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Author Topic: THE STATE OF DOGECOIN  (Read 2160 times)
thistime (OP)
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July 16, 2014, 10:46:49 PM
 #1

Preface:

I have collected as much data as I could possibly find and contacted as many major players in the Dogecoin community as I could.  I hope you all find this synthesis of information informative and worthy of discussion.

Anything that was announced in the few days before this was posted may not be included here, due to me working on this for the last 2 weeks!  

I wish I could have included EVERYTHING, but there is just too much to add that fits in one post.

I hope to do this again, maybe even as a quarterly report.

Please take all the information presented to you here and make your own conclusions about how important each piece of data is to YOUR view of Dogecoin.


Price

1 Doge = 0.00029 USD

Price would have to increase ~750% to be back at peak value.

COMPARED TO LITECOIN

1 LTC = 7.60 USD

Price would have to increase ~650% to be back at peak value.

Market Capitalization

7th of all digital currencies, ~$23 Million USD (http://beta.coinmarketcap.com/currencies/views/all/)

Our market cap has been declining the last few months, most coin’s have (http://coinfinance.com/gainers_losers/30_days). I am excited to know what our year-to-year price change will be as that is a better measure of change than the last 30 days.  

For the past few days I have been trying to find a graph of the TOTAL market cap of all coins together over time.

I have a theory that not a lot of money is being put into cryptocurrencies at the moment, and the coins that go up in value are taking away value from others. What do you think?

I want to know if this is true, or if I am crazy. If that is somewhat true, there is a limit to how many coins will make it big.

I'd love to just see the total ALTCOIN market cap over time as well.

Hashrate/Halving

Hashrate = ~50GH/s

Oddly, this is about the same hashrate we had after the last halving!  ASICs inbound…  

I could not find what proportion of the SCRYPT hashrate we have over time, as that is the best measure of hashrate in relation to other coins.  

I do have this though. (http://www.coinwarz.com/cryptocurrency?sort=hashrate&dir=desc)

Litecoin’s hashrate is about 10 times larger than ours now.

The current block reward (recent halving) will create 90 Million Dogecoins/day or 38.7BTC at current prices.

This means that if ALL mined Dogecoins are sold every day they would only make up 3.8-7.5% off all transaction volume per day, which is around 500-1000BTC/day.

When the price stays the same, we can assume 250-500BTC of Dogecoins are bought or sold in that day. Therefore miners do not make up a large portion of the selling anymore, and they haven't for a while.

Another BIG assumption you have to make is that 38.7BTC cannot move markets.  From my personally observations, the Cryptsy DOGE/BTC market controls the price of Dogecoin.  I have watched the Chinese markets (BTC100, BTC38, BTER) respond to changes in price after they happen on Cryptsy.  ~38BTC can have a HUGE impact on price if buy/sell walls are not there to support it.

We need more demand, but it is nice to have less pressure from miners anyways.

Liquidity is still much much higher with Litecoin though!

Transactions per Day

Dogecoin has more transactions per day Litecoin, and all other altcoins. (http://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/sentbyaddress-ltc-doge.html)

Sent from Addresses

Dogecoin has more unique addresses sending coins per day than Litecoin, and all other altcoins. (http://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-ltc-doge.html)

Average Transaction Value

Average Litecoin transaction value for today was $9,380 USD.

Average Dogecoin transaction value for today was $122 USD.

Average Bitcoin transaction value for today was $3,250 USD.

http://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactionvalue-btc-ltc-doge.html
Dogecoin is potentially being used exactly as intended. Lots of people sending small amounts of money to each other or things.

I am stunned that the AVERAGE person sending Litecoins that day, sent almost $10K.

That is 3x higher than Bitcoin. In fact, oddly, Litecoin always has a higher average transaction value than Bitcoin since the Bitcoin bubble in late 2013. Anybody know why?

We usually DO NOT have higher transaction volumes than Litecoin, but we do consistently have ~500-1000BTC/day that is transacted, putting Dogecoin in the top 5 most traded coins.

