Will the GAW VAULTBREAKER Be profitable?

[brian_23452]

And how can i calculate the difficulty rise over time? Is there a consistent average?

The average rate of return for a given hashrate has been dropping at a fairly consistent 2% per day for the past 5 months .  Basically, to get a really rough estimate of what it will be when you take delivery, look at your rate of return today.  Then cut that number in half for every month you have to wait before delivery.  This is ignoring costs for electricity.

In the case of the GAW miner which I believe is now slated for 750MH/s for 8000 dollars, you would need to be taking delivery in the first half of August to have a realistic chance of mining as much as the unit costs.  

Interesting. is there More profitable option? Different algo? Im running a 25mh/s 750 ti x11 rig right now, obviously not big profits on my rig.

It is a scrypt miner.  That means it mines scrypt, not x11.  So no.

Edited to add, if there were a more profitable algo it could mine, everyone would mine that and in a few short hours, a day or two at most, it wouldn't be more profitable anymore.  I don't think you really understand how this whole mining thing works.  I strongly suggest you do some more research before spending thousands of dollars on equipment. 

[DrSnAzZy]

And how can i calculate the difficulty rise over time? Is there a consistent average?

The average rate of return for a given hashrate has been dropping at a fairly consistent 2% per day for the past 5 months .  Basically, to get a really rough estimate of what it will be when you take delivery, look at your rate of return today.  Then cut that number in half for every month you have to wait before delivery.  This is ignoring costs for electricity.

In the case of the GAW miner which I believe is now slated for 750MH/s for 8000 dollars, you would need to be taking delivery in the first half of August to have a realistic chance of mining as much as the unit costs.  

Interesting. is there More profitable option? Different algo? Im running a 25mh/s 750 ti x11 rig right now, obviously not big profits on my rig.

It is a scrypt miner.  That means it mines scrypt, not x11.  So no.

Edited to add, if there were a more profitable algo it could mine, everyone would mine that and in a few short hours, a day or two at most, it wouldn't be more profitable anymore.  I don't think you really understand how this whole mining thing works.  I strongly suggest you do some more research before spending thousands of dollars on equipment. 

i do understand im asking for in the future. Obviously scrypt is going to be loaded with MH/s when those miners come out. I get that. I know asic are 1 algo chips. Time for me to do some math with more graphics cards. Or other asics

[s1gs3gv]

Looks like all VaultBreakers just got upgraded to 750 mhs.

https://hashtrader.com/t/vault-breaker-update/2388

[DrSnAzZy]

Looks like all VaultBreakers just got upgraded to 750 mhs.

https://hashtrader.com/t/vault-breaker-update/2388

I see that but from my math that doesnt help much on the profitability side. 2% fall in profit every day is quite a bit.

[EvilPanda]

If you're interested in Vaultbreakers go to http://www.bringbackroi.com/
It's now the official site dedicated to this project.

[DrSnAzZy]

If you're interested in Vaultbreakers go to http://www.bringbackroi.com/
It's now the official site dedicated to this project.

Im still interested in one but there is no way to even guarantee ill get my ROI

[EvilPanda]

If you're interested in Vaultbreakers go to http://www.bringbackroi.com/
It's now the official site dedicated to this project.

Im still interested in one but there is no way to even guarantee ill get my ROI

It's an investment. If you buy LTC or Doge now there's no guarantee you will profit, but with the recent upgrade Vaultbreakers offer the best $/hash on the market (almost 2 times more than KNC Titan for the same price). I also know GAW is working on a way to guarantee ROI, it's called Project Prime and has been in development for over 2 months, I hope they will reveal some more details soon.

[DrSnAzZy]

If you're interested in Vaultbreakers go to http://www.bringbackroi.com/
It's now the official site dedicated to this project.

Im still interested in one but there is no way to even guarantee ill get my ROI

It's an investment. If you buy LTC or Doge now there's no guarantee you will profit, but with the recent upgrade Vaultbreakers offer the best $/hash on the market (almost 2 times more than KNC Titan for the same price). I also know GAW is working on a way to guarantee ROI, it's called Project Prime and has been in development for over 2 months, I hope they will reveal some more details soon.

