Whats taking so long?

[BittBurger]

BTC price going significantly up requires one thing (okay three):   

Consumer adoption, demand, and commerce.

This "stage" of the game is still some time off.  This is why the price rocket to the moon has not begun yet.

And will *not* begin despite any number of "good news" articles that come out.  Period.

The first round of Bitcoin startups (focused mainly on making bitcoin easier to use) are still in funding/planning/setup phase. 

Barely the first 1, 2, or 3 of them have actually begun doing business and making themselves known.

*After* that, you're looking at a significant amount of more time where even more *Merchant* adoption has to take place.   

There's got to be somewhere for Bitcoin to be used, first. 

Both of these are necessary before Consumer adoption, demand, and commerce can even begin. 
 
And even then, its not like Consumers are just going to start going shopping with Bitcoin.   *Something* unique, interesting, and exciting must catch the consumers eye, and draw the masses in droves towards Bitcoin.  I wonder what that thing will be?

-B-

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[smoothie]

All I see it doing is building a base in price before the next rocket. A good thing.

Let it take its time.

[Bit_Happy]

BTC price going significantly up requires one thing (okay three):   
...

"BTC price going up significantly requires one thing": More buyers than sellers <period>

Are you not aware of the historical massive rallies that BTC has had already?
The next Huge Rally can happen based on expectations, not reality.

[spiderbrain]

The value going up from a purely network effect point of view, absolutely. But there are plently of other people who know this is going to happen apart from the people who talk about it on this forum, and want to make a fairly safe high percentage short term return. I suspect these people are only waiting for the cheapest time to buy in and we'll see some decent action this year before the network size fundamentals raise the price on their own.

That said, there are plenty of ridiculous whiners on this forum that can't wait a year or two to get rich. come one, guys, relax!

[elebit]

BTC price going significantly up requires one thing (okay three): Consumer adoption, demand, and commerce.
This "stage" of the game is still some time off.  This is why the price rocket to the moon has not begun yet.

You forgot speculation. We've had quite a few bubbles, large and small, already.

Problem is, if you're only in when real consumer adoption comes, you'll have to buy in > $10k.

That's why I'm in now and not next year.

[ThatDGuy]

All I see it doing is building a base in price before the next rocket. A good thing.

Let it take its time.

Totally agreed on both points, I used to be anxious for the price to go up - now I'm just happy to have more time to buy low!

[Bit_Happy]

I AM patient, my target for this year is "only" $3,500/BTC. 

[zoinky]

All I see it doing is building a base in price before the next rocket. A good thing.

Let it take its time.

For real.

[byronbb]

When most of the market expects a bubble then it really is no surprise when the opposite occurs. (Or at least a sideways meandering).

[atc1]

Is it possible for another bubble to occur? Once a product has gone relatively mainstream in that a majority of people are aware of it, bubbles generally do not occur because there is a lack of further speculation.

[Benjig]

All I see it doing is building a base in price before the next rocket. A good thing.

Let it take its time.

Totally agreed on both points, I used to be anxious for the price to go up - now I'm just happy to have more time to buy low!

Yeah and thats how every bear should think about it instead of making bear topics expecting it to go more lower.

[notme]

Is it possible for another bubble to occur? Once a product has gone relatively mainstream in that a majority of people are aware of it, bubbles generally do not occur because there is a lack of further speculation.

I highly encourage you to do a survey in your local community.  Unless you happen to live in silicon valley, chances are more than 90% of people's eyes will glaze over if you ask them about bitcoin.

We are very far from the majority of people being aware of it.

[ThatDGuy]

Is it possible for another bubble to occur? Once a product has gone relatively mainstream in that a majority of people are aware of it, bubbles generally do not occur because there is a lack of further speculation.

Most people are aware of Bitcoin in name only.  Most have next to no idea the potential for technological and economic disruption it has.

I would imagine seeing a few more bubbles as the realization of that starts to set in.

[Raystonn]

Don't worry.  I've got considerable fiat coming available on August 25th.  (Really.)  So we're guaranteed to bubble before that date just so I can't buy more at a good price.

[keithers]

I AM patient, my target for this year is "only" $3,500/BTC. 

$3500 would be amazing. I would be more than happy with $1500 though as well. Hell, just reaching a new ATH would be huge because it would prove to all the doubters how resilient BTC is

[BitchicksHusband]

Don't worry.  I've got considerable fiat coming available on August 25th.  (Really.)  So we're guaranteed to bubble before that date just so I can't buy more at a good price.

Thanks for taking one for the team, Raystonn.  You're a stand-up guy.

[RodeoX]

I expect this to play out over years or decades.

[TheJuice]

Only in BTC terms would this be considered taking too long. In what, 4 years we've gone from nothing to multi-billion dollar idea.

[ThatDGuy]

Only in BTC terms would this be considered taking too long. In what, 4 years we've gone from nothing to multi-billion dollar idea.

Learning about the protocol certainly has that effect of seeming to slow down time.  I remember when I first started really getting into it, I was spending hours a day reading up, watching the market, doing some trading.

