I do not think USD velocity calcs work that way.
3)  I believe that the M2 calculation is actually the appropriate one to make--which I don't typically see, so I really like that he's working with M2 as a fundamental building block to determine value.  But I think it's pegged in a very arbitrary fashion in this article.
4)  I'm having a hard time understanding why these elements he identifies would all be additive.  Take the M2 calculation, for example.  It's probably a good measure.  But the uses he identifies and ADDS to the M2 value determinant are really just part and parcel of M2. 

That said, I'm open to being told why I'm wrong.  I'm an MBA and I do a lot of microecon work, but I don't have as much exposure to macro. 

[lay785]

I feel that $10,000 a coin is Bitcoin's destiny easily. Given the amount of growth and maturity that comes along with it and the limited supply of Bitcoins in circulation, its only a matter of time when $10,000/BTC will be the new $100/BTC.

Chime in!

A 100-fold increase is easily possible with Wall Street jumping in.

We don't even need Wall Street to reach 10,000

We will most likely reach it next year, with or without Wall Street.

We are not hitting 10k anytime soon, if ever.  Bitcoin will be replaced by another currency, should the technology continue to move forward.

unlikely

I think this will be Impossible until the FBI auctions off their 140k coins.

Investors are not stupid enough to invest money into bitcoins at this point knowing that the FBI has 140k coins that they will auction off - the auction will of course cause the price to fall considerably.

The only real use of coins at this point is if you need to open an exchange with them or have some other use like the silk road coin winner did (I think he was opening an exchange with the coins he won/ exchange arbitrage or something) - but investors who want to simply hold coins will simply wait for the 140k auction  and buy cheaply when the price crashes - at that point the market can start rising again - depending on who bought the coins (steady hands vs weak ones who will dump when price rises) and other factors.

[Syke]

I think this will be Impossible until the FBI auctions off their 140k coins.

Investors are not stupid enough to invest money into bitcoins at this point knowing that the FBI has 140k coins that they will auction off - the auction will of course cause the price to fall considerably.

The only real use of coins at this point is if you need to open an exchange with them or have some other use like the silk road coin winner did (I think he was opening an exchange with the coins he won/ exchange arbitrage or something) - but investors who want to simply hold coins will simply wait for the 140k auction  and buy cheaply when the price crashes - at that point the market can start rising again - depending on who bought the coins (steady hands vs weak ones who will dump when price rises) and other factors.

The marshals just completed a 30k auction, and if anything, the price went up. It sure didn't crash.

[lay785]

I think this will be Impossible until the FBI auctions off their 140k coins.

Investors are not stupid enough to invest money into bitcoins at this point knowing that the FBI has 140k coins that they will auction off - the auction will of course cause the price to fall considerably.

The only real use of coins at this point is if you need to open an exchange with them or have some other use like the silk road coin winner did (I think he was opening an exchange with the coins he won/ exchange arbitrage or something) - but investors who want to simply hold coins will simply wait for the 140k auction  and buy cheaply when the price crashes - at that point the market can start rising again - depending on who bought the coins (steady hands vs weak ones who will dump when price rises) and other factors.

The marshals just completed a 30k auction, and if anything, the price went up. It sure didn't crash.

Yes
A) because it was only 30k - not nearly as much as 140k
B) As I noted the guy was not an investor but was trying to open an exchange and be involved in exchange arbitrage.

140k will definitely crash the price. Theres a reason why only 1 guy won all the coins - he needed them for something besides just investing - all the other buyers offered much less than he did - this tells you that for the 140k unless there is an exception like with the 30k auction - the bidders will lowball offers for the coins = prices go down.

[okthen]

It's impossible without regulation and secure and reliable exchanges.

Major investors will never put money through shady exchanges without a trusted third party.

That's coming soon.
Now that the US Mint guy tweeted that he bought bitcoin, more will follow

I believe in 10K a coin soonish (say 2015).

[Equate]

It's impossible without regulation and secure and reliable exchanges.

Major investors will never put money through shady exchanges without a trusted third party.