Where does gaw post their updates to the public? Like i said new to ASIC Any and all info is much appreciated. Thanks everyone for the advice.

[Equate]

If you're interested in Vaultbreakers go to http://www.bringbackroi.com/
It's now the official site dedicated to this project.

Im still interested in one but there is no way to even guarantee ill get my ROI

It's an investment. If you buy LTC or Doge now there's no guarantee you will profit, but with the recent upgrade Vaultbreakers offer the best $/hash on the market (almost 2 times more than KNC Titan for the same price). I also know GAW is working on a way to guarantee ROI, it's called Project Prime and has been in development for over 2 months, I hope they will reveal some more details soon.

If buying ltc/doge does not guarantee profit , then how would mining the same coins for 3-5 months will make you profit. If LTC rises up , then whatever amount you buy today, in future you would make profit. And if LTC price drops , then ROI from Asic will take even much longer time and profitability is distant dream . So mining profitability is related to LTC price and difficulty and don't mislead the OP .

[EvilPanda]

Where does gaw post their updates to the public? Like i said new to ASIC Any and all info is much appreciated. Thanks everyone for the advice.

On their official forum http://hashtrader.com

If you're interested in Vaultbreakers go to http://www.bringbackroi.com/
It's now the official site dedicated to this project.

Im still interested in one but there is no way to even guarantee ill get my ROI

It's an investment. If you buy LTC or Doge now there's no guarantee you will profit, but with the recent upgrade Vaultbreakers offer the best $/hash on the market (almost 2 times more than KNC Titan for the same price). I also know GAW is working on a way to guarantee ROI, it's called Project Prime and has been in development for over 2 months, I hope they will reveal some more details soon.

If buying ltc/doge does not guarantee profit , then how would mining the same coins for 3-5 months will make you profit. If LTC rises up , then whatever amount you buy today, in future you would make profit. And if LTC price drops , then ROI from Asic will take even much longer time and profitability is distant dream . So mining profitability is related to LTC price and difficulty and don't mislead the OP .

I never said profitability doesn't depend on the price. If you mine coins and the price stays the same you will profit. If you buy& hold and the price stays the same you won't profit.
If the price drops you will lose money anyway - that's why this is an investment and nobody can guarantee profit no matter if you choose mining or holding coins. There's no misleading here

[Equate]

 If you mine coins and the price stays the same you will profit.

You forgot the difficulty factor ? ,  which is increasing at faster pace day by day for scrypt , so If you mine coins and the price stays the same you won't profit.

[EvilPanda]

 If you mine coins and the price stays the same you will profit.

You forgot the difficulty factor ? ,  which is increasing at faster pace day by day for scrypt , so If you mine coins and the price stays the same you won't profit.

There are many factors e.g. some people pay 3 times  more for electricity than others, while some have it for free, but you have profitability calculators for that.

When I bought USB miners in May last year most people were saying they won't ROI, but others still bought them and profited.

[Equate]

 If you mine coins and the price stays the same you will profit.

You forgot the difficulty factor ? ,  which is increasing at faster pace day by day for scrypt , so If you mine coins and the price stays the same you won't profit.

There are many factors e.g. some people pay 3 times  more for electricity than others, while some have it for free, but you have profitability calculators for that.

When I bought USB miners in May last year most people were saying they won't ROI, but others still bought them and profited.

Yes , and that's the point I am making , investment in ASIC  doesn't guarantee profit as much as buying LTC. I am not against Asics but current monopoly of manufacturers ensures they are the one reaping most of the profit  . Anyways if someone believes in LTC , he can buy them directly.

[brian_23452]

Where does gaw post their updates to the public? Like i said new to ASIC Any and all info is much appreciated. Thanks everyone for the advice.

On their official forum http://hashtrader.com

If you're interested in Vaultbreakers go to http://www.bringbackroi.com/
It's now the official site dedicated to this project.