Dogecoin Address Growth

Dogecoin has also GAINED 14,653 positive addresses in the month of June, where Litecoin has LOST 33,875. (info from bitinfocharts and /u/currency4world on reddit)

Wikipedia Statistics (http://stats.grok.se/)

Bitcoin traffic – Average ~9000 views in the last 90 days (highest 18614 views/day) – total views/90 days 819,193

Litecoin traffic – Average ~380 views in the last 90 days (highest 998 views/day) – total views/90 days 40,036

Dogecoin traffic – Average ~1200 views in the last 90 days (highest 8629 views/day) – total views/90 days 154,415

Circlejerking Statistics

Bitcoin recently surpassed 1 Yottahash (http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2arfxs/we_surpassed_1_yottahash/), I believe we are up to almost 1 Yottajerk of circlejerking power.  I am excited for a few years from now, when the QuantumJerk ASICs are released.

Every time I read someone calling /r/dogecoin a circlejerk I laugh, not because they are wrong, but because they are just stating the obvious.

Do you think there is someone in the corner of the room at NASA who just comments about how all they talk about is rockets and space?

If dreaming big and congratulating ourselves on our achievements is a circlejerk, then I guess it’s human to circlejerk.  Every subreddit is a circlejerk, the only difference in /r/dogecoin is that you can get tips from circlejerking. (Is that prostitution?)

The main point of this section was to see how many times I could type circlejerk.

Foundation

[The new Dogecoin Foundation is now a legal enitiy and will have a road map of working projects]( http://www.reddit.com/r/dogecoin/comments/29it1m/announcing_new_dogecoin_foundation/)

Personally I would love to see someone from the Chinese Dogecoin community represented on the Foundation.  [They buy and sell a lot of Dogecoins]( http://beta.coinmarketcap.com/currencies/volume/24-hour/#dogecoin) Maybe just a liason position or something.

At the very least, during fundraisers, the Chinese community should be contacted to see if they want to help out!

Development

Dogecoin is the ONLY altcoin with over a $1 Million USD market cap with the Core/Wallet/qt based off of  Bitcoin 0.9.  Dogecoin Core will be kept up to date and features from the Bitcoin Core will be adopted quickly.  [The devs are doing great so far, especially against coins with full-time PAID developers!]( http://www.coingecko.com/)

CrytoSaga

Unprecedented cryptocurrency modeling software will be written to test possible outcomes to changes in Dogecoin’s algorithm.  Main candidates are PoS 2.0, Tendermint, and SIMD.  To my knowledge, this has never been created before in all of cryptocurrency, and will definitely further highlight the abilities of Dogecoin’s development team.

A payment protocol is also being worked on.

Cryptiv

Cryptiv is considering integrating tipping on Wordpress websites and would love to hear the community’s feedback on this next potential platform or if they have any other suggestions?

They will be making some improvements to the site and to the tipping experience on Twitter, Twitch.tv and Youtube based on feedback received from our users and hope to implement and announce these improvements very soon!

Trending page has been announced

Dogetipbot

Twitch tipping with dogetipbot will go live soon! (http://www.reddit.com/r/dogecoin/comments/2asowp/metatron_dogetipbot_and_gaming/) You can sign up to be invited to the beta, here. (http://www.dogetipbot.com/beta/)

After Twitch tipping goes live, there will be a huge announcement (http://www.reddit.com/r/dogecoin/comments/267eqf/of_wolves_and_weasels_day_134_dogecoin_its_on_sale/chocpp5)

I have followed what the creators have said about it, here. (http://www.reddit.com/r/dogecoin/comments/2809cj/which_platforms_do_you_think_dogetipbots_next/)
   
Coingecko

Price might not be so encouraging at the moment, but stay faithful. Keep up the good work. Encourage more people to join. The community is something special. I have strong faith that it will be heading to the moon!

Coinplay.io

http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/kansas-city-startup-incubator-partners-dogecoin-based-coinplay-io/2014/07/09

Suchlist

Optional multi factor authentication. Will start with Google Authenticator and possibly one other for of authentication. This allows a users account to stay safe even if the users password is compromised.

Site moved to 100% SSL encryption. That means that all communication with www.SuchList.com will use HTTPS. Not only when logged in. This makes sure user data and cookies etc stay safe.

Added more user validators (used to validate user provided data). Such as Etsy and LinkedIn.

Adding auction style listings so that someone posting can select that it's an auction and set things like start price, buy now price, end time etc.

Graphical redesign.

