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Author Topic: theoretically there are 21 mil btcs, in reality, many bitcoins are lost  (Read 2062 times)
mkc
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July 19, 2014, 05:58:21 AM
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I mean, many bitcoins exist in block chain, but nobody in the world knows their private key. They are in a unspendable state. Anyone has a guess how many these coins are?
From economy point of view, a healthy currency should grow its supply at the small rate, to reflect more human output, and not inflate itself. Bitcoin is a deflationary currency, and the rate of deflation probably greater than we think.
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July 19, 2014, 06:15:01 AM
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There are several threads on this already. There is a main thread that has confirmed some of the lost btc. Several cases had a hefty amount lost.

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July 19, 2014, 06:28:22 AM
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How bitcoins can be lost? I mean if people who have some are lost, dead, or just without an Internet it doesn't mean that a lot of bitcoins are unavailable - don't forget that bitcoin system have a commission mechanism!

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devphp
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July 19, 2014, 06:48:24 AM
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There are some estimates that between 500 000 - 1 000 000 bitcoins can be considered lost.
However, Bitcoin is still in double-digit yearly inflation, adding 3600 new Bitcoins every day to the supply, can't call it deflationary.

It's safe to assume that from now and into the future the number of lost Bitcoins will not increase very much, because in the past people didn't think much of Bitcoins and formatted drives without thinking twice.
So, let's assume 1 mln of Bitcoins will be lost out of 21 mln, that leaves 20 mln. useable max cap.
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July 19, 2014, 06:53:32 AM
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It's safe to assume that from now and into the future the number of lost Bitcoins will not increase very much, because in the past people didn't think much of Bitcoins and formatted drives without thinking twice.

I agree with this very much. LOL
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July 19, 2014, 06:54:03 AM
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There are some estimates that between 500 000 - 1 000 000 bitcoins can be considered lost.
However, Bitcoin is still in double-digit yearly inflation, adding 3600 new Bitcoins every day to the supply, can't call it deflationary.

It's safe to assume that from now and into the future the number of lost Bitcoins will not increase very much, because in the past people didn't think much of Bitcoins and formatted drives without thinking twice.
So, let's assume 1 mln of Bitcoins will be lost out of 21 mln, that leaves 20 mln. useable max cap.
Advances in technology over time may potentially make it easier to recover some of these lost bitcoin.

As long as you have the physical hard drive that the wallet/private key was/is stored on then you potentially can recover the lost bitcoin. If you have thrown away the hard drive or the hard drive is otherwise destroyed then the bitcoin would likely be lost forever.
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July 19, 2014, 07:24:59 AM
 #7

Theoretically there are 0-fucks given.  </game>

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July 19, 2014, 07:38:36 AM
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There are several threads on this already. There is a main thread that has confirmed some of the lost btc. Several cases had a hefty amount lost.

Do you have a link to this thread? How could this be "confirmed" without someone signing a transaction from the inaccessible address?! Tongue I would be curious to know how much is "lost" to ponder how it affects supply in the case of price discovery.
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July 19, 2014, 07:49:52 AM
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Personally I think the more bitcoin that gets lost the higher the value should go. I say this because there is less to go around. If we are all sharing a piece of big pie that has 19million slices it is certainly worth more then the same pie that has 21million slices.

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Marbit
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July 19, 2014, 07:50:53 AM
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Personally I think the more bitcoin that gets lost the higher the value should go. I say this because there is less to go around. If we are all sharing a piece of big pie that has 19million slices it is certainly worth more then the same pie that has 21million slices.

Naturally. Supply and demand and all that. What did Satoshi say about lost coins? Something about a gift to the rest of us. Grin
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July 19, 2014, 07:58:44 AM
 #11

I doubt we'll have as significant losses as we have had in the past considering that people are more aware of the value of Bitcoin rather than it being a worthless piece of data on your drives. It's the same with wallets, you would check the contents before you chucked it out to make sure you don't have any cash in there. Aside from claims, there is no verifiable means of proving that the coins are in an address where the private key is unknown.
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July 19, 2014, 08:02:11 AM
 #12

I suppose the more lost coins the better for us!
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July 19, 2014, 08:04:14 AM
 #13

Does not matter.

1 bitcoin could be used for the economy of a small country.

