The catalyst that will drive BTC over $1000

[DieJohnny]

Bitcoin needs a catalyst but in won't be Winkle-ETF

Human struggle will be the catalyst, more than greed. Cyprus, Chinese fiinancial oppression, those are catalysts.

Whats next is complete social adoption by an entire struggling community that isn't the drug or porn community. That community will blaze the trail, make everyone in that community wildly wealthy and the rest of the planet will follow suit.

But you won't be selling your Bitcoin for cash, you will just pay off your house with a tenth of a Bitcoin because your bank will love to take your coins off your hands.

[boraf]

One ''big player'' like google, fb, ebay and BTC will go + 10000$

Bitcoin still have a lot of regulatory uncertainty. Why get into the mess and venture into something they are not familiar with?

[ThatDGuy]

One ''big player'' like google, fb, ebay and BTC will go + 10000$

Bitcoin still have a lot of regulatory uncertainty. Why get into the mess and venture into something they are not familiar with?

NewEgg now accepts Bitcoin, quicker than I would have thought.  I'm guessing we'll likewise see one of those big players integrating BTC sooner than we think.

[vuduchyld]

While it would be good news, the ETF already has their coins. Unless they plan on buying more to keep up with their own demand, I don't see how this would directly affect the price other than the news aspect. 

There is no "plan" - as soon as they sell enough shares to cover their current assets, they will be obliged to buy more bitcoin. At market price. So even 200mil invested into that ETF would put a huge pressure on the price and send it to 4 digits - there's not that much coin for sale at these low prices,

For what it's worth, since the ETF isn't backed by actual BTC (any more than the gold ETF is backed by physical gold), I don't think they will be obligated to buy more bitcoin.

That's not to say that they won't choose to do it, but I'm not sure they will be forced to do it.

[Raystonn]

While it would be good news, the ETF already has their coins. Unless they plan on buying more to keep up with their own demand, I don't see how this would directly affect the price other than the news aspect. 

There is no "plan" - as soon as they sell enough shares to cover their current assets, they will be obliged to buy more bitcoin. At market price. So even 200mil invested into that ETF would put a huge pressure on the price and send it to 4 digits - there's not that much coin for sale at these low prices,

For what it's worth, since the ETF isn't backed by actual BTC (any more than the gold ETF is backed by physical gold), I don't think they will be obligated to buy more bitcoin.

That's not to say that they won't choose to do it, but I'm not sure they will be forced to do it.

Where did you get any of this misinformation?  The gold ETF consists of gold derivative contracts that are backed by gold.  The Bitcoin ETF is backed by 0.2 BTC per share.

[vuduchyld]

While it would be good news, the ETF already has their coins. Unless they plan on buying more to keep up with their own demand, I don't see how this would directly affect the price other than the news aspect.  

There is no "plan" - as soon as they sell enough shares to cover their current assets, they will be obliged to buy more bitcoin. At market price. So even 200mil invested into that ETF would put a huge pressure on the price and send it to 4 digits - there's not that much coin for sale at these low prices,

For what it's worth, since the ETF isn't backed by actual BTC (any more than the gold ETF is backed by physical gold), I don't think they will be obligated to buy more bitcoin.

That's not to say that they won't choose to do it, but I'm not sure they will be forced to do it.

Where did you get any of this misinformation?  The gold ETF consists of gold derivative contracts that are backed by gold.  The Bitcoin ETF is backed by 0.2 BTC per share.

http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2014/05/01/own-the-gold-etf-you-dont-quite-own-gold/
https://www.blanchardgold.com/invest-in-gold/physical-gold/
http://seekingalpha.com/article/262084-gold-etfs-are-useful-but-be-aware-of-special-custody-risks

Maybe I'm reading it all wrong.  And maybe the COIN ETF would have different auditing and custody procedures. I don't know.

[RyNinDaCleM]

While it would be good news, the ETF already has their coins. Unless they plan on buying more to keep up with their own demand, I don't see how this would directly affect the price other than the news aspect.  

There is no "plan" - as soon as they sell enough shares to cover their current assets, they will be obliged to buy more bitcoin. At market price. So even 200mil invested into that ETF would put a huge pressure on the price and send it to 4 digits - there's not that much coin for sale at these low prices,

For what it's worth, since the ETF isn't backed by actual BTC (any more than the gold ETF is backed by physical gold), I don't think they will be obligated to buy more bitcoin.

That's not to say that they won't choose to do it, but I'm not sure they will be forced to do it.

Where did you get any of this misinformation?  The gold ETF consists of gold derivative contracts that are backed by gold.  The Bitcoin ETF is backed by 0.2 BTC per share.

http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2014/05/01/own-the-gold-etf-you-dont-quite-own-gold/
https://www.blanchardgold.com/invest-in-gold/physical-gold/
http://seekingalpha.com/article/262084-gold-etfs-are-useful-but-be-aware-of-special-custody-risks

Maybe I'm reading it all wrong.  And maybe the COIN ETF would have different auditing and custody procedures. I don't know.

It is hard to confirm since as far as I know there isn't a publicly known address, but they did buy some 100k+ BTC back in 2011-12 just for this ETF.

[howardb]

People should not underestimate the effect of an ETF being available. Nobody thought GLD would take off like it did least of all Spyder. I expect the same to happen for BTC (on a lesser scale of course, we are starting from  a much lower position). I absolutely believe BTC has got at least two orders of magnitude of rapid growth ahead of it, probably 3.

[wasserman99]

While it would be good news, the ETF already has their coins. Unless they plan on buying more to keep up with their own demand, I don't see how this would directly affect the price other than the news aspect. 