Im still interested in one but there is no way to even guarantee ill get my ROI

It's an investment. If you buy LTC or Doge now there's no guarantee you will profit, but with the recent upgrade Vaultbreakers offer the best $/hash on the market (almost 2 times more than KNC Titan for the same price). I also know GAW is working on a way to guarantee ROI, it's called Project Prime and has been in development for over 2 months, I hope they will reveal some more details soon.

If buying ltc/doge does not guarantee profit , then how would mining the same coins for 3-5 months will make you profit. If LTC rises up , then whatever amount you buy today, in future you would make profit. And if LTC price drops , then ROI from Asic will take even much longer time and profitability is distant dream . So mining profitability is related to LTC price and difficulty and don't mislead the OP .

I never said profitability doesn't depend on the price. If you mine coins and the price stays the same you will profit. If you buy& hold and the price stays the same you won't profit.
If the price drops you will lose money anyway - that's why this is an investment and nobody can guarantee profit no matter if you choose mining or holding coins. There's no misleading here

You are introducing exchange rates to intentionally obfuscate the issue, most likely because you are invested in the GAW devices (i.e., company shill) and you know that.  
This device costs a certain amount of BTC.  This is a fact.  This device will mine a certain amount of coins, which are convertible to BTC.  This is also a fact.  If the device will mine less coins than it costs to purchase, it is poor financial decision to purchase it.  That is also a fact.  Last fact, the device costs 12.7BTC
The only real question of note is, will it generate more coins than it costs to purchase, or will it generate less coins than it costs to purchase?
Here is an interesting little chart which illustrates what I said earlier about the 2% drop.  It shows the average rate of return of 1Mh/s, measured in BTC (I chose BTC since GAW doesn't actually accept LTC; it works the same of course regardless of what coin you pick).
March 1:  0.01000
April 1:  0.00550
May 1:  0.00300
June 1:  0.00165
July 1:  0.00090
Today:  0.00073
So we can see that return rates have been halving every month since ASICS have been available for the general public.  From this, we can easily calculate that if we had one of these 750Mh/s devices right now in our hands, it would be expected to generate 26.07BTC.  A nice profit.  If we do not receive delivery until August 11th one month from now, our expected return drops to 13.49BTC, for a very small profit.  If we do not get the device in our hands until September 1, return drops to 8.78.  I think the absolute earliest they are saying they will ship these things is and of September, so let's say you get it October first.  Your rate of return will be 3.89BTC, for a device you paid 12.7BTC.  
There is simply no scenario where paying 12.7BTC now for a device that will return 3.89BTC later is a sound financial decision.  Of course these numbers are not exact, and will vary slightly, but the return rate isn't even remotely close to the cost.  And that assumes everything goes well and you get the device on time!  Such things rarely happen. None of this takes into account power costs which you will have to pay as well.  GAW's last pre order was a disaster, with the chips consuming 4 times as much power as they were supposed to.  
Another way to look at this is to just look at what is happening to scrypt miner prices on GAW's own website.  Every week there are substantial price reductions in the cost of scrypt miners.  But with this thing you are locked in at the current price.  A great deal for GAW to be sure.  For the consumer, not so much.  Why lock yourself into the highest price when we know for a fact that the price per Mh/s will drop between now and then?  

tl;dr

There is 0 chance this device ever mines anywhere near as many coins as it costs to purchase.

[EvilPanda]

Where does gaw post their updates to the public? Like i said new to ASIC Any and all info is much appreciated. Thanks everyone for the advice.

On their official forum http://hashtrader.com

If you're interested in Vaultbreakers go to http://www.bringbackroi.com/
It's now the official site dedicated to this project.

Im still interested in one but there is no way to even guarantee ill get my ROI

It's an investment. If you buy LTC or Doge now there's no guarantee you will profit, but with the recent upgrade Vaultbreakers offer the best $/hash on the market (almost 2 times more than KNC Titan for the same price). I also know GAW is working on a way to guarantee ROI, it's called Project Prime and has been in development for over 2 months, I hope they will reveal some more details soon.

If buying ltc/doge does not guarantee profit , then how would mining the same coins for 3-5 months will make you profit. If LTC rises up , then whatever amount you buy today, in future you would make profit. And if LTC price drops , then ROI from Asic will take even much longer time and profitability is distant dream . So mining profitability is related to LTC price and difficulty and don't mislead the OP .