First seastead company actually selling sea homes: Ocean Builders https://ocean.builders  Of course we accept bitcoin.
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July 19, 2014, 08:46:55 AM
Last edit: July 19, 2014, 09:02:52 AM by qwerty555
 #14

Does not matter.

1 bitcoin could be used for the economy of a small country.

+1

100 million satoshis to a bitcoin...consider for example 1 satashoi eventually getting to $1  1 bitcoin would then = $100 Million or large enough for a small economy.

It is obvious that if ever it starts to come close to that value in the distant future.. the satoshi itself will probably be divisible to however many decimal places is required

Here's one of the threads where the issue is discussed from 2011

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4020.20

What the OP is talking about here would likely take hundreds of years to happen.  BitCoins aren't going to leach out of the system that fast.  Besides, if BitCoins succeed I bet it will only be 5 or 10 years before someone else starts another digital currency akin to BitCoins.  It is likely that if Crypto Currency takes off you will have several different ones competing with each other and so the whole world won't have to exclusively use BitCoins.

Adding another decimal place to the RIGHT of the zero isn't inflation.  1 BTC will still be 1 BTC, you simply will be able to use smaller portions of it in your transactions.
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July 19, 2014, 10:38:30 AM
 #15

100 million satoshis to a bitcoin...consider for example 1 satashoi eventually getting to $1  1 bitcoin would then = $100 Million or large enough for a small economy.

haha, dream big! Only if USD turns into Zimbabwe dollar, which is a possibility.
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July 19, 2014, 11:29:04 AM
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I know that someday there will be lots of people including me looking through old drives and long forgotten websites searching for that 4 or 5 satoshi that might be still there
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July 19, 2014, 12:40:39 PM
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100 million satoshis to a bitcoin...consider for example 1 satashoi eventually getting to $1  1 bitcoin would then = $100 Million or large enough for a small economy.

haha, dream big! Only if USD turns into Zimbabwe dollar, which is a possibility.

LOL  I do not expect that to happen in my/our lifetimes but in a few hundred years? maybe..maybe not as there may be something totally different..in the future and my crystal ball is in need of repair

However the UK average wage for working folk 300 yrs ago was   approx 15 pounds a year..In 2013 it was 26,500 pounds a year almost a 2.000 fold increase

http://www.johnhearfield.com/History/Breadt.htm


If a bitcoin would follow a similar path ..in 300 yrs it would be 2,000 times its current $ value ( $120,000 or equivalent ,assuming the dollar still exists which I doubt ) . The difference being is that the bitcoin price has not yet stabilized for the comparison so we will wait and see (probably about 5 yrs at current adoption rate) what level that will be.
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July 19, 2014, 12:44:15 PM
 #18

I mean, many bitcoins exist in block chain, but nobody in the world knows their private key. They are in a unspendable state. Anyone has a guess how many these coins are?
From economy point of view, a healthy currency should grow its supply at the small rate, to reflect more human output, and not inflate itself. Bitcoin is a deflationary currency, and the rate of deflation probably greater than we think.

Yes, when u think about it, its pretty scary how deflationary bitcoin is.
Alot of coins generated in the start were lost/forgotten, and with each new day, u probably have some new cases of loosing coins.

While the actual accurate data is a mistery, im happy with deflation; it makes bitcoin even more rare, and i believe that is a good thing.

Cheers
Cryptopher
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July 19, 2014, 12:48:00 PM
 #19

Oh boy, it's this discussion again. This point holds for any limited resource.

I think that either DannyHamilton or DeathAndTaxes gave a pretty reasonable explanation into this whole economic edge to the limited supply dwindling, though there's no way that I'm likely to find it.
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July 19, 2014, 12:50:35 PM
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I mean, many bitcoins exist in block chain, but nobody in the world knows their private key. They are in a unspendable state. Anyone has a guess how many these coins are?
From economy point of view, a healthy currency should grow its supply at the small rate, to reflect more human output, and not inflate itself. Bitcoin is a deflationary currency, and the rate of deflation probably greater than we think.

Yes, when u think about it, its pretty scary how deflationary bitcoin is.
Alot of coins generated in the start were lost/forgotten, and with each new day, u probably have some new cases of loosing coins.

While the actual accurate data is a mistery, im happy with deflation; it makes bitcoin even more rare, and i believe that is a good thing.

Cheers


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