Well, it would be news for sure. But, many seem to think that a legitimate, SEC-approved fund would allow a lot of institutional money in. How much demand like that there is -- hard to say, but it could conceivably outrun their supply. Wall Street brings billions they say. We'll see, anyway.

[Raystonn]

The new hedge fund in Jersey will attract large accredited investors.  You can avoid capital gains taxes there.  The ETF will attract everyone else.

[boraf]

The new hedge fund in Jersey will attract large accredited investors.  You can avoid capital gains taxes there.  The ETF will attract everyone else.

Which hedge fund going to invest in btc? I am not aware there is a place where investor can avoid capital gain tax.

[ShakyhandsBTCer]

While it would be good news, the ETF already has their coins. Unless they plan on buying more to keep up with their own demand, I don't see how this would directly affect the price other than the news aspect. 

The ETF may already have their coins, but if the price of the ETF rises above the market price of bitcoin then people (AP) will buy bitcoin on exchanges, so they can exchange their bitcoin for shares of COIN and sell the ETF on the market.

[kodtycoon]

But will investors be able to take physical (for lack of better terms) delivery of the actual coins? I haven't seen anywhere that this was mentioned before. If not, then they are effectively trading paper that is merely backed by Bitcoin.

isn't that how gold etfs work? and all etfs for that matter.

It could be   ETF's are one thing I've never traded. So I don't know. That's why I ask

ETFs are basically paper shares, you can't take delivery on the underlying asset. It's not like futures contracts on comex.

YOU can't, but big players can in the form of baskets of many shares (basket size is defined somewhere in the filings, I forgot what it is).

bitcoins can be added or removed goto/from the etf in baskets as mentioned. Each basket Is equal to 10k bitcoins. You must purchase shares of one whole basket before you can actually get delivery of the bitcoins. If a whale wants to sell in bulk he can send 10k in one lump to be sold as a basket on the etf. How they actually get sold I don't know. I assume the sender of the basket would be given the number of shares that represent 1 basket so he could sell in his own time, but that's just a guess really.

[ThomasCrowne]

While it would be good news, the ETF already has their coins. Unless they plan on buying more to keep up with their own demand, I don't see how this would directly affect the price other than the news aspect. 

Yup...seriously doubt the Winklevoss ETF will result in significantly higher BTC prices given how fat a stack the twins are sitting on presently.  Perhaps another year or two down the road it will have some impact but these guys are bitcoin-fatty fat right now and can self-fund their own ETF for sometime to come in my opinion.

[ShakyhandsBTCer]

While it would be good news, the ETF already has their coins. Unless they plan on buying more to keep up with their own demand, I don't see how this would directly affect the price other than the news aspect. 

Yup...seriously doubt the Winklevoss ETF will result in significantly higher BTC prices given how fat a stack the twins are sitting on presently.  Perhaps another year or two down the road it will have some impact but these guys are bitcoin-fatty fat right now and can self-fund their own ETF for sometime to come in my opinion.

I would argue that the ETF will give bitcoin some level of legitimacy and should generate additional interest for bitcoin by investors.

[bomberos]

word is a south american firm is opening up a "basket coin" with leading cryptos in the coming months. sounds centralized but also talking about provable reserves

[RyNinDaCleM]

While it would be good news, the ETF already has their coins. Unless they plan on buying more to keep up with their own demand, I don't see how this would directly affect the price other than the news aspect. 

Yup...seriously doubt the Winklevoss ETF will result in significantly higher BTC prices given how fat a stack the twins are sitting on presently.  Perhaps another year or two down the road it will have some impact but these guys are bitcoin-fatty fat right now and can self-fund their own ETF for sometime to come in my opinion.

I would argue that the ETF will give bitcoin some level of legitimacy and should generate additional interest for bitcoin by investors.

This is part of the "news aspect" I was referring to. I suppose if they do buy more BTC on exchanges to allow more baskets to be bought on their ETF then that would be the "direct affect" I was referring to. They may even arb during inefficiency.

On another note, institutional investors (who are less of the hodl through anything type) may be more inclined to sell at peaks than some others creating potentially more volatility. This is not to say the price won't be driven up first, but these are wall streeters (IE traders), not foreverhodlers.

[Mageant]

While it would be good news, the ETF already has their coins. Unless they plan on buying more to keep up with their own demand, I don't see how this would directly affect the price other than the news aspect. 

Yup...seriously doubt the Winklevoss ETF will result in significantly higher BTC prices given how fat a stack the twins are sitting on presently.  Perhaps another year or two down the road it will have some impact but these guys are bitcoin-fatty fat right now and can self-fund their own ETF for sometime to come in my opinion.

I'm not sure the Winkelvoss are interested in reducing their own holdings. The seem kind of proud to be holding 1% of all Bitcoins. I think they will buy Bitcoins from somewhere to balance out whatever they sell in the ETF.

[painlord2k]

On another note, institutional investors (who are less of the hodl through anything type) may be more inclined to sell at peaks than some others creating potentially more volatility. This is not to say the price won't be driven up first, but these are wall streeters (IE traders), not foreverhodlers.

Professional know how to sell as the price raise away from fundamentals, so they reduce volatility in the end.
They sell peaks and buy dips, reducing the oscillations.

[abercrombie]

Isn't it obvious that the next catalyst that will cause the price of BTC to increase will be when the winklevos etf starts. As soon as people can start purchasing "COIN" I predict the price of BTC to go to the moon and beyond. We should all be paying very close attention to this.

Winklevos gonna get beat by Second Market's fund.  Then a few weeks from now, NY will create regulations for the first Bitcoin exchange.  So Winklevoss' fund will likely be old news once it hits Nasdaq.