Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Prediction. $4000-$6500 by August/September 2014.

[colinistheman]

We will see it soon, i hope you right but i really doubt it.

Let's just watch and see. It will be a game. And cut me some slack if I'm off by a month. But it will happen! I'm hoping my timing is correct too.

We will begin to see the bull run begin very shortly.

[ShakyhandsBTCer]

You do know what those excess reserves mean right? If they pull them out and start lending, which is ironically what is likely to happen if interest rates go UP without the bribe rate (the interest rate on excess reserves) going up, an extra $26 Trillion can work its way into the M2. That would constitute an increase greater than 200%. Thats one really wound up spring ready to snap back.

In order for that not to happen, they have to do two things. Suppress the earnings of financial institutions so owner's equity doesn't creep into those reserves, and keep the bribe rates at least as they are right now proportional to mortgage and other forms of lending that "leads into the economy."

Are you talking about the excess reserves that banks hold at the US Fed or something else?  The latest data puts those reserves at around $2.6T, not $26T.  That's still a lot, obviously, but only about 20% of M2 instead of 200%.

See the Federal Reserve site for the latest data: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/current/

2.6T USD of excess reserves can generate an increase of 26T USD in M2 because the reserve requirement is at most 10%. http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm. For each dollar the Federal Reserve prints the banks can print an additional nine dollars because of fractional reserve banking.

This is technically true, however in order for this to materialize there needs to be demand for such loans, which there is not.

[scribbles]

I wonder what will happen when certain people cash out their Bitcoins at whatever price back into their bank accounts via Coinbase? Like, when a coin is worth $3500 for example and someone cashes out 10 and $35k comes into their account out of nowhere. Does Coinbase have something worked out w/ banks that won't make them put a hold on an account when such lump sums come flying in? Not a matter of if but when this type of thing happens.

I'm curious why you would think my bank would put a hold on my account for a deposit such as 35k? I've had deposits in the form of ACH from real estate sales come in at over 50k and my bank didn't even blink, just business as usual. Maybe because coinbase is a bitcoin business then banks will be under pressure with the governments suspicion (paranoia) of bitcoin and money laundering?

Now if the bank has to report these large transactions to the IRS (for those in the US) then we'd be subject to whatever capital gains rules are in place at that time regarding bitcoin. With capital gains repurcutions, in this scenario I might look for a way sell btc without sending funds to my bank. Need to find a cretic tax accountant soon...

[ArticMine]

This is technically true, however in order for this to materialize there needs to be demand for such loans, which there is not.

Precisely. Which is why we have not seen the hyper inflation in the US that many have predicted.
Edit: This leads to my original point. Without an inflationary collapse of USD to save gold and other PMs, bitcoin could easily devastate the gold and other PM markets.

[ThomasCrowne]

The only way i see this OP prediction coming to pass is if some major run is made on USD by China and/or Russia.  But it seems the chinese at least are more interested in just increasing their store of gold at this point.

[ShakyhandsBTCer]

This is technically true, however in order for this to materialize there needs to be demand for such loans, which there is not.

Precisely. Which is why we have not seen the hyper inflation in the US that many have predicted.
Edit: This leads to my original point. Without an inflationary collapse of USD to save gold and other PMs, bitcoin could easily devastate the gold and other PM markets.

Bitcoin could compete with other precious metals, but would not necessarily devastate them. Bitcoin like other PMs have their own uses which partially backs their value.

[wobber]

So July's mega-rally has been delayed to August-September or even October oh sweet November?

[master-P]

So July's mega-rally has been delayed to August-September or even October oh sweet November?

I wouldn't be surprised if it's delayed once again till next year. A lot of fresh fiat would have to enter the market in order for btc to reach $5k, and there doesn't seem to be any significant event in the horizon that would point to such a buying frenzy.

[maker88]

So July's mega-rally has been delayed to August-September or even October oh sweet November?

I wouldn't be surprised if it's delayed once again till next year. A lot of fresh fiat would have to enter the market in order for btc to reach $5k, and there doesn't seem to be any significant event in the horizon that would point to such a buying frenzy.

GABI hedgefund being released doesn't point to an influx of money?

[windjc]

So July's mega-rally has been delayed to August-September or even October oh sweet November?

I wouldn't be surprised if it's delayed once again till next year. A lot of fresh fiat would have to enter the market in order for btc to reach $5k, and there doesn't seem to be any significant event in the horizon that would point to such a buying frenzy.

No event on the horizon. Lol. Ok.

[colinistheman]

I think there are a lot of events on the horizon that are going to be very realistic reasons for the bitcoin price to explode again. Namely ETF's. There are several in the works. It won't be long. A month is like 5 years of progress in the bitcoin world.

[ScryptAsic]

Still waiting for it, hopefully it turns out to be true

[jcoin200]

I think there are a lot of events on the horizon that are going to be very realistic reasons for the bitcoin price to explode again. Namely ETF's. There are several in the works. It won't be long. A month is like 5 years of progress in the bitcoin world.

Yeah these ETF's with all the legal certifications may be the only thing holding back "wall street" money from coming in.  We'll see very very soon!

[wobber]

Time will pass, August will come and go, September will come and go and the price won't even be 1000 again.

[spazzdla]

10% reserve.... I thought it was down to 1.5/2%....

[Divinespark]

Absolutely no chance
Pass the weed you are smoking please

[lumierre]

I don't see it happening. Where is all this money going to come from?

It won't need much to move the market.

We do not need $80b to reach an $80b market cap just as we can crash the market price now with only a few thousand bitcoins.

The money will simply come from new comers and the same people who sold.

[elebit]

I wouldn't be surprised if it's delayed once again till next year.

Isn't there a block halving scheduled for next spring?

That should be helpful.

[hellscabane]

I wouldn't be surprised if it's delayed once again till next year.

Isn't there a block halving scheduled for next spring?

That should be helpful.

Last time I checked, the block propagation rate (averaging a block for every 8ish minutes) coincides with the next block halving being sometime at the end of 2015 which is a while from now.

[BitchicksHusband]

I wouldn't be surprised if it's delayed once again till next year.

Isn't there a block halving scheduled for next spring?

That should be helpful.

Last time I checked, the block propagation rate (averaging a block for every 8ish minutes) coincides with the next block halving being sometime at the end of 2015 which is a while from now.

bitcoinclock.com has it as: Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-08-11.  Is that accurate?