I never said profitability doesn't depend on the price. If you mine coins and the price stays the same you will profit. If you buy& hold and the price stays the same you won't profit.
If the price drops you will lose money anyway - that's why this is an investment and nobody can guarantee profit no matter if you choose mining or holding coins. There's no misleading here

You are introducing exchange rates to intentionally obfuscate the issue, most likely because you are invested in the GAW devices (i.e., company shill) and you know that.  
This device costs a certain amount of BTC.  This is a fact.  This device will mine a certain amount of coins, which are convertible to BTC.  This is also a fact.  If the device will mine less coins than it costs to purchase, it is poor financial decision to purchase it.  That is also a fact.  Last fact, the device costs 12.7BTC
The only real question of note is, will it generate more coins than it costs to purchase, or will it generate less coins than it costs to purchase?
Here is an interesting little chart which illustrates what I said earlier about the 2% drop.  It shows the average rate of return of 1Mh/s, measured in BTC (I chose BTC since GAW doesn't actually accept LTC; it works the same of course regardless of what coin you pick).
March 1:  0.01000
April 1:  0.00550
May 1:  0.00300
June 1:  0.00165
July 1:  0.00090
Today:  0.00073
So we can see that return rates have been halving every month since ASICS have been available for the general public.  From this, we can easily calculate that if we had one of these 750Mh/s devices right now in our hands, it would be expected to generate 26.07BTC.  A nice profit.  If we do not receive delivery until August 11th one month from now, our expected return drops to 13.49BTC, for a very small profit.  If we do not get the device in our hands until September 1, return drops to 8.78.  I think the absolute earliest they are saying they will ship these things is and of September, so let's say you get it October first.  Your rate of return will be 3.89BTC, for a device you paid 12.7BTC.  
There is simply no scenario where paying 12.7BTC now for a device that will return 3.89BTC later is a sound financial decision.  Of course these numbers are not exact, and will vary slightly, but the return rate isn't even remotely close to the cost.  And that assumes everything goes well and you get the device on time!  Such things rarely happen. None of this takes into account power costs which you will have to pay as well.  GAW's last pre order was a disaster, with the chips consuming 4 times as much power as they were supposed to.  
Another way to look at this is to just look at what is happening to scrypt miner prices on GAW's own website.  Every week there are substantial price reductions in the cost of scrypt miners.  But with this thing you are locked in at the current price.  A great deal for GAW to be sure.  For the consumer, not so much.  Why lock yourself into the highest price when we know for a fact that the price per Mh/s will drop between now and then?  

tl;dr

There is 0 chance this device ever mines anywhere near as many coins as it costs to purchase.

1 The device here http://www.bringbackroi.com/ costs 7000USD which is 11BTC not 12.7 don't know where your numbers come from but based on this the whole calculation is invalid.
2. You don't have to pay in BTC or convert anything to BTC, and that's what I'm seeing here.
3. You said you don't know when the device will be available, yet you assume it won't ROI
4. The power consumption had nothing to do with GAW, they were reselling Zeus miners and got the numbers from them. They were not the only ones on the market, every shop selling their products faced the same issue. The Vaultbreaker is a completely different device so there's no point in putting them in one basket.
5. This is a competitive market, every single shop reduces prices.
6. You have a lot of assumptions about me, take a deep breath before calling people names, thanks.

[anderl]

LTC difficulty is climbing 7% every 3.5 days and KNCminers haven't even hit the network yet.  If KNC delivery by end of August then I"m speculating that Difficulty will be around 50000 to 75000 by Sept 1st.

That means that the best case scenario is that if GAW delivers on Sept 1st it will ROI in 60 (worst case 100) days.  However if a lot of vault breakers ship at the same time then by end of Sept difficulty will be well over 100k to 150k.

So within 1 month of shipping if they ship on Sept 1st best case scenario is that Vaultbreakers will ROI in 133 days (worse case 200 days).

Remember that if GAW sells 1000 Vaultbreakers that will at 750GHs to the network.  The network is already at around 600 GHs.