That's coming soon.
Now that the US Mint guy tweeted that he bought bitcoin, more will follow

I believe in 10K a coin soonish (say 2015).

10k is possible but I think unlikely  by 2015 , may be 2017-18.

[Paashaas]

I think this will be Impossible until the FBI auctions off their 140k coins.

Investors are not stupid enough to invest money into bitcoins at this point knowing that the FBI has 140k coins that they will auction off - the auction will of course cause the price to fall considerably.

The only real use of coins at this point is if you need to open an exchange with them or have some other use like the silk road coin winner did (I think he was opening an exchange with the coins he won/ exchange arbitrage or something) - but investors who want to simply hold coins will simply wait for the 140k auction  and buy cheaply when the price crashes - at that point the market can start rising again - depending on who bought the coins (steady hands vs weak ones who will dump when price rises) and other factors.

The marshals just completed a 30k auction, and if anything, the price went up. It sure didn't crash.

Yes
A) because it was only 30k - not nearly as much as 140k
B) As I noted the guy was not an investor but was trying to open an exchange and be involved in exchange arbitrage.

140k will definitely crash the price. Theres a reason why only 1 guy won all the coins - he needed them for something besides just investing - all the other buyers offered much less than he did - this tells you that for the 140k unless there is an exception like with the 30k auction - the bidders will lowball offers for the coins = prices go down.

Wrong, the FBI wont sell all the coins at one time, why do you think they sell 30k first. Cant you think by youre self, this is pure logical. Typical straightforeward tunnelvision.

Bitcoin will reach 10k within 2 years, its just 2-3 bullruns.

[Taras]

I think this will be Impossible until the FBI auctions off their 140k coins.

Investors are not stupid enough to invest money into bitcoins at this point knowing that the FBI has 140k coins that they will auction off - the auction will of course cause the price to fall considerably.

The only real use of coins at this point is if you need to open an exchange with them or have some other use like the silk road coin winner did (I think he was opening an exchange with the coins he won/ exchange arbitrage or something) - but investors who want to simply hold coins will simply wait for the 140k auction  and buy cheaply when the price crashes - at that point the market can start rising again - depending on who bought the coins (steady hands vs weak ones who will dump when price rises) and other factors.

The marshals just completed a 30k auction, and if anything, the price went up. It sure didn't crash.

Yes
A) because it was only 30k - not nearly as much as 140k
B) As I noted the guy was not an investor but was trying to open an exchange and be involved in exchange arbitrage.

140k will definitely crash the price. Theres a reason why only 1 guy won all the coins - he needed them for something besides just investing - all the other buyers offered much less than he did - this tells you that for the 140k unless there is an exception like with the 30k auction - the bidders will lowball offers for the coins = prices go down.

Wrong, the FBI wont sell all the coins at one time, why do you think they sell 30k first. Cant you think by youre self, this is pure logical. Typical straightforeward tunnelvision.

Bitcoin will reach 10k within 2 years, its just 2-3 bullruns.

The FBI's coins were in two batches, one of 30k (SR) and one of 140k (DPR).
Ross Ulbricht is fighting for the 140k, which is the sole reason they weren't also sold at the marshall's auction with the 30k.

I also think bitcoin will reach five figures soon. I know we have the potential.

[maker88]

I feel that $10,000 a coin is Bitcoin's destiny easily. Given the amount of growth and maturity that comes along with it and the limited supply of Bitcoins in circulation, its only a matter of time when $10,000/BTC will be the new $100/BTC.

Chime in!

A 100-fold increase is easily possible with Wall Street jumping in.

We don't even need Wall Street to reach 10,000

We will most likely reach it next year, with or without Wall Street.

We are not hitting 10k anytime soon, if ever.  Bitcoin will be replaced by another currency, should the technology continue to move forward.

unlikely

I think this will be Impossible until the FBI auctions off their 140k coins.

Investors are not stupid enough to invest money into bitcoins at this point knowing that the FBI has 140k coins that they will auction off - the auction will of course cause the price to fall considerably.

