... Moore's Law does appear to be reaching an end. ....
Heard the same thing in late 1980's. It is more likely that there will be a shift to other approaches, like stacking many layers or something else. Still that that doesn't mean it will be a few guys in a bar figuring out how to do it.
I was on my 3rd PC in the late 80s and I never heard such a thing. I did hear that they would have problems with the clocks because of possible interference with other electronics - turned out that didn't happen
The basic transistor gate design has to change (ie 3D) but even that only has so much it can go. The concept of a switch or gate has to change. Graphene or something like that which we haven't used yet.
3rd PC by the late 80's, you started a later them me. I was on my third computer before 1980.
The talk about Moore's law in the late 80's was mostly around hard disk density and capacity at the time. I was working as a Hardware/Software engineer designing sub-systems used in oscilloscopes. You may have been too young to follow the trade journals at that time. There wasn't many stories in the popular press as computers weren't mainstream. Anyway at the time a typical hard disk was measured in MB. A few GB drive was a monster and very expensive and was physically very large.
Currently there is a great deal of research on how to improve ICs and we are long ways from the end of improvements, however that might not be true for reducing sizes of transistors. Also much of the new stuff will take years to work its way out to smaller companies unless they are buying general CPU's etc. I know for example that stacking layers of transistors has been in the works for at least 5 years, probably more, but so far I haven't actually seen it.
EDIT: In the late 80's there was a general feeling that solid state storage (i.e. flash) would easily replace hard disks within 10 years. Still hasn't happen, although we are getting closer to the cross over. In 1995 I wrote a driver for storing information on flash, then the 28F010's Intel, 1 Mb each, wow that was really hard and there was like a 90 second cycle where if you lost power you lost your flash contents. Things have come a long ways since then. I know a ton about pre-2000 technology but after about 2000 I've mostly done pure software.
My electrical skills are getting rusty and I don't read the journals much now. Kids take up too much time.
