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Author Topic: calling the short-term top  (Read 2055 times)
arepo
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this statement is false


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March 14, 2012, 08:37:10 PM
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so this is clearly a reversal, but rather early if you compare the shapes of the tail end of the bubble to that of the echo bubble (they're nearly identical, it's amazing). so we're definitely overdue for a correction. $5.20 will be an important level of support, but we may break that and bounce of $5.05 (the last level of support before the recent knife).


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March 14, 2012, 09:02:45 PM
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so this is clearly a reversal, but rather early if you compare the shapes of the tail end of the bubble to that of the echo bubble (they're nearly identical, it's amazing). so we're definitely overdue for a correction. $5.20 will be an important level of support, but we may break that and bounce of $5.05 (the last level of support before the recent knife).



Ok, I sold 1 bitcoin and put a limit buy at 5.25.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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ElectricMucus
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March 14, 2012, 09:09:22 PM
 #3

This is the strongest spike since the beginning of the rally from 2.5. You are wrong.

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March 14, 2012, 09:17:44 PM
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This is the strongest spike since the beginning of the rally from 2.5. You are wrong.

How do you define strongest? We've had bigger spikes in volume, absolute price increase and relative price increase since the beginning of the rally from 2.5.

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March 14, 2012, 09:20:51 PM
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This is the strongest spike since the beginning of the rally from 2.5. You are wrong.

How do you define strongest? We've had bigger spikes in volume, absolute price increase and relative price increase since the beginning of the rally from 2.5.
In terms of counter movements during the spike. Mass Index is totally flat, Aroon UP close to 100 with Aroon down at Zero. When the spike is finished it could very well be the largest.

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March 14, 2012, 09:36:38 PM
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ElectricMucus, your last post is kinda opposite of what you said in another thread:

There is something in-between these options, and my bet is that is what's gonna happen, I'm not entirely certain but that's as good a guess as any.
So we will race up again, but with limited potential, though most likely above the classical bull trap.

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March 14, 2012, 09:39:16 PM
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No they are not exclusive. I think we will stay below the current high of ~7.5 but get above 6.
Might be a double top.

A rally would mean new significant highs in my book.

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March 14, 2012, 09:59:14 PM
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Ah that makes sense, thanks for the explanation Smiley

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March 14, 2012, 10:11:21 PM
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Meanwhile, on MtGox...
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March 14, 2012, 10:13:39 PM
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I say $9

If it goes to $9 I will make up for all my losses of the big crash  Grin
arepo
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this statement is false


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March 14, 2012, 11:01:09 PM
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This is the strongest spike since the beginning of the rally from 2.5. You are wrong.

that is incorrect. the end-december rally was much larger. futhermore, the size of this movement is exactly my point -- we've overstepped the rates of growth leading off of the last bubble, and since the growth patterns are nearly identical everywhere else it makes me suspicious whether or not this is stable. i just think we'll retrace to $5.20 before resuming UP.

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March 14, 2012, 11:03:46 PM
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i just think we'll retrace to $5.20 before resuming UP.
Why on earth would one even bother to call this micro stuff?

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March 14, 2012, 11:24:43 PM
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i just think we'll retrace to $5.20 before resuming UP.
Why on earth would one even bother to call this micro stuff?

I usually call stuff like this when I want to try to help push the market one way or another so that I can make a profit.
arepo
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this statement is false


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March 15, 2012, 12:34:59 AM
 #14

i just think we'll retrace to $5.20 before resuming UP.
Why on earth would one even bother to call this micro stuff?

because there is still debate over whether or not this is a reversal. the price movement now is an important signalling factor.

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March 15, 2012, 01:51:08 AM
 #15

It seems I was wrong, you may be right OP.

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arepo
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this statement is false


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March 15, 2012, 02:13:54 AM
 #16

BIG move up coming. Acc/Distr has still been decreasing the whole time the price has been rising, but now seems like it maybe be finally bottoming out. aroon and adx both show continuation patterns suggesting a strong bullish move soon. after the consolidation/correction described in this thread is over, we may see the largest rally since the push to $7.00. the price may even be strong enough not to correct at all, and to consolidate along the resistance at $5.35 and then launch from there.


this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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mysteriousawake
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March 15, 2012, 04:55:35 AM
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I hate no corrections,  but whats worse is when you go to work leaving your bids open. and it doesnt happen, lol.  I got 5.15-5.20 if it corrects though.

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March 15, 2012, 05:53:20 AM
 #18

BIG move up coming.
Market is very thin. Indicators show what might happen but that doesn't mean it will happen.
Market needs a fresh blood to move up high. Speculation only is probably not enough, more media coverage is needed.

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March 15, 2012, 08:02:41 AM
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i just think we'll retrace to $5.20 before resuming UP.
Why on earth would one even bother to call this micro stuff?

To know when to pump up a long on Bitcoinica

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arepo
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this statement is false


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March 15, 2012, 08:41:11 PM
 #20

BIG move up coming.
Market is very thin. Indicators show what might happen but that doesn't mean it will happen.
Market needs a fresh blood to move up high. Speculation only is probably not enough, more media coverage is needed.

indicators respond to the actions of traders, because they are all based on price and volume.



-acc/dist keeps going down yet price is stable. i can now confirm the OP, that $5.20 will definitely be the bottom, as long as the acc/distr line foreshadows a reversal soon.

-mass index is ready for another price movement

-william's and ultimate oscillators both scream short-term oversold.

so listen to crypt and take this opportunity to pump up that long!

also, i hope you're enjoying my analysis; i've been thinking of doing a subscription-type service i just don't know how big my fan club is xP i haven't really gotten any votes on the 'your favorite speculator" thread.

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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