The only real use of coins at this point is if you need to open an exchange with them or have some other use like the silk road coin winner did (I think he was opening an exchange with the coins he won/ exchange arbitrage or something) - but investors who want to simply hold coins will simply wait for the 140k auction  and buy cheaply when the price crashes - at that point the market can start rising again - depending on who bought the coins (steady hands vs weak ones who will dump when price rises) and other factors.

still with the auction panic talk? i thought you guys would realize now that auctions don't crash the price.

[giveBTCpls]

Well, of course I didn't though Bitcoin could go to 1000 dollar 2 years ago... I didn't even fathom that as a remote posibility. So there, yeah it can happen, technically it could go to 1 million dollars, this is a good thread by rpiet:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=400235.0

Of course, the question is when. It may take ages, we'll be old and crippled by then 
Also, a lot, a lot of people will lose a lot of money in the way, because there will be crashes, panic buys and panic sells, it's going to be an insane road of ups and downs, that is the only thing I know for granted lol.

[giveBTCpls]

I feel that $10,000 a coin is Bitcoin's destiny easily. Given the amount of growth and maturity that comes along with it and the limited supply of Bitcoins in circulation, its only a matter of time when $10,000/BTC will be the new $100/BTC.

Chime in!

A 100-fold increase is easily possible with Wall Street jumping in.

We don't even need Wall Street to reach 10,000

We will most likely reach it next year, with or without Wall Street.

We are not hitting 10k anytime soon, if ever.  Bitcoin will be replaced by another currency, should the technology continue to move forward.

unlikely

I think this will be Impossible until the FBI auctions off their 140k coins.

Investors are not stupid enough to invest money into bitcoins at this point knowing that the FBI has 140k coins that they will auction off - the auction will of course cause the price to fall considerably.

The only real use of coins at this point is if you need to open an exchange with them or have some other use like the silk road coin winner did (I think he was opening an exchange with the coins he won/ exchange arbitrage or something) - but investors who want to simply hold coins will simply wait for the 140k auction  and buy cheaply when the price crashes - at that point the market can start rising again - depending on who bought the coins (steady hands vs weak ones who will dump when price rises) and other factors.

We should look at the big chinese panic selling event when the chinese gov announced banning Bitcoin in several places. What amount of coins were sold during that period of time? How much would the price fall with a 140K coin sellout? Also, would they sell all at once, or a periodical sellout?

[giveBTCpls]

We are not hitting 10k anytime soon, if ever.  Bitcoin will be replaced by another currency, should the technology continue to move forward.

That Sir, is the only thing which will take Bitcoin down...if any other competing digital currency gets ahead of Bitcoin. Especially if some government decides to toss one out~

no one will adopt it, it will fail, end of story.

we are moving AWAY from fiat, not towards it.

you all just afraid of big numbers, but



these 8 people are the owners of companies that total a networth of 1 trillion

that's 128 times the value of all currently mined bitcoins combined. And they're just 8 people....

Walmart has a networth of 486 billion or so (over 60 times the value of all bitcoins currently mined), and that's just 1 single company)

the gold market is worth 7 trillion dollars, about a 1000 times more than the bitcoin market, and really, does not bitcoin offer much more utility than gold? It's basically gold 2.0

and don't even get me started on real estate bubbles etc.

Bitcoin will grow to a multi-trillion dollar industry, mark my words.

What most people argue about the 2.0 gold argument is that Bitcoin hasn't got any intrinsic value, that is, may the network fall or may there would be a mad max type scenareo... who would take Bitcoin as something as value anymore? While gold is a material thing that can be used in real life. That's the typical old school investor type of guy that I get when I try to explain Bitcoin to them. They are somewhat right tho, but in any case, in a mad max type scenareo, I maintain that the guy with the bigger guns and most food resources is who runs the place. I don't expect any niceness on such scenareo, like people doing trades and shit. I hope we never get to such a place and we all become Bitcoin millonaires, that is if I ever get to reunite enough money to but 1 BTC first

[ajareselde]

I feel that $10,000 a coin is Bitcoin's destiny easily. Given the amount of growth and maturity that comes along with it and the limited supply of Bitcoins in circulation, its only a matter of time when $10,000/BTC will be the new $100/BTC.