[jimlite]

Well you are all forgetting one thing. GAW will let you cancel the order at any time or refund within 14 days, so there really is no risk. And if GAW lowers the price, I am sure you will get the discount as well. And it really all depends on if it beats Titan to market or not.

[spiceminer15]

Well you are all forgetting one thing. GAW will let you cancel the order at any time or refund within 14 days, so there really is no risk. And if GAW lowers the price, I am sure you will get the discount as well. And it really all depends on if it beats Titan to market or not.

lol....

[Equate]

LTC difficulty is climbing 7% every 3.5 days and KNCminers haven't even hit the network yet.  If KNC delivery by end of August then I"m speculating that Difficulty will be around 50000 to 75000 by Sept 1st.

That means that the best case scenario is that if GAW delivers on Sept 1st it will ROI in 60 (worst case 100) days.  However if a lot of vault breakers ship at the same time then by end of Sept difficulty will be well over 100k to 150k.

So within 1 month of shipping if they ship on Sept 1st best case scenario is that Vaultbreakers will ROI in 133 days (worse case 200 days).

Remember that if GAW sells 1000 Vaultbreakers that will at 750GHs to the network.  The network is already at around 600 GHs.

Not only KNC , but Alpha-t and many other manufacturers will be releasing higher hash rate Asics  , so difficulty is gonna skyrocket  and giving current stats for future ROI is manipulative on part of sellers.

[brian_23452]

1 The device here http://www.bringbackroi.com/ costs 7000USD which is 11BTC not 12.7 don't know where your numbers come from but based on this the whole calculation is invalid.

Batch one, which was what they were selling when he posted this, was 8000USD or 12.7BTC.  Batch two which they are selling now for "only" 7000USD is not going to be released until one month later (when it will then generate half as much revenue as batch one's already puny amount).  You really should learn your own products
In any case, if everything is completed on schedule and this guy is the very first person in the world to take delivery of the thing on October first, it will generate about 3.5BTC to 4.0BTC.  It won't matter if he paid 12.7BTC or 11BTC, he will have lost a substantial amount of money.  But you're right, since one minor point *might* not be exact, everything else must be completely wrong and difficulty is going to magically go down  

2. You don't have to pay in BTC or convert anything to BTC, and that's what I'm seeing here.

8000USD=12.7BTC.  12.7BTC=8000USD.  You won't magically ROI by choosing a different form of payment.  

3. You said you don't know when the device will be available, yet you assume it won't ROI

It needs to be in his hands and mining away by the end of July at the latest to have any chance at ROI.  They have stated the SOONEST it will be available will be October.  It isn't that hard to figure out, even without knowing the exact delivery date, since their earliest possible delivery date is WAY after any chance to ROI is long past.

4. The power consumption had nothing to do with GAW, they were reselling Zeus miners and got the numbers from them. They were not the only ones on the market, every shop selling their products faced the same issue. The Vaultbreaker is a completely different device so there's no point in putting them in one basket.

A.  I doubt  the people stuck with crappy miners consuming four times their advertised power rating care who's fault it was (to say nothing of the people who couldn't even use the things because the larger units consume more power than the typical home circuit provides).  But in so far as blame is to be dolled out, the miners say GAW on the label, not ZEUS.
B.  They were reselling ZEUS miners, and now their reselling someone else's miners.  What's your point?
C.  *My* point was, that just because they are advertising certain specs now, doesn't mean it will actually have those advertised specs when the device is finished. 

5. This is a competitive market, every single shop reduces prices.

Finally something we agree on.  Yes, everyone regularly reduces the prices because hashpower is constantly decreasing in value.  Knowing that the value of a given hashrate is going to go down, why the heck would you want to lock in today's rate when you know it will be lower tomorrow?

6. You have a lot of assumptions about me, take a deep breath before calling people names, thanks.

Merriam Webster's definition for shill:  to talk about or describe someone or something in a favorable way because you are being paid to do it


Incidentally, my favorite part about your shill speech is how you completely ignore the clear trend in difficulty and rate of return that I demonstrated, you know, the things that actually matter in determining if he ROIs or not, to quibble over minor details.