SnapCard

[Buy ANYTHING in Dogecoins that is for sale online.]( http://www.reddit.com/r/dogecoin/comments/29ki7h/snapcard_adds_doge_easiest_way_to_buy_anything/) Available in over 50 countries.  Only BTC, LTC, DOGE, and XRP are supported.

WeSellDoges

More than 750 MILLION Dogecoins sold since opening in late April

More than 3500 transactions to more than 2600 Shibes in 66 countries

OKPay/PerfectMoney for non-US based transactions coming soon

Onarbor

The biggest new Onarbor feature announcement is ability to back and re-back works and reviews. This was the top request so we're glad to finally implement it. Coming soon will be more tailored feeds where we will allow people to follow creators that interest them (will allow Twitter/FB/linkedin auth to find friends/colleagues).

What can Dogecoin do better?

Marketing

For a coin that has done some of the best marketing out there, Dogecoin is not the best at getting major announcements across on multiple platforms.

EXAMPLE:

51.54% of Dogecoin users are on Dogecoin Core 1.6.( http://bitinfocharts.com/dogecoin/)

Maybe merchants and such are not to keen on updating if it is not required, but maybe they just do not know about 1.7.

When 1.8 comes out, I would love to see a sticky thread on the subreddit, an announcement on the official Dogecoin Twitter and Facebook pages, an announcement on the front of the BitcoinTalk forum, as well as contacting cryptonews websites.

Dogecoin has a large social media presence and should be taking advantage of THAT! (http://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/tweets-btc-ltc-doge.html)

Dogecoin.com

I know Dogecoin is working on updating this, but the website is COMPLETELY MISSING a section on how to accept Dogecoin.
This should be just as big as the other sections!

ALSO

This should be added to the “Get Dogecoin” section at the bottom of the page. (http://www.reddit.com/r/DogeHelpBot/comments/26c701/can_this_be_added_to_the_dogehelpbot/)

I have tried to keep it updated as much as possible, but would love the community to notify me of any changes.

COMMENTS

Josh Wise

“I have said this to a few people in the community but my two cents on this is to keep it fun, charitable, and stick to the fundamentals that made the community grow so much initially. My personal opinion (and I really have no clue what I am talking about) is that this community grew so fast because it was so much fun, anything seemed possible, everything seemed worth trying and there were not many negative undertones with anything. It seems like people are really getting wrapped up in a lot of negatives right now and that is never productive. The law of attraction will rule in the end and as long as people are positive- no matter the circumstance- the circumstance will become positive. I love this place and wish only the best for dogecoin and the community, and like I said, I have no clue as to all of the intricacies and the many moving parts past and present. Only my two cents on what I see (:

As far as upcoming projects- I am still working on some new shirts by popular demand. I would really love to either race the Dogecoin car in a few SuperSpeedway races next year, or try to raise money so that we can run the rear bumper all season. I am super thankful for all that has come of this and want to continue to help build the brand and awareness in any ways possible. A lot of that is really up to the community though and not me.”

Co-founder (BillyM2K aka Shibetoshi Nakamoto)

“A community that is having fun, building cool things, and coming together for great causes and fun causes alike is exceptionally more valuable than one that is trying desperately to create value by finger pointing, complaining, witch hunting, attempting to market useless features, and ultimately eating itself.”


I hope you all learned something today. I tried really hard to make sure that was the case.


fishy91
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July 16, 2014, 11:19:39 PM
 #2

I heard something about a suggested change in Dogecoin’s algorithm to PoS 2.0, but I was not sure if they had decided or not until I read your post. So it's still up in the air?
thistime (OP)
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July 17, 2014, 12:47:15 AM
 #3

I heard something about a suggested change in Dogecoin’s algorithm to PoS 2.0, but I was not sure if they had decided or not until I read your post. So it's still up in the air?

The earliest any changes will be made is at the static block rewards in January.

No decision will be made until everything is modeled first in CryptoSaga.
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July 17, 2014, 01:04:56 AM
Last edit: July 21, 2014, 05:43:07 PM by jubalix
 #4

when DOGE forks to POS and stops the block reward to a hard cap, or similar a asymtotic cap then it will recover.

The problem is the crowd that understands much wow are orthogonal to those that understand 10K coins per block for ever = % wise less money supply.