The excitement factor and extremely fast development definitely can create some false expectations of constant violent action.  The reality seems to be a few months correcting, a few more with development of infrastructure and sideways value adjustments, and then one month of complete fucking insanity. Rinse and repeat.

It all seems relative, though.  Once you've been through a bubble or two, it's easier to have the overall perspective of just how quickly BTC is growing into a behemoth.

[SimonJones]

We need more buyers.

[ponch85]

We need more buyers.

ok buy 0.1 

[wenben]

Cost of production will keep bitcoin price in check.

[novacn]

Good point. Without hot Chinese money, it takes even more time to regain strength for the next leap.

[btcton]

It's pretty obvious that a few of our forum users are here just to get rich quick... (And no, I'm not referring to the OP).

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

LOL. Why we are all not millioners yet - it has been X months!!! <sarcasm end>

[okthen]

We need huge news. Everyone is waiting, specially the big wallstreet names.
I guess there is some movement off-exchanges too.
Let's hope the Winklevii move quickly!

[counter]

All I see it doing is building a base in price before the next rocket. A good thing.

Let it take its time.

For real.

Mmhmm, slow and steady wins the race.  Bitcoin is the tortoise so everbody hodl on!

[bitcoinsrus]

All I see it doing is building a base in price before the next rocket. A good thing.

Let it take its time.

For real.

Mmhmm, slow and steady wins the race.  Bitcoin is the tortoise so everbody hodl on!

http://youtu.be/BCUtl634zrQ?t=6s

[Ibian]

It's all coming together. Adoption by big businesses like overstock, dish, newegg etc helps convince the world that bitcoin is serious business. The Twinkletf and likely other similar stuff gives Big Money a regulated way in. And the recent bitlicense announcement gives it the blessing of our overlords. All we need now is some kind of spark.

[devphp]

When most of the market expects a bubble then it really is no surprise when the opposite occurs. (Or at least a sideways meandering).

+1

People expected new ATHs to happen each 6-7 months as in the past, this didn't happen, the new bubble should have already formed by now, but it didn't, not even an indication it's starting to form, on the contrary, the price is hardly holding here and could go down to $500-550 support level.

Conclusions:

1) 2013 bubbles (November and perhaps April too) were likely triggered by Mt.Gox fake bot trading as evidence suggests, with China taking over later when the bubble already started forming;
2) It takes significantly more capital to move marketcap from $10 bln to $100 bln;
3) I expect another 12 months of BTC price not going above $1000, it may reach $1000 this year, everybody will be singing "new ATH soon!" only later to see it go down a few hundred and swing back and forth between $500-$1000, still a good investment, compared to many others, but certainly it won't perform as it did before, because the kind of capital required to move the market is simply not there (remember, 3600 bitcoins are added to supply daily that somebody has to keep buying just to keep the price at this level + some hodlers selling too).

[falllling]

When most of the market expects a bubble then it really is no surprise when the opposite occurs. (Or at least a sideways meandering).

+1

People expected new ATHs to happen each 6-7 months as in the past, this didn't happen, the new bubble should have already formed by now, but it didn't, not even an indication it's starting to form, on the contrary, the price is hardly holding here and could go down to $500-550 support level.

Conclusions:

1) 2013 bubbles (November and perhaps April too) were likely triggered by Mt.Gox fake bot trading as evidence suggests, with China taking over later when the bubble already started forming;
2) It takes significantly more capital to move marketcap from $10 bln to $100 bln;
3) I expect another 12 months of BTC price not going above $1000, it may reach $1000 this year, everybody will be singing "new ATH soon!" only later to see it go down a few hundred and swing back and forth between $500-$1000, still a good investment, compared to many others, but certainly it won't perform as it did before, because the kind of capital required to move the market is simply not there (remember, 3600 bitcoins are added to supply daily that somebody has to keep buying just to keep the price at this level + some hodlers selling too).

i think not only the bubble won't happen but also A big crash is coming !

[devphp]

i think not only the bubble won't happen but also A big crash is coming !

how big is big?

If it retreats to $500-550 support level, the likelihood of which is not low, it's not a crash, or at least not a big one.

[falllling]

i think not only the bubble won't happen but also A big crash is coming !

how big is big?

If it retreats to $500-550 support level, the likelihood of which is not low, it's not a crash, or at least not a big one.

the crash hasn't started yet, this expected rally up is taking too long, people will soon start dumping, $400 could be a very easy target

[devphp]

$400 is possible, but won't be easy, there is a very strong support at that level. $500-550 is very likely.

[Torque]

I was just over in the FB stock forum and saying the same thing.  What's taking so long for FB stock to hit $1000/share?  I just don't understand.  It should be at moon by now.

Lol.

[spazzdla]

Wait until the RBICS opens in 2016...  Shit will get interesting then.  So tight lipped ... gold and BTC holdings they will have?

I wonder if they will show the world their gold holdings FORCING america to prove they have gold..