Bitcoin difficulty may actually go down in ~7 days!

[kendog77]

The current average time between blocks was 10.1 minutes over the last two days. If this keeps up, it will result in the difficulty going down for the first time in ~18 months!

New hardware is still being manufactured, so I expect the block solve time to increase over the next few days and result in a small difficulty increase, but it's nice to get a bit of relief from the ~25% increase we just had!

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

[-ck]

Bitcoinwisdom that you linked yourself is still estimating +15%. Don't be fooled by day to day variance.

[philipma1957]

Bitcoinwisdom that you linked yourself is still estimating +15%. Don't be fooled by day to day variance.

true  right now it is a lot of guess work….. using times between blocks days in advance is meh.


besides a builder like bitmaintech    could have 200,000 s-3's built and ready to ship right now.

  So while it looks like diff jumps may be low it is more because they hold back the gear.

[kendog77]

Bitcoinwisdom that you linked yourself is still estimating +15%. Don't be fooled by day to day variance.

The block generation time quoted on bitcoinwisdom is the average of the last 504 blocks, and it shows a 10.1 minute block generation time.

Also, in the bitcoinwisdom chart, you can clearly see the 504 block and 1008 block generation times sliding below the current difficulty.

I still expect the difficulty to go up this adjustment, but bet it will be a smallish increase of ~5%.

The bitcoinwisdom estimate of +15% is trending down. Two days ago, the estimate was +25%.

[RoadStress]

Bitcoinwisdom that you linked yourself is still estimating +15%. Don't be fooled by day to day variance.

true  right now it is a lot of guess work….. using times between blocks days in advance is meh.


besides a builder like bitmaintech    could have 200,000 s-3's built and ready to ship right now.

  So while it looks like diff jumps may be low it is more because they hold back the gear.

I hope my math is wrong but 200k S3s would mean 100PH/s which is simply absurd. It would require 10-20M$ AT LEAST just to build them so your number is WAY out of line... Just like AM who was dreaming of selling 60PH worth of chips in 1-2 months.

I still expect the difficulty to go up this adjustment, but bet it will be a smallish increase of ~5%.

5% seems a bit too low. My guess is around 10%. Exciting times.

[kjs]

I hope my math is wrong but 200k S3s would mean 100PH/s which is simply absurd. It would require 10-20M$ AT LEAST just to build them so your number is WAY out of line... Just like AM who was dreaming of selling 60PH worth of chips in 1-2 months.

20,000 units maybe, so ~10 PH.

[RoadStress]

I hope my math is wrong but 200k S3s would mean 100PH/s which is simply absurd. It would require 10-20M$ AT LEAST just to build them so your number is WAY out of line... Just like AM who was dreaming of selling 60PH worth of chips in 1-2 months.

20,000 units maybe, so ~10 PH.

The original quote states 200k units. That's two hundred thousand.

[kendog77]

The time between blocks is still trending down, and we now sit at a 10.2 minute block time.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

I suspect the 25% last difficulty change was caused by a combination of an incredible amount of hardware being added to the network combined with a lucky streak, and now luck has taken a turn for the worse.

[skuser]

read this:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=619438.0

according to that article it is statistically possible that difficulty adjustment has been overshoot and it fact the latest diff change should have been a bit lower.

[taipo]

The OP might be right on this one, a potential drop coming up at least on this round.

[iglasses]

This is a wet dream for people (myself included) who bought S3's that we hopefully (bitmaintech??) will be getting July 12-14

Maybe if nothing else it will slow the flood of 'why the fuck did you buy an S3 that will never ever ever in a million years' ROI...lol

I guess we can hope. At least for another ten days.

[taipo]

Then following that will be the S3 storm once they are shipped and put online, then the Spondooley storm the next month.

So probably should consider this to be the proverbial lull?

[DrG]

The acceleration of block tends to occur in the last 3-4 days of each cycle when new stuff gets delivered and people hurry to get it online before the next switchover.  I skipped work just to get my BFL SC Single online earlier last year earning me an extra 0.6BTC

As those Neptunes and S3s go online (again muahhahaha) the jump should go higher.  Of course bad luck all around might skew that.

[navigator]

The acceleration of block tends to occur in the last 3-4 days of each cycle when new stuff gets delivered and people hurry to get it online before the next switchover.  I skipped work just to get my BFL SC Single online earlier last year earning me an extra 0.6BTC

As those Neptunes and S3s go online (again muahhahaha) the jump should go higher.  Of course bad luck all around might skew that.

All those neptunes and s3's wont make the network go up higher. You can't add hashrate twice. That's what the recent jump was about. When they sell them and they get turned back on the hashrate doesnt go up again. It's already been factored in.
This chart says otherwise about the acceleration occuring during the last few days of a cycle. Also shows how we are still on track for a 0% increase this cycle.

[Glizlack]

This is interesting. I have been thinking and posting a bit about my feelings that the difficulty will not keep skyrocketing. My feelings are some of the new hash rate is canceled out by old equipment going offline. I also thought the last increase was super high but not being an expert by a long ways I just kept watching. And if the next increase is very small or even slightly negative that would tend to prove the theory of the last increase was shall we say a perfect storm.

Steve

[taipo]

All those neptunes and s3's wont make the network go up higher. You can't add hashrate twice. That's what the recent jump was about. When they sell them and they get turned back on the hashrate doesnt go up again. It's already been factored in.

Which I think is the point being made. The assumption is that the drop occurs during the period in which the new miners are being packed, shipped and installed on the customer end. If that is true the its a false drop and very very temporal.

[philipma1957]

All those neptunes and s3's wont make the network go up higher. You can't add hashrate twice. That's what the recent jump was about. When they sell them and they get turned back on the hashrate doesnt go up again. It's already been factored in.

Which I think is the point being made. The assumption is that the drop occurs during the period in which the new miners are being packed, shipped and installed on the customer end. If that is true the its a false drop and very very temporal.

It will be for 10-12 days or 1 adjustment .  most likely  it will be a 4-6% jump not a drop

[norgan]

Ok so the main function of mining is to sign transactions right? So if time between blocks is ten minutes and people doing BTC transactions are expecting those transactions to happen almost instantly the we need either more hashing power or a drop in diff immediately? (or both)

Am I seeing this right? I've seen m's pool monitor predict a drop for the last few days as well, not sure what that is based off though.

[philipma1957]

Ok so the main function of mining is to sign transactions right? So if time between blocks is ten minutes and people doing BTC transactions are expecting those transactions to happen almost instantly the we need either more hashing power or a drop in diff immediately? (or both)

Am I seeing this right? I've seen m's pool monitor predict a drop for the last few days as well, not sure what that is based off though.

his math is based on current block making speed.  

   if blocks are 10 minutes about  +- 1 %

 if blocks are 9  minutes apart    +- 10%

 if blocks are 8 minutes apart   +- 20%


very rough math.

I will give you a second thing to keep in mined diff jump avg from jan 2013 to now = 23%  avg per jump    

But diff jump avg from Dec 2013 to now about 18% avg per jump

Also  I link you to this one:

http://bitcoincharts.com/

  Diff now 16818461371
  Diff est   16669791571


this one:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty now:         16,818,461,371

Estimated Next Difficulty:   18,380,239,968



I take                 Diff est:   16,669,791,571

Estimated Next Difficulty:   18,380,239,968


Total--------------------      35,050,031,539  /  2 =   17,525,015,769.5  diff   which is 4.2 percent jump


    Now about 14-15  hours later using the  same method  I get  a 3.6 percent jump

[iglasses]

Hashrate starting to rise...blocks back down to 10.1

I think it's unrealistic to expect anything under 18.6 next round.