Chime in!

I would like to believe it, but i dont.
When you think just about how much fiat is needed to keep the price in 10k USD range each day; thats something that banks would block definetly.
Even at the stage we are in currently, its hard to operate due to banks closing bitcoin related accounts, then just imagine the fuss if u multiply that by 10x-20x.

In a "best case scenario" , where the banks and that 1% population would have it in their interest for bitcoin to be at that value, then, and only then can 1 bitcoin be worth 10k $.

Cheers

[DavidHume]

10k is possible after the etf is listed on stock exchange.

[giveBTCpls]

I feel that $10,000 a coin is Bitcoin's destiny easily. Given the amount of growth and maturity that comes along with it and the limited supply of Bitcoins in circulation, its only a matter of time when $10,000/BTC will be the new $100/BTC.

Chime in!

I would like to believe it, but i dont.
When you think just about how much fiat is needed to keep the price in 10k USD range each day; thats something that banks would block definetly.
Even at the stage we are in currently, its hard to operate due to banks closing bitcoin related accounts, then just imagine the fuss if u multiply that by 10x-20x.

In a "best case scenario" , where the banks and that 1% population would have it in their interest for bitcoin to be at that value, then, and only then can 1 bitcoin be worth 10k $.

Cheers

Yeah, it seems withdrawing Bitcoin can be a pain in the ass. I know stories of accounts geting frozen by local banks when they try to withdraw. But then again, we have Bitcoin ATM. And as far as I know, you don't need any bank account or anything, you go to your nearest Bitcoin ATM with your paper wallet and withdraw your shit. What scares me is someone robbing you while you are withdrawing or something, since there isn't videovigilance or anything I think, like on banks.

[Ibian]

I feel that $10,000 a coin is Bitcoin's destiny easily. Given the amount of growth and maturity that comes along with it and the limited supply of Bitcoins in circulation, its only a matter of time when $10,000/BTC will be the new $100/BTC.

Chime in!

I would like to believe it, but i dont.
When you think just about how much fiat is needed to keep the price in 10k USD range each day; thats something that banks would block definetly.
Even at the stage we are in currently, its hard to operate due to banks closing bitcoin related accounts, then just imagine the fuss if u multiply that by 10x-20x.

In a "best case scenario" , where the banks and that 1% population would have it in their interest for bitcoin to be at that value, then, and only then can 1 bitcoin be worth 10k $.

Cheers

Yeah, it seems withdrawing Bitcoin can be a pain in the ass. I know stories of accounts geting frozen by local banks when they try to withdraw. But then again, we have Bitcoin ATM. And as far as I know, you don't need any bank account or anything, you go to your nearest Bitcoin ATM with your paper wallet and withdraw your shit. What scares me is someone robbing you while you are withdrawing or something, since there isn't videovigilance or anything I think, like on banks.

The solution to that is simple. Don't be a limp dick. I have always used cash, kept it in my pocket, and I decided long ago that if someone could take it from me they deserved to keep it. As a result, I have never been robbed or pickpocketed.

Alternatively, bring a dozen friends whenever you go to get some money out.

Anyway, in-person trading on a large scale is the answer to banks getting in the way. Just a matter of how bad people want it.

[DumDumz]

10k was possible before China decided to ban it. And merchants in China was preparing for mass adaptation.

What would happen if China makes bitcoin be illegal.
may be bad for the survival of the miners.

[sumantso]

I believe in $10k BTC easily, but the main question is when. If it is within the next 2 years then great, otherwise it will be overtaken by some other crypto tech.

[Paashaas]

I believe in $10k BTC easily, but the main question is when. If it is within the next 2 years then great, otherwise it will be overtaken by some other crypto tech.

Bitcoin will not be replaced within 2 years....lol, lets roll out Bitcoin first ok? ore the new crypto needs to kill Lightcoin first and i dont see that happening in the comming 5 years.

If it goes to $10k it will go to $100k, we'are all early adopters.