Also Mr. J Wise has not helped DOGE's cause as much as he could have.

QED

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https://www.binance.com/?ref=10062065
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July 17, 2014, 01:53:13 AM
 #5


Average Litecoin transaction value for today was $9,380 USD.

Average Dogecoin transaction value for today was $122 USD.

Average Bitcoin transaction value for today was $3,250 USD.





Average dogecoin transaction $122? Is that true? For me Doges are used most for penny transactions.


And nice work, btw
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July 17, 2014, 02:05:13 AM
 #6

Doge is a country not a state

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AliceWonder
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July 17, 2014, 02:44:15 AM
 #7

Rather than compare value to USD could you compare it to Satoshis or {m|u}BTC?

The latter comparison makes more sense to me because not all people use USD and a lot of exchanges that deal with crypto-currencies do not trade in any fiat.

It is pretty clear bitcoin is the leader of the pack in the crypto world, and how a currency compares with btc is actually more meaningful to me than how it compares with btc.

e.g. if dogecoin is falling compared to USD but BTC is falling faster - then in my mind doegcoin is actually going up, not down.

Several of the places that make pretty graphs track altcoins against btc rather than the US dollar, I think that makes more sense and is more meaningful to those trading altcoins.

Just my opinion.

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July 17, 2014, 02:45:11 AM
 #8

I think its about that time to forget the doge, and move on to other cryptos  Cheesy

ill handcuff you to the shower and put an apple in your mouth with the water running on cold then you handcuff me to the bed and go to town.. just dont BURN the house down with your hot ass oven cus i will be dead and you will be gone
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July 17, 2014, 02:50:59 AM
 #9

I think its about that time to forget the doge, and move on to other cryptos  Cheesy


Doge is just too big to forget about.

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July 17, 2014, 02:51:44 AM
 #10

I think its about that time to forget the doge, and move on to other cryptos  Cheesy


Doge is just too big to forget about.

I definitely agree. It has left a mark on the altcoin scene. I don't think it's about to die anytime soon.
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July 17, 2014, 05:46:07 AM
 #11

great post!

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July 17, 2014, 06:02:34 AM
 #12

Dogecoin is a poorly coded clone coin , if they don't merge mine with Litecoin or change algo they will get 51% attacked.

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July 17, 2014, 10:27:16 AM
 #13

Great post indeed, thank you, thistime  Cheesy
It's always nice to see how someone from community does deep research and constructs it into educational post like this one.
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July 17, 2014, 11:17:06 AM
 #14

Dogecoin is a poorly coded clone coin , if they don't merge mine with Litecoin or change algo they will get 51% attacked.

Aren't most altcoins vulnerable for a 51% attack considering how low the relative hashrates are?
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July 17, 2014, 11:56:27 AM
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I think its about that time to forget the doge, and move on to other cryptos  Cheesy


Doge is just too big to forget about.

I definitely agree. It has left a mark on the altcoin scene. I don't think it's about to die anytime soon.

Doge isn't dead yet, but it is slowly dying in my opinion...

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July 17, 2014, 12:06:14 PM
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dogecoin and litecoin is both dieing slowly..
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July 17, 2014, 01:17:24 PM
 #17

Dogecoin is a poorly coded clone coin , if they don't merge mine with Litecoin or change algo they will get 51% attacked.

Aren't most altcoins vulnerable for a 51% attack considering how low the relative hashrates are?

I don't know about most, but the ones that aren't CPU only mine are probably more vulnerable than others.

Dogecoin was a joke, unless it has a reason to exist after joke then it is dead.

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July 17, 2014, 05:57:28 PM
 #18

i dont see bright future for doge, sorry. Not interesting anymore. It was more like a meme and we know how meme goes out of fashion.

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July 17, 2014, 06:03:15 PM
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Some time ago I was interested in this DogeCoin but now after some huge loses I never like this again because its going to dying very soon

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July 17, 2014, 06:20:19 PM
 #20

Dogecoin is a poorly coded clone coin , if they don't merge mine with Litecoin or change algo they will get 51% attacked.

Aren't most altcoins vulnerable for a 51% attack considering how low the relative hashrates are?

Dogecoin's block rewards halve to fast making it extremely unprofitable to mine. The chance of getting 51% are high.

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